Predictions?

[bachman]

First ppm book. Who goes, who stays, who wins, who loses.

 

[surfdude]

The first month for Raleigh has been released to subscribing stations.
No big surprises. Almost every station has a larger audience (cume) than in the diary method.

 

[bachman]

I know it has. That is why I thought we could share predictions for the first full book.

 

[Hourly]

Each month is now a "book" unto itself. The July numbers will actually become what Arbitron calls currency in October, so you have a peak at the book now. Don't expect a lot of difference in the months ahead. The big cumers will stay in the top 10 and will cluster around the top based on TSL ups and downs. Some cume infusion from football can be expected but I think you can be pretty certain the top 10 now will be the top 10 in October unless someone changes format or direction. All the fun of predicting is pretty much over. And with a new book every month it won't much matter what someone did 30 days ago.

 

[quadraphonic]

Will local advertisers be able to keep up with this hectic flurry of monthly reports?
Or will it all fall back to national?

 

[realradioplayer]

agencies go through training on how to buy w/ PPM and aside from "Christmas Music" and Format changes they are trained to use 3 monthly surveys .... any sales rep that encourages their clients to do anything less aside from Christmas and format changes is doing their client a dis-service.

 

[Hourly]

"agencies go through training on how to buy w/ PPM and aside from "Christmas Music" and Format changes they are trained to use 3 monthly surveys .... any sales rep that encourages their clients to do anything less aside from Christmas and format changes is doing their client a dis-service"

Actually they go through about three hours of Arbitron PPM "training" and then go back to the way they have always done business. Agencies are ultimately "trained" to manipulate the books and data in the way that best serves their pricing needs. They will buy monthly, qurarterly, two-book, three-book, whatever it takes to get the stations in the worst possible position of negotiation. It is why beer and soda business is always bought on fall books when the schedules air in the summertime. Younger demographic listening is lower in the fall, so agencies use the lower ratings to hammer stations on summer business. Sales reps rarely "encourage" clients to do anything. With few exceptions, the clients get what they want from weak kneed reps who have no management support and are instructed by their bosses to "get the business no matter what it takes." You can bet agencies will default to the worst recent "month" when looking to negotiate with a station. PPM is not good for radio sellers.