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Problems with the last trend, Entravision News, Indie will stay put

C

creativegenius

Funny how the dialogue here is only positive about the recent trend as long as it didn't impact my collegues at Univision as Mr. Eduardo hasn't mentioned anything or has any one been "allowed" to challenge his "interpretations" and "opinions". And I will add, keep in mind those who read his rants, they are his asserations, opinions, and interpretations. Leave it at that.

Here are some facts about the last L.A. ratings trend I will reveal to those interested...

The July trend brought in 2,306 diaries, that number was the lowest in-tab since Winter / Jan. '05. Bottom line, the sampling was way short.(that's a period!) In terms diaries short, the number was 174 out of the sample target of 2,480 diaries. The term "others" for certain specific diaries turned up WAY short this trend, the lowest return on "others" diaries since late WINTER 04'.

For small, niche format stations, those missing diaries can make or break your existence, well almost. In other words, it hurts to not have a healthy sample come back in.

Did this impact the weighting of the trend?? You bet. Some stations got slammed. Just ask my buds at SBS and Entravision. (insert Eduardos assertions to the contrary here then backed up by Moderator Richards)

A merger is in the works with one broadcaster mentioned here, and it's not Eduardo's.

Indie 103.1 is not going anywhere and the death march is being sung by only one lonely naysayer, Mr. Eduardo. The trend problem is the reason for the error in it's ranking. Take this from someone in the know, Indie is staying put for sure, there will be some "news" involving the station shortly.

BTW, KROQ's ratings are the worst they have been in years and that's no wobble, gobble!<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by creativegenius on 08/29/05 07:19 PM.</FONT></P>
 
Re: No problems in the last trend.

> Funny how the dialogue here is only positive about the
> recent trend as long as it didn't impact my collegues at
> Univision as Mr. Eduardo hasn't mentioned anything or has
> any one been "allowed" to challenge his "interpretations"
> and "opinions". And I will add, keep in mind those who read
> his rants, they are his asserations, opinions, and
> interpretations. Leave it at that.

Sample problems affect everyone. However, there is no significant sample issue in the trend.

The May June July trend had 7140 diaries in tab.

The May June July trend from 2004 had 7170 diaries in tab.

There is no "interpretation" in reading a sample report.

> Here are some facts about the last L.A. ratings trend I will
> reveal to those interested...
>
> The July trend brought in 2,306 diaries, that number was the
> lowest in-tab since Winter / Jan. '05.

With a sample target of 7250 diaries, that number is only a couple of percent below target for one phase. However, Arbitron does not promise proportionality in single months or phases.

The average would be 2,416 diaries per 4-week phase. There is no way to hit this number precisely each time. This is why Arbitron undoubtedly added a few extra diaries in Phase II as soon as they saw indications that returns were on the low side. The same thing happens every Summer book.

> Bottom line, the
> sampling was way short.(that's a period!)

Statistically, it is not significant as the total tend (12 weeks) was within range.

> In terms diaries
> short, the number was 174 out of the sample
> target of 2,480 diaries. The term
> "others" for certain specific diaries turned up WAY short
> this trend, the lowest return on "others" diaries since late
> WINTER 04'.

The fact is that the sample target for the trend was met. Arbitron does not do monthly ratings, and cautions against extrapolations. In Phase I, they learn where the balancing has to be done in phases II and III, and they adjust the recruit accordingly. In addition, there is limited weighting across portions of two books (as in a trend)

2480 is the high side of the sample quota. We have seen a bit over 7500 in one trend, and as low as 7150. The range is within the promise to clients.

BAsed on the average trend or book diary count, the last one was about 3% below the median. In a poll of this size, 3% is meaningless. In any case, high or low tides float all ships up or down... it is not like saying that all of Indie's diaries were in those 80 diaries below the mean.
>
> For small, niche format stations, those missing diaries can
> make or break your existence, well almost. In other words,
> it hurts to not have a healthy sample come back in.

Except for the fact that the sample is within range. In Arbitron, sample size is arbitrary and based on what the subscribers in a market agree on. The PPDV in LA is at the higer range, in fact. If staitons want lower cost, they could have kept the desired quota around 5000... or spent more and gone to 10,000. To change the one standard error range, we would need to go to 30 thousand diaries on the high side, or 3,600 on the low side. A few diaries up or down does not change anything.

> Did this impact the weighting of the trend?? You bet. Some
> stations got slammed.

Trends, as they include pieces from two books, are minimally weighted.

> Just ask my buds at SBS and
> Entravision. (insert Eduardos assertions to the contrary
> here then backed up by Moderator Richards)

SBS did not get slammed by diary returns. KXOL was up, KLAX was off due to programming issues.

Entravision is simply living the life of an owner with a small signal and a format that has recently been sliced and diced by improvement at KROQ and the arrival of Jack. There is no difference here from the huge wobbles KRCD/KRCV " enjoy" from trend to trend. In fact, KLVE can vary from a 3.8 to a 5.1 from one month to another. This is why Arbitron, as I said, cautions about using monthly extraps except for guidance.
>
> A merger is in the works with one broadcaster mentioned
> here, and it's not Eduardo's.

SBS reportedly has a condition for acquisition or merger in its deal with Infinity. However, in most markets, they would have to spin stations.

Entravision is selling radio stations, in case you had not noticed.
>
> Indie 103.1 is not going anywhere and the death march is
> being sung by only one lonely naysayer, Mr. Eduardo. The
> trend problem is the reason for the error in it's ranking.
> Take this from someone in the know, Indie is staying put for
> sure, there will be some "news" involving the station
> shortly.

The news is that the cash flow can not possibly look good based on the price paid. Like all public companies, Entravision has a board. I would immagine they are looking all the time at the best use of their asset base.
>
> BTW, KROQ's ratings are the worst they have been in years
> and that's no wobble, gobble!

This has been discussed... and looking at the sharing with Jack, we think it should be obvious why. Over a quarter of KROQ's listeners share with Jack, and that does not take into account any who may have actually left KROQ.
 
> Funny how the dialogue here is only positive about the
> recent trend as long as it didn't impact my collegues at
> Univision as Mr. Eduardo hasn't mentioned anything or has
> any one been "allowed" to challenge his "interpretations"
> and "opinions". And I will add, keep in mind those who read
> his rants, they are his asserations, opinions, and
> interpretations. Leave it at that.
>
> Here are some facts about the last L.A. ratings trend I will
> reveal to those interested...
>
> The July trend brought in 2,306 diaries, that number was the
> lowest in-tab since Winter / Jan. '05. Bottom line, the
> sampling was way short.(that's a period!) In terms diaries
> short, the number was 174 out of the sample
> target of 2,480 diaries. The term
> "others" for certain specific diaries turned up WAY short
> this trend, the lowest return on "others" diaries since late
> WINTER 04'.

First off, I want to see I hope Indie does succeed. It's non-traditional thinking and I feel radio needs more of this. Now, while those diary return shortage numbers are correct, my concern for Indie is the following:

80% of their diaries come from five region breakouts in the L.A. metro:
In July, most of those areas were not shorted on diary returns.

However, the fact that KDLE did not show up at all was odd. I think it is unfair to make any judgment about any station because of one odd month. Every station in L.A. is affected by wobbles. Class A's affected more than others.



>
> For small, niche format stations, those missing diaries can
> make or break your existence, well almost. In other words,
> it hurts to not have a healthy sample come back in.
>
> Did this impact the weighting of the trend?? You bet. Some
> stations got slammed. Just ask my buds at SBS and
> Entravision. (insert Eduardos assertions to the contrary
> here then backed up by Moderator Richards)
>
> A merger is in the works with one broadcaster mentioned
> here, and it's not Eduardo's.
>
> Indie 103.1 is not going anywhere and the death march is
> being sung by only one lonely naysayer, Mr. Eduardo. The
> trend problem is the reason for the error in it's ranking.
> Take this from someone in the know, Indie is staying put for
> sure, there will be some "news" involving the station
> shortly.
>
> BTW, KROQ's ratings are the worst they have been in years
> and that's no wobble, gobble!

KROQ's July was actually it's best 12+ month since February - and one of their better 25-54 months in quite some time. They had a few months where they were off, but they started off the summer strong. Keep in mind also, KROQ's declines may be related to increased numbers at "Jack."

So, don't shoot the messenger. I am one who hopes Indie can perform well to show niche programming can succeed. I just wanted to show the other "real numbers."
 
It'll make more sense on 8/31

That's the day David and KM will have to eat some crow.
With all due respect. What I've been saying is going to happen.


> > Funny how the dialogue here is only positive about the
> > recent trend as long as it didn't impact my collegues at
> > Univision as Mr. Eduardo hasn't mentioned anything or has
> > any one been "allowed" to challenge his "interpretations"
> > and "opinions". And I will add, keep in mind those who
> read
> > his rants, they are his asserations, opinions, and
 
Re: It'll make more sense on 8/31

> That's the day David and KM will have to eat some crow.
> With all due respect. What I've been saying is going to
> happen.

Here is the situation. Only once in the last 10 to 12 years has a trend been reissued, and it did not have to do with sample or rank.

That said, a serious error such as Arbitron discovering it had an error in the slogan tool or in ascription procedures might cause a reissue in theory if the internal error was such that it materially caused a change in the ranking of stations.

First, I would be looking at whether Indie's tinkering with the Orange County signal to reduce its coverage to the north affected its diary returns.

Then I would look at whether the trailing cume on the OC signal was such that ascription went almost entirely to KDLD.

Generally, Arbitron advises clients in advance of a reissue, telling them the new data will be available for download at a certain time and date, somethig which has not happened.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> That's the day David and KM will have to eat some crow.
> With all due respect. What I've been saying is going to
> happen.

Arbitron is reposting the numbers. They are not reissuing them. Apparently, Entravision failed to fill in the SIP indicating a simulcast of KDLD and KDLE. This caused the MRS for SINGLE STATIONS to be used, as I indicated. In fact, I posted the entire MRS qualification statement form Arbitron.

The part about the re-posting of Phase 1 Summer trends is true, The reason for the re-posting is that KDLD/KDLE was originally treated as non-simulcast. As such, the stations had to meet Minimum Reporting Standards (MRS.) on their own and KDLE did not qualify to be listed in the report. Rhey are now treating them as simulcast and the MRS threshold is therefore not as high.

As I mentioned, alone, KDLE did not meet MRS. But, those of us with Arbitron software could make a combo. And that combo included the small (below 0.3) share of KDLE along with the already reported share of KDLD which is what can be seen online at R&R or All Access.

In other words, nothing changed. Nothing at all. An error by the station in repporting its simulcast was corrected, and the results reposted, not redissued. Reissuing means that there was a material change in the results. Rep0sting means there is no change in the numbers, and the effect is cosmentic, not having to do with the underlying data.

In other words, the results have not been retabulated or restated.

And there is absolutely no sample problem. There have been no discussions at Arbitron about the July sample nor weighting issues. The re-posting has nothing to do with anything related to the sample or tabulations. The re-posting is strictly related to the manner in which KDLE/KDLD are treated as simulcast, and totally cosmetic.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> > That's the day David and KM will have to eat some crow.
> > With all due respect. What I've been saying is going to
> > happen.
>
> Arbitron is reposting the numbers. They are not reissuing
> them. Apparently, Entravision failed to fill in the SIP
> indicating a simulcast of KDLD and KDLE. This caused the MRS
> for SINGLE STATIONS to be used, as I indicated. In fact, I
> posted the entire MRS qualification statement form Arbitron.
>
>
> The part about the re-posting of Phase 1 Summer trends is
> true, The reason for the re-posting is that KDLD/KDLE was
> originally treated as non-simulcast. As such, the stations
> had to meet Minimum Reporting Standards (MRS.) on their own
> and KDLE did not qualify to be listed in the report. Rhey
> are now treating them as simulcast and the MRS threshold is
> therefore not as high.

There, Freddy. You are technically right, but not in the way that you stated.

The trend will be reposted, but <u>not</u> because of an error in the data; rather, because of an error that <u>Entravision</u> made in filling out Arbitron paperwork.

The numbers will not change, which means you are essentially <u>wrong</u>. AGAIN.

Would you like my helping of crow? I won't be eating it.

{moderator mode on}
Freddy, if you start one more clueless thread about Indie, its ratings, or its chances for success, I will personally request that the owners ban you. It is so painfully clear that you have little or no support from the other posters that I can take such action in defense of the clear majority of the regulars. (And I have the support of the other moderators on this as well.)
{moderator mode off}<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

>
> The trend will be reposted, but not because of an error in
> the data; rather, because of an error that Entravision made
> in filling out Arbitron paperwork.

I have confirmed, again, with Arbitron that KDLE and KDLD filled in thier peperwork wrong, and Arbitron, which is not as customer unfriendly as some feel, is correcting the client's mistake.
>
> The numbers will not change, which means you are essentially
> wrong. AGAIN.

Amen.
 
> Funny how the dialogue here is only positive about the
> recent trend as long as it didn't impact my collegues at
> Univision as Mr. Eduardo hasn't mentioned anything or has
> any one been "allowed" to challenge his "interpretations"
> and "opinions". And I will add, keep in mind those who read
> his rants, they are his asserations, opinions, and
> interpretations. Leave it at that.
>
> Here are some facts about the last L.A. ratings trend I will
> reveal to those interested...
>
> The July trend brought in 2,306 diaries, that number was the
> lowest in-tab since Winter / Jan. '05.

I have spoken with Arbitron. There is no sample problem. The sample is totally within range. You are inventing this issue.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> >
> > The trend will be reposted, but not because of an error in
>
> > the data; rather, because of an error that Entravision
> made
> > in filling out Arbitron paperwork.
>
> I have confirmed, again, with Arbitron that KDLE and KDLD
> filled in thier peperwork wrong, and Arbitron, which is not
> as customer unfriendly as some feel, is correcting the
> client's mistake.
> >
> > The numbers will not change, which means you are
> essentially
> > wrong. AGAIN.
>
> Amen.
>
So do they go up 12+ - if they have a 0.1 or 0.2 - that will help them?
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> > >
> > > The trend will be reposted, but not because of an error
> in
> >
> > > the data; rather, because of an error that Entravision
> > made
> > > in filling out Arbitron paperwork.
> >
> > I have confirmed, again, with Arbitron that KDLE and KDLD
> > filled in thier peperwork wrong, and Arbitron, which is
> not
> > as customer unfriendly as some feel, is correcting the
> > client's mistake.
> > >
> > > The numbers will not change, which means you are
> > essentially
> > > wrong. AGAIN.
> >
> > Amen.
> >
> So do they go up 12+ - if they have a 0.1 or 0.2 - that will
> help them?

No, they did not go up. Anyone looking at the combo in Arbitrends already saw the share (less than a 1, a tiny bit above a half-point). The only change is that KDLE shows alone, as well as when a combo is made.

They are still 40% below a 1 share.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

The number that Arb had issued for Indie left those without additional software, like you David, to believe that Indie's numbers were 50% lower than what they actually are.

That false perception can be damaging when the sales staff takes to the streets. Try to explain to a buyer that the numbers are actually 50% higher than what Arb is showing.

Much easier when Arb comes out and says here are the full numbers for KDLD/KDLE.

So, Like I had been saying, they did indeed only fall one tenth of a point and that is the second best showing yet for Indie.

I'm right and I get an admonition. I do not believe that is appropriate.

I don't believe the tread was clueless at all. It was a real issue with a result that reflected my insight.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

Yes, that would be the paperowrk mistake that I had refred to in earlier posts.

The final number posted by Arb will show a .3 increase for the pair. That
is extremely significant for that particular station.


> >
> > The trend will be reposted, but not because of an error in
>
> > the data; rather, because of an error that Entravision
> made
> > in filling out Arbitron paperwork.
>
> I have confirmed, again, with Arbitron that KDLE and KDLD
> filled in thier peperwork wrong, and Arbitron, which is not
> as customer unfriendly as some feel, is correcting the
> client's mistake.
> >
> > The numbers will not change, which means you are
> essentially
> > wrong. AGAIN.
>
> Amen.
>
<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by Fab4Freddy on 08/31/05 03:40 AM.</FONT></P>
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

Here I think you are mistaken David.

Why would Arb go to the bother of reposting it if it made no statistical difference?

The reason this has been an issue is that, KDLE by itself falls below the threshold to make the book, combined with KDLD it shows that the pair dropped a tenth.

This is what we will see tomorrow.

The number you are sighting (Just above half a share) is KDLD alone, without the KDLE numbers.




The > > > >
> > > > The trend will be reposted, but not because of an
> error
> > in
> > >
> > > > the data; rather, because of an error that Entravision
>
> > > made
> > > > in filling out Arbitron paperwork.
> > >
> > > I have confirmed, again, with Arbitron that KDLE and
> KDLD
> > > filled in thier peperwork wrong, and Arbitron, which is
> > not
> > > as customer unfriendly as some feel, is correcting the
> > > client's mistake.
> > > >
> > > > The numbers will not change, which means you are
> > > essentially
> > > > wrong. AGAIN.
> > >
> > > Amen.
> > >
> > So do they go up 12+ - if they have a 0.1 or 0.2 - that
> will
> > help them?
>
> No, they did not go up. Anyone looking at the combo in
> Arbitrends already saw the share (less than a 1, a tiny bit
> above a half-point). The only change is that KDLE shows
> alone, as well as when a combo is made.
>
> They are still 40% below a 1 share.
>
 
Re: It was a mistake by Indie.

> The number that Arb had issued for Indie left those without
> additional software, like you David, to believe that Indie's
> numbers were 50% lower than what they actually are.

The numbers issue to the press are not used by radio programmers, managers and sellers. They are not agency buyers, planners and advertising marketing executives. All of these people had the correct data all along.

When a station or a combo is hovering halfway between a 1 share and a 0 share, 50% is not much. Half of nothing is still nothing. As I have explained, the top LA stations wobble from month to month by more than the total share of Indie in combo. I will repeat again... KLVE has wobbled in the last 8 months between a 5.1 and a 3.8 yet the station feels the numbers are very stable.
>
> That false perception can be damaging when the sales staff
> takes to the streets. Try to explain to a buyer that the
> numbers are actually 50% higher than what Arb is showing.

No buyer reads R&R. R&R is a music and programming magazine. It has song charts, not sales data.

In general, the shares published in the press are for the general public that wishes to know sort of what is going on. Advertisers do not look at 12+ numbers. Sellers had the right numbers all along.

And, most important, the issue was cause d by Indie, which failed to submit the right info to Arbitron. The Arbitron folks in Columbia are not prescient. They took the data sent by Indie at face value, and then went the extra step to correct Indie's mistake.
>
> Much easier when Arb comes out and says here are the full
> numbers for KDLD/KDLE.

Every buyer, every station, every agency had the right numbers all along by means of the Trends software.
>
> So, Like I had been saying, they did indeed only fall one
> tenth of a point and that is the second best showing yet for
> Indie.

No, WRONG. This is the worst level they have been at ever. I went back 14 months, and the combo showing for July was the lowest ever. In fact, it is over 60% below the peak level.
>
> I'm right and I get an admonition. I do not believe that is
> appropriate.

You are not right. You are wrong. None of your facts are correct. Your interpretation of who gets trends and how they are used is wrong. Your understanding of the numbers is wrong. Please stop.
>
> I don't believe the tread was clueless at all. It was a real
> issue with a result that reflected my insight.
>
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> Yes, that would be the paperowrk mistake that I had refred
> to in earlier posts.

But you made us believe it was an Arbitron mistake. It was, in fact, an Arbitron mistake... and Arbitron was under no obligation to do anything.
>
> The final number posted by Arb will show a .3 increase for
> the pair. That
> is extremely significant for that particular station.

It will show a 0.2 change in the combo. Where did you think a 0.3 came from? When a combo share is created, the shares, to the hundredths, are added and rounded. For this reason, a 0.4 and a 0.4 may produce a combo share of 0.7 because both shares were rounded up individually, but do not combine for a 0.8.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> Here I think you are mistaken David.

Not this time. You see, after reading your nonsense, I called Arbitron to get a better explanation. I am responsible for many programming and research aspects for 7 or 8 simulcasts, so I wanted to make sure I was not missing something.
>
> Why would Arb go to the bother of reposting it if it made no
> statistical difference?

They did it to be kind to a subscriber. Statistically, within the margin of error, a 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and a 0.7 and a 0.8 are all the same number. Since no advertiser buys by the numbers on a below-one-share station, it is irrelevant.
>
> The reason this has been an issue is that, KDLE by itself
> falls below the threshold to make the book, combined with
> KDLD it shows that the pair dropped a tenth.

Actually, you are so far off that you are amazing. July numbers (month, not trend) will be seen as over a share below June levels. The June levels are real, Arbitron actual month numbers from Maximiser.
>
> This is what we will see tomorrow.

Actually, this is not what we will see.
>
> The number you are sighting (Just above half a share) is
> KDLD alone, without the KDLE numbers.

I did not see the number. That would be a "sighting." I was "citing" a number. The number I was citing is the combo. KDLD alone is below a half-share point. KDLE will add half that again, to be just over a half share point.

The only sighting here is the appearance of incessant inaccurate posts.

You really ought to quit now.
 
Re: It was a mistake by Indie.

> > The number that Arb had issued for Indie left those
> without
> > additional software, like you David, to believe that
> Indie's
> > numbers were 50% lower than what they actually are.
>
> The numbers issue to the press are not used by radio
> programmers, managers and sellers. They are not agency
> buyers, planners and advertising marketing executives. All
> of these people had the correct data all along.
>
> When a station or a combo is hovering halfway between a 1
> share and a 0 share, 50% is not much. Half of nothing is
> still nothing. As I have explained, the top LA stations
> wobble from month to month by more than the total share of
> Indie in combo. I will repeat again... KLVE has wobbled in
> the last 8 months between a 5.1 and a 3.8 yet the station
> feels the numbers are very stable.
> >
> > That false perception can be damaging when the sales staff
>
> > takes to the streets. Try to explain to a buyer that the
> > numbers are actually 50% higher than what Arb is showing.
>
> No buyer reads R&R. R&R is a music and programming magazine.
> It has song charts, not sales data.
>
> In general, the shares published in the press are for the
> general public that wishes to know sort of what is going on.
> Advertisers do not look at 12+ numbers. Sellers had the
> right numbers all along.
>
> And, most important, the issue was cause d by Indie, which
> failed to submit the right info to Arbitron. The Arbitron
> folks in Columbia are not prescient. They took the data sent
> by Indie at face value, and then went the extra step to
> correct Indie's mistake.
> >
> > Much easier when Arb comes out and says here are the full
> > numbers for KDLD/KDLE.
>
> Every buyer, every station, every agency had the right
> numbers all along by means of the Trends software.
> >
> > So, Like I had been saying, they did indeed only fall one
> > tenth of a point and that is the second best showing yet
> for
> > Indie.
>
> No, WRONG. This is the worst level they have been at ever. I
> went back 14 months, and the combo showing for July was the
> lowest ever. In fact, it is over 60% below the peak level.
> >
> > I'm right and I get an admonition. I do not believe that
> is
> > appropriate.
>
> You are not right. You are wrong. None of your facts are
> correct. Your interpretation of who gets trends and how they
> are used is wrong. Your understanding of the numbers is
> wrong. Please stop.
> >
> > I don't believe the tread was clueless at all. It was a
> real
> > issue with a result that reflected my insight.
> >
>


The good news - a lot of this garbage should be alleviated in spring 2006 - when we will get one line item for each station.
 
Re: It was a mistake by Indie.

>
> The good news - a lot of this garbage should be alleviated
> in spring 2006 - when we will get one line item for each
> station.
>

Stations can select whether to be shown as a combo or as two stations.

Unfortunately, Arbitron can not show trombos or larger. Only two station simulcasts. One top 20 market has about 10 trombos, and several with four or more simulcast signals.
 
Re: trend repost, not reissue.

> I'm right and I get an admonition. I do not believe that is
> appropriate.

Doesn't matter, Freddy. The owners have decided you're toast due to your disruptive and annoying behavior.

You were warned, many times. You chose instead to continue your "I'm right, you're wrong" posts, which annoyed a LOT of people. Their complaints led to the owners (NOT the moderators, the OWNERS) taking action against you.<P ID="signature">______________


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