ouuc said:
I am now in a media-related business. I worked for 25 years as an air talent, programmer, music director, and station manager. Certainly not hall of fame material, but I held my own and was successful. I haven't been an owner, but that is not an exclusive club.
In the next few years, there will be a huge migration away from terrestrial music radio. The young are already forcing this issue. As older people start to catch up to the technology, you will see listeners get sucked away like a vacuum. New and established musicians are already bypassing radio and debuting songs and entire CDs on web sites like AOL and MySpace. With all kinds of new content becoming available on players and cell phones, radio will assume a lower position on the media rung. This will also be true with information. People will not wait for the top-of-the hour news or the sports breaks every 20 minutes on sports radio. They will go on the web to get instant headlines, weather, scores, stock prices, traffic, etc. Many will have this downloaded to their cell phones, PDAs and in-car displays.
I'm not begging for anything to happen. I'm making a prediction based on what I know. Read and listen to media experts. And the people. It doesn't sound like it could happen, but watch. Traditional media outlets are scared bleepless, laying off people and cutting deals with websites and cell phone companies to provide content.
As an owner, I wonder what you think your properties will be worth in 10-15 years. You might want to sell now, before the bottom drops out.
THANK YOU ouuc for reinforcing one of the most difficult decisions I ever had to make. Our backgrounds are nearly identical except I
was an owner/operator--for nearly ten years... And believe me--if that's an "
exclusive club"--I'll choose the Historical Society any day! It is difficult, frustrating, and many times down 'n dirty. Fortunately, my options were not restrained by limiting my focus to "turning dying AMs around"--I had two on each band. Despite my affection for AM radio--and placing more time and effort in it than was justifiable--I doubt I would have survived two years without that first FM in the building.
Several years back, I had to entertain the infamous "offer you can't refuse"... It was emotional... But Thank God it remained rational! EVERY conclusion you published in your post I surmised back then--and consider at that time there was no iPod; XM was in its final stages as a business plan; and the web was running at 48k for most. The infamous Telcom bill was law, and I saw the writing on the control room wall. I had no problem accepting that my meager resources were no match for "the cluster" forming across town. I felt no shame or lack of accomplishment because of that. I remember my non-broadcast business partner telling me:
"In a few more years those guys will have the same problem--only bigger." The company that purchased us has since been swallowed! Now we see the drama unfolding at CC, and I'd say to my old pard:
"No--only MUCH bigger."
As for music on AM, and serving older demos by offering up the usual culprits... My retired parents live on the coast near Hilton Head. The mere mention of that location brings an instant identification of a particular demo to mind; yet on this very day, there
is no "Frank, Bing, and Dino" format on local AM or FM... Furthermore, you won't find Motown or the British Invasion, no WGRR, and not so much as a WDJO on the South Carolina Lowcountry airwaves. Is there an audience?
You bet! They have fully-loaded iPods, CD changers, and XM in every vehicle, boat, and home.
For the man here "turning AMs around with music"--I wish only the very best. For anyone (legally) meeting a business challenge of this nature, I will happily wait in line to shake his hand. I rejoiced earlier this year at the antics of Dusty and 'DJO... I hope... I Listen daily on the net... And remind myself
there is no such thing as "the impossible". Understand that there is a fundamental difference between choosing to call U-Haul because your boss orders you to program a music AM--and
having to remain in town with that AM because
you have the responsibility of owning it! Sometimes that small fundamental can make a large difference...
Sometimes.