Progressive Talk Stations: Winning Formula

[fred flintstone]

Looking at the overall or "topline" numbers for progressive talk stations in the top 25 markets, I noticed some patterns for the stations with better numbers:

• Good signals (Duh!). Not only that, PT stations that are "players" in their markets have been players before, with other formats. "Cellar dweller" PT mostly have never been competitive factors in their respective markets.
• It helps to be outside the Eastern Time Zone. PT stations with stronger numbers are disproportionately likely to be in the Pacific, Mountain and even Central time zones. One advantage: Most carry both Big Ed AND Randi in weekday hours between 6 am and 6pm. The have their cake and eat it, too, with two of progressive talk's stronger shows. Stations in the East must chose between them.
• With one exception, the PT stations with stronger numbers do NOT take "Air America Mornings" (Mark Reilly/Rachel Maddow) or Jerry Springer ("Jerry! Jerry!") - or air these programs during overnight. The stronger stations have Stephanie Miller, local hosts and (in the West) Thom Hartmann and Al Franken in the AM drive/late morning periods. AAR's pre-noon schedule is an albatross on the neck of progressive talk radio. Audiences are larger in the morning and therefore have greater weight in calculating overall audience numbers.

Progressive Talk had a rough rating period in Winter 06 in several major and large markets. But compared to the 05 Winter Book (same rating period one year ago), progressive talk stations in the top 25 markets are up or unchanged in:

• Portland
• Seattle
• Los Angeles
• San Francisco
• Minneapolis-St. Paul
• San Diego
• Atlanta
• Nassau-Suffolk

And for the record, many of Salem's social conservative news-talk stations are down (or no shows) in the Winter Book, as well.

 

[talkjim]

Looks like a smart and well-researched analysis, but just one question--what progressive talk station is showing up in the Nassau/Suffolk book? I haven't seen WLIB listed there--don't think they reach out there too well.

 

[fred flintstone]

Thank you.WLIB is number 30 in the Nassau-Suffolk Winter 06 12+ AQH Share rankings - with the same share the station got in the New York book. Yes, they don't get out there too well. With a decent signal out on the Island, progressive talk might do OK in that market.For the most part, progressive talk's audience appears more suburban than urban (gentrifiers not withstanding) and those Class D/local channel AM stations at the high end of the band are crippling them in their ability to reach much of their target audience. It's also interesting to note that Salem got into the game earlier, grabbed some good real estate on the AM band, but despite better signals and frequencies in many markets, still gets numbers comparable to progressive talk.The question remains can the appeal of the format overcome the dumb moves of AAR management?

 

[ajhenderson]

The Salem model is a bit different. They could get better ratings if they got off their asses and actually programmed, but it's an ideological thing. And there's plenty of conservative talk to make them of interest only to a small niche of people who don't mind listening to boring shows if it fits their far right opinion. However, the fact that Salem has been able to raise so much capital to buy many once-great (and a lot of crappy) stations says something - if Air America could do that, they should and would. Much smarter money than LMAing.

 

[fred flintstone]

They could get better ratings if they got off their asses and actually programmed, but it's an ideological thing.

Also true of AAR.

And there's plenty of conservative talk to make them of interest only to a small niche of people who don't mind listening to boring shows if it fits their far right opinion.

This one is not true of AAR. AAR does have to compete for clearances with Steph and Big Ed in two dayparts, and they do have to compete for listeners in three markets now. Other than that, they pretty much have the field of progressive talk to them themselves. Salem and AAR preach to their respective choirs. On the conservative side, people like Rush and Hannity preach to the pews. Nobody is preaching to the pews on the liberal side of talk radio.

 

[dampier]

The Salem model is a bit different. They could get better ratings if they got off their asses and actually programmed, but it's an ideological thing. And there's plenty of conservative talk to make them of interest only to a small niche of people who don't mind listening to boring shows if it fits their far right opinion. However, the fact that Salem has been able to raise so much capital to buy many once-great (and a lot of crappy) stations says something - if Air America could do that, they should and would. Much smarter money than LMAing.

And if AAR did what Salem does, we'd hear O'Reilly and friends telling us that the only way Air America can stay on the air is to buy themselves onto the air.

 

[fred flintstone]

And if AAR did what Salem does, we'd hear O'Reilly and friends telling us that the only way Air America can stay on the air is to buy themselves onto the air.

Doesn't he say that anyway?Salem's model is different because Salem wants to make money. AAR seems to feel they are above that sort of thing.As you have pointed out, O'Reilly, Maloney et al will spin, twist or invent to have some reason to bash AAR - deserved or not. Who cares what he says? Don't listen to him (or watch him). It's not good for your blood pressure.

 

[kaufcom]

The Salem model is a bit different. They could get better ratings if they got off their asses and actually programmed, but it's an ideological thing. And there's plenty of conservative talk to make them of interest only to a small niche of people who don't mind listening to boring shows if it fits their far right opinion. However, the fact that Salem has been able to raise so much capital to buy many once-great (and a lot of crappy) stations says something - if Air America could do that, they should and would. Much smarter money than LMAing.

Salem uses their "pay for pray" stations (They have two "pay for pray" stations for every right wing talk station) to generate revenue to buy stations. They are actually losing money on their political talkers.

 

[ajhenderson]

Salem uses their "pay for pray" stations (They have two "pay for pray" stations for every right wing talk station) to generate revenue to buy stations. They are actually losing money on their political talkers.

In some cases, but there are a lot of people buying rental real estate and losing money on the mortgage every month who will sell the property at some point and realize a large appreciation then. Same thing.

 

[fred flintstone]

I'm not sure what Salem's goal is with their news-talk "network." Influence elections (same as AAR) or make money (same as everybody else). If it's make money, by keeping costs down and putting news-talk in a sales package with their Christian talk and music networks, they could be profitable. And they were smart enough to buy up some good - even legendary - AM signals when AM stations were going begging and could be had cheap. Salem is an owner, not a renter (at least for the most part - if they do have some LMAs, I'm sure somebody will post that information).Yes, they have multiple revenue streams. So do Jones, Clear Channel/Premiere, CBS Radio, Entercom, et al. AAR does not. AAR (and Jones) do not own stations and that's where the real money is. Group owners get into syndication to provide programming so stations can make money (if syndication makes some, too, all the better). AAR thinks the cart is important - not the horse (which is why they end up with some pathetic horses).

 

[racconradio]

>>t helps to be outside the Eastern Time Zonethey could put Stephanie Miller in the early evening ET and afternoon drive PT. She does the show fromCalif doesn't she? have her 3-6 pm, which is 6-9 out East--would get strong ratings out West and a decent time slot in ET and CT

 

[kaufcom]

In some cases, but there are a lot of people buying rental real estate and losing money on the mortgage every month who will sell the property at some point and realize a large appreciation then. Same thing.

Bad analogy. Virtually all station owners try to maximize profits when they buy a station. Yes, there are some that are hanging on and keeping costs low while they hope for an upswing in the market value of the station. (which have mostly been flat for the past few years.) With Salem it's different. They have a political agenda that they want to pursue even it is not profitable. They can efficiently manage their holdings by operating the "pay for pray" stations and sharing the management and operational costs with the political talkers.

 

[fred flintstone]

Salem - run by some guys from Bob Jones University - apparently thinks it can serve God AND mammon. Here is how they describe their strategy:

Christian teaching/talk is our foundational format... With stations that are strategically located in America's largest markets, our stations are a very important means for our block programmers and advertising customers to reach large audiences. As well as generating advertising revenue, this format derives substantial revenues from the sale of uninterrupted blocks of broadcast time (usually in 26 or 55 minute increments) to block programmers desiring an opportunity to broadcast to a specific market or across the nation. The exposure that our block programmers receive on our stations is very important to their survival and growth, and, as a result, we experience minimal cancellations.News/talk programming is the second most popular radio format in the country, based both on listenership and number of radio stations. Traditional research has shown that news/talk is highly complementary to our core format of Christian Teaching/Talk. Both formats express conservative views and family values.This format also provides us the opportunity to use the syndicated talk programming of our network, Salem Radio Network® (SRN), both reducing the overall costs of operating these radio stations and increasing sales opportunities for our national sales company, Salem Radio Representatives (SRR). In fact, with the significant growth in station acquisitions and the expansion of this new format, SRN and SRR represent opportunities for growth in the years to come.

They have a political agenda - like a lot of station owners. But profit is the top priority.