Projected Spring 25-54s In Boston

[BoscoGoldBear]

1. Kiss 108 by a wide margin (I'm estimating a 8.3)
2. Magic 106.7 - 7.0
3. 93-7 Mike FM - 5.9
4. Mix 98-5 - 4.8
5. 96-9 WTKK(K) - 4.6
6. Sportsrdio WEEI - 3.9
7. Jam'n 94-5 - 3.8
8. WROR - 3.6
9. Country WKLB - 3.5
10. WBZ - 3.2
11. Oldies 103 - 3.0
12. WBOS - 2.9
13. WRKO - 2.8
14. WAAF - 2.7
15. WZLX - 2.2

The rest that I can project: 92.5/The River at 1.6, 'BCN at 1.5 and 'CRB at 0.9

This, of course, is based on the first month of the Boston spring book!

 

[MikeyBos]

Steve, Please describe the methodology that you used to derive these projections. Thanks.

1. Kiss 108 by a wide margin (I'm estimating a 8.3)
2. Magic 106.7 - 7.0
3. 93-7 Mike FM - 5.9
4. Mix 98-5 - 4.8
5. 96-9 WTKK(K) - 4.6
6. Sportsrdio WEEI - 3.9
7. Jam'n 94-5 - 3.8
8. WROR - 3.6
9. Country WKLB - 3.5
10. WBZ - 3.2
11. Oldies 103 - 3.0
12. WBOS - 2.9
13. WRKO - 2.8
14. WAAF - 2.7
15. WZLX - 2.2

The rest that I can project: 92.5/The River at 1.6, 'BCN at 1.5 and 'CRB at 0.9

This, of course, is based on the first month of the Boston spring book!

 

[BoscoGoldBear]

Steve, Please describe the methodology that you used to derive these projections. Thanks.

1. Kiss 108 by a wide margin (I'm estimating a 8.3)
2. Magic 106.7 - 7.0
3. 93-7 Mike FM - 5.9
4. Mix 98-5 - 4.8
5. 96-9 WTKK(K) - 4.6
6. Sportsrdio WEEI - 3.9
7. Jam'n 94-5 - 3.8
8. WROR - 3.6
9. Country WKLB - 3.5
10. WBZ - 3.2
11. Oldies 103 - 3.0
12. WBOS - 2.9
13. WRKO - 2.8
14. WAAF - 2.7
15. WZLX - 2.2

The rest that I can project: 92.5/The River at 1.6, 'BCN at 1.5 and 'CRB at 0.9

This, of course, is based on the first month of the Boston spring book!

I use the gains (and losses) of the above stations in the first month, assume that the gains (and losses) are constant through the ratings period, divide the 25-54s with the overalls to get my percentile, and multiply the projected overalls with the percentiles. Example: Station "WXXX" (a real station in Burlington, Vt., I know) has a 5.0 overall rating with its classic hits format, but does a 6.5 25-54. Divide the 6.5 by 5, you'll get 1.3, which means that its adult ratings are 130% that of its overalls. In the following ratings period, fictional WXXX's classic hits format bumps up to a 5.5 overall after one month. Assuming that the growth will be exactly the same, "WXXX" would have a 6.5 overall at the end of the Spring book. Multiply its 6.5 by 130%, and it has an 8.5 adult rating. Simple, huh?

 

[MikeyBos]

Yes, quite simple. The biggest flaw though is that statistically speaking Arbitron ratings do not even begin to resemble a linear model. So projecting ratings using a linear model is practically meaningless.

Steve, Please describe the methodology that you used to derive these projections. Thanks.

1. Kiss 108 by a wide margin (I'm estimating a 8.3)
2. Magic 106.7 - 7.0
3. 93-7 Mike FM - 5.9
4. Mix 98-5 - 4.8
5. 96-9 WTKK(K) - 4.6
6. Sportsrdio WEEI - 3.9
7. Jam'n 94-5 - 3.8
8. WROR - 3.6
9. Country WKLB - 3.5
10. WBZ - 3.2
11. Oldies 103 - 3.0
12. WBOS - 2.9
13. WRKO - 2.8
14. WAAF - 2.7
15. WZLX - 2.2

The rest that I can project: 92.5/The River at 1.6, 'BCN at 1.5 and 'CRB at 0.9

This, of course, is based on the first month of the Boston spring book!

I use the gains (and losses) of the above stations in the first month, assume that the gains (and losses) are constant through the ratings period, divide the 25-54s with the overalls to get my percentile, and multiply the projected overalls with the percentiles. Example: Station "WXXX" (a real station in Burlington, Vt., I know) has a 5.0 overall rating with its classic hits format, but does a 6.5 25-54. Divide the 6.5 by 5, you'll get 1.3, which means that its adult ratings are 130% that of its overalls. In the following ratings period, fictional WXXX's classic hits format bumps up to a 5.5 overall after one month. Assuming that the growth will be exactly the same, "WXXX" would have a 6.5 overall at the end of the Spring book. Multiply its 6.5 by 130%, and it has an 8.5 adult rating. Simple, huh?

 

[dumber than a box of hair]

assume that the gains (and losses) are constant through the ratings period...Assuming that the growth will be exactly the same...

Your assumptions are, to say the most, funny...to say the least, wrong. Thousands of variables, which neither you nor any radio station could possibly begin to take into account, affect the ratings.

Showing WEEI as getting a 3.9 in the Spring book, during Red Sox season, belongs in the comics section.

 

[rapking]

Mike-Fm 5.9 LOL

 

[BRNout]

Yet JAMN gets a 3.8? Good one! :

 

[BoscoGoldBear]

I did start off projecting the biggest ratings in the biggest ratings season of the year. I already know - even before making my final estimate public - that I'm going to be inaccurate on a couple of stations ('TKK was shown on this board to finish 6th, while 'RKO finished 13th).

So before we get any media-related blogs to read, here are my final 25-54 spring estimates, based on the spring 12+ and the 25-54 multiples reused from the 25-54 winters combined with the 12+ winters (i.e. Kiss 108's 25-54s in the winter were 113.1% of their 12+ in the same period):

1. Kiss 108 - 7.1 (I projected 8.3 after one month)
2. Magic 106.7 - 5.9 (7.0)
3. Jam'n 94-5 - 5.5 (3.8)
4. WEEI - 5.3 (3.9)
5. Mix 98-5 - 4.1 (4.8)
6. Country 102.5/WKLB - 3.9 (3.5)
7. 93-7 Mike FM - 3.9 (5.9 in 1st projections; using the Radio & Records tiebreaker rules I placed 'KLB ahead of Mike because they climbed higher than Mike)
8. WROR - 3.7 (3.6)
9. WTKK - 3.7 (4.6 in 1st projections; again the R&R tiebreaker rules; however, we already know that 'TKK ACTUALLY finished 6th in reality)
10. WBZ - 3.6 (3.2)
11. WZLX - 3.6 (2.2 in 1st projections; again the R&R tiebreaker rules, as 'ZLX is falling faster than 'BZ)
12. Oldies 103 - 3.3 (3.0)
13. WAAFs - 3.1 (2.7)
14. WRKO - 2.7 (2.8 in 1st projections; I know 'RKO really finished 13th; I'd love to see the 25-54 blog when it's released)
15. WBCN - 2.6 (1.5)
16. Radio 92-9 - 2.5 (2.9)
17. 92.5/The River - 1.7 (1.6)
18. WCRB - 1.0 (0.9)

I'd love to see some of these sales staffs try to explain their poor-a** ratings away! ;D

 

[Laurence Glavin]

A few quarters ago, Jessica Heslam printed the RANKINGS of the station 25-54, but I don't recall she also printed the actual numbers. I wonder if she will do so this coming week. There are few guarantees in this life, but this you can take this to the bank (if your bank is still open): any comments about the ratings will include an element dealing with Tom Finneran's MIZZARABLE performance!

 

[BoscoGoldBear]

A few quarters ago, Jessica Heslam printed the RANKINGS of the station 25-54, but I don't recall she also printed the actual numbers. I wonder if she will do so this coming week. There are few guarantees in this life, but this you can take this to the bank (if your bank is still open): any comments about the ratings will include an element dealing with Tom Finneran's MIZZARABLE performance!

Plus her man Howie finished in 5th place - behind #2 WTKKK 'swinger' Jay Severino from Manchester-By-The-Sea. More than good enough to earn a decent bonus, especially when said #5 ratings occur during the most important time of the year!