Radio As Blacksmith Shop

[DavidKaye]

Actually David, what you and I think are of no consequence. You can now get Pandora in your new Buick. Computers and smart phones will make radio obsolete. The value of radio stations will continue to plummet. Working in radio will be like working for a blacksmith in the auto age. In other words, there is no future in it.

This is a fascinating analogy. There are still blacksmith shops; in fact right in the middle of San Francisco's SOMA (South of Market) neighborhood is a blacksmith shop, Edvins Klockers Blacksmith & Metal, at 443 Folsom Street, near First.

The current owner doesn't get much call to shoe horses, but he does forge unique metal pieces such as machine parts, wrought iron rails and yard pieces, etc. The point is that as technology changes and things can be made cheaper and newer, there will still be room for old-school technology and old ways of doing things.

How does this apply to broadcasting? Well, you tell me.

This is my prediction for the future: Just as blacksmiths go upscale to do custom jobs, radio stations will also go upscale. We see it right now with KQED-FM, a high-billing station with an enviable demographic: rich white folks aged 25 to 49.

In the future I see that nearly all radio stations with marginal signals will shut down never to return, the remaining stations will increase their coverage, and most of them will go to specialty formats that appeal to upscale listeners.

KDFC is not the end, KDFC is the beginning. Note that the new KDFC foundation within a little over a year managed to take over 2 full-service non-comm stations, 3 translators, AND has bought a COMMERCIAL station to use as a non-comm, the Class A station originally licensed to Fremont.

I expect that more of this will come. In the last few years KQED Radio bought a full-service station north of Sacramento and put in translators here and there.

But OREGON is even more spectacular. Just look at http://www.ijpr.org/ the website of Jefferson Public Radio. They have no fewer than THREE programming services operating on dozens and dozens of stations throughout southern Oregon and northern California. These are a hodgepodge of non-comms, commercially licensed FMs, bankrupt AMs, etc. One of their services, News & Information has no fewer than 8 formerly commercial AMs spread from Roseburg south to Redding.

So, what do you folks think. Will radio stations become the new blacksmith shops -- fewer but more upscale?

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

David: Your post is a great "thought starter". I have fond memories of going to the blacksmith shop with my father when we needed some farm tool or implement repaired, modified or sharpened.

Which brings up another thought starter for trying to be creative about future adaptations of radio I see a lot of comparison between modern day radio and that "factory farm" beef feeder lots we see along the highway as we travel or the chicken houses we have here in Georgia. But look what else is happening in farming. There is now an Urban Agriculture Movement where vacant lots in the cities are being planted. The organic farmers selling their produce Saturday mornings in parking lot Farmers Markets is thriving.

Again: Your post is a great "thought starter".

 

[calguy]

I knew they still existed of course, but not in the numbers they did before the auto age. Obviously, people still own horses, but you don't find them in the numbers you did when horses were your only mode of personal conveyance.

My point is, that we as radio workers, well, like I said, our days are numbered... They'll still need some, but not in the numbers that they did in the past, and it will continue that way until it's very specialized. More so than before...

As for stations being fewer but upscale, fewer yes, upscale, kind of doubt it. Radio has and will continue to have people who have little training or seasoning on the air. When you dump the experienced for those who are new and work cheap, well like I said, you get what you pay for. I know many people who left radio for better pay and security in other industries.

 

[LKellerIII]

I like your analogy, David - and it paints a hopeful picture for radio's future. I hope you're right. It fits in with my current radio listening habits - primarily NPR - KQED and KALW. I can't stomach much else anymore. Commercial news radio, traditional commercial talk stations, over-researched music stations. I'm over all of that. As far as music radio goes, my ipod has supplanted any need for that - with the occasional exception of KDFC, since I've collected very little classical music.

In the face of modern technology, it's hard to see how the current voice-tracked juke-box model radio stations can endure for any length of time. But perhaps I'm wrong, and there will always been an audience of people that is too indifferent to music, or too busy to bother downloading music, and don't mind enduring commercials for the privilege. Maybe there will always be enough of those people to keep the 103.7s and Star 101.3s of the world going. I know that even in the 60s as a teenager, for every friend I had who could appreciate The Real Don Steele and Top 40 radio formatics, there were 3 who wished they would just shut up and play the music - be a juke-box, in other words.

 

[recto101]

I saw something on a local texas on a Texas company that had a typewriter shop in 2008 I think that became a museum at the time. Maybe old school radio and TV will be like the typewriter museum while the price of smartphones, tablets, MP3 and Computers and downloading streaming audio becomes cheaper. But I hope Cell phone Towers and Wifi transmitters can withstand the next 6.9-7.X quake. because everybody will jump to an all-news radio station on their tablet and phone during that situation. I know USGS and Red Cross say you must have AM/FM/Weather Band/Shortwave radio during a quake but Nobody is going to carry it.

 

[amfmxm]

When is the future? Ten years ahead or 100 years ahead?

It is a little odd to be comparing a medium currently enjoying 93 percent weekly usage, according to the just-released Edison Research/Arbitron 2012 Infinate Dial study--just behind TV's 97 percent--with blacksmiths and typewriters.

For whatever reasons--maybe as simple as a normal inclination to think of years past as "The Good Old Days," as we age--many radio veterans want to write-off radio as dead or damn-near dead, despite having the kind of wallop that nearly every other medium would kill to have. And also, BTW, having CEOs knocking down $100 million-a-year paychecks.

Sure, that's a problem. The Lew Dickeys of the world are turning our industry into one with lots of computers and few people (just as Jefferson and KDFC are doing with their thousand-repeater networks). And that's mostly what we grieve.

But that's structural. It can be fixed. The important thing is that the listeners are still here, and as long as they stick around--and as of today, they haven't gone anywhere--radio is a long way from a typewriter or blacksmith analogy.

 

[cayenne]

I absolutely believe that some small radio stations can be resuscitated, staffed by live jocks, have an eclectic presentation and generate enough revenue to sustain modest but comfortable salaries for the staff. The formula requires some courage and lots of internal belief in your own talents and capabilities. The short version is to assemble an investment group comprised of radio ex-patriots. Pros who love the game but have been replaced by the current environment. The players must be willing to invest their own money in the pool of revenue required to manage the start up and work for free until revenue can be generated and distributed accordingly. Draw from various models both commercial and non traditional, generic sales and NPR type sponsorships, and work from within the system. Join every civic club in the community. Rotary, Moose, Chamber of Commerce, Downtown Business Association etc. Immerse yourself. There are hundreds of properties ripe for any kind of intervention… which lends itself to hundreds of financing and operational opportunities. Location is critical. Thriving multi college towns are a good fishing hole. One should be able to find a fantastic staff of modern radio adventurers deep in talent, experience, knowledge and know how. Many will have to have other forms of income and or career paths to sustain them during the renaissance and all will have to share and sign on to the ideals and principles surrounding the venture. Take a giant step. For all of you bemoaning the way it used to be, or should be, or could be…here’s your short form path.

Search Tom Yates KOZT-FM (California) For a fine role model…

 

[calguy]

I absolutely believe that some small radio stations can be resuscitated, staffed by live jocks, have an eclectic presentation and generate enough revenue to sustain modest but comfortable salaries for the staff. The formula requires some courage and lots of internal belief in your own talents and capabilities. The short version is to assemble an investment group comprised of radio ex-patriots. Pros who love the game but have been replaced by the current environment. The players must be willing to invest their own money in the pool of revenue required to manage the start up and work for free until revenue can be generated and distributed accordingly. Draw from various models both commercial and non traditional, generic sales and NPR type sponsorships, and work from within the system. Join every civic club in the community. Rotary, Moose, Chamber of Commerce, Downtown Business Association etc. Immerse yourself. There are hundreds of properties ripe for any kind of intervention… which lends itself to hundreds of financing and operational opportunities. Location is critical. Thriving multi college towns are a good fishing hole. One should be able to find a fantastic staff of modern radio adventurers deep in talent, experience, knowledge and know how. Many will have to have other forms of income and or career paths to sustain them during the renaissance and all will have to share and sign on to the ideals and principles surrounding the venture. Take a giant step. For all of you bemoaning the way it used to be, or should be, or could be…here’s your short form path.

Search Tom Yates KOZT-FM (California) For a fine role model…

If this was Facebook that post would have a lot of "likes'

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I absolutely believe that some small radio stations can be resuscitated, staffed by live jocks, have an eclectic presentation and generate enough revenue to sustain modest but comfortable salaries for the staff. The formula requires some courage and lots of internal belief in your own talents and capabilities. The short version is to assemble an investment group comprised of radio ex-patriots. Pros who love the game but have been replaced by the current environment.

The ability to recognize which ones can be resuscitated and which ones will be a dog no matter who takes it over or what they do is a tough, tough call.

Ten years ago I began a search for such a jewel. I didn't find the one that was right. I don't think anyone has taken any of them that I walked away from and made something to brag about out of it. One of them was put together with an FM CP and may be doing well. I need to check in on it just to satisfy my curiosity.

If you haven't already done this, build a business model in an Excel Spreadsheet with formulas that allow you to play what-if with budgets. Live jocks complete with benefits can eat your lunch before the morning coffee break in a "small radio station".

 

[cayenne]

It's important to remember...live jocks with benefits worked before. When I encouraged immersing yourself in the community...that means everyone. All personel are deeply involved in various civic groups (mandantory) and as a result can influence and effect sales. Please note I said the staff works for free until they reach funding and operational targets. It's a co-op.

Here's some more inspiration...

I am a Free Form, Progressive version of David Eduardo…well sort of. I’ve been a GM/VP, multiple Operations and Programming Positions, Network Ops, National Affiliate Relations, and 10 plus year major market jock. Several music industry associative stops along the way. Retired early, I moved to the country. A very small town with a Giant Ford Dealer. Because it’s a small town everybody knows everybody. Word gets around. Grown Up Gossip. I join a few civic groups because it helps me to network. Meet people and have a circle (in my new small town). People know I’m a radio guy.
A while back the owner of the Ford Dealer approaches me about 5 radio stations he is interested in. He leans on me. Turns out he can buy these 5 stations (a single very small town group) for less than his annual advertising budget. He thinks… I can meet the note (mortgage and interest) Run as many ads as the public can absorb, meet or cut my advertising budget and own 5 radio stations…The stations (all 5) Had a production director that did traffic and logs, a Part time receptionist (billing) a GM that did all the sales and a morning man slash sales/operations/programming/remotes/public appearances/drive the van/fix the van/paint the van kind of guy. Engineer was an independent who worked for dozens of mom and pops on call.
The thread here is this Ford guy could own 5 radio stations for less than his annual advertising budget. True story!
Moral: There’s a way to be an equity owner, operator, partner you just have to start “Shakin’ The Tree“.

 

[DavidKaye]

A while back the owner of the Ford Dealer approaches me about 5 radio stations he is interested in. He leans on me. Turns out he can buy these 5 stations (a single very small town group) for less than his annual advertising budget. He thinks… I can meet the note (mortgage and interest) Run as many ads as the public can absorb, meet or cut my advertising budget and own 5 radio stations…The stations (all 5) Had a production director that did traffic and logs, a Part time receptionist (billing) a GM that did all the sales and a morning man slash sales/operations/programming/remotes/public appearances/drive the van/fix the van/paint the van kind of guy. Engineer was an independent who worked for dozens of mom and pops on call.

So, why are you suggesting that others do this when you haven't done it yourself? Sounds like with your wide experience and the Ford dealer behind you that you'd be doing it now. What's stopping you?

 

[cayenne]

I am retired...
Both of my posts in this thread were simply meant to be inspirational. To share with folks who have the vision, desire and passion to affect change that there are alternative ways to reach your goals. I noted my experience in an effort to lend credibility to my comments and felt pretty confident I'd hear from you...

 

[landtuna]

This is a fascinating analogy. There are still blacksmith shops; ...

There is another analogy at work here and I know a bit about it because my grandfather was one of those old time blacksmiths you talk about.

He could do anything with metal. From repairing giant mining equipment to fixing a kid's bicycle. His shop motto was "We fix anything but the crack of dawn and a broken heart" - and he meant it.

But he never shooed horses. Those were before his time. In the "olden days" a smithy's primary job was to keep transportation running. Making horseshoes, installing them, fixing wagon wheels, axles etc. That was about 95% of the job. Then, in the early part of the 20th Century a specialty developed - the Farrier who specialized in horseshoes, hooves and the like. The blacksmith took on automobile repair and expanded his metal working skills into ornate wrought iron - tables, chairs, patio furniture, fireplace equipment, stairs etc. Then blacksmithing split again because those newfangled contraptions known as horseless carriages were getting too complicated. Along came dedicated auto mechanics and the smithy retreated into his metalworking. And that is basically where we are today.

My grandfather opened his shop during WWI and closed it just months before he died in 1975. The above was his story.

 

[DavidKaye]

David: Your post is a great "thought starter". I have fond memories of going to the blacksmith shop with my father when we needed some farm tool or implement repaired, modified or sharpened.

Thank you. I've noticed that nearly every old technology continues to be used, but mainly for specialized needs. The people who purchase services from those low-tech people tend to have lots of money and want to do it in special personalized way. I know a guy who makes dovetail drawers for cabinets. You know, the way the ends and sides of the drawers are meshed together in a dovetail fashion? Well, there is a very specialized demand for these drawers among high-end cabinet makers. He now has about 15 employees and rents a huge workshop at Mare Island to make them. He's doing well.

Likewise, there are people who still use oscilloscopes, tube amplifiers, spin records instead of CDs, and record their garage bands on open reel tape. But for each of those situations, the user has to pay a premium. In the case of an 1800 foot open reel 1/4 inch tape you're going to pay upwards of $50-60 a reel, whereas in ye olden days you could buy a reel for about $2.

Which brings up another thought starter for trying to be creative about future adaptations of radio I see a lot of comparison between modern day radio and that "factory farm" beef feeder lots we see along the highway as we travel or the chicken houses we have here in Georgia. But look what else is happening in farming. There is now an Urban Agriculture Movement where vacant lots in the cities are being planted. The organic farmers selling their produce Saturday mornings in parking lot Farmers Markets is thriving.

Again: Your post is a great "thought starter".

My feeling is that the conglomerates will eventually get out of radio broadcasting (that is, AM and FM stations) and focus on internet delivery, just as Ampex, 3M, and Kodak got out of open reel recording tape. The specialists will buy up the equipment and perhaps create next generation equipment of their own, and radio broadcasting will continue, but in a specialized way, broadcasting to elite listeners.

Classical music, high-brow cultural programming, high quality news -- we already experience those with the non-comms. I can see a future where other esoteric formats such as filk music (sci-fi induced folk-sounding music) and other programming options loved by the moneyed elite will eventually come in as well.