RADIO (as we know it) is DEAD!!!

[12 In a Row]

First, I'm sorry Sir, no dig intended. Just sounds like you yearn for the good ole days and then the big bad corporate world came in and ruined the party. I to would like to turn the clock back.

As for the former owners, it was his or her station and he owes his people nothing but a paycheck and a thank you.
If it were me, I would have had a nice handsome farewell check for them.

Way I see it, corporate had a plan to buy these stations and make money.
If they can move a stick closer to a larger city, the station is now worth more.

Recession hits, radio advertising radio is down, the business is no longer "sexy", and the rest is history.

In any business, you maximize your return on investment. Know when to hold em, know when to fold em, and move on.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Market Correction

12, I don't yearn for the old days. I just recognize when a business plan has failed.

I agree that the former owners were smart to take the money. A bonus for the people left behind would be a nice touch.

Corporate had a plan, but the plan was flawed, which is becoming more evident daily. Now some people are even advocating taking stations dark rather than returning them to serve the people who they were originally intended to serve. I find that idea to also be flawed.

My real fear is that Corporate is looking at the bandwidth auctions that are going into the billions and thinking "Gee, I've got some bandwidth available. Maybe I can finagle a way to make it worth a boatload of money if I can plead poverty to the FCC, and show them that AM radio - or even terrestrial radio - is no longer economically viable."

I'm sure that the thought has crossed the minds of some people wearing shiny suits in swanky corporate offices. Just think, you could force everyone to buy new receivers, which would get hundreds of "new technology" broadcast streams that would contain boring, repetitive, souless programming.

I don't see it as "yearning for the good old days". I see it as looking back at what worked.

 

[12 In a Row]

I agree, the business plan failed big time.

You would think maybe one of the big suits would have asked, "What if?"

What if the economy goes south?
What if technology moves in another direction?

Sort of like the Iraq situation. Nobody bothered to ask the "What if's?"

Television planned for the future. DTV/HD, Digital Sound, and even more channels to choose from.
As you know, the analog channels will be turned over to police, fire and emergency rescue.

If radio is to survive, it will need to do the same.
With HD radio there will be plenty of room for local.

 

[adma]

If radio is to survive, it will need to do the same.
With HD radio there will be plenty of room for local.

"What if technology moves in another direction?"

 

[12 In a Row]

In business as in life, there will always be the element of risk and the unknown.

 

[firepoint525]

In all this discussion of "rimshot" signals, I'm assuming (or at least I hope!) that most of you are referring to FM stations, and not AMs. Other than the ones whose towers are already in the inner city, I don't think an AM station could deliver a citywide usable signal.

Having said that, some local AMs, while still serving their local community, have taken on some big-city programming as well. I know of one on the south side of town that carries traffic reports. But it puzzles me that they mention crashes on the north side of town, when most of their listeners are likely not headed in that direction, and travelers who already are in that area can't pick up this station's signal anyway. (Remember, not a citywide usable signal!) However, I'm guessing the possibility is that this traffic reporter might be working for a number of different stations, and doesn't just simply omit the traffic tie-ups that are not in this station's listening area, or affect this station's listeners.

And don't even get me started on the possibility of listening to an AM "rimshot" at night! I can't even listen to the AM that serves my own county at night, except by listening online.

 

[KFodor]

OK, I'm going to start a can of worms here. But before I do, understand I don't have this idea completely fleshed out yet. So, this idea is full of holes. You engineering types can figure out how to pull it off technically. So, here goes:

Both AM and FM bands need to realigned.

AM should be a "regional" service of no less than 10,000 watts fulltime. There should be no AM's in tiny towns. No daytimers. Nothing.

Smaller Class "A" FM stations should be given to small town, local broadcasters. A Class "A" station can serve a local area well.

B's and C's...those are the provinces of bigger cities, who have bigger metropolitan areas to cover. The larger coverage area required merits bigger power.

FM A's in big towns...as well as AM Class D's and AM suburban C's need to face tough scrutiny as to whether they should be granted to the big town. Some AM D's and C's could be granted the licenses of unprofitable stations currently being "warehoused" by the big guns. (In my view, there is no excuse for a 5 KW AM with a good signal to be "parked" in a format that gets a 0.3 12 plus. That's a waste of spectrum space.)

Ok, can of worms opened. Go for it!

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I'm not sure why you propose that NO small communities would have an AM. There are communities that can be served very well with 1KW fulltime. If someone has the fortitude to take on the whole industry with a shakeup like you propose (and probably needs to happen!) maybe there should be additional "graveyard frequencies" set up. Jason: are you aware that in some mountain rural communities FM is the pits for a small operator. Line of Sight FM signals do not penetrate down into the valleys well.

It would be an interesting computer programmer exercise to plot it out just for grins, but I am not sure that there are enough FM channels to allocate a class A to every small community in America. They might have to think about 1kw instead of 6kw to get it done.

There are little towns that currently have two AMs. They probably shouldn't, but they do. Would your plan offer a class A FM to each of them, or would you have the two AM operators meet on main street at high noon and fight a duel to the death with the survivor getting the ONE FM allocation?

Jason: Are you a Bible student? Do you know the story of King Solomon who displayed his gift of wisdom when two women came before him arguing over a baby. Each claimed to be the mother. So the King said: Bring me a sword and I will split the baby in two and each of you can have half. One woman said "Great". The other woman said, "No let her have the baby." Solomon knew the rightful mother would NOT agree to the splitting of the baby.

Who do you propose would be out King Solomon and be the referee on which stations are wiped out so other stations can have enough power to serve and entire city in the 21st century size. Who will decide which stations are just "parked" and thus should be forfeited so that another licensee can have something better?

Thanks for bringing up the topic. I would agree that change of someking is called for. I suspect every variation that other people post here will also have some really tough "political" issues to overcome.

 

[ChrisKMusic]

Terrestial radio won't exist as we know it today, in 20 years (or less). So the point is academic. Just as AM/FM television is to be replaced with Hi-Def, so too will technologies continue to emerge that replace the now antiquated AM/FM radio signals.

per 'station' audience sizes will continue to shrink as the number of 'signal-paths' increases ... a city might have 1000 stations, instead of the one or two or three or 30 or 50 we have now.

 

[bub]

Inside secret department:

Dave: You forgot the double-pinky swear. ;D

 

[KFodor]

I'm not sure why you propose that NO small communities would have an AM. There are communities that can be served very well with 1KW fulltime. If someone has the fortitude to take on the whole industry with a shakeup like you propose (and probably needs to happen!) maybe there should be additional "graveyard frequencies" set up. Jason: are you aware that in some mountain rural communities FM is the pits for a small operator. Line of Sight FM signals do not penetrate down into the valleys well.

It would be an interesting computer programmer exercise to plot it out just for grins, but I am not sure that there are enough FM channels to allocate a class A to every small community in America. They might have to think about 1kw instead of 6kw to get it done.

There are little towns that currently have two AMs. They probably shouldn't, but they do. Would your plan offer a class A FM to each of them, or would you have the two AM operators meet on main street at high noon and fight a duel to the death with the survivor getting the ONE FM allocation?

Jason: Are you a Bible student? Do you know the story of King Solomon who displayed his gift of wisdom when two women came before him arguing over a baby. Each claimed to be the mother. So the King said: Bring me a sword and I will split the baby in two and each of you can have half. One woman said "Great". The other woman said, "No let her have the baby." Solomon knew the rightful mother would NOT agree to the splitting of the baby.

Who do you propose would be out King Solomon and be the referee on which stations are wiped out so other stations can have enough power to serve and entire city in the 21st century size. Who will decide which stations are just "parked" and thus should be forfeited so that another licensee can have something better?

Thanks for bringing up the topic. I would agree that change of someking is called for. I suspect every variation that other people post here will also have some really tough "political" issues to overcome.

Good points. And, perhaps there could be some part of the band that could be "reserved" for a some local AM radio service in areas such as you describe. (I agree mountain terrain could be an issue that could merit an exeception to the rule.)

I did smile at your King Solomon reference, and I'll grant you your comparison is valid.

But, if you think back...way back when...the Federal Radio Commission (in realizing AM had severe interference problems due to the fact that there was little regulation back then) actually tossed a couple hundred operators off the air to reduce interference. A more regional service on AM might open up the band a bit to allow digital service to have less in the way of problems. (Please don't argue IBOC here...I have concerns about it, but no formal opinion either way yet.)

The AM digital that I have heard does sound great. (It could open up the way toward AM being able to be something more than talk and, potentially, be more competitive. Hey, full service, or some form of it, might be able to come back.) But the interference problem, is the problem with AM. There are too many stations on the band. And, please don't misunderstand me. I know there are successful AM local operations. But, I just think the current situation, the current standards, don't meet the needs of the industry. For AM to be healthy, it's got to be heard in a situation where it sounds better than the crap receivers they have in car radios and boom boxes.

I'm would be willing (and in fact would love to see): modifications to this basic idea. I don't think a successful, profitiable service should be taken away from a smaller community. But where I live, there's several AM stations that I can think of which are, frankly, a total waste of spectrum space. They don't make money. They're worth about $100-$200 grand tops. Why should they be mucking up the band when a more regional service, run by a broadcast company that understood the responsibility that goes with that could do it better?

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I don't think a successful, profitiable service should be taken away from a smaller community. But where I live, there's several AM stations that I can think of which are, frankly, a total waste of spectrum space. They don't make money. They're worth about $100-$200 grand tops. Why should they be mucking up the band when a more regional service, run by a broadcast company that understood the responsibility that goes with that could do it better?

Are you prepared to argue that as a class of owners, "regional service" broadcast companies know more about and are better at running, programming stations?

Let's assume I find a distress sale and for $90,000 to 120,000 I buy this crummy little smally market station. Three years later we are tooling along and people are patting me on the back for doing a good job and suggesting I could "flip" the think for 200,000 if that is what I wanted to do, needed to do.

Then along comes the FCC-Jason plan and says: "Goat, you need to shut down so this guy down the road with his $350,000 can finally give your area some good radio.

What would be the criteria we would consider in the hearings and court case that follows? What do I need to be doing at my little lawn-mower powered radio station to plead for continued life? Does the Hummer powered station down the road win the case? Why?

 

[redneckriviera]

Sorry I've missed so much of this conversation--we've been busy trying to sell spots in this thriving economy of ours! But I did go back and read... whew!

Quick thoughts.

As Mark Twain may have said, reports of radio's death have been greatly exaggerated. And though it may disappoint many, radio (as we know it) is very likely to survive all readers of this thread. During the first 40 years of my career, radio has always been a messy business--and it's getting messier. But society doesn't move all at once. I recall a conversation from a college broadcast management class I took back in the sixties about how AM was dead. Tell that to WGN, WLW & WBZ.

Exceptions? You bet. But it's those exceptions--and a thousand or so like them across the country--that will likely stop a plan like Jason's AM realignment dead in its tracks. Besides, many of those AM sticks we presume to be dead because they're playing Korean or Vietnamese or Irish (okay, just playin' wit'cha) are profitable little enterprises... and some, not so little. It's just that those properties have already moved into the next phase of AM life--necessity being the mother of invention, as it is. Many forget that the Top 40/CHR format that so many of us Baby Boomers now mourn was born on a 1-kw daytimer in Omaha that ran out of every other idea.

So radio will continue to morph as necessity forces it.

Will those currently under 25-or-so be along for the ride. Maybe, maybe not. Again, society doesn't move all at once. But radio (for the most part) hasn't programmed to those demos for the past umpteen years. As one of the posters back there stated, content is king. If the content is right and you don't chase them away with too many commercials, radio still has at least one advantage over the iPod. It requires no effort.

And Americans are a bunch of lazy SOBs...

 

[12 In a Row]

2018 and NAB President Billy Mays will be selling, YELLING Radio.

"BILLY MAYS HERE FOR RADIO! ARE YOU STILL USING THOSE BOTHERSOME
I-PODS?

I'M HERE TO TELL YOU ABOUT THIS AMAZING PRODUCT CALLED RADIO.
YOU SIMPLY TURN IT ON AND THATS IT!!!!!!

RADIO DOES THE REST!!!!!!!!!!!!


radio, from the makers of magic puddy, now on sale for just 19.95 order now!

 

[Carmine5]

Sorry I've missed so much of this conversation--we've been busy trying to sell spots in this thriving economy of ours! But I did go back and read... whew!

Quick thoughts.

As Mark Twain may have said, reports of radio's death have been greatly exaggerated. And though it may disappoint many, radio (as we know it) is very likely to survive all readers of this thread. During the first 40 years of my career, radio has always been a messy business--and it's getting messier. But society doesn't move all at once. I recall a conversation from a college broadcast management class I took back in the sixties about how AM was dead. Tell that to WGN, WLW & WBZ.

Exceptions? You bet. But it's those exceptions--and a thousand or so like them across the country--that will likely stop a plan like Jason's AM realignment dead in its tracks. Besides, many of those AM sticks we presume to be dead because they're playing Korean or Vietnamese or Irish (okay, just playin' wit'cha) are profitable little enterprises... and some, not so little. It's just that those properties have already moved into the next phase of AM life--necessity being the mother of invention, as it is. Many forget that the Top 40/CHR format that so many of us Baby Boomers now mourn was born on a 1-kw daytimer in Omaha that ran out of every other idea.

So radio will continue to morph as necessity forces it.

Will those currently under 25-or-so be along for the ride. Maybe, maybe not. Again, society doesn't move all at once. But radio (for the most part) hasn't programmed to those demos for the past umpteen years. As one of the posters back there stated, content is king. If the content is right and you don't chase them away with too many commercials, radio still has at least one advantage over the iPod. It requires no effort.

And Americans are a bunch of lazy SOBs...

This is my thinking exactly. You read so much about radio failing as an entertainment/information medium and, yet, I'm hearing of small market stations that are connecting with the community they serve and doing very well.

A good friend of mine who works for a 4-station group in the Bend, Oregon area told me that last year they billed over 4 million dollars. No one got laid off and, in fact, the company added staff.

I know of a 500 watt AM station on the East Coast that did over 350K last year. This was plenty for the station owner to cover his nut, pay his staff and even put a down on a second low watt AM.

No doubt if the performance royalty tax is approved by Congress many small stations will hurt (imagine a small market station paying the same amount in fees as a Los Angeles station). In fact, we'll probably see a major shift in what radio will be (less music, more talk?).

On his blog, Mark Ramsey asked David Oxenburg, a media industry lawyer, what would prevent a radio station or radio group from becoming a record company? Answer: nothing. So radio could discover and promote its own stable of recording artists and totally remove the RIAA, SoundEx and the CRB from the equation. Is that radio's future?

Hard to say, but one thing is certain; radio in one form or another will survive.

C5

 

[12 In a Row]

Radio will survive in one form or another, I hope it doesn't come to that.

RADIO-We DON'T Play the Hits

That would attract, oh ten's of people.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Radio will survive in one form or another, I hope it doesn't come to that.

RADIO-We DON'T Play the Hits

In some ways.... I hope it does come to that.

People do some of their most creative and memorable work when faced with insurmountable odds.

I have never entertained the idea that I wanted my tombstone to say: "He was loyal to the end. Played only the hits."

I have always been amused by the way play-by-play sports announcers wallow in statistics. "The batter holds the record for batting percentage against left-handed pitchers born in Cuba during a month spelled with an R."

With today's technology you should soon be able to download to your iPod or find an SM channel that plays only Brahms music played on instruments made from wood grown in Bolivia and manufactured with vegan approved glue.

When I grew up there was ONE Hit Parade, one genre of pop music. For radio to survive we probably need for about 25 to 35% of the stations to focus on, be The Source for some genre of music. The other 65% of stations need to find something useful, something fitting to do besides "grind records" as we used to say. And we have to come to the point where advertisers and advertising agencies understand this 'weaned from music' medium.

There must be a few things radio and only radio can do.... something iPod cannot do well, something Internet cannot do well, or let's just pull the plug on broadcasting. Let the police have the frequencies for dispatching ambulances. Let the airports have the frequencies for improving air travel. Let the pre-kindergarten kids have the spectrum to get an early start on text messaging.

 

[Carmine5]

Radio will survive in one form or another, I hope it doesn't come to that.

RADIO-We DON'T Play the Hits

That would attract, oh ten's of people.

And that's what iPods are for. To play someone's collection of hits (or buy all the Time/Life compilations and you've got everything AC and Oldies radio plays).

But if radio wants to attract the next generation, who is always on the look out for new music, then maybe radio needs to discover some on their own.

Look at Radio Disney. Kids will listen to some AM station's crappy signal just to hear the latest Miley Cyrus song. Kids love Disney's stable of teen artists.

In some respects, the performance royalty tax might be a good thing. It could force radio to move away from the same 500 hit songs they've been playing ad nauseum and on to some fresher pastures.

C5

 

[12 In a Row]

Ouch! Try selling that formula to potential advertisers.

 

[adma]

Ouch! Try selling that formula to potential advertisers.

Ouch! Try selling that potential-advertiser-geared radio formula to listeners of the next generation.