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Radio economic doom predicted

I would love to see more locally owned stations come out of this economic downturn.

Got lemons? Make lemonade! ;)
 
would love to see more locally owned stations come out of this economic downturn.
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That's not what you'll see if Dickey has his way.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

How do we keep 1996 from happening again?
 
In good and bad times radio survived. The difference this time is the enormous debt loads these companies have taken on and will likely not be able to service over the next couple of years. On the other hand what are the banks going to do with them? Dickey is probably right...half the players soon won't be. But the opportunity is going to be tough for mom n pops. No financing. Lousy market and declining value of ALL media don't make for a winning biz plan.

Hang on Gentlemen...(and ladies). The show is about to begin...
 
So, what, some of the johnny-come-lately outfits who paid insane amounts for lagging station groups go belly-up? Someone sill come in and be willing to buy each and every station that dies. Maybe not at the ridiculous prices we've grown accustomed to the last decade, but, hey, there's a reason folks've been slagging those purchases.

Some will go out as single-station purchases. Some will go to current players without crushing debtloads. Some will go to relatively new VC players. Some will go to current-exec groups who think they could do it right if given a free hand.

And radio will still be there when the dust settles.
 
I have to give Dickey credit. He said that these companies (I assume he's including Crumulus) are not only financially
screwed-up, but also have done a disservice to listeners and advertisers by ruing the product. Question is, is he willing
to turn that around in a bad economy or use the economy as a crutch to continue to fire good people who actually
improve the product.

Mr. Dickey is also right, most of the mid-sized companies will be bought out. Let's hope he focuses on improving his company,
his product, etc. instead of taking than half a billion $ line of credit and going on another assault of the airwaves.
 
I don't think that music radio is doomed. However, I believe it will continue to be marginalized until it "gives the people what they want"...the best songs, fun people to hang out with, and reduced, sensible commercial clutter.

The finest General Manger I've ever worked with told me that traffic jams actually served to create an opportunity to cement yourself as a destination station. He said that a slowdown on a freeway gave people a chance to fall in love with your product, but only as long as it met expectations. That kept me driving towards making my station an an appointment station. That, and the fact that I had an amazing group of good people on my side of the field.

Things can be better, and stations can create profit for all involved, but only when product triumphs fear.
 
Mr. Dickey is also right, most of the mid-sized companies will be bought out. Let's hope he focuses on improving his company,
his product, etc. instead of taking than half a billion $ line of credit and going on another assault of the airwaves.
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There is nothing in his history or Cumulus' to support that hope. The only way to stop another "assault of the airwaves" is through legislation or a more activist FCC to stop another station grab. Unlike 1996, we can see this coming. Shame on all of us if it happens again.
 
Dickey can spin the situation any way he wants, but the fact is that his company is in the same deep trouble as every other debt-laden company. He just fired over 200 people for that reason alone. The good news is that his company is going to have to sell radio stations just like the others. If advertising revenue stays in the dumps the way it is now, he's not going to have any choice. I think that's a good thing in the long run. I'm hoping radio will come out the other side of this in better shape than it is now.
 
armchairqb said:
Dickey can spin the situation any way he wants, but the fact is that his company is in the same deep trouble as every other debt-laden company. He just fired over 200 people for that reason alone. The good news is that his company is going to have to sell radio stations just like the others. If advertising revenue stays in the dumps the way it is now, he's not going to have any choice. I think that's a good thing in the long run. I'm hoping radio will come out the other side of this in better shape than it is now.
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Amen! Mr. Dickey should have been listening to his own stations. Financial talk show host Dave Ramsey in particular. I am thankful for being bought out of my stations by a Top Five company years ago! But, I was shocked at how they offered to pay 20 times the cash flow and didn't care. That was the beginning of the crazy price hikes for stations in the 90's. It didn't make sense then and it makes no sense NOW!

Dave Ramsey says it best (although the phrase here is slightly altered by me for purposes of this discussion) ---

"Cash is king and the paid off radio station has replaced the BMW as the status symbol of the broadcasting industry."

Proof's finally being seen --- the bigger they are in debt, the bigger they can get FALL. I always was amazed at how this sky is the limit mentality
continued. Now, were about to know the rest of the story...
 
I hear that George Washington isn't feeling so well today either.

Somebody please tell me whY this history is now news, or is this just an example of WHY the old media are going away (in a twisted irony, just as scientists prepare to clone a wooly mammoth)... because the BUSINESS JOURNAL just discovered a 9 year old BUSINESS story?
 
Mr. Dickey wasn't referring to the on air product. He was referring to the sales product. Two different things. There is only one person at Cumulus corporate who ever had a clue about programming but he drank the koolaid....
 
I was talking about the product value in the marketplace, whether that be advertising clients, listeners, potential buyers of the facility, etc... We have been watching value in all areas being driven down to zero by the MBA's who bought the radio (and TV) stations and then promptly exerminated the exact people who knew how to not only extract from but add to that value. You can probably point to the day Randy Michaels was neutered as the thousandth and fatal cut.
 
Mr. Eduardo may have more insight into this, but it seems Radio in general is going to be forced to make changes in the way it's sold. While some predict doom and gloom, I've heard others talk about the upside and opportunities PPM/reach give radio. Posting has begun as has guaranteed points for clients. While hardly a TV Insider, it seems as if the Sales philosophies between Radio and TV will be nearly identical.

The question is can Radio react quick enough to this systemic change and value itself accordingly, or will some continue to cheapen the product and play to the lowest common denominator?
 
Inside Radio Insider said:
Mr. Eduardo may have more insight into this, but it seems Radio in general is going to be forced to make changes in the way it's sold. While some predict doom and gloom, I've heard others talk about the upside and opportunities PPM/reach give radio. Posting has begun as has guaranteed points for clients. While hardly a TV Insider, it seems as if the Sales philosophies between Radio and TV will be nearly identical.

The question is can Radio react quick enough to this systemic change and value itself accordingly, or will some continue to cheapen the product and play to the lowest common denominator?
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Interesting...I wonder if radio will follow the TV model of having local stations carried on cable/satellite? Sirius/XM has great national coverage, but I think that people will always seek out local news and information from the local stations. I'm not quite certain how or if it could/would work, but I don't see local radio going away completely.
 
Consolidation isn't the answer. Shouldn't that have been learned from 1996? For anyone to think it will magically work, this time, could possibly be a little out of touch. I just stated yesterday that I thought (in their best interest) CBS Radio Phoenix should only keep their two top stations here. But that's like...un-consolidating! I'm proud. Everybody should follow suit (no meaning for a pun there). Imagine if the major companies, who are struggling as is, downsized by just a station or two in most markets?

What would result? More money to go to each station, easier to maintain top-notch personalities, everybody's happy, including the listeners because maybe you have it in the budget for some bigger/better things, and last but not least, research. Ratings should reflect it complementary. Is this a hard concept to grasp?
 
KOOL Listener Lauren said:
Consolidation isn't the answer. Shouldn't that have been learned from 1996? For anyone to think it will magically work, this time, could possibly be a little out of touch. I just stated yesterday that I thought (in their best interest) CBS Radio Phoenix should only keep their two top stations here. But that's like...un-consolidating! I'm proud. Everybody should follow suit (no meaning for a pun there). Imagine if the major companies, who are struggling as is, downsized by just a station or two in most markets?

What would result? More money to go to each station, easier to maintain top-notch personalities, everybody's happy, including the listeners because maybe you have it in the budget for some bigger/better things, and last but not least, research. Ratings should reflect it complementary. Is this a hard concept to grasp?
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You are wise beyond your years, Lauren. I'm with you, but I don't see it happening. :(
 
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