Radio in the next 10 years?

[Bannerville]

Fellow Broadcasters,
With all the changes that have happened in the past year and a half with State College radio, what is everyones opinion on where the state of radio will be in ten years from now?
I for one don't see radio as a dependable listening source anymore due to the fact that Forever is constantly changing things up on a constant basis. I target Forever here only because they own a good percentage of the market in State College. I can see listnership going down, more stations becoming more automated than they are now. (Is that possible??) Maybe even more simulcasting due to stations not making the grade. Overall, I don't forsee a bright future for radio unless changes are made.
Is radio slowly dying, or are we experiencing a fade out like AM radio did back in the day and something else will re-emerge out of this? HD Radio has appeared, and is starting to make an appearance in most higher markets, but will it be the saving grace or just another way to twist the knife slowly? I would love to hear thoughts and views on this subject.

 

[shilton]

Since XM and Siruis Satellite radio burst on the scene, there have been people predicting "the end of radio as we know it". It was said that people just won't sit through commercials, etc. Now a few years later, XM and Siruis are missing projected subscriber goals. The Howard Stern Show did not make the huge splash they thought it would and people are now saying that Satellitte radio, while very viable will not be a "key player" as there are only so many people who will pay $12.95 a month to listen to music. Then there are the IPODS but with the crackdown on illegal downloading, only so many people will pay money for songs they can hear for free on the radio dial.

I think radio in general will push on just fine, but you can expect to see a major pairing down on the number of actual formats being offered. Take Froggy for example. Its much easier for Forever to push out Froggy 98 on who knows how many frequencies than to have 3-4 uniquely different radio stations with different staffs, etc. This way you need one air staff, one sales staff, one studio in some cases.

All in all, unless the Feds step in (which I doubt they will), I think the listening audience will continue to suffer as more and more stations are blown up in favor of simulcasting. I do think that the instability will settle down however once Forever finds formats they feel are billing what they want and expect them to. Seems to me the problem as I heard it was not that Hot was a bad station, but rather that they could not sell it (or could not sell it for the rates they wanted)

Once stations build up a following with advertisers, I think they will be safe...but you can bet the markets will continue to be in flux with format swap after format swap for the forseeable future until that goal is achieved.

 

[Spackler1]

Since XM and Siruis Satellite radio burst on the scene, there have been people predicting "the end of radio as we know it". It was said that people just won't sit through commercials, etc. Now a few years later, XM and Siruis are missing projected subscriber goals. The Howard Stern Show did not make the huge splash they thought it would and people are now saying that Satellitte radio, while very viable will not be a "key player" as there are only so many people who will pay $12.95 a month to listen to music.

Sirius picked up 600,000 subscribers in the last quarter. I don't think that's too shabby. It will be a while before they turn a profit, but it is certainly a viable product. I don't believe it will spell the end of radio, but I think people will continue to subscribe, especially if consolidation continues and large ownership groups continue ruin the product.

XM and Sirius provide many channels and many choices. If you're in Altoona, State College, or Johnstown, and want a decent rock or modern rock radio station, you're out of luck. XM and Sirius have Alternative, Classic Alternative, Hard Rock, Active Rock, two or three or four Classic Rock channels - you get the idea.

I can pick up three or four television channels over-the-air with an antenna, but I gladly pay for cable tv. I don't see Satellite radio as being much different than that. People who think what they receive is worth what they pay will stay, and those who don't won't buy.

 

[revbabe]

According to online news a few weeks ago a XM and Sirris stock is so far down for a reason. They are NOT on goal. Even when people are given the services for free to try out with new cars over half do not renew it. Over 40 percent of people who bought the service after a year drop it. The article also mentioned that people that bought used both local and satelite radio.
I see your point but you use cable to pick up your local signals better then you could before dont you? You still watch the local channels dont you? You might watch both. Like the infamous Ipod people just dont drop using radio they do both. I remember buying my first Ipod in the eighties, back then it was called a "walkman"

I wonder if newspaper blogs are all concerned about the net. I hope somebody understands nobody reads the papers anymore. Have a good day all!

 

[Spackler1]

Neither ipods nor satellite radio will replace radio. They are just another choice in a world of choices.

 

[skymax]

There isn't one solitary thing that will kill local radio but satellite radio isn't going away and its one more thing, amongst many that didn't exist a few years ago, that will distract listeners and its already turned some people off local stations completely. Don't fool yourself. In my opinion, satellite is a significant player as they continue to market and improve but part of the discussion must be consolidation which has rewarded corporate owners, thus far, for steering away from compelling local radio, such as actual local news coverage, and professional (read well-paid) LIVE local personalities. Ownerships drive for profit has taken the life out of radio while they seem to ignore the aspects of radio which really made it a great medium for a long time. Lets hope the upcoming public discussions with the FCC concerning ownership rules eventually leads us back to where radio once was.

 

[Snafu]

XM is missing subscriber targets, not Sirius. Sirius hasn't missed a target in well over a year. Howard is helping and right along their internal projections, just not yours. Mel Karmazin isn't an idiot. He didn't buy all of that stock so that he could go down financially with a sinking ship. Together XM & Sirius account for up to 5% of some larger markets (Philly almost 6% this past spring) and growing. In some markets they will account for the equivalent of a top 10 station within two years. Sticking point seems to be cost of radios. Once they fall like VCRs did in the 80s the business will boom. Remember your parents thought that paying for "free" TV was a dumb idea in 1969.

Parts of radio will go away. In many parts of the world the AM band is already gone. Its likely that HD Radio will kill it here too.

The future is a mix of whatever replaces the Internet, satellite, iPods, your cellphone and some FM radio. The problem is that there are too many people running radio stations who don't see/don't want to admit that future is coming. The ad revenue is already heading to all of this "new media" and most radio GMs think that its just vanished off their radar screens, but it will be back next quarter because their sales people "don't know what they are doing anymore."