Oh, I'm fully able and capable of substantiating my claims, I simply choose not to, because the evidence with which to do so is freely available and easily accessible, and it's not my job to look up history for you.
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Radio is Dead (and not just AM)
- Thread starter landtuna
- Start date
It's your job to prove you're right, and you can't. One more post, and I'll be forced to once again show you to be wrong.
Ooh, more threats of something you weren't able to do in the first place! I'm shaking in my boots!
Is Josh making stuff up again
How quickly you forget:
Get ready to apologize again. Whoops.
No apology necessary, and no mistake made. I corrected myself. Still digging for that evidence doesn't exist?
If no mistake was made, then why did you correct yourself?
Can someone lock this now
It's went off topic now
It's went off topic now
I meant that I have made no other mistakes and no further correction was needed. And at this point you're simply trolling. If you cannot refute my points (which you can't), it's time for you to call it quits in this discussion.
You said "This business is barely hanging on by a thread right now."
Yet BIA/Kelsey reports the radio industry last year had revenues of about $14.7 billion. That's quite a thread.
Revenues of 14.7 billion... and the major companies have how much debt hanging over their heads? None of them will ever be able to pay it all off without getting out entirely, and even then I doubt they'd recoup their losses.
But yes, let's talk about how pretty Anne Boleyn looks while completely ignoring the sword swinging behind her neck...
But yes, let's talk about how pretty Anne Boleyn looks while completely ignoring the sword swinging behind her neck...
Had you said a couple of couple of companies are in debt over their heads, I wouldn't be calling you on it.
But to say an entire $14.7 billion industry is hanging on by a thread is a major overstatement and totally wrong.
Yes, because nothing the biggest companies in an industry do ever affects everyone else in that industry. Besides, I never once implied that the problems were strictly financial. That's just one factor among many.
But keep digging that hole for yourself. It's gettin' mighty deep.
But keep digging that hole for yourself. It's gettin' mighty deep.
They really don't. Every radio company is run differently. I've worked for a lot of them, and I say that from experience. If CC was to go out of business, it wouldn't affect CBS one bit. Or Cox. Or dozens of other well run radio companies. When Citadel went bankrupt, it didn't change a thing. Same with Regent.
Is the entire computer industry hanging on by a thread because IBM or HP are not the companies they once were? Is that how you judge industries?
You seem to be backpeddling on this already. That was quick.
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Haha! I'm not backpedaling on anything, I meant what I said, and it hasn't changed. IBM and HP are terrible comparisons, because they don't operate in a closed market. Radio does. Radio is based on the use of a finite resource: electromagnetic bandwidth. If one company starts spinning out of control, it affects everyone. Just look at CBS, charging just 50% of their normal rates in several markets right now as they prepare to leave radio. What good does that do anyone? No competitor can possibly compete with that, and then when CBS sells to whoever the next owner is, that owner isn't going to be able to afford to keep that low rate going, so they'll raise it, lose business and start losing money themselves. Even the people doing perfectly well right now are feeling the effects. Rate cards have necessarily shown increased prices, and spot loads have become so huge to make up for the fact that fewer advertisers can afford it that the problem has become the single most-cited reason why people don't listen to the radio anymore. Now, perhaps being wiser, the smaller operators might be able to actually put a decent product on the air and ride out the last days better than a consolidator ever would, but eventually it'll come to an end. All because a bunch of greedy people got Congress to change the rules to favor them so that they could milk the cow dry.
No, no backpedaling. Just reality, plain and simple.
No, no backpedaling. Just reality, plain and simple.
Please explain the relationship of long term debt to annual gross revenue-
Debt is best measured by a comparison to equity, as in a debt to equity ratio. Debt is not measured in terms of short term revenue.
And, while there are a number of companies that have high debt, most look to be able to pay the interest and principal. The few with very high debt will likely find ways to solve their issues; the underlying very profitable radio stations will continue cash flowing.
There are plenty of radio companies with little or no debt. There are many others with reasonable debt. There are 15,000 radio stations in the US and not even 10% are owned by Cumulus and iHeart combined.
As to debt in general... if a family has gross income of $70,000 a year and has a mortgage of $200,000 which they are paying off on time, you would not say that the $200 k debt is three times the family's net income and thus can never be paid. That's because a mortgage does not have to be paid off in a single year.
If you are going to do financial analysis, at least get the terms and ratios right.
1. Cite the markets where CBS has dropped rates by 50%. Radio pricing is dynamic based on market conditions and audience delivery. Rates change all the time, and usually have considerable flexibility.
2. CBS is not leaving radio. They just did a deal to upgrade their major market station count by trading aways some smaller market stations. That is a growth strategy, not an exit strategy.
Sorry, that's wrong on so many levels. One, CBS is not having a fire sale on ads. Second, small advertisers in big markets can't generally afford radio and haven not been able to afford it for many decades. And third, the most cited reason people are leaving radio is because they like personalized pull media like Pandora and spend less time with push media like radio.
No, it will not come to an end because media companies will move away from over the air distribution via AM, FM and TV and move to more on-demand and customizable options... they will still be media companies but with less dependency of steel in the sky.
And what "rules" did Congress change? (Congress does not write rules... they write laws. Administrative agencies like the FCC have rules).
Yes, CBS billed $1.355 billion last year from 126 radio stations. That's an average of a bit more than $10 million in billing per station.
A fresh pile of crap once again with no substantiation. You are the king of manure.
You completely misunderstand the CBS move. All they're doing is consolidating in markets where they own TV. No chance will they get out of radio, because they know that selling multiple platforms is the best advertising model.
Spot loads haven't increased. In fact, they've dropped. MediaMonitors reports the average load break is 9 minutes an hour. That's down from 12.
As for the large companies, all of them put together barely own 10% of the stations. So changing rules didn't really change the make-up of the industry. What changed it was Docket 80-90, over-licensing the spectrum because the government wanted to make more money. And it hurts that the FCC has no solution to the AM problem. Their lack of action has definitely hurt AM. Had you said AM radio is hanging by a thread, I'd agree. But you didn't.
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