Radio is in BIG trouble

[TheBigA]

Sooner or later, radio stations will be owned by people who know how to create programming that listeners want, and advertisers will pay for.

Not necessarily.

Sooner or later, the whole thing could just shut down. Or get sold to people who can make a lot of money selling the use of the signal for data transmissions. Or Home Shopping on the radio.

The FCC wants minorities owning and running radio. THAT is the future. Broadcast radio for Hispanics, African-Americans, and other ethnics. Everyone else will pay for what they hear. It's like the divide between cable TV and over-the-air TV.

The future won't be like the past. It never is.

 

[TheBigA]

Of course, it might not be a "mass audience" thing the way such radio used to be...but in this age of the Long Tail, it doesn't really matter. Just being "out there" and "available" is enough.

If that's the future of radio, then they will have to cut costs even more. Because without mass audience, there is no money for salaries. You can do micro-casting, but only with micro-budgets.

It's not a generation-gap thing, the way it once might have been. More of a cultural-gap thing, these days...

Same thing. The people who own and work at the stations don't understand the culture. It's like Arthur Godfrey with love beads and a wig trying to say "daddy-o" to a 60's kid. He ain't listening. The only way to get to the future is to get rid of the past.

 

[adma]

Of course, it might not be a "mass audience" thing the way such radio used to be...but in this age of the Long Tail, it doesn't really matter. Just being "out there" and "available" is enough.

If that's the future of radio, then they will have to cut costs even more. Because without mass audience, there is no money for salaries. You can do micro-casting, but only with micro-budgets.

If you noticed, I wasn't talking about radio. I was talking about museology, i.e. websites on radio history, vintage airchecks, etc. It's in fact the ultimate micro-budget realm, where current definitions of mass audiences and salaries don't matter at all--but it's still a fandom that's available to all.

So, the future is literally the past, to the point where you don't even have to create radio anew anymore, let alone pay salaries to staff. The only catch might be legalities, royalties, copyright issues, etc.

It's not a generation-gap thing, the way it once might have been. More of a cultural-gap thing, these days...

Same thing. The people who own and work at the stations don't understand the culture. It's like Arthur Godfrey with love beads and a wig trying to say "daddy-o" to a 60's kid. He ain't listening. The only way to get to the future is to get rid of the past.

Not quite the same thing; because these days, it's more like getting rid of the blight and ugliness than simply getting rid of the past.

I find that a lot of kids today are actually more inherently respectful to the past; and at the same time, you'll find a lot of boomers these days who'd gladly join in "getting to the future" by, I dunno, having Rush & Hannity strung up Mussolini-style or something.

Then again, if we look at past mythic "generation gaps": when it came to Archie Bunker, there was a cultural "blight and ugliness" involved as well...

 

[adma]

Then again, when it comes to the Arthur Godfrey metaphor, I do sense an analogy in the current Z/Kiss CHR successes, and the manner in which it's actually the over-25 demo that has propelled said successes. IOW, what once was deemed the "natural" AC demo, only now it isn't inclined to "not too much hard rock and rap" formulii. CHR, superficially the "youth" format par excellence, actually happens to be the new AC: radio for the age of the "kidult".

As such, it's more genuinely successful than old squares like Arthur Godfrey "going hip" would have been--but by roughly the same means: oldsters pretending they're not. Only now, said embarrassing oldsters are the ones being catered to, as well. That is, 40 years ago, the kids would have been cringing at Godfrey. Today, they'd be cringing at their CHR-loving kidult elders...

 

[TheBigA]

It's in fact the ultimate micro-budget realm, where current definitions of mass audiences and salaries don't matter at all--but it's still a fandom that's available to all.

Sounds like www.rick.com

 

[adma]

It's in fact the ultimate micro-budget realm, where current definitions of mass audiences and salaries don't matter at all--but it's still a fandom that's available to all.

Sounds like www.rick.com

Though it's coming from the other direction of what I'm describing in terms of "museology", I definitely get your drift. But the sheer tacky cheesiness of such a site is also definitely Dees doing his Arthur Godfrey lame-o thing...

 

[amfmxm]

Keep these two away from the razor blades! Honest to God, you two sound like a couple of old unemployed jocks knocking down the cheap scotch an hour past closing time. All you need are two pistols and a barkeep to flip the coin to see who commits suicide first.

The whole country--actually, the whole world-- is in a financial recession right now, so radio isn't setting any sales or revenue records. But aside from the handful of highly-leveraged publicly-traded outfits, most of the thousands of American radio companies are nowhere near collapse.

I agree that radio needs new blood--young, fresh, creative people to bring new ideas to the table. Some of us have consciously been hiring those kind of people for the last several (2/5/10/15) years. Maybe not in your markets, or at stations that you sample ("You're not in the demo!") but it's been happening while you weren't watching. Nevertheless, the industry--like so many others--is Boomer-heavy.

Some of us have also been incorporating new media into our business structures, and slowly folding our mature activities into our newer technologies. Maybe not fast enough to please you, but at a pace that should/could continue our success for the foreseeable future.

One of the saddest things about this thread is that many contributors seem to be missing much of the great radio still being done/produced/created on a daily basis. Yes, "great" is subjective--but with so much of it out there on the Good Ol' Radio Dial, it's a shame you're not hearing any of it.

Arbitron & RADAR (2009) agree that radio is reaching 93 percent (NINETY-THREE PERCENT) of Americans every week.

Nobody's forcing them to listen. Maybe they're listening because they like what they're hearing.

 

[Silkie]

Keep these two away from the razor blades! Honest to God, you two sound like a couple of old unemployed jocks knocking down the cheap scotch an hour past closing time. All you need are two pistols and a barkeep to flip the coin to see who commits suicide first.

The whole country--actually, the whole world-- is in a financial recession right now, so radio isn't setting any sales or revenue records. But aside from the handful of highly-leveraged publicly-traded outfits, most of the thousands of American radio companies are nowhere near collapse.

I agree that radio needs new blood--young, fresh, creative people to bring new ideas to the table. Some of us have consciously been hiring those kind of people for the last several (2/5/10/15) years. Maybe not in your markets, or at stations that you sample ("You're not in the demo!") but it's been happening while you weren't watching. Nevertheless, the industry--like so many others--is Boomer-heavy.

Some of us have also been incorporating new media into our business structures, and slowly folding our mature activities into our newer technologies. Maybe not fast enough to please you, but at a pace that should/could continue our success for the foreseeable future.

One of the saddest things about this thread is that many contributors seem to be missing much of the great radio still being done/produced/created on a daily basis. Yes, "great" is subjective--but with so much of it out there on the Good Ol' Radio Dial, it's a shame you're not hearing any of it.

Arbitron & RADAR (2009) agree that radio is reaching 93 percent (NINETY-THREE PERCENT) of Americans every week.

Nobody's forcing them to listen. Maybe they're listening because they like what they're hearing.

LOL - Boomer heavy. Isn't that like telling people they are overqualified? LOL The young blood is often quite good with proper mentoring; on the other hand you have a few smart arses out there who play gotcha and sound like crap, while they bid you a happy hump day and keep right on riding the air, unable to get a decent start, because they're just too smart for the rest of us. Nobody forces us to listen, and trust me, we don't.

 

[gr8oldies]

with numerous threads on these topics the recurring theme is a variation on "let's go back to the good old days" it would seem like our generation of broadcasters may be out of ideas on how to move into the future.

 

[Silkie]

with numerous threads on these topics the recurring theme is a variation on "let's go back to the good old days" it would seem like our generation of broadcasters may be out of ideas on how to move into the future.

Our generation is never out of new or great ideas. You might be surprised by how out of touch we are not, especially when we are played for idiots and then the excuses come bellowing out about how we are mistaken, blind, deaf, dumb, full of imagination (thus admitting we are better in any event), living with ghosts, how they are just putting the past right and any other crap they feel like throwing out there that doesn't work for them. I believe somebody once called it telling on themselves while they run for cover. They know exactly what they are doing wrong, because they have to clarify it. Frankly I am fascinated when I see them come and go, hold out as long as they can to show that they really know what they're doing and how they can get and keep an audience that never does materialize, even when they try to can it.

They either know the material or they don't. It is not about technology, but audience, unless you have a station that has nothing and is not especially worried about whether they ever have anything or make any money...and that would be suspect in and of itself.

 

[adma]

Arbitron & RADAR (2009) agree that radio is reaching 93 percent (NINETY-THREE PERCENT) of Americans every week.

Nobody's forcing them to listen. Maybe they're listening because they like what they're hearing.

Note: "reaching" is not the same as "voluntary listening". If the local Kwik-E-Mart's got a station playing, it's "reaching" whomever wanders in for whatever reason.

Which means that in practice, unless you're an absolute computer-hooked shut-in, it's extraordinarily difficult to *avoid* the radio every week. Somewhere or another, it's going to be "on" within earshot, whether one likes it or not...

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Okay. Let me be the one who plants a bit of heresy right here in our discussion garden.

If I am in the audience survey business, it is my opportunity and obligation to understand what makes surveys work. And if I am a pretty smart guy it doesn't take me long to know that nobody is going to pay me a study that shows that the person paying for the report is failing at his job.

I have no first hand knowledge about how surveys are being taken, and how they have changed.... but I know from reading other discussions other than Radio-Info, and from discussions I have with people I socialize with, and go to church with, There are people who are NOT listening to radio they way people once did.

Times are changing, but the results of surveys about the reach of radio NEVER change.

If I have cancer, I damn well want my doctor to tell me that as soon as he/she knows. Maybe we can do something about it if we catch it early.

Are we sure we are getting honest audience studies?

Is radio management getting any quiet, behind-the-scenes info that contradicts the chamber-of-commerce style announcements the industry keeps making?

 

[adma]

It's in fact the ultimate micro-budget realm, where current definitions of mass audiences and salaries don't matter at all--but it's still a fandom that's available to all.

Sounds like www.rick.com

Though it's coming from the other direction of what I'm describing in terms of "museology", I definitely get your drift. But the sheer tacky cheesiness of such a site is also definitely Dees doing his Arthur Godfrey lame-o thing...

And I was subsequently thinking that if radio museology and historiography truly needs to make intelligent sense beyond lame nostalgia or just-plain-lameness, it has to be the sort of stuff compatible with, say, a "WFMU" realm.

So, inspired by that conclusion, here's an interesting thing I discovered, re where "radio" consumption in the on-line age may *really* be going: via the Alexa web-traffic measurement service...

rick.com

wfmu.org

So, Rick Dees is four times lower in ranking than the storied NYC-area alternative station WFMU! Heck, WFMU isn't even that much lower than Z100, traffic-wise.

Maybe when it comes to traffic, content, whatever, the usual radio parties have been barking up the wrong tree when it comes to what "works" on the Web or otherwise...

 

[amfmxm]

Okay. Let me be the one who plants a bit of heresy right here in our discussion garden.

If I am in the audience survey business, it is my opportunity and obligation to understand what makes surveys work. And if I am a pretty smart guy it doesn't take me long to know that nobody is going to pay me a study that shows that the person paying for the report is failing at his job.

I have no first hand knowledge about how surveys are being taken, and how they have changed.... but I know from reading other discussions other than Radio-Info, and from discussions I have with people I socialize with, and go to church with, There are people who are NOT listening to radio they way people once did.

Times are changing, but the results of surveys about the reach of radio NEVER change.

If I have cancer, I damn well want my doctor to tell me that as soon as he/she knows. Maybe we can do something about it if we catch it early.

Are we sure we are getting honest audience studies?

Is radio management getting any quiet, behind-the-scenes info that contradicts the chamber-of-commerce style announcements the industry keeps making?

Radio's weekly reach has decreased. Ten years ago it was over 95 percent, now it's around 93 percent. And TSL--time spent listening--has dropped, as well, from 21.5 hours a week to around 19 hours a week. Not something to crow about, certainly, but nothing to cause anyone to jump from a bridge, either.

Research firms are sort of like stock brokers: they don't care whether it goes up or down, because they get paid regardless of the results. Same with Arbitron or Nielsen... or Eastlan... or Birch or Mediastat... Pulse or Hooper (Yeah, I am pretty damn old)! Or Gallup. Without integrity, they have NOTHING. Without integrity, there is no research industry.

The more you study the subject of research itself--whatever the research is studying--the more comfortable you get with the notion that objectivity and validity are the primary concerns. And the last thing any of them would do is skew results to please a client. Unless, of course, we're talking pharmaceuticals...

 

[aunti-terrestrial]

There's a guy on these very boards who claims to have been one of Arbitron's best experts before he began consulting. He also just told the board, as an excuse for a very sloppy post, that he's dyslexic and that he can't see subtle differences in the misspellings of certain basic words, like "station."

...Scary, huh?...but it would explain so much.

 

[davideduardo]

There's a guy on these very boards who claims to have been one of Arbitron's best experts before he began consulting.

I have never worked for Arbitron. Your reading skills need some rapid attention.

He also just told the board, as an excuse for a very sloppy post, that he's dyslexic and that he can't see subtle differences in the misspellings of certain basic words, like "station."

About 8% of Americans have some degree of dyslexia. A common effect of this handicap is:

"Letter order - Dyslexics may also reverse the order of two letters especially when the final, incorrect, word looks similar to the intended word (e.g., spelling "dose" instead of "does")."

There is, as evidenced by your post, a considerable misunderstanding of dyslexia. Once you improve your reading comprehension, I can recommend to you some sources of basic information on the disability

....Scary, huh?...but it would explain so much.

Yes, it scares me to realize that there are many, such as yourself, who continue to misunderstand, or, worse, make fun of or taunt those with handicaps.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

My oldest offspring has pronounced a self-diagnosis of a mild form of dyslexia. Among other self-inflicted efforts to deal with the condition, participation with a vengance in Toastmasters. Radio could use some people with the kind of tenacity and CREATIVITY my architect/planner exhibits.

The most impressive and from point of view, the most successful radio station owner I ever worked for stuttered with as much gusto as Mel Tillis, the country musician. While other young broadcasters were doing board shifts, etc. to make sure their first station didn't run out of cash, he was forced to do what managers and leaders need to be good at: He was creative and he sold, sold, sold.

I'm with David on this one. Don't sell short the people who have to deal with challenges in their lives.

By the way: HELL is being a senior citizen and realizing you are never, never going to outgrow your ADD condition. ;D

 

[PTBoardOp94]

There's a guy on these very boards who claims to have been one of Arbitron's best experts before he began consulting.

I have never worked for Arbitron. Your reading skills need some rapid attention.

You do realize that there are other consultants on this board? (In other words, aunti might not have been referring to you)

 

[davideduardo]

You do realize that there are other consultants on this board? (In other words, aunti might not have been referring to you)

Yes, and how many of them were criticized in a prior post for an incorrectly spelled message containing the word "station?"

 

[Stewy]

Have to back David on the poor taste exhibited by referring to handicaps. We all are handicapped in one way or another, some in speech, some mentally, some intellectually, some in taste and some in what seems to be compassion or humanity. Some are handicapped professionally by Cheap Channel (low blow ;D) or other Pretender Corps. If your handicap bothers other people, their problem not yours.

BTW, radio HAS been in big trouble for quite a while. If you see no way back up for the industry then do everyone a favor that still loves and appreciates it ........ GO TO WORK FOR CRUMULUS or CHEAP CH or the like and help finish them off because I'd like to get off the courthouse steps before winter comes again.