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Radio Predictions for 2020



I wonder if the increase in average age also parallels cord cutting and viewers using OTT channels exclusively.

Of course, those replacing cable with OTA reception might still be in the regular ratings pool, but the rest will not be there.


Those are probably legitimate factors, too. I cut the cord in 2010. I work Sundays and don't get to watch much NFL, but on the rare Sunday off I bum off a family member's YouTube TV subscription or find a streaming site (tsk, tsk) or just listen to SiriusXM. I guess I'm a ratings cipher any way you look at it!

How is viewing age trending in Latin America? I suppose football (soccer) is pretty much the only sport watched by great numbers everywhere but in the few baseball strongholds, with no serious competition. Are young people still watching in the numbers they used to? Are NFL or NBA (or local professional basketball) siphoning younger viewers away? Both the NBA and NFL are making major international marketing efforts, and basketball itself is becoming close to the universal sport that association football has the reputation of being. Have those efforts paid off in eroding interest in soccer?
 
How is viewing age trending in Latin America? I suppose football (soccer) is pretty much the only sport watched by great numbers everywhere but in the few baseball strongholds, with no serious competition. Are young people still watching in the numbers they used to? Are NFL or NBA (or local professional basketball) siphoning younger viewers away? Both the NBA and NFL are making major international marketing efforts, and basketball itself is becoming close to the universal sport that association football has the reputation of being. Have those efforts paid off in eroding interest in soccer?

There are only a couple of countries where baseball is played seriously: Dominican Republic, parts of Venezuela, Nicaragua and some of northern Mexico. In Puerto Rico, the games often get less than 300 spectators.

Puerto Rico: #1 sport has always been politics, followed by basketball. Like in many urban areas of Latin America, basketball can be played indoors or in small outdoor venues. Soccer takes more space, and baseball the same.

US Football has no hold in Latin America. I saw figures that the attendance at the NFL games in Mexico and PR was mostly college grads who went to school in the US.

Everywhere else, it's soccer. While Argentina has polo and rugby and some decent tennis players, those are not mass appeal sports even there.

Kids play soccer, even if it is kicking the ball on the street. They go to school and company team games, and go to professional games. Some big cities have four or five teams, representing different districts or socioeconomic levels, sort of like political parties. Buenos Aires has, depending on how snobby you are, 5 "big" teams or 7 if you count the two smaller upstarts in the suburbs of that city of 17,000,000 in the metro.

When I was on the board of a team in Quito, we had 4 other local teams plus the ones from other cities to play against.

I bring out the profusion of teams as it is something that allows each part of the city as well as the university grads, the blue collar workers, the different parts of a big city to have their own team and one could see them play their rival almost every week, all year round. It was always fun to hop on the bus to the stadium Sunday morning in Quito and see two games, 4 teams, and have a beer or four. I could hang with my broadcast crew, visit the locker rooms and just sit and watch with friends and discuss the economy, politics, and anything else, mostly politically incorrect, that we wanted.

The whole culture involves football. Babies are dressed in team colors. There are victory parties in the neighborhoods for winning teams, wakes for losing. In both cases, copious volumes of rum and aguardiente were consumed. Heck, my stations even had a team that played other stations. Since we broadcast sports, we got some ringers on our team who played really well... but my payback (I was goalie) was geting kicked in the legs, tummy, ribs, the unmentionables and the face by the players of our competitors who were, we found out, incentivized to make my amateur soccer career unpleasant. As I said, it's all about soccer... the station beats you in ratings, but you get back at the staff and owner by playing rough soccer! And then we all go and get some beer....
 


Is that average age just for ticket buyers, or for listeners/viewers/streamers of sporting events.

With the price of tickets today, it would be natural that few teens and younger Millennial would attend games.

I think it's the age for broadcast TV viewing. Forbes had an article about the NFL's aging woes, and broadcast was mentioned. The other sports were also mentioned, but I also got demographic stats from a couple other online sources that appeared credible (can't remember them offhand, just the Forbes article).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamha...n-kneeling-employees-demographics-and-trends/
 
I think in some of the sports the average age of fans has gone up a year for every two calendar years (depending on sport). How will this trend affect sports radio? Play by play? Broadcasts of games? Or even will it?

Long term, I think sports play-by-play on radio will disappear. Not so much because I think the demos will become too unfavorable, but because there is no reason to listen when you can watch on your phone from just about anywhere. I've noticed even a lot of high schools now have video web streams of their sporting events, either produced by the school or a third-party production company.

Another key point: a lot of colleges can't get their students to go to their football games. According to USA Today:
The biggest decline in attendance has been with the students. If schools can’t get their students to the games while they already live on or near campus, how do they expect them to show up after they graduate?

https://ugawire.usatoday.com/2019/0...-solution-how-does-it-relate-to-uga-football/
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/alabama-football-app-tracking-student-attendance-location-saban
 


There are only a couple of countries where baseball is played seriously: Dominican Republic, parts of Venezuela, Nicaragua and some of northern Mexico. In Puerto Rico, the games often get less than 300 spectators.

Puerto Rico: #1 sport has always been politics, followed by basketball. Like in many urban areas of Latin America, basketball can be played indoors or in small outdoor venues. Soccer takes more space, and baseball the same.

US Football has no hold in Latin America. I saw figures that the attendance at the NFL games in Mexico and PR was mostly college grads who went to school in the US.

Everywhere else, it's soccer. While Argentina has polo and rugby and some decent tennis players, those are not mass appeal sports even there.

Kids play soccer, even if it is kicking the ball on the street. They go to school and company team games, and go to professional games. Some big cities have four or five teams, representing different districts or socioeconomic levels, sort of like political parties. Buenos Aires has, depending on how snobby you are, 5 "big" teams or 7 if you count the two smaller upstarts in the suburbs of that city of 17,000,000 in the metro.

When I was on the board of a team in Quito, we had 4 other local teams plus the ones from other cities to play against.

I bring out the profusion of teams as it is something that allows each part of the city as well as the university grads, the blue collar workers, the different parts of a big city to have their own team and one could see them play their rival almost every week, all year round. It was always fun to hop on the bus to the stadium Sunday morning in Quito and see two games, 4 teams, and have a beer or four. I could hang with my broadcast crew, visit the locker rooms and just sit and watch with friends and discuss the economy, politics, and anything else, mostly politically incorrect, that we wanted.

The whole culture involves football. Babies are dressed in team colors. There are victory parties in the neighborhoods for winning teams, wakes for losing. In both cases, copious volumes of rum and aguardiente were consumed. Heck, my stations even had a team that played other stations. Since we broadcast sports, we got some ringers on our team who played really well... but my payback (I was goalie) was geting kicked in the legs, tummy, ribs, the unmentionables and the face by the players of our competitors who were, we found out, incentivized to make my amateur soccer career unpleasant. As I said, it's all about soccer... the station beats you in ratings, but you get back at the staff and owner by playing rough soccer! And then we all go and get some beer....

All very interesting, but about the viewers' average age? Any stats available on that? Is gaming or some other entertainment option siphoning off younger viewers in those countries where it's all about football or are young and old still glued to the screen when River Plate is playing?
 
Long term, I think sports play-by-play on radio will disappear. Not so much because I think the demos will become too unfavorable, but because there is no reason to listen when you can watch on your phone from just about anywhere.

If the demos are unfavorable for radio, they're also unfavorable for TV and streaming. This isn't a radio-only problem. Someone has to pay for the production of the video stream. If the sport itself isn't attracting money or viewers, then there's no motivation to stream it either, except maybe for fan video of highlights.

But what I'm seeing is that the company that does the play by play also uses that content for streaming, web content, streaming, and other platforms. In fact iHeart is currently doing that in several markets now.
 
As someone who listens to Christian radio from time to time, I've noticed a trend of ministries -- and we're talking some of the bigger radio ministries -- mentioning that they have had lower donations or other financial issues over the past year. They mention that they might have to drop stations if things don't improve.

Now, we all have heard the stereotype of religious organizations "begging for money", but some of the ministries involved here are more reputable overall, and still -- they sound like things aren't all that great financially. I used to hear some of the same ones years ago and they never seemed to mention their finances like this.

I've also noticed a few less local ministries buying time on stations than there used to be, with health infomercials being run to fill the void.

This may be my own mistaken observations, but I wonder if the same issue facing sports broadcasting (mentioned earlier here) is also affecting religious talk and teaching radio -- i.e., the aging out of the religious teaching radio audience, and changes in the business model?

If the big ministries get into trouble because of aging out of their audiences, and the smaller, local ministries do not see the value in religious talk stations, may see a few religious stations leaving the air by the end of the decade.
 
As someone who listens to Christian radio from time to time, I've noticed a trend of ministries -- and we're talking some of the bigger radio ministries -- mentioning that they have had lower donations or other financial issues over the past year. They mention that they might have to drop stations if things don't improve.

I recently posted that Family Radio, the radio company that had purchased billboard ads predicting the apocalypse and other controversial religious opinions, has been downsizing, and is in fact moving from its home base in Oakland CA to Nashville TN next month. Family Radio owns no radio stations in the state of Tennessee. They mention that they will be selling more of their underperforming stations in the next year, and that this move to Tennessee is designed as a cost saving move.

On the other hand, we have EMF that has been on a buying spree lately.
 
As someone who listens to Christian radio from time to time, I've noticed a trend of ministries -- and we're talking some of the bigger radio ministries -- mentioning that they have had lower donations or other financial issues over the past year. They mention that they might have to drop stations if things don't improve.

I would say it is not so much the audience, but the programmers. If you're James Dobson or one of his contemporaries, whose organizations have been buying time on 3rd rate AMs for 30 years, it is natural to continue doing so.

If you're an up-and-coming minister hoping to reach a broad population, it's unlikely you'd consider buying time on a 3rd rate AM. There's a good chance you aren't even aware of an AM radio station in your market brokering time.

There was an AM in my market brokering time to mostly local ministers. It was silent, then sold, and is now running a syndicated program feed of Christian and conservative talk from Salem. I don't think there are any local programs.
 
That's been going on since at least the 70s. Having said that, the audience for old-line ministries is aging and dying. There's also the issue of the rise of the "nones". Other countries, like Brazil and Uganda, are taking up the evangelical slack, and it was Evangelicals who elected Bolsonaro.



As someone who listens to Christian radio from time to time, I've noticed a trend of ministries -- and we're talking some of the bigger radio ministries -- mentioning that they have had lower donations or other financial issues over the past year. They mention that they might have to drop stations if things don't improve.

Now, we all have heard the stereotype of religious organizations "begging for money", but some of the ministries involved here are more reputable overall, and still -- they sound like things aren't all that great financially. I used to hear some of the same ones years ago and they never seemed to mention their finances like this.

I've also noticed a few less local ministries buying time on stations than there used to be, with health infomercials being run to fill the void.

This may be my own mistaken observations, but I wonder if the same issue facing sports broadcasting (mentioned earlier here) is also affecting religious talk and teaching radio -- i.e., the aging out of the religious teaching radio audience, and changes in the business model?

If the big ministries get into trouble because of aging out of their audiences, and the smaller, local ministries do not see the value in religious talk stations, may see a few religious stations leaving the air by the end of the decade.
 
I definitely think that the Christian audience is changing more to music oriented stations on radio and has been for years. There's also the factor of local churches and even national ministries going to options like You Tube and streaming channels. The church I attend used to carry the Sunday service on WCTA in Alamo, TN, which had gone silent and came back with nothing but NOAA weather radio and generic music. For a few years now we have been carrying services on You Tube. I also wonder about if people who aren't Trump supporters possibly pulling their donations from preachers who support him. I know it has caused to lose respect for several of them.
 
I would say it is not so much the audience, but the programmers. If you're James Dobson or one of his contemporaries, whose organizations have been buying time on 3rd rate AMs for 30 years, it is natural to continue doing so.

If you're an up-and-coming minister hoping to reach a broad population, it's unlikely you'd consider buying time on a 3rd rate AM. There's a good chance you aren't even aware of an AM radio station in your market brokering time.

There was an AM in my market brokering time to mostly local ministers. It was silent, then sold, and is now running a syndicated program feed of Christian and conservative talk from Salem. I don't think there are any local programs.

Those third rate AMs you refer to were third rate AMs in the 80's and 90's when they had no problem getting ministries to buy time, and the ministries themselves appeared to have less of a problem with their finances. I've noticed a definite change, even in just the past couple years. Two local ministries that bought time on a local station pulled their shows. I would guess that 20 years ago, they would have been competing for time slots. And it's not like the FM band has a lot of Christian talk and teaching stations -- it's always been an AM thing, even when FM and TV were king for everything else.

My guess is that Christian talk and teaching on radio is aging out, and being slowly replaced by internet vids.
 
My guess is that Christian talk and teaching on radio is aging out, and being slowly replaced by internet vids.

Let's just say the rich have gotten richer. If you're a big ministry, even if it's local, you can afford your own TV crew and your own streaming station that can stream your message to the world. That's what one church in my area did. They began as a small, part-time operation in borrowed facilities, and now have expanded to multiple buildings with satellite dishes and full video crews. They don't need AM radio anymore.
 
Long term, I think sports play-by-play on radio will disappear. Not so much because I think the demos will become too unfavorable, but because there is no reason to listen when you can watch on your phone from just about anywhere.

Except if you're driving a car. Radio still wins here, either on a physical radio or on a smartphone via MLB or TuneIn Plus. Many states now ban drivers from even touching their phone while not stopped, and some ban any kind of video that can be seen by the driver.
 
Those third rate AMs you refer to were third rate AMs in the 80's and 90's when they had no problem getting ministries to buy time, and the ministries themselves appeared to have less of a problem with their finances.

You're right about facilities like 980 in Nashville being third-rate for a long time. But the continued decline of AM in general means a third rate AM is less valuable today than it was 25 years ago.
 
^^^^^ Point taken.

So, do you or BigA think that we shall see the disappearance of many AM Christian talk and teaching stations over the next decade?
 
Yes. You could argue it is already happening, with Moody Bible Institute deciding to sell its Spanish-language AMs in several states, and Salem selling a couple dozen stations in the last couple of years. For a long time, those operators would have been considered buyers of last resort, and now they are downsizing.
 
So, do you or BigA think that we shall see the disappearance of many AM Christian talk and teaching stations over the next decade?

In the last few years a group called Immaculate Heart has been buying up radio stations. There's Relevant Radio, which is a Catholic radio syndication company, that is programming more AM stations around the country. But these are mainly national operations.

https://relevantradio.com/
 
And it's not like the FM band has a lot of Christian talk and teaching stations
WGHJ, which I used to hear in Myrtle Beach SC before a translator messed it up there, is doing that. But there is some conservative music too. I think most of the network's stations are FM.

Actually, BBN, which is mostly FM stations, has a lot of talk and teaching, but its music is even more conservative than what WGHJ plays.
 
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