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Radio Predictions for 2020

Bott has several FM stations and has bought stations in areas to get more of an FM presence, and they also are adding FM translators.
 
OK.. let's do some predictions for 2020:

- Chairman Pai will announce that he is leaving the FCC in January, 2021 regardless of who gets the majority in the November elections.

- There will be a window for new reserved band (88.1~91.9) full-service FM stations. American Family Association and EMF will pick up a bunch of rural construction permits where there is no competition by more local groups.

- Pai will rush the digital AM proceeding through however there will be very few takers.

- The Auction 106 allotment for Sacramento will go for at least $3M and will likely go to EMF (as predicted by others here).

- 24 AM stations will surrender their licenses or be cancelled by matter of law for being off the air for at least 365 days.

- There will be a high profile pirate forfeiture(s) in NYC or northern NJ similar to the ones we just had in Boston.

- The FCC will issue a Report and Order in the "Franken FM" proceeding to allow the existing Franken FM stations to continue to operate an analog audio service using the "hybrid" method. The proceeding will go into reconsideration because the FCC will allow up to 3 kW aural regardless of HAAT.

Michelle Bradley, CBT
Founder
REC Networks
https://recnet.com
REC: We are LPFM

=m
 
Bott has several FM stations and has bought stations in areas to get more of an FM presence, and they also are adding FM translators.
Supposedly, F.W. Robbert is looking to add an FM translator for WNQM, but I haven't seen any evidence that that has happened as of yet. At any rate, they will never be able to compete with Bott, who already has an established FM presence here.
 
He is currently serving a five year term that began in 2017 and expires at 2022.

True, but it does not always mean that he will serve out the term. He's been on the Commission since 2012 and there has been some talk inside the beltway that he is considering moving on.. especially if his party becomes the minority.
 
Salem selling a couple dozen stations in the last couple of years. For a long time, those operators would have been considered buyers of last resort, and now they are downsizing.

With a few exceptions, Salem has been downsizing its non religious properties.

Rent-a-preachers are becoming fewer in-part because they can host their own services for less on the internet than what radio stations charge. Dumpwater AM's used to be able to get that business because there was limited real estate. That’s not the case anymore.

Salem has been able to keep that business model profitable by selling reach. In addition to providing your programming to all of its stations and a handful of affiliates, it’s available on every major streaming platform, and it will host your services and podcasts via One Place. Salem is way more than just radio today, and it got into each of its businesses at the ground floor.
 
True, but it does not always mean that he will serve out the term. He's been on the Commission since 2012 and there has been some talk inside the beltway that he is considering moving on.. especially if his party becomes the minority.

yeah, his legacy is he killed net neutrality cause it was a Obama Era policy that Trump wanted gone, Trump hated Obama and it showed when he won in 2016 and started wrecking Obama's legacy to where all Obama's legacy is being the first Black president in US history. but that's all I got to say in keeping politics talk to a minimum on here.

as for radio predictions, I only have one, but it's DFW only, my 2020 DFW radio prediction, Russ Martin retires from DFW radio and gives his show to long time de facto co-host Dan O'Malley. right now, the Russ Martin Show on KEGL 97.1 The Eagle is divided by 2 hours of Russ on air live via home studio and 2 hours where it's Russ free, the Russ hours are 4-6 PM and the Russ Free Hours are 3-4 PM and 6-7ish PM. Russ has had heath problems the last few years, both mentally and physically as in late 2015, he had a home invasion in his then home, he since moved out that home, had a Blood Clot in his foot and had numerous issues which lead to his listeners including me question his future on the air, especally in the past few months, where he went on some sort of hiatus which cause speculation that either he quit, got fired or went to rehab (around this time, his doctor and friend Carlos Venegas got busted for being a part of a Pill Mill where he was randomly giving people opiod painkillers without examining them to see if they were really in pain). in fact, back in August, Russ had some sort of issue where it looked like he was on air ether super drunk or very high on some sort of drugs or both high and drunk at the same time. it was not a good year for Russ.
 
Now for my own predictions:

1. Things in my hometown will stay the same. I don't see anyone making any changes to their programming (Myself included) or bringing in a new radio station.
2. I look for Jesus Radio Selma to carry on and have continued success. Will begin its fourth year in February. Excited over it.

Dan <><

P.S. To everyone reading, have a safe new year. To REC Networks, I love your web site. It's awesome.
 
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I expect in the 2020's FM radio to be the same as AM was in the 1990's and early 2000's News, Talk, Sports/talk and brokered programming as the target demos have migrated music listening to music streaming outlets.


https://thewire.in/the-arts/why-we-cant-stream-every-album-at-the-press-of-a-button

Umm I have been corrected again now there is an article showing that streaming outlets are going to be subjected to label disputes in the same way here on radiodiscussions we talk about TV Carriage disputes over cable retrans deals.

TuneIn Just got named in a label dispute over royalties to labels.
 
Pai will leave in the first few months the opening will not be filled for like 6 months nobody wants to work with Trump

FCC will not do much this year without a head
Hardly any translator or lower power licenses given out this year
FCC will take the least act against pirate stations in the last 5 to 10 years
20+ AM stations will go dark
40+ Translator lower power stations will go dark
Pirate Act will be killed for good without a head of the FCC to help push it along
 
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Is there any radio outlet in the running for Generation Z?

So far on the TV side I seen Twitch get named as one of the parties going after Gen Z as they become the money demo in this decade.

On the Social Media Side I seen Tik Tok, and Facebook O&O's Lasso and Instagram aiming for Gen Z.

Or have the radio app/outlets not made that announcement yet as of 2020 on how they will aim for them and we have to wait for the rest of the year to find out.
 
Or have the radio app/outlets not made that announcement yet as of 2020 on how they will aim for them and we have to wait for the rest of the year to find out.

Not sure exactly what you're talking about. There are lots of radio stations already targeting 18-34, which is the millennial demo. These are for the most part stations that have always targeted that demo. The millennials have now aged into that demo, and older listeners (35 to 49) have aged out.
 
Pai will leave in the first few months the opening will not be filled for like 6 months nobody wants to work with Trump

FCC will not do much this year without a head
Hardly any translator or lower power licenses given out this year
FCC will take the least act against pirate stations in the last 5 to 10 years
20+ AM stations will go dark
40+ Translator lower power stations will go dark
Pirate Act will be killed for good without a head of the FCC to help push it along

Well, the PIRATE act was passed and will be signed.

No translators will go off the air, but some LPFMs will as the owners find it is hard work and you can't get underwriting easily for a neighborhood station.

Translator licenses are now given in windows, and most of the desirable larger city channels are taken. So naturally, not many new ones.

More than 20 AMs will go dark; my guess is in the 40 to 50 range at least.

When an FCC commissioner leaves, there is an acting commissioner. And things get done per the party in power's agenda.
 
With at least a few translators operating with their originating AM on a silent STA (2 of them local to me), the FCC will be forced to give thumbs up or thumbs down as to whether translators for AMs can be defacto radio stations. My guess: Thumbs up so communities don't lose "service"
 
With at least a few translators operating with their originating AM on a silent STA (2 of them local to me), the FCC will be forced to give thumbs up or thumbs down as to whether translators for AMs can be defacto radio stations. My guess: Thumbs up so communities don't lose "service"

If this happens more AMs will go silent and to the translator only.
 
Not sure exactly what you're talking about. There are lots of radio stations already targeting 18-34, which is the millennial demo. These are for the most part stations that have always targeted that demo. The millennials have now aged into that demo, and older listeners (35 to 49) have aged out.

True I was thinking at first which outlet in terms of stations outright getting gen Z though. Because I read articles saying things like Twitch (TV) and Tik Tok ( Social Media) are outright getting 18-24 as their main demos though.

I figured there had to be one outlet on the radio side that is doing the same but then I realized it's CHR Radio and Hot AC Radio that has done that though plus some podcasts too.
 
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