Radio's Future-NY Times Article

[Carmine5]

Nice summation of what is going down with the radio industry.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/media/26adco.html?_r=2&ref=media

Of particular note for this forum are Struble's remarks on HD Radio vs. another industry analyst:

“We’re beginning to see revenue-generation opportunities for radio broadcasters” on HD stations, said Robert J. Struble..."

“HD radio is pretty much going to be nonexistent, because they can’t figure out how to get the auto guys to include that as an option,” Ms. Ryvicker of Wachovia Capital Markets...Mr. Struble...said there was “a lot of momentum” with the auto industry."

Although, according to the article, only Volvo has committed to making HD Radio standard in its cars.

Ibiquity did admit that since 2004 only about 500,000 HD Radios had been sold through September.

C5

 

[Tom Wells]

"..a lot of momentum".... I like that. The word does not neccessarily imply motion or non-motion.

The reason it takes freight trains such a long time to start is because of the momentum.

Is this a sideways slap at the automakers by Mr Struble, or does he know what he just said?
Is he hoping investors will mis-hear this as "this is gaining speed"?

 

[pocket-radio]

Since 2004, 500,000 units were sold through September. What? How many were returned? Does that count units sitting in the warehouses of retailers?

The actual number of working active HD capable receivers is probably less than 300,000
It’s hard telling for sure, since 2004 HD radio stations have no ratings. In another 5 years this should be a winner.

Looks like they won't sell their one-millionth radio this year, as predicted early this year and also predicted in 07.

 

[Carmine5]

"..a lot of momentum".... I like that. The word does not neccessarily imply motion or non-motion.

The reason it takes freight trains such a long time to start is because of the momentum.

Is this a sideways slap at the automakers by Mr Struble, or does he know what he just said?
Is he hoping investors will mis-hear this as "this is gaining speed"?

Yeah, 'gaining momentum' or 'gaining traction' are wonderful phrases to have on hand in the absence of hard numbers or when those numbers don't look so good.

C5

 

[KDRadio]

would just like to point out the irony that the NY Times a dieing Media Outlets is talking about another one which is radio..... WOW ???

 

[clouseau]

would just like to point out the irony that the NY Times a dieing Media Outlets is talking about another one which is radio..... WOW ???

Very true. And there are more HD radios out there this year than last year. Bet newpaper subs aren't larger, though. Oh well. It's not like the NYT loses their credibility over THIS story. The headline for the newspaper version of this story would be "Newpaper circulation down and revenue follows". There's really no good news for them. BTW the NYT owns a bunch of broadcast properties.

Clouseau

 

[pocket-radio]

The radio Alliance claims that 330,000 HD Radio receivers were sold in 2007.
http://gormanmediablog.blogspot.com/2008/09/radio-hd-radio-alliances-blame-game.html

And If I'm reading the article right, Struble said they've only sold 500,000 radios through September 08, since 2004. Granted it’s an increase if you can trust their numbers.

Bridge ratings estimated through the end of 2007 to 1.5 million and only 12 million by 2010. http://www.bridgeratings.com. Boy was that way off.

Inspector, I'm all for drinking the Kool-Aid, and being positive, but it’s time to face facts, HD radio sales are abysmal, it’s down right depressing. And you could say consumer interest is indifferent. The Alliance has done a horrible job marketing HD. Consumers are aware, but aren’t really clear as to what HD is. If you’ve flip through the book Positioning, (Rise & Trout) you’ll understand consumers remember who’s first in a category, and don’t care who’s second. Unfortunately, consumers have confused HD radio, with Satellite. XM & Sirius were first to introduce the category. I know, HD isn’t satellite radio and it doesn’t really matter, because in the minds of consumers they’re the same. I wish the Alliance good luck in turning that huge misconception around, experience has taught me its difficult if not impossible. And lots of money and time will be wasted trying. Stock up on the Kool-Aid boys, you’re going to need it!

 

[clouseau]

Inspector, I'm all for drinking the Kool-Aid, and being positive, but it’s time to face facts, HD radio sales are abysmal, it’s down right depressing. And you could say consumer interest is indifferent. The Alliance has done a horrible job marketing HD. Consumers are aware, but aren’t really clear as to what HD is. If you’ve flip through the book Positioning, (Rise & Trout) you’ll understand consumers remember who’s first in a category, and don’t care who’s second. Unfortunately, consumers have confused HD radio, with Satellite. XM & Sirius were first to introduce the category. I know, HD isn’t satellite radio and it doesn’t really matter, because in the minds of consumers they’re the same. I wish the Alliance good luck in turning that huge misconception around, experience has taught me its difficult if not impossible. And lots of money and time will be wasted trying. Stock up on the Kool-Aid boys, you’re going to need it!

I edited out your obligatory "Bridge Ratings" link.

I don't know WHY you insist upon taking FACTS which I present here and trying to obviscate them. It's literally like YOU are drinking the anti Kool Aid. I never promoted the product in this thread. I never claimed any kind of success for the product in this thread. All I did is state that there are more HD radios sold today than there were a year ago. I have personal knowledge of this, because I bought "2". Therefore I "KNOW there are at least 2 more than last year.

Your post just shows what I have been posting about here recently. If you don't scream "HD IS DEAD" from the hilltops on this board, then you are branded as a "Drinker of the Kool-Aid".

I stated there are more HD radios than a year ago. And fewer NYT readers. If somehow you find those two facts aren't "HD negative" enough for you then OK. I guess. That's all I said. I guess that's what you call being positive.

Sorry if that doesn't pass muster here in "Olby-World".

Clouseau

 

[dumber than a box of hair]

Bet newpaper subs aren't larger, though. Oh well. It's not like the NYT loses their credibility over THIS story. The headline for the newspaper version of this story would be "Newpaper circulation down and revenue follows". There's really no good news for them. BTW the NYT owns a bunch of broadcast properties.

Clouseau

Conflating dropping newspaper circulation with The Times doing a story about HD radio or cracking wise about their "credibility" massively misses the point. It's not just The New York Times that's suffering, it's EVERY printed newspaper, and the reason for it is the medium we're using right here: the Internet. Whatever newspapers survived through the era of TV news (which managed to kill just about every afternoon newspaper) are now facing their final death blows from the Internet. Newspapers' demos are even worse than talk radio's: Essentially no one under 50 reads a printed newspaper anymore. I assume you've also heard about the Christian Science Monitor, a national daily which has blown up its printed editions and exists only on the web now. That is the future of newspapers, which will (according to most business analyses I've read on the subject) be, if not dead, at least out of print and on the 'net only within a decade.

Their credibility is irrelevant and you can stick a fork in their business model. What they have to say about HD neither greases their slide into oblivion nor slows it down.

 

[clouseau]

Their credibility is irrelevant and you can stick a fork in their business model. What they have to say about HD neither greases their slide into oblivion nor slows it down.

I don't know that their credibility is irrelevant, but your point is taken. "SPECIFICALLY" the NYT has dropped off in credibility, considering they used to be the poster child for a utopian news operation. Our local daily claims to be 50/50 paper and net as for as revenue goes. And they continue to migrate successfully. Then again, they have been noted for being one of the most expensive papers to advertise in, per capita, in the country.

At least from my perspective, it was a little ironic that a dying medium was reporting on another alledgedly dying medium. Irony. It's ironic sometimes.


Clouseau

 

[Carmine5]

Their credibility is irrelevant and you can stick a fork in their business model. What they have to say about HD neither greases their slide into oblivion nor slows it down.

At least from my perspective, it was a little ironic that a dying medium was reporting on another alledgedly dying medium. Irony. It's ironic sometimes.

You're overstating the irony. News is news. Whether it's the decline in revenue for the radio industry or that the Big 3 automakers are in the toilet, it's still news and worth reporting.

The fact that newspapers (and to a lesser extent magazines) are near-death is irrelevant. NYT is only doing what it's in the business of doing, reporting the news.

To its credit, I thought the Times article on radio's future was pretty well balanced and not unlike what we are hearing in the trade press.

C5

 

[pocket-radio]

Inspector, fair enough I’m part of the anti-Kool-Aid crowd
And I didn’t mean to take liberty with your facts.

Upon reading the NYT article, to learn iBiquity has only sold 500,000 radios since 04, if you’re honest, you have to agree that’s an alfully slow growth curve. If HD is going to become serious, and not just a toy, or another piece of technololgy history, IBiquity and the alliance really needs to amp up sales. Hoping things will get better or comparing HD to FM’s early years is desperate circular thinking.

If broadcasters can come together and provide real programming beyond more jukeboxes
and a creditable business model, HD might have a shot. Otherwise the on coming high tech noise will overshadow it. With CBS and C Channel laying off people and cutting costs anyplace they can, it’s doubtful HD will see the day of light until well after 2015. One millions HD units in service won't cut it.

If sat radio goes belly up. HD investors would be wise to acquire their programming,
and charge $12.99 with addressable receivers..