RADIO'S FUTURE...

[redneckriviera]

This is a thread worth continuing... let me share a few thoughts.

Tillery's original question had two branches: radio's future as an industry... and radio's future in Florida.

Florida is a special case because of the terrible AM signal propogation. The lousy soil really does severely limit the listenable contour of AM stations. Florida was among the first regions in the U.S. to see listening shift from AM to FM and very few AM stations have managed to buck that trend.

On the other hand, Class C spacing requirements and the unique peninsular geography has limited the sheer number of FM licenses in Florida, especially in smaller communities. Very few Class A sticks. As a result there are many sizeable communities that have no local FM service--and, unless the FCC loosens spacing requirements, never will. That may be where AM can fill a role.

There is a lot of doom and gloom hanging around radio that seems to be largely unfounded. Over the past 20 to 30 years our industry somehow came under the influence of the unrealistic Wall Street fantasy of never-ending increases: the notion that revenues should always increase, and that cash flow (operating profit) should always increase. That, of course, is stupid.

But, as a result, many of us now think that the sky is falling when, in fact, we (radio) still enjoy enormous profit margins that place us among the healthiest industries in America.

Yes, you are seeing a lot of cost-cutting and personnel layoffs--not because radio companies are actually losing money, but rather to preserve every penny of the huge profits we are generating. The handful of public companies are indeed jumping off tall buildings because of their disastrous stock price plunges. But despite their prominence, these outfits are the exception.

Again, stupid.

The Future? Radio should continue to do well for as long as any of us is alive. Cheer up!

 

[jmtillery]

I agree that radio still has much life left in it and will continue to play an integral part of people's lives... What has to happen is radio has to adjust with the changing technolgies and listener habits in order to remain profitable... Years ago radio was TV without "pictures". When TV came on the scene, radio adjusted becoming predominantly a music medium. When FM "came of age" becoming the music medium of choice, AM radio adjusted once again by offering niche programming. Many became news-talk, once again redefining radio.

As time, lifetsyles and changing habits dictate, radio will once again redefine itself and udjust to Economics 101; that being the basic supply and demand factor of the marketplace...

Mark Tillery,
Ocala, Florida
[email protected]

 

[John FL]

I'm all about being positive too even in the current economic mess but let's be honest here....Do we really believe the radio business decisions of the last few years have been correct, necessary and have served the public well? How will the decisions made in the past that were aimed at satisfying Wall Street expectations vs. John Q. Public Main Street position radio for the future?

Radio is certainly a business and owners and stock holders expect profitability and I'm not advocating radio should not make money. But as we have seen in other business sectors, when the expectation is for profit margins to always go up and up and get bigger and bigger, the bubble almost always bursts because it comes with bad decisions. Just look at mortgage bankers, one example, who felt the pressure to lend money so the competition didn't get the deal and those initial profits generated would keep everyone happy I guess the ability to pay and character and capacity of the borrower meant little. Now to quote redneckriviera - "that of course is stupid."

I agree with a lot of what you say Redneckriviera but I'm not so sure we should cheer up over the current state of things. The word "change" has been beaten to death during this past political season but I believe the current way of doing things MUST change if radio is to differentiate itself and even have a future. There are some bright spots in Florida radio but overall I'd like to see more real radio people be empowered to return radio to the listener and to grow loyalty and the ever-important emotional bond.

Since we are talking about Florida radio, I'd like to acknowledge some positive experiences. As usual at this time of year, I drive along I-95 from Jacksonville to the Ft. Lauderdale area and back. Radio listening was not as boring as usual. I found myself tuned in for longer periods of time during the drive. Bingo! That's what radio should be doing, drawing listeners in, being entertaining/informative and programming to the local level. For several stations, they made positive impressions on me and that is also key to grow an audience. These are all critical for survival now and especially for the future.

Until I heard it, I would think playing Christmas tunes after Dec 25 would be a nutty idea. But as I drove through Palm Beach County, I heard a few holiday tunes on 105.5 and then I switched to WEAT (104.3?) and I was hooked. My vacation was ending but the music made me feel like my time away was just starting. It sounded like someone was on live Sunday morning and it just all seemed to click. Maybe this will prove to be a wacky idea but I give them credit for taking a different approach. They had a fantastic signal as I started loosing it in Brevard County.

Classic Hits/Oldies formats do not have a cookie-cutter approach in stations sampled in Florida. Again, this is critical for success now and in the future. Reflect the market served and create a sound, music brand that is unique. WMXJ (102.7) in S. Fla was doing an A - Z special and so was the Orlando classic hits station (105.9). Talk about different. I wound up listening to 105.9 for close to two hours hearing songs I haven't heard in years. Man were they good. Again, they made a positive impression and I'll remember them as I venture to my south again.

Hopefully I'm making a point here. Stations who work hard at what they do, establish a style and persoanlity and put the listener in the center of their decision making will be the ones, I believe, will fare better in the future. Time will tell if I'm proven correct.

I am a radio fan and I try to remain objective. But when I was back in the Jax airwaves and noticed nothing changed, no special programming, automation, no nothing - I turned the radio off. If radio is to survive, there must be a need to turn it on. Even with changing times and lifestyles, there has to be a demand for the product. Demand will wane if all that is offered is one song after another with a sweeper in between, automation and no personality. Yes, radio in Florida can do well, especially outside of the Jacksonville market. It's embarassing when the new progressive talker in town is used as an example as to how not to run a talk station. Hopefully someone is going to get it where I live.

Sorry to have gone on way to long. Peace.

 

[jmtillery]

I'm all about being positive too even in the current economic mess but let's be honest here....Do we really believe the radio business decisions of the last few years have been correct, necessary and have served the public well? How will the decisions made in the past that were aimed at satisfying Wall Street expectations vs. John Q. Public Main Street position radio for the future?

Radio is certainly a business and owners and stock holders expect profitability and I'm not advocating radio should not make money. But as we have seen in other business sectors, when the expectation is for profit margins to always go up and up and get bigger and bigger, the bubble almost always bursts because it comes with bad decisions. Just look at mortgage bankers, one example, who felt the pressure to lend money so the competition didn't get the deal and those initial profits generated would keep everyone happy I guess the ability to pay and character and capacity of the borrower meant little. Now to quote redneckriviera - "that of course is stupid."

I agree with a lot of what you say Redneckriviera but I'm not so sure we should cheer up over the current state of things. The word "change" has been beaten to death during this past political season but I believe the current way of doing things MUST change if radio is to differentiate itself and even have a future. There are some bright spots in Florida radio but overall I'd like to see more real radio people be empowered to return radio to the listener and to grow loyalty and the ever-important emotional bond.

Since we are talking about Florida radio, I'd like to acknowledge some positive experiences. As usual at this time of year, I drive along I-95 from Jacksonville to the Ft. Lauderdale area and back. Radio listening was not as boring as usual. I found myself tuned in for longer periods of time during the drive. Bingo! That's what radio should be doing, drawing listeners in, being entertaining/informative and programming to the local level. For several stations, they made positive impressions on me and that is also key to grow an audience. These are all critical for survival now and especially for the future.

Until I heard it, I would think playing Christmas tunes after Dec 25 would be a nutty idea. But as I drove through Palm Beach County, I heard a few holiday tunes on 105.5 and then I switched to WEAT (104.3?) and I was hooked. My vacation was ending but the music made me feel like my time away was just starting. It sounded like someone was on live Sunday morning and it just all seemed to click. Maybe this will prove to be a wacky idea but I give them credit for taking a different approach. They had a fantastic signal as I started loosing it in Brevard County.

Classic Hits/Oldies formats do not have a cookie-cutter approach in stations sampled in Florida. Again, this is critical for success now and in the future. Reflect the market served and create a sound, music brand that is unique. WMXJ (102.7) in S. Fla was doing an A - Z special and so was the Orlando classic hits station (105.9). Talk about different. I wound up listening to 105.9 for close to two hours hearing songs I haven't heard in years. Man were they good. Again, they made a positive impression and I'll remember them as I venture to my south again.

Hopefully I'm making a point here. Stations who work hard at what they do, establish a style and persoanlity and put the listener in the center of their decision making will be the ones, I believe, will fare better in the future. Time will tell if I'm proven correct.

I am a radio fan and I try to remain objective. But when I was back in the Jax airwaves and noticed nothing changed, no special programming, automation, no nothing - I turned the radio off. If radio is to survive, there must be a need to turn it on. Even with changing times and lifestyles, there has to be a demand for the product. Demand will wane if all that is offered is one song after another with a sweeper in between, automation and no personality. Yes, radio in Florida can do well, especially outside of the Jacksonville market. It's embarassing when the new progressive talker in town is used as an example as to how not to run a talk station. Hopefully someone is going to get it where I live.

Sorry to have gone on way to long. Peace.

The rant is fine Often times I get on my proverbial "soapbox" and tell my tale at great length, so I understand where you are coming from...

WEAT-FM 104.3 West Palm Beach is one of the better stations in the West Palm Beach market... I was down that way about two years ago, and I enjoyed listening to WEAT while I was there...

Which Jacksonville station is now programming progresive talk? Is the programming from Air-America, another syndicator or is it local?

Mark Tillery,
Ocala, Florida
[email protected]

 

[John FL]

Thank you Mark for your kind words.

Actually, they have created what they are calling a progressive radio network on 92.5/105.5/105.7. 93.5 SE Georgia, 105.5 St. Aug and 105.7 for Jax.

Without rehashing what has already been said on the Jax board and others, take my word on this that it is just a mess. It is a mish-mash of local and syndicated talk. There are times during the day, each signal goes off and does it's own thing. Sometimes True Oldies Channel is on 105.5 and sometimes it pops up right in the middle of conversation.

Where I live in Jax, the signals are for the most part - crap. All in all a great idea but they are going about it all wrong. One bright spot I mention quite often for Jax radio is WOKV. This has nothing to do with right, left or center but WOKV is just a class act. Airing Boortz, Limbaugh and Hannity certainly doesn't hurt.

 

[Ai4i]

One bright spot I mention quite often for Jax radio is WOKV.

Walter Winchell would get to a lot more ships at sea with the AM, but I wonder how the actual numbers of AM/FM simulcasts where both stations blanket their markets compare with each other. Surely, 690's day signal reaches far beyond Duval county, but according to the Radio-Locator,106½ does just about as well at night. Doing that just seems like wasting a valuable stick.

 

[redneckriviera]

I'm all about being positive too even in the current economic mess but let's be honest here....Do we really believe the radio business decisions of the last few years have been correct, necessary and have served the public well? How will the decisions made in the past that were aimed at satisfying Wall Street expectations vs. John Q. Public Main Street position radio for the future?

Radio is certainly a business and owners and stock holders expect profitability and I'm not advocating radio should not make money. But as we have seen in other business sectors, when the expectation is for profit margins to always go up and up and get bigger and bigger, the bubble almost always bursts because it comes with bad decisions. Just look at mortgage bankers, one example, who felt the pressure to lend money so the competition didn't get the deal and those initial profits generated would keep everyone happy I guess the ability to pay and character and capacity of the borrower meant little. Now to quote redneckriviera - "that of course is stupid."

I agree with a lot of what you say Redneckriviera but I'm not so sure we should cheer up over the current state of things. The word "change" has been beaten to death during this past political season but I believe the current way of doing things MUST change if radio is to differentiate itself and even have a future. There are some bright spots in Florida radio but overall I'd like to see more real radio people be empowered to return radio to the listener and to grow loyalty and the ever-important emotional bond.

Since we are talking about Florida radio, I'd like to acknowledge some positive experiences. As usual at this time of year, I drive along I-95 from Jacksonville to the Ft. Lauderdale area and back. Radio listening was not as boring as usual. I found myself tuned in for longer periods of time during the drive. Bingo! That's what radio should be doing, drawing listeners in, being entertaining/informative and programming to the local level. For several stations, they made positive impressions on me and that is also key to grow an audience. These are all critical for survival now and especially for the future.

Until I heard it, I would think playing Christmas tunes after Dec 25 would be a nutty idea. But as I drove through Palm Beach County, I heard a few holiday tunes on 105.5 and then I switched to WEAT (104.3?) and I was hooked. My vacation was ending but the music made me feel like my time away was just starting. It sounded like someone was on live Sunday morning and it just all seemed to click. Maybe this will prove to be a wacky idea but I give them credit for taking a different approach. They had a fantastic signal as I started loosing it in Brevard County.

Classic Hits/Oldies formats do not have a cookie-cutter approach in stations sampled in Florida. Again, this is critical for success now and in the future. Reflect the market served and create a sound, music brand that is unique. WMXJ (102.7) in S. Fla was doing an A - Z special and so was the Orlando classic hits station (105.9). Talk about different. I wound up listening to 105.9 for close to two hours hearing songs I haven't heard in years. Man were they good. Again, they made a positive impression and I'll remember them as I venture to my south again.

Hopefully I'm making a point here. Stations who work hard at what they do, establish a style and persoanlity and put the listener in the center of their decision making will be the ones, I believe, will fare better in the future. Time will tell if I'm proven correct.

I am a radio fan and I try to remain objective. But when I was back in the Jax airwaves and noticed nothing changed, no special programming, automation, no nothing - I turned the radio off. If radio is to survive, there must be a need to turn it on. Even with changing times and lifestyles, there has to be a demand for the product. Demand will wane if all that is offered is one song after another with a sweeper in between, automation and no personality. Yes, radio in Florida can do well, especially outside of the Jacksonville market. It's embarassing when the new progressive talker in town is used as an example as to how not to run a talk station. Hopefully someone is going to get it where I live.

Sorry to have gone on way to long. Peace.

Great post, JohnJax! Yes, there are some shining examples of terrific radio--even from stations o/o by some of the Evil Empires of radio like CBS' WEAT (Cox--owners of WOKV--is really a pretty good outfit according to my friends in Cox).

I do think we are on the verge of a shakeout that will change the face of radio ownership in the U.S. As JJ notes, radio has lived through a "bubble" fueled by the same kind of myopic stupidity that brought us the internet bubble, the housing bubble and even the little-discussed oil bubble (you don't really think it was supply/demand the caused $4/gallon gasoline, do you?) and the even-less-discussed derivatives bubble--investors chasing the next never-ending upward cash curve.

Today the next wave of radio investors is waiting in the wings--waiting for station prices to crash, just like housing prices and stock prices have crashed--waiting to pounce on stations & clusters & entire companies at much lower cash flow multiples than we've seen in the past dozen years. At 6X BCF there will be lots of activity... lots of acquisitions. And at 6X BCF, radio will return to long-term stability. At 6X BCF, smaller stations & clusters will be affordable for smaller companies & entrepreneurs--the kind of people we worked for when we first began our historic (hysteric?) careers in the sixties, seventies & eighties. (Shortly thereafter it got loony, courtesy of our pals in Texas, the Hicks family & the Mays family).

No, I'm not suggesting that 1978 will suddenly show up on radio's calendar. But I am suggesting that the operating methods of radio are solid, and that the coming shakeout will recreate the radio business in a form much closer to what it was like in 1978 than what it has been like in 2008.