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Ratings Behind the Numbers

R

ripvanwinkle

I predicted that JACK and KLSY with their new
formats would be the story of the Spring book and everyone laughed
on this board. I just got a look at the numbers and for the June
phase, guess what? I was right! 25-54 JACK was the number one
station in Seattle in the month of June and up from the one share
range at the beginning of the Spring book. JACK IS the story 25-54.
KLSY is not competing with JACK or KPLZ or KRWM. They targeted KBKS
and KUBE. Guess what: they are doing damn well.

18-34 the story is KLSY. Everyone made fun of my post when I said
KLSY was chasing KBKS and KUBE. KPLZ, KRWM can have the 25-54 females, that
isn't the target of KLSY or KBKS. 18-34 adults are the target and guess what: in JUNE KLSY beat KBKS 18-34 in just about every daypart and is now
chasing KUBE. At night KLSY had three times KBKS's number in June. in Mornings Mitch tied Jackie and Bender 12+, 18-34 and had twice their share 25-54. No he is not beating KMPS, KPLZ, KISW or KZOK yet in any of those demos, but he is beating his main CHR competitor in all three. Maybe it is KBKS that will go Country. At nights it ain't even a contest. KUBE, KLSY, KNDD in JUNE and KBKS
was not even top five.

If I am a smart advertiser I would take a good look at KLSY as your 18-34 station along with KUBE and KMPS. KBKS is beaten, KUBE is watching.
I can't print the numbers, but take a second look at June. I may be new
from Denver, but I can see winning stations. CHR's build from nights
and KLSY is number two 18-34. Quit looking at KLSY as an AC, it is THE Mainstream Top 40 in Seattle, the June trend tells the story behind the numbers. Maybe it takes an outsider to give you all perspective.
This should put an end to the bashing of KLSY. KUBE will take time to beat,
but Sandusky is known for its patience.
 
> I predicted that JACK and KLSY with their new
> formats would be the story of the Spring book and everyone
> laughed
> on this board. I just got a look at the numbers and for the
> June
> phase, guess what? I was right! 25-54 JACK was the number
> one
> station in Seattle in the month of June and up from the one
> share
> range at the beginning of the Spring book. JACK IS the
> story 25-54.
> KLSY is not competing with JACK or KPLZ or KRWM. They
> targeted KBKS
> and KUBE. Guess what: they are doing damn well.
>
> 18-34 the story is KLSY. Everyone made fun of my post when I
> said
> KLSY was chasing KBKS and KUBE. KPLZ, KRWM can have the
> 25-54 females, that
> isn't the target of KLSY or KBKS. 18-34 adults are the
> target and guess what: in JUNE KLSY beat KBKS 18-34 in just
> about every daypart and is now
> chasing KUBE. At night KLSY had three times KBKS's number
> in June. in Mornings Mitch tied Jackie and Bender 12+, 18-34
> and had twice their share 25-54. No he is not beating KMPS,
> KPLZ, KISW or KZOK yet in any of those demos, but he is
> beating his main CHR competitor in all three. Maybe it is
> KBKS that will go Country. At nights it ain't even a
> contest. KUBE, KLSY, KNDD in JUNE and KBKS
> was not even top five.
>
> If I am a smart advertiser I would take a good look at KLSY
> as your 18-34 station along with KUBE and KMPS. KBKS is
> beaten, KUBE is watching.
> I can't print the numbers, but take a second look at June.
> I may be new
> from Denver, but I can see winning stations. CHR's build
> from nights
> and KLSY is number two 18-34. Quit looking at KLSY as an AC,
> it is THE Mainstream Top 40 in Seattle, the June trend tells
> the story behind the numbers. Maybe it takes an outsider to
> give you all perspective.
> This should put an end to the bashing of KLSY. KUBE will
> take time to beat,
> but Sandusky is known for its patience.
>
You're smokin' a fattie Mr. Denver. If you take a closer look at KLSY's numbers you will see they had a freak book with MEN 25-34. Not a demo they've been targeting. They're after WOMEN with that format and in the same slice (Women 25-34) they got bitch slapped.

Face it...you're too unfamiliar with the market and the disaster that is KLSY to make any accurate predictions. KLSY is as stinky as a dead and festering fish in the Seattle summer sun! The only thing stinkier is Marc Kaye's brain that keeps that format merry-go-round spinning wildly out of control!

Go Country Marc. You can probably pull a 3 share pretty quick...something you'll never get on KLSY. God only knows if you can sell it though!
 
Advertisers do not look at one trend or even one book for
that matter. They look at two or four book averages. Be
very careful about assuming a station is doing well based
on just one trend. The Spring book, and for that matter
the winter and fall books were not good for KLSY in any demo.
Though they may have beaten KBKS in one phase, it means very
little. To be fair, even in the last phase they weren't that
strong in mornings or anywhere else. The top stations 18-34
morning adults in June were in order:
KUBE
KPLZ
KNDD
KMPS
KISW

The big winner appears to be KNDD which has shown four straight months
of growth, probably because KRQI is gone. As an advertiser I would stick
with KUBE 18-34, KMPS, KISW and start looking at KNDD or KPLZ as a possible
option depending on the demo. KLSY will need to crack the top five over a
period of books, not just one trend to command any attention 18-34. KBKS
is still viable as a second tier station, though on a four book they remain
pretty strong. I wouldn't write them off just yet and if they collapse it
it appears KNDD may be the eventual winner to challenge KUBE. Niether KBKS
or KLSY is a player 25-54 anymore and that is where the real dollars are.
 
Freak: You're right. Anyone with access to ARB & Maximiser knows virtually every statement he made is false. Too bad the real numbers cannot be posted, as it would clear up many of the inaccuracies posted whenever the ratings come out. Anyone who reads ratings posts should take it all with a health grain of salt unless you have access to ARBITRON itself.


> You're smokin' a fattie Mr. Denver. If you take a closer
> look at KLSY's numbers you will see they had a freak book
> with MEN 25-34. Not a demo they've been targeting. They're
> after WOMEN with that format and in the same slice (Women
> 25-34) they got bitch slapped.
>
> Face it...you're too unfamiliar with the market and the
> disaster that is KLSY to make any accurate predictions.
> KLSY is as stinky as a dead and festering fish in the
> Seattle summer sun! The only thing stinkier is Marc Kaye's
> brain that keeps that format merry-go-round spinning wildly
> out of control!
>
> Go Country Marc. You can probably pull a 3 share pretty
> quick...something you'll never get on KLSY. God only knows
> if you can sell it though!
>
 
Mr. Van Winkle>

I will take it upon myself to be your mentor, since you are
new to predicting and new to town. Some basic rules to my game:

1. You must predict the outcome of more than one station. You may
work for the company and have access to research on a single station.

2. One trend does not a station make. Your predictions were for
the Spring book and you batted 30%. Don't give up, but don't search
for small demos in a single trend to prove your point. You must win
12+ or 25-54 to really count your prediction as coming true. KLSY and
JACK did not win the Spring book in any demo...sorry. KLSY was
particularly bad. They may be taking on KBKS, but if both stations
tank, you still don't have a winner, just because KLSY tanked less.

3. Predict outcomes outside your own company. Take a risk.

4. Admit if you are wrong. I know since you have come to town
I have never been wrong on this board. Occationally even I make
mistakes. Just recently someone pointed out that Pat Cashman was
going back on the radio, I thought he was headed to TV. I admitted
my mistake, even though the poster couldn't say what radio station
Pat was heading to. Be generous in admitting your faults.

5. Once you start batting 80% on your predictions, you can join the
league of IKNOWITALL. Be confident, be true to your instincts and you
too can KNOWITALL!

PEACE OUT.
 
JohnMack is correct. Again we cannot post 18-34 numbers.
Here are the facts:

A. Both KBKS and KLSY had poor books.
B. In the June phase, like it really matters, KLSY beat KBKS
soundly at night and on weekends only. KBKS won mornings, afternoons
and middays.
C. In the June phase neither station was top five 18-34 in the morning,
KBKS finished 7th and KLSY 10th. So why brag?

Please folks it was a stinking trend, let it go. While it is true
nights are the place CHR's take off, one trend means nothing I am
sorry to say. KBKS, though off, soundly beat KLSY for the Spring
book CHR battle. Round one goes to KBKS, except maybe nights.
The funny part about this is KUBE and KNDD are the real winners
here, both solid through the entire Spring book 18-34.

LOOK AT THE WHOLE BOOK AND TWO TO FOUR BOOK TRENDS!!!!!!
 
> The big winner appears to be KNDD which has shown four
> straight months
> of growth, probably because KRQI is gone.

How is the KNDD Morning Show doing (The Morning Alternative)...

Since the addition of Jennifer White it has become a bit more chatty - but I still really like it. My favorite morning non news show in the market. I like the music, I like the talking about the music, and I like the more relaxed pace it has. I'm hoping its growing enough that Entercom will see its potential and not pull the plug and bring in another out of town morning show.
 
> Just recently someone pointed out that Pat Cashman was
> going back on the radio, I thought he was headed to TV. I
> admitted my mistake, even though the poster couldn't say what radio
> station Pat was heading to.

FYI .. I can think of "1000" reasons why someone would want to listen Monday morning.
 
What's funny about this is how everyone gets riled up about someone making predictions about ratings. And while there are some very valid comments, both pro and con to the original poster, some people need to realize (with no disrespect to the management nor its moderators) that this is a stinking radio internet discussion board.

GET A GRIP, folks.

I'm all for correcting factual inaccuracies, but for some people to come on here and make predictions and others to reply in a jealous rage, none of those actions get anyone anywhere. Again, this is just a very microscopic part of cyberspace. I just don't get what any of it accomplishes.
 
Well said, broadcasting is a business built on predictions and polling data and every time a new show hits the air somebody is predicting it is going to do better than the program it replaced and I think they call those folks PD's.


> What's funny about this is how everyone gets riled up about
> someone making predictions about ratings. And while there
> are some very valid comments, both pro and con to the
> original poster, some people need to realize (with no
> disrespect to the management nor its moderators) that this
> is a stinking radio internet discussion board.
>
> GET A GRIP, folks.
>
> I'm all for correcting factual inaccuracies, but for some
> people to come on here and make predictions and others to
> reply in a jealous rage, none of those actions get anyone
> anywhere. Again, this is just a very microscopic part of
> cyberspace. I just don't get what any of it accomplishes.
>
 
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