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Ratings: IKNOWITALL RULES AGAIN!

I

IKnowItAll

Guest
Hold me! I am stunned by my own predicting ability. Here were the
stations I said would go up in the key 25-54 demo and hold me, hold me
I was right again!

KIRO (up big time across the Board)
KRWM (up big time, especially in ladies)
KPLZ (up a bit, very strong in women)
KWJZ (Up big time across the Board)
KNDD (Up a tiny bit)
KBSG (Up a tiny bit)
KBKS (flat)

JACK was the big ratings winner, but that was too easy a prediction to go up and JACK will be the big loser in 2006, also too easy to predict. What is so
amazing is that all of the above stations were NOT easy to predict especially
when you are predicting the key adult demo. Don't try this at home, leave it
to the professional: IKNOWITALL

The stations I predicted would go up in the demos that count either were up or flat. Home run! Winner! Once again I am your rajah of ratings, the prince
of predictions. I love goin out on top!

PEACE OUT.
 
When I looked at the 12+ numbers I thought you were wrong, but
turns out you hit things on the money in the money demos. Well
done. I will miss your posts and miss you at the BUZZ.

Again each book fascinates me how consistent this market is, with
the exception of the fad JACK format. Even with JACK, KMPS and KZOK
remain strong in 25-54 adults. In the same male demo in the morning it
is STERN, RIVERS, ICABOD. Women demo it is WARM with Christmas Music,
KENT AND ALAN and ICABOD. Even with JACK the top stations are still
on top where it counts.

Predicting will probably be too easy from now on. Let me guess:
JACK will decline, WOLF will grow, KMPS will decline, KLSY will
change format, KISW will decline without STERN and WARM will decline
without Christmas music. No wonder iknowitall stops predicting it is
so easy a rep firm guy can do it!
 
Way to go Iknowitall!!!!! I will miss your
posts too. I agree with djdan that MIX 92.5 will
change format and they are doing big study now. What
is the market hole? KBKS looks like they may need
a format change too after declining for four books.
I wonder is KLSY will go straight ahead CHR since KBKS
is not delivering, especially in morning drive where
T-MAN has close to three times KBKS's numbers. My bet
is KBKS goes ROCK to partner with KZOK and battle Entercom's
KISW and the END. KLSY goes CHR to finish off KPLZ and pick
up KBKS's fans that have left. A good CHR with a cutting
edge morning show is a huge missing in Seattle. What better
position for MIX 92.5 to take, especially if KBKS vacates.
>
 
Interesting speculation, but I doubt you are right.
KBKS has declined over four books and the morning show is
very ratings weak right now. However, the KBKS PD is sharp and
will make adjustments. Infinity already has a partner
for KZOK with KJAQ-FM. KBKS will stay the course and make
changes, they are a top ten billing station in Seattle.

KLSY will need to change. From a sales point of view I would
hope they go Active Rock. There is beer and car dealer money
to be made. If you are a male in Seattle listening to morning
radio there is no rock music on a full-power FM in Seattle anymore.
END is talk, KZOK is Talk, KISW is Talk and the BUZZ is Country.
Sandusky has solid Rock stations in Phoenix that bill millions.
That is the hole in the market. My guess is KLSY will give up
going after KPLZ. There is not much audience for HOT/AC and KPLZ
owns them all in the key demos, plus bills like a monster. KLSY
would find the same problem if they go CHR. There is not room
for two and only one is going to get agency dollars.
 
What Know It All Didn't Mention...

Look a little closer Mr or Ms. Know It All...KIRO really didn't do all that well. In fact, I'm surprised that you made not mention of how well KVI did against them in a very important demo and dayparts.... and for that matter KPTK. If KIRO thinks they're going to be a talk station, they have some heady competition. I've also heard that Seahawks listening may actually be down from last year....quite a surprise - even more of a shame, because KIRO isn't even taking advantage of what Hawk cume is coming into their station on Sundays.
 
"My bet is KBKS goes ROCK to partner with KZOK and battle Entercom's KISW and the END. KLSY goes CHR to finish off KPLZ and pick up KBKS's fans that have left."
> >
>
What are you smoking dude? KBKS won't be dropping CHR for ROCK..that would be financial suicide for a station that is billing very well and is quite happy in the profit department.

KLSY Going CHR to finish off KPLZ?!? How could KLSY going CHR finish of KPLZ...who's auidence doesn't want CHR? I don't get it....
 
Format Flips

> Way to go Iknowitall!!!!! I will miss your
> posts too. I agree with djdan that MIX 92.5 will
> change format and they are doing big study now. What
> is the market hole? KBKS looks like they may need
> a format change too after declining for four books.
> I wonder is KLSY will go straight ahead CHR since KBKS
> is not delivering, especially in morning drive where
> T-MAN has close to three times KBKS's numbers. My bet
> is KBKS goes ROCK to partner with KZOK and battle Entercom's
> KISW and the END. KLSY goes CHR to finish off KPLZ and pick
> up KBKS's fans that have left. A good CHR with a cutting
> edge morning show is a huge missing in Seattle. What better
> position for MIX 92.5 to take, especially if KBKS vacates.

Talk about supposition on top of supposition.

I have to chuckle as I read these kinds of posts. It seems many people think that flipping format is like switching songs on your iPod. Here, it's all about "going straight shead CHR" and "finishing off" stations rather than thinking about the whole picture. This isn't the 1980s anymore, chief.

Does any REALLY know what groups/owners/GMs have to think about before even contemplating changing format? Djdan and IKnowItAll knows, but few others seem to.

If you knew how many times radio stations consider changing format (exploration of formats, ramifications, etc.), your head would spin. Fact of the matter is, it's wise for stations to EXPLORE other formats, but many times it just doesn't make business sense to pull the trigger.

Something that has come up very little on this board is how KPLZ constantly tweaks its format. Not wholesale changes, but little things here and there. But nobody notices those little things, as on this board, it's all about these little things about whether a station is a true CHR or whatever. If you played a tape of Star from two or three years ago compared to today, you would notice some changes.

KLSY tried to "finish off" KPLZ.....twice, and only a complete and total overhaul of 92.5 MIGHT save that frequency.

But don't let the facts let you from speculating in fantasy ways.
 
Re: Format Flips

You can't be serious? You really believe people can't see stations changing formats like Hollywood changes spouses? What rocket science is there to worry about?

You pick one of 4 or 5 formats (rock, talk, country, ac, maybe an ethnic option or 2) that is already being done and advertise it as if no one ever did it before. And then wait a year or so when nothing happens and change again when no one noticed or cared in the first place.

Its not funny really, just sad and desperate chess games for little or no audience. No one believes that people listen beyond 15 minutes anymore anyway.

> Talk about supposition on top of supposition.
>
> I have to chuckle as I read these kinds of posts. It seems
> many people think that flipping format is like switching
> songs on your iPod. Here, it's all about "going straight
> shead CHR" and "finishing off" stations rather than thinking
> about the whole picture. This isn't the 1980s anymore,
> chief.
>
> Does any REALLY know what groups/owners/GMs have to think
> about before even contemplating changing format? Djdan and
> IKnowItAll knows, but few others seem to.
>
> If you knew how many times radio stations consider changing
> format (exploration of formats, ramifications, etc.), your
> head would spin. Fact of the matter is, it's wise for
> stations to EXPLORE other formats, but many times it just
> doesn't make business sense to pull the trigger.
 
Re: Format Flips

> You can't be serious? You really believe people can't see
> stations changing formats like Hollywood changes spouses?
> What rocket science is there to worry about?
>
> You pick one of 4 or 5 formats (rock, talk, country, ac,
> maybe an ethnic option or 2) that is already being done and
> advertise it as if no one ever did it before. And then wait
> a year or so when nothing happens and change again when no
> one noticed or cared in the first place.
>
> Its not funny really, just sad and desperate chess games for
> little or no audience. No one believes that people listen
> beyond 15 minutes anymore anyway.
>
If you don't have anything constructive to contribute could you please just keep your mouth shut? Millions of dollars goes into a format flip for a station in a market like Seattle. It is no small task and not something that is done on a whim...You think it is a supr of the moment decision because you have no clue about how the industry works. Just because your favorite station was there one day and the next it's Jack, or country, or rock, etc doesn't mean that the owners didn't spend MANY MANY MANY months researching, constructing, planning, and spending the dough to get it done. A format flip is a LAST resort.
 
Re: Format Flips

>A format flip is a LAST resort.

Again I ask, you must be kidding?
 
Re: Format Flips

> >A format flip is a LAST resort.
>
> Again I ask, you must be kidding?
>

Okay, here's your chance to shine, Khafre.

Tell us all everything that goes into a format flip of a station in Seattle. No bleed-in or rimshot signals....a full-fledged Seattle signal.
 
Re: Format Flips

> > >A format flip is a LAST resort.
> >
> > Again I ask, you must be kidding?
> >
>
> Okay, here's your chance to shine, Khafre.
>
> Tell us all everything that goes into a format flip of a
> station in Seattle. No bleed-in or rimshot signals....a
> full-fledged Seattle signal.
>
And tell me again why a format flip would not be used only as a last resort to save the signal from fading into oblivion while you're at it. It's not in anyone best interest to change a format every 18 months, and you'll notice that most stations DON'T change formats...KMPS, KUBE, KNDD, KWRM, KING, KBSG, KZOK, KMTT, KBKS...look at how long each of those stations has stuck with their format...why woudl they DARE stick with their formats?!?! <P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by mevans on 01/22/06 12:14 PM.</FONT></P>
 
Re: Format Flips

> >A format flip is a LAST resort.
>
> Again I ask, you must be kidding?
>


I'll take your "side" on this one. On a national level, format changes are as common as ever. Rarely a day goes by where you don't read about a major format flip somewhere. I remember the 1980s well and my perception is stations are flipping at the same level now as they did then (or maybe slightly more now).

Now I do agree wih those who say changes are not made on a whim and yes there usually is research done before a format flip occurs,it IS well thought out. But I actually think the cluster structure we have now makes it easier for stations to flip. If you have some big moneymakers in a cluster, you can afford to risk flipping formats on a underpeforming station.

I think Clear Channel has been the master of format changes. In so many markets over the past few years they have flipped low rated dogs and turned them into success stories. By doing this they have maximized their clusters.
 
Re: Format Flips

Maybe you misunderstand? The previous posts were saying how difficult and last resort format flips are. My post was saying for being such a trial, they sure do it a damn lot more than ever.

What did you not understand?

> Tell us all everything that goes into a format flip of a
> station in Seattle. No bleed-in or rimshot signals....a
> full-fledged Seattle signal.
>
 
Re: Format Flips

> Maybe you misunderstand? The previous posts were saying how
> difficult and last resort format flips are. My post was
> saying for being such a trial, they sure do it a damn lot
> more than ever.
>

Really? More than ever? Or perhaps the availability of the information, and your ability to access it just makes it SEEM like they are more than ever...please enlighten me..how many stations in seattle have completely changed format in the last 5 years? 10 years? Note that a format change doesn't consist of a station adding new songs every week, etc.
> >
>
 
Re: Format Flips

..how many stations in seattle have completely changed format in
> the last 5 years? 10 years? Note that a format change
> doesn't consist of a station adding new songs every week,
> etc.
> > >

KTTH (was whatever?)
KOMO
KPTK AM (was?)
95.7 FM
96.5 FM (calls, who cares?)
KQBZ FM (Woof)
1210 AM (Changed formats BEFORE oownership change to Spanish)

It is worth noting all of these are large stations with high powered signals in the Seattle Metro, not 1 kW wonders.
 
Re: Format Flips

> ..how many stations in seattle have completely changed
> format in
> > the last 5 years? 10 years? Note that a format change
> > doesn't consist of a station adding new songs every week,
> > etc.
> > > >
>
> KTTH (was whatever?)
> KOMO
> KPTK AM (was?)
> 95.7 FM
> 96.5 FM (calls, who cares?)
> KQBZ FM (Woof)
> 1210 AM (Changed formats BEFORE oownership change to
> Spanish)
>
> It is worth noting all of these are large stations with high
> powered signals in the Seattle Metro, not 1 kW wonders.
>
Woo hoo, so a tiny handful of stations...you can sit down now.
 
Re: Format Flips

Of course you neglect that the tiny handful were all full powered cluster stations worth millions each if they sold individually. Not mom and pop stations where format flips are truly difficult.

> Woo hoo, so a tiny handful of stations...you can sit down
> now.
>
 
Re: Format Flips

,

> And tell me again why a format flip would not be used only
> as a last resort to save the signal from fading into
> oblivion while you're at it. It's not in anyone best
> interest to change a format every 18 months, and you'll
> notice that most stations DON'T change formats...KMPS, KUBE,
> KNDD, KWRM, KING, KBSG, KZOK, KMTT, KBKS...look at how long
> each of those stations has stuck with their format...why
> woudl they DARE stick with their formats?!?!
>
Mr Robo,
The only stations above that I can't remember changing format is
KZOK and KING. I know this goes back before 10 years.
No doubt, format changes come with extensive research and in most cases require big bucks.
Thanks to all of you for making this web site such good reading for us radio junkies!

PS. Robo, I love you persistent bulldogging of Lisa and her fans?
 
Re: Format Flips

> What did you not understand?

Your reply that wasn't on the topic at hand.
 
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