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Ratings v. Billings

Here's another example of how virtually meaningless those 12+ Arbitron ratings are. From David Hinckley's radio column in the New York Daily News:

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/ent_radio/story/389331p-330330c.html

WABC has spent 23 years building itself into the most listened-to and best-known news/talk station in the country.

WPLJ has so-so overall ratings - it finished in 19th place last fall - but advertisers love its sneaker-mom audience. In 2004, it earned $39.6 million in ad revenue, highest for any Disney station.


And of course "overall ratings" is another way of saying 12+.

WABC and WPLJ are both Disney-owned stations.
 
What else can you do with an AM license?

Music on AM is dead.

That leaves talk, brokered, religion or foreign language.
And talk (conservative, liberal, advice, lifestyle and sports)are the only commercially viable AM formats.

Except for sports, they all skew old. And FM - all things anywhere near equal - bills better better than AM.

Does talk skew old because it's on AM (or because the inherent appeal of AM talk formats is to older audiences)?

AM talk may not get the rates FM formats get and it does skew old, but it still sells to advertisers. AM must formats (Real Oldies, Standards or Classic County) get numbers - not great, but not bad in many markets. Yet, advertisers stopped buying AM music, but they still by AM talk. Same demos, different billings. Why is that? Stations flip from AM music to AM talk; audience numbers go down usually but bills often improve. Curious.

If AM talk billings decline, AM talk stations must cut costs to remain in the black. More automation. More syndication. Less local talk. Less local news. More pay to play. Quality declines. Listeners age and/or listeners tune out.

Younger, more affluent, better educated demos go to satellite or mp3s for music. FM because talk and music for lower class demos. What's left for AM?
 
> Here's another example of how virtually meaningless those
> 12+ Arbitron ratings are. From David Hinckley's radio column
> in the New York Daily News:

12+ numbers are not "meaningless", they just don't tell the whole story. There aren't many 1 Share radio stations with a large enough hidden sellable demo to make a go of it, and not many 10 share radio stations with such bad demos that they can't sell ads.<P ID="signature">______________
Read tomorrows "Off The Air" comments today. Read
The Daily Kos</P>
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> That leaves talk, brokered, religion or foreign language.
> And talk (conservative, liberal, advice, lifestyle and
> sports)are the only commercially viable AM formats.
>
> Except for sports, they all skew old. And FM - all things
> anywhere near equal - bills better better than AM.

Brokered is a very viable format. And since religion and foreign-language are just brokered formats with a different name, they are viable as well, provided the operator is competent (ie: not putting in a Vietnamese station in Des Moines).

While the AM band may be more frequented by an older crowd, I've seen certain cases where AM stations do very well among 18-34. Put something interesting on AM and actualyl market it... IMHO, people will go where the compelling content is.
 
> > Here's another example of how virtually meaningless those
> > 12+ Arbitron ratings are. From David Hinckley's radio
> column
> > in the New York Daily News:
>
> 12+ numbers are not "meaningless", they just don't tell the
> whole story. There aren't many 1 Share radio stations with a
> large enough hidden sellable demo to make a go of it, and
> not many 10 share radio stations with such bad demos that
> they can't sell ads.
>
You hit the nail on the head. For some reason people on this board either seem to think 12+ numbers are either the GOLDEN answer or they are complete meaningless.

A 12+ number is like a barometer. If you know anything about weather you know if the pressure drops (barometer drops) then you can be fairly certain a weather front will be coming through. Maybe some wind, a storm, cooler temps, etc. But you have no idea the intensity of the wind, storm, precipiation. Same with 12+. You can sort of figure that if 12+ drops significantly that the station probably took a hit in their core demo which will hurt billing. And vice versa.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> Music on AM is dead.
>
> That leaves talk, brokered, religion or foreign language.
> And talk (conservative, liberal, advice, lifestyle and
> sports)are the only commercially viable AM formats.
>
> Except for sports, they all skew old. And FM - all things
> anywhere near equal - bills better better than AM.
>
> Does talk skew old because it's on AM (or because the
> inherent appeal of AM talk formats is to older audiences)?
>
> AM talk may not get the rates FM formats get and it does
> skew old, but it still sells to advertisers. AM must
> formats (Real Oldies, Standards or Classic County) get
> numbers - not great, but not bad in many markets. Yet,
> advertisers stopped buying AM music, but they still by AM
> talk. Same demos, different billings. Why is that?
> Stations flip from AM music to AM talk; audience numbers go
> down usually but bills often improve. Curious.
>
> If AM talk billings decline, AM talk stations must cut costs
> to remain in the black. More automation. More syndication.
> Less local talk. Less local news. More pay to play.
> Quality declines. Listeners age and/or listeners tune out.
>
> Younger, more affluent, better educated demos go to
> satellite or mp3s for music. FM because talk and music for
> lower class demos. What's left for AM?
>

Maybe *your* darling, public radio.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

>
>
> Maybe *your* darling, public radio.
>

I know you are being a smart-ass, but you are not completely wrong. Except for a few legacy stations (New York's former municipal AM station, WNYC, and some AM stations operated by land-grant universties that started out as part of the extension service), public radio has ignored AM. Maybe that made sense in 1971 when FM was still wide-open and AM was still dominant. Now, public radio is dropping music formats on their non-commercial band allocations for news-talk. The non-commercial band is mostly filled and broadcasters having trouble trying to figure out what to do with AM stations (even some good sticks). Public broadcasters could run AM-FM duops with news-talk and music (classical, jazz, folk or whatever). Commercial AM stations that do not show a profit over the course the most recent license period should go dark. The FCC should then offer any class A or B allocations to local public radio stations. (Class D allocations and daytimers should stay dark and get all that clutter and interference off the band). Congress could provide tax incentives to broadcasters to encourage them to donate other Class A and B licenses voluntarily to public radio (or surrender Class D and daytime licenses). I'd rather see AM stations go to public radio rather than brokered, religion or foreign language (all of which would be banned in a perfect world).
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> While the AM band may be more frequented by an older crowd,
> I've seen certain cases where AM stations do very well among
> 18-34. Put something interesting on AM and actualyl market
> it... IMHO, people will go where the compelling content is.
>

Can you give some examples? Offhand, I can't think of any AMs with 18-34 appeal.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> >
> >
> > Maybe *your* darling, public radio.
> >
>
> I know you are being a smart-ass, but you are not completely
> wrong. Except for a few legacy stations (New York's former
> municipal AM station, WNYC, and some AM stations operated by
> land-grant universties that started out as part of the
> extension service), public radio has ignored AM. Maybe that
> made sense in 1971 when FM was still wide-open and AM was
> still dominant. Now, public radio is dropping music formats
> on their non-commercial band allocations for news-talk. The
> non-commercial band is mostly filled and broadcasters having
> trouble trying to figure out what to do with AM stations
> (even some good sticks). Public broadcasters could run
> AM-FM duops with news-talk and music (classical, jazz, folk
> or whatever). Commercial AM stations that do not show a
> profit over the course the most recent license period should
> go dark. The FCC should then offer any class A or B
> allocations to local public radio stations. (Class D
> allocations and daytimers should stay dark and get all that
> clutter and interference off the band). Congress could
> provide tax incentives to broadcasters to encourage them to
> donate other Class A and B licenses voluntarily to public
> radio (or surrender Class D and daytime licenses). I'd
> rather see AM stations go to public radio rather than
> brokered, religion or foreign language (all of which would
> be banned in a perfect world).
>
You probably know this but, the FM band has (had?) 4 MHz set up only for public broadcasting when it was created (88-92). That is partly why all the public radio stations ended up there. The AM band has always been commercial- FM was created in part to allow public radio stations to have a place to air. Once FM became dominant everyone seems to be gnashing teeth about public radio on FM. It is what the big commercial broadcasters wanted at the time.

Back to your point. I think you are suggesting getting rid of class C and D (as D is daytime and C is 24hrs 1000W). A couple of big class A/B NPR news/talk stations should pull in huge numbers and you don't need great audio for a news/talk NPR. Smaller B's could play pacifica or some such. Since they will be locally supported, big numbers are unnecessary. Not a bad idea- only I don't think we are there yet in terms of low listenership. BizTalk, which gets the lowest numbers per kW as far as I can tell seems to still be selling ads.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> Back to your point. I think you are suggesting getting rid
> of class C and D (as D is daytime and C is 24hrs 1000W). A
> couple of big class A/B NPR news/talk stations should pull
> in huge numbers and you don't need great audio for a
> news/talk NPR. Smaller B's could play pacifica or some such.
> Since they will be locally supported, big numbers are
> unnecessary. Not a bad idea- only I don't think we are there
> yet in terms of low listenership. BizTalk, which gets the
> lowest numbers per kW as far as I can tell seems to still be
> selling ads.

First of all, Class D isn't necessarily just daytimers anymore; it includes stations with full-power daytime patterns and very low power night patterns (like 100w), and hence, they are not obligated to cover any of the COL at night.

As to mwebster, I must disagree. Perhaps you were being smart, but whose business is it which stations are making money? If a station wants to lose money, let them. Not to mention, any station losing money is either totally incompetent or doing a good job serving the public. You won't see a brokered or religious format around for very long if there's not any money being made.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

>
> Can you give some examples? Offhand, I can't think of any
> AMs with 18-34 appeal.

I'm not saying there are many; what I'm saying is it CAN be done. There have been a few markets that did the "hot talk" format on AM and did well in this demo. I've frequently mentioned Leykis getting double-digit shares among men 18-34 when the format was on KOTK (1080) in Portland, and he didn't do much worse when the format moved to a lesser stick in 910. IIRC, Don and Mike did fairly well, too. The hot talk format is on AM in Las Vegas, Reno, kinda in Buffalo, and other places. Of course, it's never promoted like "Your #1 Hit Music Station" is.

FM is considered hip. People in the 18-34 demo equate AM with what their dad, or grandfather listens to. Put something that they don't find boring on AM and tell them it's there, and they'll listen. No, it's not going to get them to listen to the entire AM band, but you only care who listens to your station anyway.

If I wanted to do, for example, a hot talk format and didn't own a station, I'd buy a quality AM and use the tens of millions I saved to market it heavily.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> I'm not saying there are many; what I'm saying is it CAN be
> done. There have been a few markets that did the "hot talk"
> format on AM and did well in this demo. I've frequently
> mentioned Leykis getting double-digit shares among men 18-34
> when the format was on KOTK (1080) in Portland, and he
> didn't do much worse when the format moved to a lesser stick
> in 910. IIRC, Don and Mike did fairly well, too. The hot
> talk format is on AM in Las Vegas, Reno, kinda in Buffalo,
> and other places. Of course, it's never promoted like "Your
> #1 Hit Music Station" is.

Obviously every market is different, but "hot talk" hasn't really caught on in very many places. Other than the morning "shock jocks" (Stern, Mancow, etc.) pickin's were slim, and audiences scattered after 10am. Besides, 18-34 isn't exactly fertile ground for talk of any stripe. I find it hard to believe Leykis gets double digit shares in ANY demo, much less 18-34.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> Obviously every market is different, but "hot talk" hasn't
> really caught on in very many places. Other than the
> morning "shock jocks" (Stern, Mancow, etc.) pickin's were
> slim, and audiences scattered after 10am. Besides, 18-34
> isn't exactly fertile ground for talk of any stripe. I find
> it hard to believe Leykis gets double digit shares in ANY
> demo, much less 18-34.

Agreed, but what age people do you think are listening to a primer based on "more tail, less money"?
 
Re: 5 of the top 10 US billers are AM.

> Music on AM is dead.

So? There is plenty else one can do with AM.

> That leaves talk, brokered, religion or foreign language.
> And talk (conservative, liberal, advice, lifestyle and
> sports)are the only commercially viable AM formats.

In smaller markets, music mixed with community news and events and happenings is still very viable where sales are based on results, not ratings. Only 1600 of 14,000 US stations are in market 200 or higher... the rest are small town, community stations.
>
> Except for sports, they all skew old. And FM - all things
> anywhere near equal - bills better better than AM.

Actually, talk can skew any way you want it. The liberal talk station in Portland is something like #2 or #3 in 25-54 in the market, in fact.

And several dozen of the top billers are AM. In fact, 28 of the 106 stations that billed over $20 million in 2004 were AM, including many that were the #1 biller in their market.

Remember, most markets only have a couple of full AM signals, vs. a dozen or more full FMs. Yet the good AMs nearly always are at the top in ratings and revenues.
>
> Does talk skew old because it's on AM (or because the
> inherent appeal of AM talk formats is to older audiences)?

I can not answer that, as your premise is wrong. Talk appeals to 35+ no matter what band it is on, and the format is broad after that. In many markets, AM talkers lead 25-54, too.
>
> AM talk may not get the rates FM formats get and it does
> skew old, but it still sells to advertisers.

Actually, the good ones get higher rates than the FMs. One of the reasons is that talk is a forground format, which has definite value among retailers who measure effectiveness by sales, not Arbitron.

> AM must
> formats (Real Oldies, Standards or Classic County) get
> numbers - not great, but not bad in many markets. Yet,
> advertisers stopped buying AM music, but they still by AM
> talk. Same demos, different billings.

In smaller markets, AM music is very much alive and vibrant. You are just wrong here.

> Why is that?
> Stations flip from AM music to AM talk; audience numbers go
> down usually but bills often improve. Curious.

No, going talk increas3es numbers, unless you have no signal and are the third station in the format. Even low rated sprots AMs are actually very highly rated in 25-44 and 35-54 men, so they bill exceedingly well... many beating nearly all the FMs in their market.
>
> Younger, more affluent, better educated demos go to
> satellite or mp3s for music. FM because talk and music for
> lower class demos. What's left for AM?

For the good signals, lots of money is waiting,a s always. For the bad signals, there are many niche formats from gospel and religion to ethnic and such that will make money based on the low purchase prices these stations command.
>
 
Re: Fascist alert

> I'd
> rather see AM stations go to public radio rather than
> brokered, religion or foreign language (all of which would
> be banned in a perfect world).
>

Why would you ban these areas of broadcasting?
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> Brokered is a very viable format. And since religion and
> foreign-language are just brokered formats with a different
> name, they are viable as well, provided the operator is
> competent (ie: not putting in a Vietnamese station in Des
> Moines).

Foreign language is very seldom brokered. Nearly all foreign langauge stations in the US, including about 450 AM stations in Spanish, are programmed just the same way any other station is programmed...

While there are some brokered foreign langauge stations, the norm is to operate them just like the comparable format in English.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> > While the AM band may be more frequented by an older
> crowd,
> > I've seen certain cases where AM stations do very well
> among
> > 18-34. Put something interesting on AM and actualyl market
>
> > it... IMHO, people will go where the compelling content
> is.
> >
>
> Can you give some examples? Offhand, I can't think of any
> AMs with 18-34 appeal.

Most AM sports stations have a big presence in 25-34 men.
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> Most AM sports stations have a big presence in 25-34 men.
>
An honest question, out of curiosity: Does this include locally programmed sports stations AND those that take ESPN just about 24.7 without much local content?
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> > Most AM sports stations have a big presence in 25-34 men.
> >
> An honest question, out of curiosity: Does this include
> locally programmed sports stations AND those that take ESPN
> just about 24.7 without much local content?

They all target Men 25-54, with the biggest cell usually 35-44.
>
 
Re: What else can you do with an AM license?

> > Brokered is a very viable format. And since religion and
> > foreign-language are just brokered formats with a
> different
> > name, they are viable as well, provided the operator is
> > competent (ie: not putting in a Vietnamese station in Des
> > Moines).
>
> Foreign language is very seldom brokered. Nearly all foreign
> langauge stations in the US, including about 450 AM stations
> in Spanish, are programmed just the same way any other
> station is programmed...

I guess I meant non-Spanish stations that broadcast a hodge-podge of Vietnamese, Polish, what have you. Much like the (sometimes) Multicultural or Birach model; even in heavily Polish Chicago, the Polish programs on WNWI pay $150-300/hr, for example.
 
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