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Revealing Consolidation Report due out soon

Back in the 60's they also said what Mr. Drake was doing wouldn't work. Let it try, before you call it dead out of the box.

Your statement of general market radio in Puerto Rico, and the other countries is correct. Your reaching after that.

Stick to what you do well. By your resume, you must do it well. But please don't include all the research in your ethnic marketplaces, as research for radio for the rest of the country.

Here in Tennessee they don't use the word ethnic. Its much, much worse than that. And I won't repeat it.
 
David, when you were in Buenos Aires last, was there still an all-regressamos tango station at 1360 AM?

I may be wrong on the frequency. I sure did like that station when I've visited for work.

Do you know if the station I mentioned is a success there, or a bottom-feeder?

And getting more to the thread topic, does anyone have news about the Nashville FCC hearings?
 
Tom, I was at the hearings and testified. I could email you a bunch of the press the hearings received.
 
Tom Wells said:
David, when you were in Buenos Aires last, was there still an all-regressamos tango station at 1360 AM?

I don't know, but I can ask. I chat daily with the former PD of the station I consulted who is now in the record business. I did not lesten to much AM except the major news/talkers (and there are a dozen talkers in the market). Since the market has over 200 stations, it is hard to keep up on all except the federally licensed ones.
 
lash said:
Back in the 60's they also said what Mr. Drake was doing wouldn't work. Let it try, before you call it dead out of the box.

First, what Drake did he started at WAKE in Atlanta, where it seriously challenged Top 40's with biger signals (WAKE was a Class IV at 1340). He then was involved in the famous Fresno battle with Jacobs, where he formed his alliance with Chenault and his respect for Jacobs. When Drake got the attention of RKO a bit later, he called Jacobs.

I never sensed any doubt of the potential success of KHJ except around KFWB and KRLA. It was apparent in the first few days (before which it was a secret) that KHJ would win.

As I said, Drake has not had another hit since then. And much of KHJ was Jacobs, just as KFRC was Tom Rounds (Jacobs and Rounds recruited Casey Casem later to create AT40 and the first working barter model). No more than the group I am with is "just me" the RKO stations were not just Drake.

Stick to what you do well. By your resume, you must do it well. But please don't include all the research in your ethnic marketplaces, as research for radio for the rest of the country.

Actually, I work with things like hip hop, classic rock, etc. People are people, and research is the same for those of any language: find out what they liek and do it and what they don't like and don't do it.

Here in Tennessee they don't use the word ethnic. Its much, much worse than that. And I won't repeat it.

That is why I only lasted about 8 months in Alabama at 106 Kikx... it was fun to do the 4th non-simulcast CHR in the US on FM (beating Dees on WSGN), but the South was anything but amusing at the time.
 
Well, I may shock you. I agree on your posting on the 50's/60's oldies board. Tight playlists versus larger ones is the way to go. Programming is a perceptual battle. As you indicated a Hip Hop station playing 90 titles vs. one playing 150, and the one playing 90 was perceived as the one with more variety. That programmer did a better job of programming and promoting variety, even though he or she wasn't doing it.

AM radio is ready for the next great format. News/Talk saved it. And everything in this country at some point goes "back to the future". Someone will create it, and AM will do well again. Perhaps it will be Mr. Drake. Please remember, that Mr. Drake disappeared because he wanted to. After his syndication programming days, he wanted out of radio and its spotlight. It wasn't because he wasn't able to create.

So we agree on two things. The south would still eat you alive, and music selection.
 
lash said:
Please remember, that Mr. Drake disappeared because he wanted to. After his syndication programming days, he wanted out of radio and its spotlight. It wasn't because he wasn't able to create.

Actually, the reason he was on the beach in the Panhandle had to do with other, non-radio issues.
 
Just going by what I've read in the few interviews Mr. Drake has done.

If all of us idiots would stop fighting over our different opinions, and actually put our heads together to create some new AM formats, imagine would might happen?

Put much like our political culture in this country, we enjoy debating and arguing to much.

I hope a legend like Mr. Drake, or ANYONE for that matter, can do some things to shift radio back and enjoyable once again.
 
Research

Look, let's recognize research for what it is. Research is a way of determining what IS. Radio, sadly, has fallen to the role of taste reflector, not taste maker. The over-researched music lists of today rely on data from small groups of people who have nothing better to do than be part of a focus group.

If somebody called you up and asked you to give up 2-3 hours of your time for a pittance, what would your response be? Busy people WON'T take the time. So we get groups skewed toward the unemployed, underemployed, or sedentary.

Next, research tells us that people prefer to listen to music that they're already familiar with. Now THERE'S a revelation. It also tells us that they're SICK of the music they're familiar with. So, what do you do?

Well, back before everything was reduced to numbers on a spreadsheet, programmers used to use their EARS and take a chance on music that fit the format from unknown artists. Was that music 20% of the playlist? No. Did it always remain on the playlist for an extended period of time? No. But, new sounds, and new artists did emerge from the "underground", and radio was much more vital and interesting than the homogenized crap that we have forced on us today.

Why did that change? Because beancounters at corporate punished programmers who guessed wrong on songs. Are playlists set by corporate? No, but you'd better be right if you deviate from "what tests well". It doesn't matter if you're involved in the market, and you know what's getting attention on the local "scene", and you might be ahead of the curve on a song. It better hit, and fast, or you're putting your career on the line. Not only that, but too many programmers are running selector on SEVERAL radio stations, in some cases with significantly different formats.

THAT'S the situation created by the "less is more" philosophy of companies like Clear Channel. "Less is more" applies to more than just commercials. Less employees, with more work from them has been a mantra from San Antonio since the beginning, and provided the model for many other "broadcast" companies.
 
Re: Research

SirRoxalot said:
Look, let's recognize research for what it is. Research is a way of determining what IS. Radio,

No, research is a way of finding out what people think righ at this moment. How much they would like to hear a particular song, or ho funny a morning show is. Research can not tell what people will do tomorrow anymore than radio and TV ratings can predict what they will tune in to tomorrow.

sadly, has fallen to the role of taste reflector, not taste maker. The over-researched music lists of today rely on data from small groups of people who have nothing better to do than be part of a focus group.

Music research is not done in focus groups.

And radio has always reflected tastes, and very seldom created them New kinds of music arrise, and radio picks up on them long after the initial fans have adopted it.

If somebody called you up and asked you to give up 2-3 hours of your time for a pittance, what would your response be? Busy people WON'T take the time. So we get groups skewed toward the unemployed, underemployed, or sedentary.

I went the other day, for fun, to a focus group for Mercedes owners. It was full of professionals who gave interesting opinions on what they liked and disliked about their favorite car. If it is possible to recruit Mercedes owners, I think radio listeners will not be that hard.

In any case, for radio the important thing is to research people who might be diary keepers (or PPM panelists). If a person will accept a diary and fill it out, they will usually also be párt of a perceptual project or an AMT or callout. And when the incentive is $75 to $150 dollars... free money... people respond easily.

Next, research tells us that people prefer to listen to music that they're already familiar with. Now THERE'S a revelation. It also tells us that they're SICK of the music they're familiar with. So, what do you do?

Research tells us nothing of the sort. Music research tells us which songs score high or low or in the middle. Programmers look at the songs, and make conclusions, like "ZZ Topp is not playable today" or "new songs get horrible scores in the first 4 weeks, and then only half of them ever go up.." And we decide how to use this information to make our staiton(s) better.

Well, back before everything was reduced to numbers on a spreadsheet, programmers used to use their EARS and take a chance on music that fit the format from unknown artists.

That is how new songs have always been selected. We listen to the song. We decide if the artist is a strong pull. If it is a new artist, have they had other recent hits? And we look at the trades or Mediabase and BDS to see who else is spinning the song. And we make decisions. Generally, we do not think of researching a song for about 4 weeks or 100 to 125 spins.

Gee, this is how I did it at my first Top 40 gig in 1964! Nothing has changed.

Was that music 20% of the playlist? No. Did it always remain on the playlist for an extended period of time? No. But, new sounds, and new artists did emerge from the "underground", and radio was much more vital and interesting than the homogenized crap that we have forced on us today.

The only difference today is that there are far more viable formats that play no currents at all. They are library based stations, like oldies, classic rock, Jack, etc., where currents are not supposed to be played. In other formats, depending on the demos, we play new songs... based on nothing more than our feel for the station. Most of the songs we try do not work, and we send them to that great stiff city in the sky.

Why did that change?

It didn't. In the 60's, I called record stores, checked juke box plays and watched CashBox and Billboard. Today, we do call out and use Soundscan and check out R&R and Mediabase. Same thing, newer technologies.

Because beancounters at corporate punished programmers who guessed wrong on songs.

Oh this is major B.S. The accounting folks generally don't even know our ratings. They are financial people, not expected to look at programming or new adds.

Are playlists set by corporate? No, but you'd better be right if you deviate from "what tests well". It doesn't matter if you're involved in the market, and you know what's getting attention on the local "scene", and you might be ahead of the curve on a song. It better hit, and fast, or you're putting your career on the line. Not only that, but too many programmers are running selector on SEVERAL radio stations, in some cases with significantly different formats.

1. New songs are not tested until waaaaaaaaaay after they are added.
2. Things that do not test well reflect on the ratingss. If you bring the station down for any reason, you are in jeopardy.

You might try reading some of the consulant and research company articles that are linked at All Access. You would benefit from understanding how ratings are done, how music and perceptual testing was done, and how currents don't play a part in many adult formats.
 
Normally, I wouldn't bother to reply, but..

DavidEduardo said:
SirRoxalot said:
Look, let's recognize research for what it is. Research is a way of determining what IS. Radio,

No, research is a way of finding out what people think righ at this moment. How much they would like to hear a particular song, or ho funny a morning show is. Research can not tell what people will do tomorrow anymore than radio and TV ratings can predict what they will tune in to tomorrow.

OK, explain to me how what I said is different from what you said. I said, that research tells us what IS, as in "what people think right at this moment." Please try to read and understand the post before you respond.

sadly, has fallen to the role of taste reflector, not taste maker. The over-researched music lists of today rely on data from small groups of people who have nothing better to do than be part of a focus group.

Music research is not done in focus groups.

Really? I guess you'd better explain that to most of the programmers and consultants that I've worked with and for. Perhaps that's not your method, but it sure is the method used by all of the major groups that have clusters in my market.

And radio has always reflected tastes, and very seldom created them. New kinds of music arrise, and radio picks up on them long after the initial fans have adopted it.

Gee, I guess you missed the "Underground" movement of the late '60s, the "Progressive Rock" movement of the '70s, the "Punk" movement of the '80s, the "Grunge" movement of the '90s, and the "Modern Rock" movement of today. Yes, there is an established fan base before a new type of music breaks into the mainstream. At one time, radio picked up on new sounds a LOT faster than programmers of today.

If somebody called you up and asked you to give up 2-3 hours of your time for a pittance, what would your response be? Busy people WON'T take the time. So we get groups skewed toward the unemployed, underemployed, or sedentary.

I went the other day, for fun, to a focus group for Mercedes owners. It was full of professionals who gave interesting opinions on what they liked and disliked about their favorite car. If it is possible to recruit Mercedes owners, I think radio listeners will not be that hard.

In any case, for radio the important thing is to research people who might be diary keepers (or PPM panelists). If a person will accept a diary and fill it out, they will usually also be párt of a perceptual project or an AMT or callout. And when the incentive is $75 to $150 dollars... free money... people respond easily.

SOME people respond easily. Music research usually doesn't pay nearly the amount you quoted.

Next, research tells us that people prefer to listen to music that they're already familiar with. Now THERE'S a revelation. It also tells us that they're SICK of the music they're familiar with. So, what do you do?

Research tells us nothing of the sort. Music research tells us which songs score high or low or in the middle. Programmers look at the songs, and make conclusions, like "ZZ Topp is not playable today" or "new songs get horrible scores in the first 4 weeks, and then only half of them ever go up.." And we decide how to use this information to make our staiton(s) better.

Gee, a song that scores HIGH would be a song that people prefer. A song that scores LOW would be a song that people are sick of, which makes "ZZ Top not playable today". Once again, the difference is in semantics, not concepts.

Well, back before everything was reduced to numbers on a spreadsheet, programmers used to use their EARS and take a chance on music that fit the format from unknown artists.

That is how new songs have always been selected. We listen to the song. We decide if the artist is a strong pull. If it is a new artist, have they had other recent hits? And we look at the trades or Mediabase and BDS to see who else is spinning the song. And we make decisions. Generally, we do not think of researching a song for about 4 weeks or 100 to 125 spins.

Gee, this is how I did it at my first Top 40 gig in 1964! Nothing has changed.

OK, explain to me how a NEW artist is supposed to have OTHER recent hits. By definition, a NEW artist would be one who hasn't had any hits. In the past, there were programmers who had a reputation for breaking new music, and other programmers followed them. Now, it's who's getting greased by the recording companies (outside of NY state and out of reach of Eliot Spitzer), and who's being added to "spin programs". The trades and MediaBase are skewed by the spin programs, and local programmers are under pressure to play "safe" records in order to avoid scrutiny by the "format" VP at corporate.

Was that music 20% of the playlist? No. Did it always remain on the playlist for an extended period of time? No. But, new sounds, and new artists did emerge from the "underground", and radio was much more vital and interesting than the homogenized crap that we have forced on us today.

The only difference today is that there are far more viable formats that play no currents at all. They are library based stations, like oldies, classic rock, Jack, etc., where currents are not supposed to be played. In other formats, depending on the demos, we play new songs... based on nothing more than our feel for the station. Most of the songs we try do not work, and we send them to that great stiff city in the sky.

There have always been formats that didn't play new music. There are less stations playing new music now than in the past. That's because corporate has dictated that programmers focus on 25-54, and the safe way to get those listeners is with music that they already know. That's one of the factors in making radio less entertaining that it was in the past.

Why did that change?

It didn't. In the 60's, I called record stores, checked juke box plays and watched CashBox and Billboard. Today, we do call out and use Soundscan and check out R&R and Mediabase. Same thing, newer technologies.

And play the same thing that everybody else plays. You still base you selections on numbers, not aesthetics.

Because beancounters at corporate punished programmers who guessed wrong on songs.

Oh this is major B.S. The accounting folks generally don't even know our ratings. They are financial people, not expected to look at programming or new adds.

Beancounters are not just accountants. Beancounters are people that base everything on numbers, and try to reduce music from "art form" to "product".

Are playlists set by corporate? No, but you'd better be right if you deviate from "what tests well". It doesn't matter if you're involved in the market, and you know what's getting attention on the local "scene", and you might be ahead of the curve on a song. It better hit, and fast, or you're putting your career on the line. Not only that, but too many programmers are running selector on SEVERAL radio stations, in some cases with significantly different formats.

1. New songs are not tested until waaaaaaaaaay after they are added.
2. Things that do not test well reflect on the ratingss. If you bring the station down for any reason, you are in jeopardy.

Which means that you'd better be right if you deviate from "what tests well", or from "what SoundScan, R&R, and MediaBase say that everyone else is playing". What YOUR market responds well to be damned, do what everybody else is doing or "you are in jeopardy".

You might try reading some of the consulant and research company articles that are linked at All Access. You would benefit from understanding how ratings are done, how music and perceptual testing was done, and how currents don't play a part in many adult formats.

I have read more than enough articles, listened to more than enough consultants, and understand very well the methodology used by Arbitron. I understand that most adult formats don't even play current music by core artists who are still producing new music. Oddly, a lot of those albums sell well, even though they're not deemed fit for airplay.

I'm sure that you'll have a response to this overlong post, but I've found that I have little interest in your point of view, David. You post the same thing over and over - "Corporate is good. Big companies mean better radio. Consolidation is good." It reminds me of the movie Wall Street, with the mantra "Greed is good". Good for WHO? Not radio, not artists, not listeners, not sponsors who are priced out of the market, and not stockholders who get screwed when companies get taken private. Good for a few who manage to sell others a bill of goods, then cash out before the sh*t hits the fan. It's a short-term strategy that has damaged radio as a medium, and broadcasting as an industry.
 
Re: Normally, I wouldn't bother to reply, but..

SirRoxalot said:
]

OK, explain to me how what I said is different from what you said. I said, that research tells us what IS, as in "what people think right at this moment." Please try to read and understand the post before you respond.

Rudeness seldom makes a point, although it is the first step (profanity is the second) in trying o distract attention from one's losing an argument.

Research does not show what radio is (which is what you said). It shows how listeners perceive radio at the moment or referenced to the past. Listeners, for the most part, have know knowledge of what radio is or how it works. they know what they like and dislike, and can only frame radio using that ñpoint of reference.

I said, "Music research is not done in focus groups"

Really? I guess you'd better explain that to most of the programmers and consultants that I've worked with and for. Perhaps that's not your method, but it sure is the method used by all of the major groups that have clusters in my market.

I have never heard of music research (meaing song by song testing) being done in a focus group, and I have used Coleman, Critical Mass, Broadcast Architecture and Edison in recent years, in addition to what I do directly. Focus groups are unstructured and qualitative. AMTs are structured and quantitative. You can get perceptions of different music blends in a focus group, but not test music.

I said, " And radio has always reflected tastes, and very seldom created them. New kinds of music arrise, and radio picks up on them long after the initial fans have adopted it. "

Gee, I guess you missed the "Underground" movement of the late '60s, the "Progressive Rock" movement of the '70s, the "Punk" movement of the '80s, the "Grunge" movement of the '90s, and the "Modern Rock" movement of today. Yes, there is an established fan base before a new type of music breaks into the mainstream. At one time, radio picked up on new sounds a LOT faster than programmers of today.

Actually, I owned a progressive station. What such statins did was grab onto the things a group of music partisans were picking up on independently, and play the music. Stations saw that there was a growing interest and began programming harder and purer rock. It did not start on radio... radio simply picked up on it.

If somebody called you up and asked you to give up 2-3 hours of your time for a pittance, what would your response be? Busy people WON'T take the time. So we get groups skewed toward the unemployed, underemployed, or sedentary.

(referring to music test participation and incentives)

SOME people respond easily. Music research usually doesn't pay nearly the amount you quoted.

We do not do a census of listeners, just a cross section. It does not matter how many decliners there are, just whether you can get your recruit specs to be present at the test. And AMT payments are today in the $75 to $150 range ($150 is what it takes to get turn out on Long Island, for example.) In some smaller markets, it is possible that $60 might work, but that is kind of risky these days.

OK, explain to me how a NEW artist is supposed to have OTHER recent hits.

And this is why new artists have a harder time. If I have some new songs, and only have one open slot, i will pick the superstar first. If there is no new superstar song, I go with the up and comer who has had recent big hits. Only if I have neither of those will I play a new artist (assuming all the songs were the same on all other counts... format fit, sound, etc. I think that most PDs follow the same kind of mental exercise... it's how we pick new songs and has been for decades.

There have always been formats that didn't play new music. There are less stations playing new music now than in the past. That's because corporate has dictated that programmers focus on 25-54, and the safe way to get those listeners is with music that they already know. That's one of the factors in making radio less entertaining that it was in the past.

"Corporate" does not dictate the demo... econoomics do. There is no ad money for teens, and none at all for over 55, so we go after the formats that attract listeners where there is revenue to be had.

I have read more than enough articles, listened to more than enough consultants, and understand very well the methodology used by Arbitron. I understand that most adult formats don't even play current music by core artists who are still producing new music. Oddly, a lot of those albums sell well, even though they're not deemed fit for airplay.

Read some more. Anyone who thinks a focus group is used for music testing needs to start back at square one.

By the way, shareholders WIN (W-I-N) when a company goes private, as the price is generally about 20% or more above current market price... just another thing you apparently do not know.
 
MY Final Word

DavidEduardo said:
SirRoxalot said:
OK, explain to me how what I said is different from what you said. I said, that research tells us what IS, as in "what people think right at this moment." Please try to read and understand the post before you respond.

Rudeness seldom makes a point, although it is the first step (profanity is the second) in trying o distract attention from one's losing an argument.

Research does not show what radio is (which is what you said). It shows how listeners perceive radio at the moment or referenced to the past. Listeners, for the most part, have know knowledge of what radio is or how it works. they know what they like and dislike, and can only frame radio using that ñpoint of reference.

David, I said that research "tells us what IS", as in "how listeners perceive radio at the moment", not "what radio is". I'm not sure how you derived your meaning from what I wrote. Either you did not read carefully in the first place, or you were trying to skew the meaning so you could make a point.

Rather than repeat point for point the fact that you're arguing semantics in many cases, not concepts, let me just say this:

From the perspective of the guy in the trenches - not the front office - you're just another one of the corporate hacks who has taken step after compromising step to create the state that radio finds itself in today. You have reduced music to "product", and packaged it like Wheaties. Your ilk has created radio stations with fixed playlists selected by computer that will put two songs that clash musically and/or thematically back-to-back because the computer says it's that songs turn to be played. Taste has nothing to do with it. The beauty of the well-executed segue has been lost to the automation system.

Yes, there are a bunch of 6-share stations instead of a few 10-share stations and a few 1-share stations. Those 10-share stations funded the 1-share stations, which catered to underserved formats, so what's the difference? Now, cluster owners CREATE 1-share stations that duplicate existing programming in order to carve a share off of a 7-share station that's beating their 6-share station.

I'm sure that we will disagree, David, because from my perspective as a guy in the trenches, and as a listener, YOU are part of the PROBLEM, not the SOLUTION.

BTW, it will be interesting to watch what happens when Internet radio becomes widely available on inexpensive portable devices connected to high-speed wireless streams. When there is no longer a monopoly on bandwidth, we'll see how your content stands up to competition.
 
Re: MY Final Word

SirRoxalot said:
David, I said that research "tells us what IS", as in "how listeners perceive radio at the moment", not "what radio is". I'm not sure how you derived your meaning from what I wrote. Either you did not read carefully in the first place, or you were trying to skew the meaning so you could make a point.

I derived my meaning from the fact that you think that there is a station focus to research, while the truth is that there is a listener focus. Since you obviously do not know the difference between a focus group and an AMT, qualitative and quantitative, or understand incentives, recruit specifications or turn outs, I have no reason to think that you get what research show, either.


From the perspective of the guy in the trenches - not the front office - you're just another one of the corporate hacks who has taken step after compromising step to create the state that radio finds itself in today. You have reduced music to "product", and packaged it like Wheaties. Your ilk has created radio stations with fixed playlists selected by computer that will put two songs that clash musically and/or thematically back-to-back because the computer says it's that songs turn to be played. Taste has nothing to do with it. The beauty of the well-executed segue has been lost to the automation system.

Of course, none of htis is true.

I have actually assisted in the design of the music software we use, so that we can get greater flexibility and more patterns and such in scheduling. Much of this came from the development of our 11-station "Recuerdo" adult hits group, where we have a library of over 1000 songs in real rotation. We also have no fixed postions in our clocks and our PD spends several hours a day editing each log... this is why the format was #4 25-54 in LA in November, despite being on a class A FM.

Decide, please, what to blame... the digital storage system or the music scheduler or the PD or management.

Digital storage is not used to automate in many stations. It is used to run the spots and make life easier for the jock. Music schedulers are generally not set up to force play a song that does not fit the station rules... if it is, there is a very bad PD. PDs either spend time editing logs or not; ours know the computer has no ears, so the best the computer can do has to be supplemented by manual balancing of each hour. And management has nothing to do with any of this, except signing the checks.

Yes, there are a bunch of 6-share stations instead of a few 10-share stations and a few 1-share stations. Those 10-share stations funded the 1-share stations, which catered to underserved formats, so what's the difference?

In pre-consolidation, you could only have a single FM in a market, plus an AM... since AM has declined hugely since the 70's before deregulation and Docket 80-90, having one is kind of irrelevant. Every FM tried to be as big as it could. Not all succeeded.

Only consolidation can give the economies of scale to allow an owner to have some big numbers stations as well as lower overall ones with nice, thight demo propositions. As I mentioned here previously, I was able to fund Ecuador's first FM with the profits from several top rated AMs. And then, I was able to add a second FM, with niche programming... I could not have made it work were it a stand alone, but by sharing towers, sktudio space, sales staff, etc., I gave the market several formats it would not have had. And finally, I took a several year loss to do a news and talk and sports station, built ground up, only becaue I had income from the rest of the cluster to cover the losses of a big news and sports department.

Now, cluster owners CREATE 1-share stations that duplicate existing programming in order to carve a share off of a 7-share station that's beating their 6-share station.

Nobody creates 1 share stations on purpose. Sometimes that is what they get, and we try to fix them or change them. But nobody has this as a goal. 2Oh, lemme' take this $300 million dollar investment, and see if we can loose money with it (if you believe this, then you think that Radio One destroyed KKBT on purpose to get a 1 share.)

BTW, it will be interesting to watch what happens when Internet radio becomes widely available on inexpensive portable devices connected to high-speed wireless streams. When there is no longer a monopoly on bandwidth, we'll see how your content stands up to competition.

Guess who will be the content provider? If you don't think that this is not already covered, they you know as much about the business of radio as you have demonstrated to know about research.
 
Unknowing

David, my understanding of music research is at least as good as your understanding of the stock market.

By the way, shareholders WIN (W-I-N) when a company goes private, as the price is generally about 20% or more above current market price... just another thing you apparently do not know.

Take a look at CC's performance over the long haul.

If you purchased their stock during most of the period from 1998 to 2004, you're losing money with the deal to go private. In some cases, people are losing a LOT of money.

Last I new, most people bought stock hoping that the price would go UP, not down. The deal to take CC private means that a lot of stockholders have no chance of recouping their investment. In this case, $2 above the current trading price - which is near CC's bottom - is hardly 20% above the current market price.

Most of the people on this board are aware of your biases, and consider your posts with that it mind. You are a dispenser of the Kool-Aid. You can never admit when you're wrong - which has been demonstrated on numerous occaisions.

I'm sure that you'll have a reply to this, and I'm sure that you'll try to refute the obvious. I'm also sure that most of the people who post on this board will be able to determine who's right and who's wrong.

Have a nice evening.
 
History can be quite funny. About six or seven years ago, on another radio news group, I commented that I thought a lot of the expansion of radio groups was based on voodoo economics. I couldn't see how the people doing all the expanding could service their debt load; much less make a profit for their share holders. Both David and my friend, Rich Wood (I’ve actually come to like Rich) assured me that there was no debt load. All these acquisitions were done with “shareholder equity.” My reply at the time was something to the effect of "Oh, so they just plan to let the shareholders take the hit…" Needless to say, that evoked some very spirited debate. I still think I was right, and recent events seem to confirm that.

Nothing is new. :eek:
 
SirRoxalot,

Thanks for saying what we've all been trying to say.

And I will continue to beg that he go and run his ethnic programming
 
Re: Unknowing

SirRoxalot said:
Last I new, most people bought stock hoping that the price would go UP, not down. The deal to take CC private means that a lot of stockholders have no chance of recouping their investment. In this case, $2 above the current trading price - which is near CC's bottom - is hardly 20% above the current market price.

This stock market comparison is about the worse way you can evaluate consolidation.

First, the market is moved mostly by the total economy. Second, many issues are moved by the sector they are in, not by the indivisual results of their own operations. At present, the broad communications sector is and has been affected for several years by the "Viacom factor" which has cast a pall on broadcast issues and event he general area of traditional distribution of entertainment. The split of Viacom into CBS and Viacom was an effort to rework this tarnished image, which has affected all broadcast issues.

Anyone who invested in a NASDAQ index fund in the late 90's now sees that, after 7 years, their money is still down 50%. And the NASDAQ composit is based on the entire exchange. Not just radio or TV or syndication are having troubles. Microsoft is off by half its historic high of over $58 a share, and nobody thinks shareholders are being defrauded or cheated. The stock market is a place of immense risk, often driven by many factors that have little or nothing to do with the companies whose shares are traded.

And Clear Channel is not radio. It is one radio company. It is a very successful one, with enormous cash flow and a working business model. It's shares are not as attractive on Wall Street right now as they are among private equity investors. So, given the pre-offer price, the shareholders are getting a 20% premium on their shares and the investors are getting a very good good cash cow in a slower growth industry.

Most of the people on this board are aware of your biases, and consider your posts with that it mind. You are a dispenser of the Kool-Aid. You can never admit when you're wrong - which has been demonstrated on numerous occaisions.

The fact is that many of the things blamed on consolidation are actually nither Clear Channel nor consolidation at work... they are the effect of the Regan era deregulation. That era brought us the end of the Fairness Doctrine, the first relaxation in ownership, total erradication of the useless FCC content controls where stations were required to program percentages of news and public affairs and "other" to insure renewal. The decade ended with Docket 80-90 and a slew of new FMs, upgrades and move-ins. Consolidation was 7 to 8 years away.

I'm sure that you'll have a reply to this, and I'm sure that you'll try to refute the obvious. I'm also sure that most of the people who post on this board will be able to determine who's right and who's wrong.

You are right; i so have a response to this misunderstanding of what drives radio. Blaming consolidation for what was actually done 10 years earlier is silly. Blaming clear for the gyrations of the stock market is absurd. Go write a letter to Bill Gates telling him how investors in Microsoft were defrauded because the 1999 pice was twice that of today!
 
Chuck said:
History can be quite funny. About six or seven years ago, on another radio news group, I commented that I thought a lot of the expansion of radio groups was based on voodoo economics. I couldn't see how the people doing all the expanding could service their debt load; much less make a profit for their share holders. Both David and my friend, Rich Wood (I’ve actually come to like Rich) assured me that there was no debt load. All these acquisitions were done with “shareholder equity.” My reply at the time was something to the effect of "Oh, so they just plan to let the shareholders take the hit…" Needless to say, that evoked some very spirited debate. I still think I was right, and recent events seem to confirm that.

Nothing is new. :eek:

There is a falacy in your argument. Companies that paid for acquisitions with equity (that is, they exchanged their shares for the other companiy's shares) did not, generally, float new equity issues. And the mergers were done by giving shares in the surviving company to the holders of shares in the absorbed company.

There is no reason to think that AMFM shares, if the merger had not taken place, would have fared any better than CCU shares. In other words, the market and the industry have reduced the price of the shares, not the way the transactions were done. So indivisual shareholders in the SECTOR would have had similar results, whether investing in CCU, AMFM or any of the other private entities.

The fact is that all broadcast issues were trading much higher in the pre-2001 era, and the whole industry (as well as TV, cable, slyndication, newspapers, etc.) have been beaten down by the market. None of this has anything to do with deregulation, Docket 80-90, consolidation or the Mays family.
 
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