Revised Landscape

[SirRoxalot]

I'm not sure if there's a lot that serious ratings mavens haven't already discovered, but today's Taylor on Radio Info releases some results from a new study on radio listening. There are some very interesting results, like:

What's the daypart with the biggest cume? If you said mornings, you'd be wrong.

Weekends don't matter? Would you believe that they beat mornings in 16 of 19 formats?

Nights (7p-Midnight) don't matter? Some formats actually beat morning reach during those hours.

That's just a sample. Check out Tom Taylor's column at http://www.radio-info.com/newsletters/taylor-on-radio-info. There's also a link to the executive summary of the study there, and it has some very interesting data.

 

[chas108]

IIRC we got into this awhile back on a thread dealing with TV morning shows and their impact on radio.

I'd learned a couple years back - after PPM came to my market - that AM drive wasn't "all that and a bag of chips" for a lot of metered stations. I dunno if that was simply a function of PPM vs. diary methodology, or if was reflective of a general trend across the board.

I'm thinking it's a little of both.

And whatever the case, whatever has been said about live/local vs. piped-in content or who's cutting where and why...I don't see it as good business sense for a broadcaster to sink the bulk of their talent budget into a "high-profile" AM show when another daypart or dayparts are the bigger ratings draws.

I'm not saying you find the highest rated daypart on each station and throw on an AM-Drive type show...not at all.

What I am saying is that for a station who's never been dominant in AM Drive, might it be worth the risk to, in effect, even out the talent pool? Go back to a single or two person AM show and start playing music again, then open up some entertainment elements, some benchmarks in the other, stronger dayparts?

Obviously there are no pat answers but my gut says if PD's look at their strongest dayparts and start playing to those strengths instead of sinking the lion's share of the "talent eggs" into AM Drive there might be a payoff.

That said...

As a cautionary tale...NBC tried this a couple years back, throwing in the towel on its 10PM PT lineup and tossing in Jay Leno.

There were good reasons for the move: the network's 10PM lineup was stinking up the ratings, plus they had research showing people in general don't stay up as late as they used to. So why not save a few bucks and give Jay a try?

As we all know, the ratings didn't improve any, plus they had the new problem of affiliates unable to sell local spot time at 11PM because the 10:00 lead-in was so weak...or at least perceived as weak. The affiliates revolted and the Peacock went back to conventional programming at 10.

Of course, had the experiment been a success, NBC would've been hailed as visionaries.

The balancing act is going to be how to not make your AM show sound like you're throwing in the towel to the players in the market who traditionally dominate that daypart.

The other thing's gonna be back in the sales department. Can sales adjust to the new reality and get clients to buy-in??

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

The other thing's gonna be back in the sales department. Can sales adjust to the new reality and get clients to buy-in??

Critical question in the entire equation, Chas.

The study contains some very interesting and mildly unsettling observations regarding PPM. Some of what's stated in the report is known from years of reviewing and analyzing diary-based ratings. For example, weekend listening: Cume/share/TSL listening to Oldies, Classic Hits/Rock and Country stations has always been higher in diary based ratings. PPM affirms this as well. Saturday middays is usually the highest cumed daypart of the week in Oldies, Classic Hits/Rock and Country formats, often exceeding morning drive.

The PPM report indicates Saturday, Sunday and Monday are critically important, maybe more important than most programmers thought. As it immediately applies to Buffalo, this Sunday's Bills game is blacked out on TV and radio-only game, so I'd expect 97 and 103 to have strong shares from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m., as TV blackouts force fans to listen to radio PBP as well as pre-post game shows.

The softness of PPM derived morning drive listening and conversely, the strength of other dayparts particularly PM drive and middays, may be due to a number of factors. It doesn't appear there's a need to transfer the AM drive attitude and/or personnel to PM drive. AM drive is challenged now by TV and social media. It may be that PM drive PPM numbers are more robust because of listening habits and needs at that time of the day, especially in music based formats. Listeners may just want to hear a music intensive show hosted by a jock who's upbeat, having fun on the radio, and connected with the world. It's been my experience that certain AM drive ingredients (traffic and weather, news and topicality) work just as well in PM drive, but with tighter time constraints. Tight, topical, timely. It may be that music format listeners would gravitate to a PM drive approach to AM drive. Play the hits, have fun, keep listeners connected and leave the T&A to the sat and podcasters.

A lot of programmers are and will be re-thinking their AM drive shows, re-formulating the content and style. The re-shaping that KIIS did with Ryan Seacrest in LA serves as an example. Although shorter than they were a few years ago, some of Ryan's breaks are comparatively long compared to the pullback that's been applied to AM drive in other major and large medium markets. But this is only one aspect of reading the tea leaves, the tip of the iceberg.

The PPM report is noteworthy for what it says about the value of other dayparts which have often been given short shrift. This may good news for air talent, especially when radio stations buck trend and staff those dayparts with smart, live, local personalities who that make good decisions, have their heads in the game and understand the evolving rules of the game. Easier said than done, given the budget mandates some corporations have given their managers in the last month or two. Time, as it usually does, will tell.

 

[SirRoxalot]

An interesting example of putting talent where the listeners are is going on at WEDG. Shredd & Ragan were bumped from mornings for Opie & Anthony, and darn near shown the door. They got plugged into PM drive instead, and have done a darn good job in their target audience there.

After O&A bombed, Citadel was at least smart enough to leave S&R alone, and plugged in the Morning Bull and James. Neither is a world beater, but S&R's impact is a hook that the rest of the station hangs on. In this case, the money's in PM drive, and word is that Josh Potter is coming back to work with S&R and handle 7-Midnight.

Of course, all this could change in a heartbeat once Cumuless sinks its fangs into Buffalo. The Potter move could be part of very different plans for S&R, and for 103.3.

 

[TheBigA]

The other thing's gonna be back in the sales department. Can sales adjust to the new reality and get clients to buy-in??

If the client doesn't realize it already, there's nothing a salesman can say to change his/her mind.

In my opinion, there was nothing new in this study. We all know that weekends have higher cume because people aren't commuting. So you insert more Gold and Recurrent there to minimize the repetition of currents.

Obviously this is where local strategies and format competition come into play, so a general study like this doesn't tell you about a lot of market differences.

How many stations does Cumulus own in Buffalo? Two? Or two that matter? So what? From what I'm seeing, they might be the kind of company to take on WBEN with an all-news or all-talk station on FM. They're taking some chances over there. Not operating the way Farid did.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

How many stations does Cumulus own in Buffalo? Two? Or two that matter? So what? From what I'm seeing, they might be the kind of company to take on WBEN with an all-news or all-talk station on FM. They're taking some chances over there. Not operating the way Farid did.

Do some homework, A. Cumulus own five. Three Class B FMs, two AMs. Your assignment, should you choose to accept, is to determine the call letters and familiarize yourself with the market. This would help, especially when entering into debate with the regulars here.

 

[TheBigA]

Do some homework, A. Cumulus own five. Three Class B FMs, two AMs.

Blablabla. I was working from memory. They mainly own 3 FMs.

I've always felt those three don't offer enough audience diversification. Three variations of basically the same format. Can they make enough of an inroad on another major format to help diversify their package?

 

[SirRoxalot]

Geez, with your intimate knowledge of the market, I thought that you'd already have that answer.

Cumuless is "revamping" news/talk in markets where they already have the format, and blowing up FMs to provide a simulcast for the now "tighter, lighter, brighter" AMs. Cumuless Buffalo has no news department, so there's nothing there to build on. With WBEN's domininance, and the real possibility that WNY Public Broadcasting may try to extend its news reach with the acquisition of WBFO, I don't see them going in that direction.

If you really were interested in Buffalo-Rochester, you might have noticed multiple threads speculating on format changes for the FMs now owned by Cumuless Buffalo. Maybe you can dredge one of them up and tack on your "informed" opinion.

 

[TheBigA]

Cumuless Buffalo has no news department, so there's nothing there to build on.

I've never claimed to have "intimate knowledge of the market," and I think I've been very honest about that. I just like the level of conversation here, and the topics often go beyond specific local issues.

I'm not so sure that Cumulus is stuck in the box that it's operating in now. It may have no news department now, but I don't see them holding back on hiring people or spending money if they think it can lead to increased revenues. On the other hand, if they think Buffalo's a dead end, then they'll proceed accordingly. I may be negative about Buffalo but I don't think it's dead, and there are some opportunities if they look strategically at their three FMs. But I'll leave the specifics to you.

 

[Element9]

From what I'm seeing, they might be the kind of company to take on WBEN with an all-news or all-talk station on FM.

That's funny, Ricky. Send it to Leno or Letterman. You could be getting paid for stuff like this.

 

[TheBigA]

That's funny, Ricky. Send it to Leno or Letterman. You could be getting paid for stuff like this.

Cumulus is about to take on CBS and NPR in the all-news format in San Francisco. That's not gonna be cheap or easy.

Ricky? That's kinda like of Dan Rather's line about Kenneth.

 

[Element9]

Cumulus is about to take on CBS and NPR in the all-news format in San Francisco. That's not gonna be cheap or easy.

Nope. And probably not successful given the history of CBS and NPR in SF and the quality of the product and Cumulus' propensity for running cheap. Being that San Francisco is a top ten market and Buffalo isn't in the top 50, it's highly unlikely that one of Cumulus' third of the "two FMs that matter" will be flipping to all news or news talk. Wonder what the "doesn't matter" station is? Word (albeit from a competitor) is that after January, the Cumulus Buffalo cluster won't be subscribing to Arbitron. Imagine selling against Entercom and Town Square without being able to quote ratings. Not impossible, but it doesn't make the sales person's job any easier. That $50 million in synergies thing.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Heh. Maybe Buffalo will become Eastlan's biggest market. Or Cumuless will roll out its own rating system. HA!

 

[TheBigA]

Word (albeit from a competitor) is that after January, the Cumulus Buffalo cluster won't be subscribing to Arbitron.

They've done it from time to time in other markets. They drop out for a book or two, and then come back.A couple years ago, they signed up with Nielsen for their short-lived attempt at radio ratings. It could be a signal of a format change, but not necessarily.

Wonder what the "doesn't matter" station is?

You said they own a second AM in Buffalo? Is it a Part 15?

 

[SirRoxalot]

They own WBBF, and WHLD, both AMs. WBBF is a daytimer running brokered Spanish.

Rumor has it that there are no summer book numbers available at James E. Casey Drive.

 

[TheBigA]

They own WBBF, and WHLD, both AMs. WBBF is a daytimer running brokered Spanish.

LMA'd to another company. Not listed among the Citadel Buffalo Cluster stations at the company website, nor was it included in the reporting of the merger with Cumulus.

 

[SirRoxalot]

LMA or otherwise, they still OWN it, and are responsible for the license.

 

[TheBigA]

LMA or otherwise, they still OWN it, and are responsible for the license.

But my comment was about "stations that matter." This one doesn't.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

How many stations does Cumulus own in Buffalo? Two? Or two that matter? So what? From what I'm seeing, they might be the kind of company to take on WBEN with an all-news or all-talk station on FM. They're taking some chances over there. Not operating the way Farid did.

Your words referenced FM. Cumulus, formerly Citadel, owns and operates three FMs in Buffalo and two AMs, as noted by Mr. R. It's likely the air and sales staffs strongly believe each station "matters." Speaking only for myself, I have no idea what changes, if any, Cumulus has in mind, but I'd be willing to wager a buck t'ree eighty1 that Cumulus won't be going all news on any of its Buffalo FMs.
_________________________________________________
1Buffalo colloquialism.

 

[TheBigA]

If you re-read my post, my point was that whether they own 2 or 3 FMs, it's really not enough to completely change the dynamics of the market. If they had 5 FMs or a stronger AM, then maybe. The reality is that Buffalo is a two-AM town. So their two AMs aren't in play. My question is do they have a national strategy for news and talk that requires a Buffalo clear? For a while, CC had a national strategy for country, and they launched new country stations in markets like Atlanta, St. Louis, and San Diego quite often just to disrupt the status quo. That time is over, but it shook things up. These new people at Cumulus come from that kind of radio background that sometimes you gotta shake things up. Shaking things up puts the competition on defense, which is good. The problem with Buffalo is that they really don't have an easy sacrificial lamb.