Rhythm / Urban Fall '06 12+ Radio Re-Cap

[LeeLHeureux]

I've always been a fan of the numbers of radio since I was doing radio. I spent a little bit of time looking at how the 12+ ratings for rhythm and urban stations compared to their last book. These are generalizations with no specific numbers so should not violate copywright.

I've had some great insightful conversations with programmers about the latest moves and am curious to hear what people here think. I'll share my thoughts as well.

Notes:
- These are based on 12+ numbers only since I don't have access to everyone's ratings.
- This is for the Fall book 2006 and based on book to book and not fall to fall.
- Keep in mind in some markets with two or more stations when one station drops another rises and vice versa - however that did not happen all that frequently as you will see below.
- I looked at RHY & URB stations for the top 200 markets for stations licensed for the market. For instance Hot 97 is for New York and not New Haven, CT.
- I used the labels that R&R has for rhythm & urban stations.

Total Stations: 176
Total Markets: 122
Total Rhythm: 99
Total Urban: 77

Overall Performance:

Rhythm Stations that Increased: 38/99 or 38%
Rhythm Stations that Decreased: 55/99 or 56%
Rhythm Stations that Remained the Same: 6/99 or 6%

Urban Stations that Increased: 30/77 or 39%
Urban Stations that Decreased: 42/77 or 55%
Urban Stations that Remained the Same: 5/77 or 6%

Total Stations Increased: 68/176 or 39%
Total Stations Down: 97/176 or 55%
Total Stations Same: 11/176 or 6%

Further Break down:

Average Rhy Increase: 0.71
Average Rhy Decrease: 1.06
Average Urb Increase: 0.76
Average Urb Decrease: 0.91
Average Total Increase: 0.73
Average Total Decrease: 1.00 (.9998)

Removing Biggest Increasing & Decreasing Stations:

Average Rhy Increase: 0.62
Average Rhy Decrease: 1.03
Average Urb Increase: 0.61
Average Urb Decrease: 0.85
Average Total Increase: 0.62
Average Total Decrease: 0.95

Multiple Station Markets:

In 39% of the markets with more than 1 station either both or stations increased OR the amount of one of the stations increased equaled or surpassed the amount of the other's decrease.

In 61% of the markets with more than 1 station either both or all stations decreased OR the amount of one of the stations increase did not equal the amount of the other's decrease.

 

[Saladressing]

Nice analysis.

 

[htowler]

I expected that both formats would move in tandum but not quite that close.

How did you Count HOT97? R&R Tags Hot97 as Urban on their Playlist but Rhythmic on the Ratings and News

 

[LeeLHeureux]

Thanks...

I tagged Hot 97 as a rhythm station since I used the definitions they have on the ratings page although you could argue it's an urban station. There are so many in the grey zone that it probably balances out.

I thought there were some really interesting things to note and the bottom stat being the most interesting. If you take a scan through many of the markets where the RHY or URB stations dropped stations like AC/Country/Talk increased. Without seeing everyone's individual ratings I worry about that. We're not seeing large CHR 40 jumps or even large jumps from a competing RHY or URB which is not good for the format. I'd be willing to bet that if a listener is leaving RHY or URB he/she is not going to AC/Country/Talk.

To me, those are "older" formats where technological innovations are less likely to impact the cume where the "younger" formats have many competitors. When ratings fall like this I worry that people are leaving the format for other options.

Thoughts?

 

[htowler]

So you are thinking XM and Sirius?

 

[LeeLHeureux]

Maybe.. But their subscriber bases are not increasing as fast as they would like them to (more talks of consolidating today which moved both stocks). I'm not sure of the answer to be honest. I'm sure they play a part but what we need to see is if this is a trend or aberration. Is the ipod, internet world playing a larger role?

I'm curious to see what some stations are doing to promote the Internet portion of their station (or if anything at all - or if they believe it to be important). I know some clusters are really shifting some of the focus to promote the web side.

 

[Jay F]

Do you think this is in part due to the backlash against hip-hop? Rap sales were down 21% from 2005-2006. This was the largest decline of any music genre.

In the early 90s I had a friend tell me there was a big backlash against rap. I found that to be very offensive at the time because I knew it was just wishful thinking on his part. It was the freshest music at the time and I knew it was on the verge of an explosive growth cycle. There was no backlash.

Now when I read articles about a backlash and sales declines I believe it is legit. Has hip hop gotten stale and is this impacting CHR/R and Urban radio ratings? A lot of today's hip hop, even several of the radio hits, have a male dominance "I'm a successful thug" theme. Have female radio listeners (and some males for that matter) gotten tired of this? I get a sense that society as a whole, not just the Christian right, is concerned about moral decay. Whether it's fair or not there is a growing feeling that hip hop is not just a reflection of, but a cause of crime, family breakdown and other social problems.

I listen to every genre of music. I have listened to hip hop since I first heard "rappers delight" on the radio in early 1980. For decades, stations playing rap would get ratings, it was young demographics of course, but it was easy getting ratings by playing rap. It was cool and seemed underground for the longest time.

I first sensed the genre could be in trouble a few years ago when I heard terms like "hip hop generation" and "hip hop lifestyle". When anything in pop culture get's that big and that mainstream it will by nature start to decline. Trends often peak out when you least expect them to. I think of my friend who talked about a rap backlash 15-17 years ago. He probably gave up on that idea recently, he probably came to terms with the idea that it would be around and be popular for the rest of his life. The second he gave up on the idea of a backlash is when the backlash began.