Rochester Numbers Winter '12

[Bob1370]

Rochester numbers for this winter are now out, at least the 12+ AQH numbers...A few observations;

At the top, WBEE finishes with the same double digit share it had 12 months ago, showing remarkable consistency. WDKX solidifies its hold on second place 12+ by owning the 12-34 demos in both city and suburbs--you have to wonder if they'd top the market overall, if they only had a full-market coverage Class B signal, so don't be surprised if the Langston family makes moves to find a way either to boost their current signal (which they may be able to do at least in some directions with their current frequency and TL) or get a class B signal if one comes on the market in the future.

WHAM has fallen from second to third place 12+ and lost two full share points in the last 12 months. WRMM (Warm 101.3) is now just a few tenths behind them and gaining. Could this be a sign that some of the changes WHAM has made in response to corporate-mandated cutbacks have not served them well?

WPXY-FM rounds out the top five. Buzz 98.9 and WCMF are the only other stations posting better than a 4 share among the commercials. I suspect Legends 102.7 would be in there as well with numbers in the high 3s ior 4s, but it's showing up as a dash in the published list, probably because they're not buying the Arbitron survey this time around and Arbitron won't publish the numbers of any station that doesn't subrscribe. Several other previously listed stations aren't showing up with numbers this time either, which puts a bit of a question mark on the validity of the whole survey. I gather the ad agencies gat to see the full numbers, but if some ad buys from national accounts that don't work through regional agencies are dependent on these reports, this can throw off some buying decisions.

From the numbers we CAN see, the big questions first surround what WHAM can or will do to stop the bleeding. Then, down near the bottom of the published numbers, you have to wonder if WROC-AM and WHTK AM/FM are going to keep trying to chase a combined share for all sports stations in the market that can't break a 2. A market without major league pro teams or Division 1-A college teams in the big two men's sports (men's basketball and men's football) can't support two sports radio outlets--I wonder if it can even profitably sustain one. Something's got to give.

 

[TheBigA]

Could this be a sign that some of the changes WHAM has made in response to corporate-mandated cutbacks have not served them well?

Or that Rochester is not immune from the fate of AM news/talkers nationally.

 

[Jeff Michaels]

How WRMM is getting any listeners at all is astonishing. They claim to play Soft Rock but play anything but.... Disco, Hard Rock, Heavy Classic Rock, current heavier tunes...

 

[SirRoxalot]

Yeah, too bad about those AM news/talkers nationally. KFI-AM in LA, WBBM-AM in Chicago, KCBS-AM in SF, WSB-AM in Atlanta, and a host of others are just falling apart, right?

Maybe it has more to do with programming than it does with band. Clear Channel has FMs that they could take talk in Rochester if they chose.

 

[TheBigA]

Yeah, too bad about those AM news/talkers nationally. KFI-AM in LA, WBBM-AM in Chicago, KCBS-AM in SF, WSB-AM in Atlanta, and a host of others are just falling apart, right?

WBBM and KCBS are all news, no talk. The news/talk station in Chicago, WGN, dropped from first to third.

New York City for the first time in a while has no AM stations in the Top 10. Same with Dallas, Houston, DC, Miami, and many more.

KYW, traditionally #1 in Philly, has seen a 2 point drop in the last two books. There's talk of the format moving to FM.

WSB is the only AM that gets better than a 2 share in Atlanta, and it's not a traditional conservative news talker. That distinction goes to WGST.

 

[SirRoxalot]

So, you're saying that WHAM should go all news - or at least boost its news commitment to, say, where it was a few of years ago - if they want to get the numbers that they got few years ago.

 

[TheBigA]

So, you're saying that WHAM should go all news - or at least boost its news commitment to, say, where it was a few of years ago - if they want to get the numbers that they got few years ago.

No.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Thanks for clarifying that.

 

[SirRoxalot]

WBBM and KCBS are all news, no talk.The news/talk station in Chicago, WGN, dropped from first to third.

So, WGN rides the Randy Michaels merry-go-round and WBBM benefits. There's a shock. KCBS benefits from the Cumulus upheaval at KGO. I still don't see where AM is the problem here. Sounds more like good programming benefitted from bad moves by the competition, and that AM is still viable. The drops have nothing to do with what band they're on.

KYW, traditionally #1 in Philly, has seen a 2 point drop in the last two books. There's talk of the format moving to FM.

Let's clarify that. It's more like a 1.5 shares, over 3 winter months. That's not a drop, that's barely a wobble in the real world. I'm sure that CBS would love to have another FM in Philly, and everybody on AM talks about moving the format to FM so they can "get younger listeners." Well, the format is what gets younger listeners more than the band. WGR and WBEN in Buffalo prove that every book.

WSB is the only AM that gets better than a 2 share in Atlanta, and it's not a traditional conservative news talker. That distinction goes to WGST.

So, an AM looks very healthy in Atlanta. Maybe Cox simply puts out a better product than Clear Channel. Obviously, AM is viable if the programming is good enough. We can certainly see what Clear Channel has done to the programming at WHAM, and others. It certainly hasn't gotten better.

 

[TheBigA]

You obviously weren't happy with my one word answer, so you want to stir the ashes a little more.

Obviously, AM is viable if the programming is good enough.

You responded to every sentence in my post but this one:

New York City for the first time in a while has no AM stations in the Top 10. Same with Dallas, Houston, DC, Miami, and many more.

CBS is putting out award-winning content on WCBS and WINS. WCBS and WFAN are the homes to New York's very popular sports teams, and NONE of them are in the Top 10. That led ESPN to make a deal with Emmis to put a sports station on FM, and chase after the contracts of the Yankees and Mets. Clearly, these people see AM as the problem.

 

[SirRoxalot]

So, talk isn't doing as well in NYC as it is in most other markets. That's nothing new, and hardly indicative of a new trend. It's not like a new FM talker came in an took over. Maybe people in NYC are just oversaturated with news.

Ditto Dallas. WBAP is actually up in the last book. No FM talker in sight. Same with KTRH in Houston. AM Talker up, but not in the top 10.

Everybody looks at DC with two talk stations at the top - and both FMs. Well, is it the fact that they're FMs, or the fact that American University and Hubbard are just investing in better product? Yeah, everybody wants an FM talker so they can emulate them. How many CC or Cumulus stations are willing to make the investment in staff that WAMU or WTOP make?

There are still a ton of markets with an AM news/talker in the top 3. WHAM is still #3, but support is eroding because the product is eroding. CC could put them on FM, but that won't make a bit of difference if the programming doesn't appeal to a younger audience. WBEN in Buffalo proves that - as does WGR, which DOES get 25-54 men with sports programming.

It ain't the band as much as it's the programming, and gutting the programming is costing listeners. It will cost WHAM more revenue than they've saved in salaries - just as Citadel did before their collapse, and as Cumulus is doing in several markets.

 

[TheBigA]

So, talk isn't doing as well in NYC as it is in most other markets.

That's not what I said. But you know that.

Just two years ago, there were four AM talk stations in the Top 10. Now there are none. The investment in the content hasn't changed. These stations are still all live and local. But they're not getting the ratings they once were. Just like WHAM.

How many CC or Cumulus stations are willing to make the investment in staff that WAMU or WTOP make?

I don't know, but I can tell you that CBS has just invested a ton of money in a live & local news staff in DC with terrble results. In Houston, Radio One has invested a ton in live & local news with terrible results. And we already know about Merlin. So there is no automatic pot of gold by investing in programming.

 

[Bob1370]

"CBS has just invested a ton of money in a live & local news staff in DC with terrble results."

The problem with that station isn't a lack of demand for live local news in DC, or even any inherent flaw with what it offers--it's that another station in Washington, WTOP, has been doing the same thing so well under three different owners (Post-Newsweek, Bonneville and now Hubbard) for the last 40+ years, first on AM and then on FM, that it dominates the entire market. The next-strongest spoken-word format station is noncomm news/talker WAMU, another heritage station which also has full market coverage and a strong mix of NPR and local programming (although since NPR originates in DC, you might say nearly everything they air is locally produced).

Me-too stations always struggle against really good competition, especially if that competition is firmly entrenched with a long positive history in the market. If a heritage station slips, it should start to try to improve its position by looking within and seeing what it could be doing better.

 

[TheBigA]

Me-too stations always struggle against really good competition,

That's not the case in Houston. There has been a huge hole for news in the #7 market since KTRH has focused on conservative talk. They let go a lot of news people, and Radio One hired them for a 24/7 local news station. After 3 months, they have a .8 share. Not a huge endorsement for news in a major market.

The big story today is Cumulus has hired 8 former CNN radio staffers for a local all-news station in Atlanta. Yes, WSB does some local news, but not 24/7. And the emphasis is on their talk talent, not on-demand news. It will be interesting to see if they make good on their investment.

 

[SirRoxalot]

So, in Houston a Class C-1 FM isn't doing well against an entrenched 50KW AM. I guess it's the programming, not the band, huh?

 

[TheBigA]

So, in Houston a Class C-1 FM isn't doing well against an entrenched 50KW AM. I guess it's the programming, not the band, huh?

So investing in great local programming doesn't really matter? Then WHAM is doing the right thing. Thanks.

 

[SirRoxalot]

How long have you been in radio? Three months is a fair test? With what kind of promotional support? And how does the product sound? Hiring former staffers from one station doesn't mean that the programming is right. WHICH former staffers?

Puh-lease. At least try to make sense. WHAM has lost audience because they've gutted the programming. It's got nothing to do with not having an FM. At least try to stay on the same side of your specious arguement.

 

[TheBigA]

How long have you been in radio? Three months is a fair test? With what kind of promotional support? And how does the product sound? Hiring former staffers from one station doesn't mean that the programming is right. WHICH former staffers?

What do you always tell me about Buffalo? I say the same with you about Houston. Your point is that investing in great local programming will lead to increased audience. I give you examples where it's not the case. Now you're nit picking because I'm right. "It's the signal." "Only three months." "How much promotion?" Move to Houston, and you'll get your answers. Another approach would be to surmise that people in Houston don't care about local news. But the fact is that a radio company invested a lot of money in local programming, and it's not paying off. You can come up with all the excuses you want, but it doesn't change the main fact.

It's not like you can't go from worst to first in three months. CBS just did it with a country station in Minneapolis. How much did they invest in local talent? Not one dime. It's all unhosted hits. But it worked. And that's all that matters.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

It's not like you can't go from worst to first in three months. CBS just did it with a country station in Minneapolis. How much did they invest in local talent? Not one dime. It's all unhosted hits. But it worked. And that's all that matters.

You're equating a music intensive format with news-talk or all news? Certainly a person of your breadth of experience and acumen knows this is like comparing apples to oranges.

 

[SirRoxalot]

How about if you talked about markets where you actually KNEW the answers, instead of posting on dozens of different boards and pretending to have some local knowledge? You keep trying to make sweeping generalizations, and end up contradicting yourself because radio is a LOCAL product, and markets differ. What's true in one market isn't true in another for a variety of reasons, which is why corporate cookie-cutter radio isn't bringing along a new generation of listeners.

Young people these days are hip to slick. They don't want slick, they want real, and out-of-town syndication and VT generally don't fill that bill. And, yes, there are exceptions because some markets either are different, or there's no other choice, and my syndication is better than your syndication.

Can you take a station from worst-to-first in 3 months? Maybe, depending on the market and the competition. Can you keep it there for a couple of years? Maybe, depending on the market and the competition. Jack made a splash, then sank like a rock. Remember, a splash means that you've got to fool some of the people some of the time.

I have no idea what happened in Minnesota. Unlike you, I admit that I have no idea what happened in Minnesota. And neither do you.