Roy Laughlins comments in Don Barretts column- KDAY?KDAI superstation

[ronkaram]

I can't wait to see what David has to say about Roys latest spin. I'm not in radio so I don't know if what he says makes any sense but I know David is pretty knowledgeable.
Roy says that with the Riverside market growing into the #2 market in Southern Calif over the next several years, his station is will be able to get big billings since they have a good signal that can cover both markets. He mentioned the new way of measuring audiences starting Jan 1st will help.

 

[Shoot From Hip]

Don Barrett is giving away a free grain of salt for each reader to take while reading today's column. There is, however, something to be said for trying to will one's own destiny by sheer inertia.

 

[Hunter]

Roy truly is the master of radio spin. Granted, Riverside is undervalued by the ad buying community who see it as a spill market when buying L.A., but any hopes of cashing in because Riverside will be the number 2 market in Calif are a long way off. The L.A. Times reported that it will take 50 years for that to happen. That said, there is growth potential there.

On another note, usually when LPM's kick in, ratings at most all stations drop significantly, especially urban formatted stations. The Jan start of LPM's may add a new challenge for Roy who will undoubtedly come up with compelling reasons and/or spin should KDAY's ratings plummet. If I were Dave, I couldn't think of a better man to have at the helm.

 

[doublecashkgb]

Roy could be sitting astride Satan himself and brag about the heat.

 

[nvrbbh]

Roy truly is the master of radio spin. Granted, Riverside is undervalued by the ad buying community who see it as a spill market when buying L.A., but any hopes of cashing in because Riverside will be the number 2 market in Calif are a long way off. The L.A. Times reported that it will take 50 years for that to happen. That said, there is growth potential there.

On another note, usually when LPM's kick in, ratings at most all stations drop significantly, especially urban formatted stations. The Jan start of LPM's may add a new challenge for Roy who will undoubtedly come up with compelling reasons and/or spin should KDAY's ratings plummet. If I were Dave, I couldn't think of a better man to have at the helm.

KDAY is no longer an Urban station. Read All Access today. It's now Top 40/Rhythmic adding some core KIIS artists. All positioning statements have been dropped except "The Legendary KDAY". Sounds likes it is in transition on-air. I wonder if the reason why the KWIE calls are being retained is (speculating) they may become "Wild" rather than KDAY.

To clarify the Los Angeles Times article, it did not say it would take 50 years for Riverside/San Bernardino to become the number 2 market in California. The population listed is for 2050, less than 43 years from now but becoming the number 2 market in California will occur much sooner than that under current projections. Riverside is projected to increase from 1.6 million (2000) to 4.7 million (2050 - a 203% increase ) and San Bernardino 1.7 million (2000) to 3.7 million (2050 - a 113% increase). That's 8.4 million total. In contrast, Los Angeles is projected to increase from 9.6 million (2000) to 13.1 million (2050), Orange from 2.9 million (2000) to 4.0 million (2050), Ventura from 760,000 (2000) to 1.2 million (2050) and San Diego from 2.8 million (2000) to 4.5 million (2050).

Anyone who thinks radio will still be broadcast as over the air - on AM or FM - in 20 years or maybe sooner is delusional. With WiMax coming in some cities as soon this fall, streamed radio everywhere will replace both in short order.

 

[Hunter]

The point regarding Roy's comment about Riverside's growth is that the population growth won't happen anytime soon enough realize equity growth for a terrestrial signal, especially given the future of Wimax, etc.

If they are transitioning away from urban, they have a ways to go and adding a few core KIIS artists won't cut it. The station's audience will need to become more mainstream to overcome the LPM challenges. Perhaps they are doing a slow move, or they are indeed planning a switch to "Wild" when Liberman takes over 96.1. Their website still boldly quotes "Hip Hop Today and Back In The Day". In either scenario it will be interesting to see what happens in L.A. as David takes on Goliath.

 

[nvrbbh]

The point regarding Roy's comment about Riverside's growth is that the population growth won't happen anytime soon enough realize equity growth for a terrestrial signal, especially given the future of Wimax, etc.

If they are transitioning away from urban, they have a ways to go and adding a few core KIIS artists won't cut it. The station's audience will need to become more mainstream to overcome the LPM challenges. Perhaps they are doing a slow move, or they are indeed planning a switch to "Wild" when Liberman takes over 96.1. Their website still boldly quotes "Hip Hop Today and Back In The Day". In either scenario it will be interesting to see what happens in L.A. as David takes on Goliath.

What's on their website today means nothing based on how far behind I know the tech people are on Clear Channel websites. For example, you'll still see "Hot 92 Jamz" on the Hot 92.3 website. It's been in the planning stages since last year to return to being "Hot 92.3".

Growth is CURRENTLY by leaps and bounds in KDAI's coverage area in Riverside and San Bernardino counties and it is fast becoming the second largest market in California. Some of the fastest growing cities in California are in those counties. You should read more on population growth in Southern California. It's happening today not just 40 years from now. Roy is correct.

The Goodfellas on KDAY just had one single generic voicetrack that kept getting repeated over and over this afternoon.

 

[davideduardo]

Growth is CURRENTLY by leaps and bounds in KDAI's coverage area in Riverside and San Bernardino counties and it is fast becoming the second largest market in California.

The counties are not the market. The market (MSA) is a portion of those counties, and is ranked 25th nationally... but 49th in radio revenue. The market will grow about 10% in the next 5 to 6 years. It will not surpass San Diego or San Francisco for some time.

Some of the fastest growing cities in California are in those counties.

The Coachella Valley and the High Desert are separate markets.

You should read more on population growth in Southern California. It's happening today not just 40 years from now. Roy is correct.

But the market underbills horribly, as it is a shadow market for LA.

 

[nvrbbh]

Growth is CURRENTLY by leaps and bounds in KDAI's coverage area in Riverside and San Bernardino counties and it is fast becoming the second largest market in California.

The counties are not the market. The market (MSA) is a portion of those counties, and is ranked 25th nationally... but 49th in radio revenue. The market will grow about 10% in the next 5 to 6 years. It will not surpass San Diego or San Francisco for some time.

Some of the fastest growing cities in California are in those counties.

The Coachella Valley and the High Desert are separate markets.

You should read more on population growth in Southern California. It's happening today not just 40 years from now. Roy is correct.

But the market underbills horribly, as it is a shadow market for LA.

The majority of growth is not in the High Desert (Victorville, Antelope Valley) or Coachella Valley (Palm Springs and vicinity) BY SHEER NUMBERS. That's a very silly post statement by you David. VERY SILLY. I can post actual growth IN numbers if you wish. Lets talk Moreno Valley, Riverside, Corona, Murietta, Fontana etc...

This market is ALL GROWTH and growing faster by numbers than any market in California. Something I'd prefer to be in that a shrinking Northeastern market.

I should hope it underbills Los Angeles. It is and will continue to be smaller than Los Angeles. But not San Diego or San Francisco. San Francisco, the city/county itself, is actually shrinking. What is your point?

 

[davideduardo]

The majority of growth is not in the High Desert (Victorville, Antelope Valley) or Coachella Valley (Palm Springs and vicinity) BY SHEER NUMBERS. That's a very silly post statement by you David. VERY SILLY. I can post actual growth IN numbers if you wish. Lets talk Moreno Valley, Riverside, Corona, Murietta, Fontana etc...

But the radio market does not even include some of those... Fontana, for example. Or Ontario, etc.

The Riverside / SB market is 1.8 million 12+. LA is 10.8 million. SF is 5.9 million. San Diego is 2.5 million. Sacramento is only 35 thousand less than the IE market.

This market is ALL GROWTH and growing faster by numbers than any market in California. Something I'd prefer to be in that a shrinking Northeastern market.

Check the radio market definition.

I should hope it underbills Los Angeles. It is and will continue to be smaller than Los Angeles. But not San Diego or San Francisco. San Francisco, the city/county itself, is actually shrinking. What is your point?

San Diego bills 4 times what the IE market bills. SF outdoes it by 8 times. Sacramento bills triple the IE revenues. It is only a couple of million in billing over Fresno. In fact several of the top LA stations alone bill more than the IE market. It's in the shadow of LA, and many advertisers do not buy it because the LA stations take so much of the listening

 

[Hunter]

I should hope it underbills Los Angeles. It is and will continue to be smaller than Los Angeles. But not San Diego or San Francisco. San Francisco, the city/county itself, is actually shrinking. What is your point?
[/quote]

I was born and raised in Riverside and have been in So Calif most of my life...for the past 12 years in L.A. I see the growth there. I can't speak for Dave, but his point that the Riverside/SB revenue rank is 49th and the market rank based on population is 25th indicates a very serious problem for station owners in that market. The population there could balloon to surpass SF & SD next year, but if planners and advertisers have the misconception that they can get adequite spill into the market buy buying mostly LA stations then they will continue to do it. It is the nature of ad buyers to seek effeciencies where ever possible. This is nothing new. It happens all over the country anywhere a nearby or embeded market has significant spill from a major market.

Obviously, with market growth, more ad money overall should come into the market and station values theoretically will rise. I don't know if billings in the market are up or down, but I do know that the radio industry as a whole, has had decreasing revenues for the last couple of years. The big question is will the population grow fast enough to offset new technologies (wimax, etc) that create more competition for listeners and/or ad dollars?

 

[davideduardo]

The population there could balloon to surpass SF & SD next year,

Not likely... SF has nearly 6 million 12+, and SD has 7 hundred thousand more. The IE is market 25, SF is market 4.

but if planners and advertisers have the misconception that they can get adequite spill into the market buy buying mostly LA stations then they will continue to do it.

Since LA stations do not charge for spillage audience, the coverage is free. And the IE commercial stations get only about 32% of the total listening, so there is not much reason to buy them in many cases.

It is the nature of ad buyers to seek effeciencies where ever possible. This is nothing new. It happens all over the country anywhere a nearby or embeded market has significant spill from a major market.

One little correction... and ebedded market is part of the larger market. San Jose is embedded in the SF market, but the IE is mostly adjacent to the LA markets, bordering, also, on the Palm Springs and Victorville and San Diego markets.

Obviously, with market growth, more ad money overall should come into the market and station values theoretically will rise. I don't know if billings in the market are up or down,

It is a low growth market... about 2% a year give or take. LA, on the other hand, has grown 25% since '01.

but I do know that the radio industry as a whole, has had decreasing revenues for the last couple of years.

No, the growth is slow, but except for 2001, for obvious reasons, the industry is up a couple of percent a year.

The big question is will the population grow fast enough to offset new technologies (wimax, etc) that create more competition for listeners and/or ad dollars?

It is just not a growth market. About the only segment that will grow is Hispanic, which is why Libberman went in.

 

[nvrbbh]

The population there could balloon to surpass SF & SD next year,

Not likely... SF has nearly 6 million 12+, and SD has 7 hundred thousand more. The IE is market 25, SF is market 4.

but if planners and advertisers have the misconception that they can get adequite spill into the market buy buying mostly LA stations then they will continue to do it.

Since LA stations do not charge for spillage audience, the coverage is free. And the IE commercial stations get only about 32% of the total listening, so there is not much reason to buy them in many cases.

It is the nature of ad buyers to seek effeciencies where ever possible. This is nothing new. It happens all over the country anywhere a nearby or embeded market has significant spill from a major market.

One little correction... and ebedded market is part of the larger market. San Jose is embedded in the SF market, but the IE is mostly adjacent to the LA markets, bordering, also, on the Palm Springs and Victorville and San Diego markets.

Obviously, with market growth, more ad money overall should come into the market and station values theoretically will rise. I don't know if billings in the market are up or down,

It is a low growth market... about 2% a year give or take. LA, on the other hand, has grown 25% since '01.

but I do know that the radio industry as a whole, has had decreasing revenues for the last couple of years.

No, the growth is slow, but except for 2001, for obvious reasons, the industry is up a couple of percent a year.

The big question is will the population grow fast enough to offset new technologies (wimax, etc) that create more competition for listeners and/or ad dollars?

It is just not a growth market. About the only segment that will grow is Hispanic, which is why Libberman went in.

Another SILLY David statement. Most of the growth for the entire state of California is Hispanic. Do you need me to post that info. as well?

As for Riverside County alone it grew at a rate of 3.3% last year alone and that is projected to increase YEARLY. Even at the current rate, 1/3 growth rate over 10 years and it is ACCELERATING. Much higher than any other county. Already Riverside County has a population over 2 million. Same for San Bernardino County. In 10 years, this area will have over 5 million people on the low side and could be 5.5 million.

Beaumont had a growth rate of 148.1% from 2000-2006 (tops in the state). Murietta 119.6% (tops in Riverside county). Beaumont haa a growth rate of 21.2% last year (top in the state). By population, Fontana had the largest increase in the state last year. The final extention of the 210 that will now connect the I-215 and 30 to Los Angeles opens on Tuesday. More growth.

Liberman got the station as Roy wanted to eliminate an English language station from the market (as of next Wednesday). Clear Channel wants more stations in that market but has been unsucessful in attempts to make a deal.

Don't forget Roy has to build a station that Ellen K can work at. As soon as her iron clad deal that he set up for her at KIIS is up, she's gone.

 

[davideduardo]

Another SILLY David statement. Most of the growth for the entire state of California is Hispanic. Do you need me to post that info. as well?

Not everyone knows that, you know. It is, for example, the reason country shares are declining eve3r so slowly in the IE. Anyway, we were taling REVENUE growth for radio with Hunter... not population. The anglo stations will have slow or no growth in revenue, but the Hispanic ones will increased dramatically, starting with Liberman.

As for Riverside County alone it grew at a rate of 3.3% last year alone and that is projected to increase YEARLY.

Please stop quoting county population. The IE radio market is 1.8 million, and occupies actually only a percentage of the land in Riverside or SB counties. It does not include the "no man's land" between the LA County border and just beyond Fontana framed by the 10 and the 210 and a bit south (nearly 800 thousand people 12+) and it does not get to the "top of the ten" which becomes the Palm Springs market, where another 400,000 Riverside Cty. residents are in a separate market. So, of the Riverside County total population, more than half is not even in the Riverside / San Bernardino radio market.

Even at the current rate, 1/3 growth rate over 10 years and it is ACCELERATING. Much higher than any other county. Already Riverside County has a population over 2 million.

Actually, it is higher. But only about a million are in the radio market.

Same for San Bernardino County. In 10 years, this area will have over 5 million people on the low side and could be 5.5 million.

And only 800 thousand are in the radio market today.

Beaumont had a growth rate of 148.1% from 2000-2006 (tops in the state).

Yeah, when you go from 4,000 to 11,000 the figures look impressive... but it is a tiny community.

Murietta 119.6% (tops in Riverside county). Beaumont haa a growth rate of 21.2% last year (top in the state). By population, Fontana had the largest increase in the state last year.

Fontana is not in the radio market. Stop!!!!!!

The final extention of the 210 that will now connect the I-215 and 30 to Los Angeles opens on Tuesday. More growth.

Not really, that NE corner of the valley is already mostly built out except for the quarries and washes. What that road will do is make the drive to Palm Springs and beyond easier, along with the widening of the 10 to Yucaipa and Calimesa (where the market ends, by the way)

Liberman got the station as Roy wanted to eliminate an English language station from the market (as of next Wednesday). Clear Channel wants more stations in that market but has been unsucessful in attempts to make a deal.

Don't forget Roy has to build a station that Ellen K can work at. As soon as her iron clad deal that he set up for her at KIIS is up, she's gone.

Save it for the Enquirer.

 

[Hunter]

The population there could balloon to surpass SF & SD next year,

Not likely... SF has nearly 6 million 12+, and SD has 7 hundred thousand more. The IE is market 25, SF is market 4.

Dude, I think you're getting caught up in the minutia as opposed to looking at my point. I was being facitious to underscore my point that buying attitudes won't change.

but if planners and advertisers have the misconception that they can get adequite spill into the market buy buying mostly LA stations then they will continue to do it.

Since LA stations do not charge for spillage audience, the coverage is free. And the IE commercial stations get only about 32% of the total listening, so there is not much reason to buy them in many cases.

Granted, many times in theory a campaign can deliver enough points using only LA stations, but MOST adult buys should always at least consider using KFROG - I have no particular allegiance to this or any other IE station.

It is the nature of ad buyers to seek effeciencies where ever possible. This is nothing new. It happens all over the country anywhere a nearby or embeded market has significant spill from a major market.

One little correction... and ebedded market is part of the larger market. San Jose is embedded in the SF market, but the IE is mostly adjacent to the LA markets, bordering, also, on the Palm Springs and Victorville and San Diego markets.

No correction needed! Again minutia. You reiterated my intent.

but I do know that the radio industry as a whole, has had decreasing revenues for the last couple of years.

No, the growth is slow, but except for 2001, for obvious reasons, the industry is up a couple of percent a year.

I stand corrected. I should have said in the top 25 markets. June for example is expected to be off 2% nationwide and off 6% in the top 25 markets (RBR 7/23/07).

The big question is will the population grow fast enough to offset new technologies (wimax, etc) that create more competition for listeners and/or ad dollars?

It is just not a growth market. About the only segment that will grow is Hispanic, which is why Libberman went in.

Look, I think we are effectively saying the same thing.....Roy is spinning as he does so well, but there will be no positive paradigm shift in the way business is conducted for the IE in the immediate future.

And here's some minutia for ya, you misspelled "Liberman"

 

[doublecashkgb]

David is 100 percent correct. You seem to have no concept of what makes up the Riverside-San Bernardino metro. I programmed there in the 90's, the first thing I did was drive the actual metro market. Not what I imagined it to be.

 

[transent]

Population Growth vs. Radio Revenue Growth

There seems to be some confusion regarding population growth versus radio revenue growth. Everybody seems to agree that the Inland Empire region is growing at a remarkable rate but it doesn't change the fact that it is a "shadow market" to Los Angeles.

In areas such as San Diego and Sacramento, most (not all) of the potential radio listeners are unable to listen to out of market stations and that's what makes such a big difference between those markets and the Inland Empire region.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the bottom line seems to be that as long as a significant percentage of Inland Empire residents are able and choose to tune to Los Angeles area stations, even a population growth that exceeds projections will not change the fact that for every 1 new Inland Empire resident gained, it will not necessarily mean that they will tune to a local station - yet for every new resident gained in Sacramento for instance, who listens to radio, will basically have to tune to a local Sacramento station.

Sometime in the future, I don't see a "broadcasting" industry. I see a "narrowcasting" industry (with a few exceptions) where everybody will basically have their very own custom radio station and advertisements are specifically targeted to the listener making this whole issue of "radio markets" obsolete.

The only exception I see are LIVE call-in talk shows which can't be delivered on demand due to the interactive nature requiring a "mass" live audience.