Rural/Urban population trend and radio

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

The original premise I made in starting this thread was that listeners who live in rural areas are a different kind of target. They have different tastes, different expectations than do people who are dwellers in high-density metro area and urban areas.

After sifting through a great bunch of responses and contributions to the thread, I offer a second premise on why the relationship between the listener and the station can be different in the rural area. Since there is such a small portion of the public still living in the wide open spaces, it is hard to prove or disprove our views on radio in "the boonies". Hang-on.. this gets wordy.

I can remember when in metro areas there were some "spare parts" stations that could be picked up for modest sums. As we moved into the era of ratings-driven programming and sales, people realized there was serious money to be made with big city stations. No longer were the "winning stations" willing to ignore the marginal stations... which allowed the marginal stations in significant cities be toys and hobbies for some people in earlier years. In recent years every station became valuable if it was in the city, and the "big boys" with multiple stations could use their skills in research and programming to drive you into the ground if they could not convince you to sell to them under normal arms-length offers to purchase. That means even the marginal stations had to get their acts together and become part of the MBA driven business model. No more Mayberry "as shucks" style operations.. in the metro areas.

But when you are in a rural area, in maybe a county with a population of 30,000 people, operating from a city-of-license of 6,000 to 10,000 people, you are not valuable enough for the major corporate types to worry about acquiring you. (The exception of course are those FM stations which are close enough to metro areas to strip out and move toward town.)

Whether Rural thin-density listeners will accept or expect different programming and levels of service from their radio station or not,
the broadcaster who has one of these stations and has a mind-set to do service-oriented-radio... whatever we decide that is, does not have to lay awake nights thinking: I must kill my competitor before he kills me. The little market under normal conditions is not worth waging war over, and killing the competitor.

That concept used to work in 50% of the population of this country. Now that we are down to 16% of the population living in "not worth killing over" markets, there are few radio people even trying to wrap their brains around such a concept.

So, I propose there are two reasons that make radio in rural areas different than radio in metro areas:
1. What the rural audience expects from the station is different that what the metro audience expects.
2. Renegade owners can survive in rural areas, but will be quickly cannibalized in metro areas.

I guess we could say it takes renegade listeners coupled with renegade owners for radio to be at it's best in low-density population.

 

[redneckriviera]

Interesting thoughts, GRC.

I do wonder, though, whether we have passed through that phase where the real estate value of a radio station in a large market made it too valuable to leave in the smaller nearby market. Station sales are dead, and selling prices have plummeted. (I'm not gloomy about this--it's about time the speculators took their licking and went looking for the next bubble, elsewhere). Maybe the next wave of radio entrepreneurs will take a more realistic look at smaller markets.

I'm not certain whether expectations of metro and rural listeners are much different in today's world, except perhaps in the talent level of on-air folks. (Most people out here seem to understand that great performers will seek fame & fortune in LA or NYC, not Valentine, Nebraska or Coudersport, Pennsylvania--and we're okay with that).

A business friend came through our small market last week and was laughing about a news story about a lost cow wandering through downtown. He thought it was a hoot. I pointed out that it would have made the news on WBBM if it had happened in The Loop, too. The only difference is that cows don't have the fare to ride the "L" but here they can walk downtown!

 

[SirRoxalot]

In the end, isn't it all about serving your audience. There's a maxim, "All radio is local". People who live in smaller markets want to hear about their town, their teams, their government, their advertisers. With fewer media outlets, the ones that exist need to cover a wider swath than the specialization that happens in large markets. Keep a close eye on revenue as well as costs. If you cut costs, but it leaves you with an even greater loss in revenue, you've effectively shot yourself in the foot. In fact, that's not bad advice for any broadcaster.

 

[davideduardo]

Doing radio where you are is just a little bit different than Dallas or Charlotte or Chicago.

Only if you want to be different in Dallas...

I can recall when an AM in LA was #2 on Saturday mornings with swap shop... less than 15 years ago. PSAs for church socials and community health fairs abounded, and the station was present at many of those events. A priest hosted a Saturday talk show, followed by an attorney who specialized in domestic violence. The afternoon show took on the LA city council, and got important issues brought up. Local news came on every 30 minutes, 24/7. 100% local. Top 10 25-54 and 12+ in a number of books.

Then the landsharks took over...

But what Bill describes can work in a large market, but all the dudes with degrees and case studies under their arms think it is expensive and hokey.

 

[TheBigA]

I'm looking for more examples of how the shift from a 50% rural / 50% urban America to today's 18% rural / 82% urban America affects the business of radio.

I'm late to this thread and maybe someone else brought it up, but the 82% of non-rural America isn't all urban. It's just non-rural. And it makes a lot of sense when you think about it. The minute populations are attracted to a place, you get sidewalks and curbs. But you don't get skyscrapers and subways. Perhaps not even Starbucks and McDonalds.

So here's my social statistics background again. There are variations in rural markets, variations in urban markets, but a huge gap between the two. I'd suggest that at least 40% of the market is neither rural nor urban. It's neighborhoods without shopping districts, where residents drive to malls. They mainly get their media from nearby urban areas. But their immediate environment is neither rural nor urban. This situation is a creation of the last 30 years, where farmers have sold their land for profit, and younger families have left the cities. Where do they go? The middle. How does media work in the middle? It depends on the social associations of the particular people. If they commute to the urban area, they associate with the urban media. Yet we also find that wen they commute home, they want to know what's happening in their immediate neighborhood. That means small market media. Split loyalty. No surprise, because we're seeing it in OTA radio usage. They listen to radio, but they also use their phone, iPod, and Pandora account, or watch video on YouTube. That's why TSL is down...split loyalties, based on their geographical situation. Unless they fall in either of the extremes: Rural/urban. That's a very different form of behavior.

 

[amfmxm]

I'd suggest that at least 40% of the market is neither rural nor urban. It's neighborhoods without shopping districts, where residents drive to malls. They mainly get their media from nearby urban areas. But their immediate environment is neither rural nor urban.

Agreed. But also "neither rural nor urban" in another way--beyond geography: culturally and socioeconomically.

Well educated people who live in rural areas may have tastes & expectations of media more similar to the peers in the big city, and less-educated city dwellers may have media perspectives closer to their country cousins.

Same for rich and poor. Caucasian and African-American.

GRC, I don't know if you can paint with a broad brush, anymore--if we ever could.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Agreed. But also "neither rural nor urban" in another way--beyond geography: culturally and socioeconomically.

Well educated people who live in rural areas may have tastes & expectations of media more similar to the peers in the big city, and less-educated city dwellers may have media perspectives closer to their country cousins.

Same for rich and poor. Caucasian and African-American.

GRC, I don't know if you can paint with a broad brush, anymore--if we ever could.

I don't disagree with what you wrote here. My position, which assumed everything was black or white in a picture, is a starting point. We have participants here who are listeners, we have participants here who are long time players-in-the-game like yourself. For us to discuss what makes radio tick, what makes radio successful, what makes radio useful, what makes radio fun.... sometimes we have to make sure everyone in the discussion sees "the big picture". For our friends who are 30 and under who have lived all their lives in high density population areas that are truly part of a city, some of the logic we "seasoned citizens" throw into the conversation makes no sense at all.

For a guy like me who grew up 22 miles out in the cactus and mesquite, getting up early to hand-milk cows, with the nearest city 250 miles away... I have seen some values that need to be ground up like corn-meal and fitted into today's recipe for radio.... if and when appropriate.

Where I live now is a classic example of what you described as neither fully city or fully country. When I walk into a convenience store or a bait shop around here looking for a cup of coffee, I never known when I am going to be standing in line behind an executive officer of a Fortune 500 company and when I am going to be standing in line behind some one straight out the Ma and Pa Kettle Movies of the 1950s. Around here we call them "Mountain Men". Their tribe is alive and well. But we have enough of that other group that our county has the highest income per household of any county in Georgia. Other than one NCE doing religious music, we have no radio station for our 175,000 citizens. If it fell out of the sky tomorrow morning right in my back yard.... how would I program it? How would I define "community service" for the place in which I live?