Sadly....Radio Is in Trouble

[tomservo]

Once Sprint figures out how to roll out WiMAx, satellite will be pretty much dead or have to move to WiMax distribution.

They key part here is, "once (they) figure out how." WiMax seems to keep running into obstacles. The many people on the R-I boards who tout the coming onslaught of WiMax web radio anywhere act like it'll all happen withing a year or two. Sprint only covers a tiny portion of the land with their cellular hi speed internet--that land is mostly major population centers. WiMax may hit big in the big cities and smaller tech enclaves in the next 2-3 years, but people like me in more rural settings probably won't see it for 5+ years. What does that leave? Terrestrial and satellite radio for a looong time.

That is plenty of time to begin a reinvention phase that can help "save" radio... As for WiMax and other W-WAN services... I'll believe 'em when I can use 'em.

 

[SirRoxalot]

WiMax

You may find WiMax rolling out in rural areas sooner than you think. With governmental concern over the "digital divide", telecoms of all sorts are looking at WiMax as a "last mile" solution in rural areas where installing copper or fiber for high-speed access is cost-prohibitive.

Sprint and other cellular providers - who already have tower sites - also want in on the enhanced service packages like those offered by wired and VoIP phone services. Adding services adds to income, with relatively little difference in management or maintenance costs. WiMax makes that possible.

 

[jefflaurence]

Soon it will be usleless and so expensive to even have a tower site for a radio broadcasting array. Many stations (especially AM) are finding that there are SO few listeners, that they can't even get a "third caller" to win a prize. As an example I was considering purchasing a small market AM station. My partner and I went to the station on a Friday morning around 8am. The jock on the air was doing a good local communicative show, and the station was the only one in that county. I asked the amiable and charming deejay if he would do a quick call in contest, and I would provide the prize. I offered up a one hundred dollar bill. He couldn't even get ONE CALL. And we kept it up for an hour. I still have that C-Note. And in this case the real estate is worth FAR more than the station..but the tower had a big crack in the base insulator, and was leaning dangerously threatening to snap the taught guy wires and land on a 4 lane highway. Time bomb there. This would be like walking into a doctors office feeling perfectly fine with 160 thousand in cash and asking the kindy doc to make you sick as hell with a lean toward depression and alcoholism in exchange for the case of money.

Fewer and fewer younger demos are even attempting to listen to radio. It has become so un-cool that it is nearly dead ALREADY. Stations that stream are seeing more and more listeners online than over the air. It will be a matter of scant years (if that) before we start to see actual transmitting apparatus dismantled and pushed into the nearest lake. WiMax and to some extent even 3G cell service can provide broadband service so fast that a good 24kbps AAC stream can sound like a 128K stream at far far less cost than maintaining a transmitting facility.

And Sirius already knows whats gonna happen with the merger. XM will be thier audio service, and Sirius' sats will be the movies on demand service for in-car video. Watch and see.

 

[Chuck]

And Sirius already knows whats gonna happen with the merger. XM will be thier audio service, and Sirius' sats will be the movies on demand service for in-car video. Watch and see.

Have you visited a Chrysler dealer recently? Some of their cars already have the Sirius video in them! It sounds to me like they are banking on it. I know I wouldn’t bet against it...

 

[amfmxm]

Re: Technology

But, I am curious. SirRoxalot, what do you find distasteful about the old 7-7-7 rule. (BTW, when I began in radio, it was 5-5-

7 / 7 / 5+2 and 7 / 7 / 7 have been in effect since the 50's until the caps were increased under deregulation.

That's correct. The FCC passed "The Rule of Sevens" in 1953. You get a gold star!

 

[tomservo]

Re: WiMax

Sprint and other cellular providers - who already have tower sites - also want in on the enhanced service packages like those offered by wired and VoIP phone services. Adding services adds to income, with relatively little difference in management or maintenance costs. WiMax makes that possible.

What other cellular companies are pushing WiMax besides Sprint? I thought they were going it alone. If there's some other companies along, that may help things. 'Round here, once you get more than a few miles off the interstate, Sprint's digital coverage (i.e. the towers they actually own/lease) drops off and you're on dreaded "Analog Roam". I can't imagine the carriers who allow Sprint to roam would allow Sprint to install WiMax equipment on their towers. But then... If they get a piece of that pie...

As skeptical as I am, I'd drop this crappy DSL in a heartbeat for affordable, fast and reliable wireless internet!

It will be a matter of scant years (if that) before we start to see actual transmitting apparatus dismantled and pushed into the nearest lake.

Jeff I have to disagree with this sentence. The broadcast signal has a distinct advantage over the internet audio stream: It can support an infinite number of listeners. At some point, the streaming server will reach its limit and users will be locked out. The more listeners, the more $$$ it's gonna cost the broadcaster in bandwidth. It costs $xxx amount to power that transmitter whether 1 person is listening or 19,000...

I really don't see radio broadcasting going away in our lifetimes. Not even in our children's lifetimes. It may be a completely different landscape, but it'll still be there, because it's so cost-effective.

 

[FredRichards]

Keep your eye on Qualcomm, as well as what Sprint/Nextel will be doing to try to make some hay out of the massive debt they got into over BAS/2gHz relocation.

 

[oaktree]

"The effects of this panic are hurting efforts to develop new formats."

I'm sorry, but I disagree. On both "new formats" and "new shows." The bean counters are panicky because the "new formats" don't work, don't attract ad dollars and does not attract the "new generation."

Free FM - CBS - Joel Hollander, a disaster
Jack FM - CBS - Joel Hollander, marginally successful to poor returns - pulled in markets including New York
Movin' - Emmis & Others - Not successful
Classic Hits - Peaking in most markets
Howard Stern - Left to go to satellite ... with a fifth of the audience (but more money.)
Opie & Anthony - Dismal failures everywhere
Smooth Jazz - Not a money maker in but very few markets
Classic Country - Not working much. Ask WSM why.
Adult Standards / MOR - Not working much
Third & Fourth tier talk, including Air America - abysmal
Shock Radio - Has it's fans, but not enough of them -- and little advertising revenue
Clear Channel's "Format Lab" of 70 formats (you'll find them online) -- not ready for prime timeHa
Jukebox radio - Not doing well, no money.
HD Radio - No comment needed
HD2 streams - No comment needed
AM Radio - What's that?

It's about "content" ... not formats.

We have plenty of those. We, as radio people, just somehow ... don't get it.

 

[dbdigital]

Re: WiMax

Sprint and other cellular providers - who already have tower sites - also want in on the enhanced service packages like those offered by wired and VoIP phone services. Adding services adds to income, with relatively little difference in management or maintenance costs. WiMax makes that possible.

What other cellular companies are pushing WiMax besides Sprint? I thought they were going it alone. If there's some other companies along, that may help things. 'Round here, once you get more than a few miles off the interstate, Sprint's digital coverage (i.e. the towers they actually own/lease) drops off and you're on dreaded "Analog Roam". I can't imagine the carriers who allow Sprint to roam would allow Sprint to install WiMax equipment on their towers. But then... If they get a piece of that pie...

As skeptical as I am, I'd drop this crappy DSL in a heartbeat for affordable, fast and reliable wireless internet!

It will be a matter of scant years (if that) before we start to see actual transmitting apparatus dismantled and pushed into the nearest lake.

Jeff I have to disagree with this sentence. The broadcast signal has a distinct advantage over the internet audio stream: It can support an infinite number of listeners. At some point, the streaming server will reach its limit and users will be locked out. The more listeners, the more $$$ it's gonna cost the broadcaster in bandwidth. It costs $xxx amount to power that transmitter whether 1 person is listening or 19,000...

I really don't see radio broadcasting going away in our lifetimes. Not even in our children's lifetimes. It may be a completely different landscape, but it'll still be there, because it's so cost-effective.

Of course, the 700 MHz band is all about that; providing unlimited, fast, inexpensive broadband access to anyone, anywhere in the U.S. It will be a direct competitor to cable and DSL and be especially useful in providing broadband and cell phone service to rural areas. Even cities with their concentration of tall buildings will benefit. The 700 MHz band could even be used for WiMax (although, at this point, WiMax uses a different part of the spectrum).

But once the 700 MHz auction is over and the DTV transition has been completed, I think by 2010 we'll see some amazing things begin to happen for the internet, internet radio (and TV) and communications as a whole.

db

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Of course, the 700 MHz band is all about that; providing unlimited, fast, inexpensive broadband access to anyone, anywhere in the U.S. It will be a direct competitor to cable and DSL and be especially useful in providing broadband and cell phone service to rural areas.

The pace of change gets faster and faster, and maybe the cell phone industry can do the things some of you are dreaming about. And maybe not.

For almost four years I worked in the marketing department of a company making the antennas that are up on all those towers that now sit in everybodys back yard...... well, at least everybody in major cities.

I listened to all the shop talk about the buying philosophy of the various companies. Some of that infrastructure was built in a hurry by guys and gals on a bonus plan where the cheaper they built ithe base station site, the bigger their bonus. Some companies were simply on a campaign to get it built just in time to "bait the trap" for the next acuisiton/merger rounds. Some of those companies are lucky to get voice calls completed with success. Lots of luck on trying to add broadband and video and streaming on top of the sometimes marginal phone service.

Now, how much of the 700 mhz spectrum is actually going to available for auction to these folks? One of the pressures on Nextel to get out of some of it was so the public safety crowd could talk during emergencies without being squelched by cell phone calls.

Here in North Georgia when my district manager comes to visit me, she has to go out in the front yard of the building to have a phone conversation. And they're going to put video and streaming on top of that? What year?

Looks like we might squeeze a few more years out of radio broadcasting.... at least in rural America.

 

[tomservo]

Howard Stern - Left to go to satellite ... with a fifth of the audience (but more money.)
Opie & Anthony - Dismal failures everywhere
Shock Radio - Has it's fans, but not enough of them -- and little advertising revenue

At least in these cases, the lawyers have to share some of the blame. Why would anyone listen to 'neutered' shock radio? O&A shoulda stuck with XM instead of trying to conquer Stern's old slot. Stern did the right thing by getting out when he did. O&A had lots of creative freedom on satellite. Now, they're handcuffed on FM and have a thumb on them on XM (even if XM claims they don't.)

There are other similar shows out there, and each has their own set of restrictions and all of them way overreach what the FCC forbids. I think the entertainment/shock type of radio could work if there was more creative freedom allowed. I'm not talking like, overnight success... But it could be a money maker if done right, in the right parts of America.

And that's another thing. Why is a format not a success if it doesn't work right out of the box in every market? Success should be defined by market, not by format. These radio guys gotta learn that you can't expect a winner in LA to play well in Spokane. And what plays well there might not work in Hattiesburg. The only reason classic hits has 'worked' so well everywhere is it's so bland, inoffensive and over-researched that it only plays the biggest testers. The songs that 'everyone can listen to, even the boss'. Eventually people will burn out on it... What's the next flash in the pan format?

Hey. That gives me an idea. The format is "we switch formats every six months no matter what".

Now, let me tie this into WiMax. Will WiMax really take away listeners of mainstream formats? Why would I go to the internet (in my car) for something I already get for free from the local classic hits, AC, CHR and country flamethrowers? The smooth jazz fans in Branson and the country fans in NYC may find solace, but are they even listening to the radio now?

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Howard Stern - Left to go to satellite ... with a fifth of the audience (but more money.)
Opie & Anthony - Dismal failures everywhere
Shock Radio - Has it's fans, but not enough of them -- and little advertising revenue

At least in these cases, the lawyers have to share some of the blame. Why would anyone listen to 'neutered' shock radio?

I don't want to come across as the village prude here, but Zack, may I suggest that you not confuse creativeness with crudeness.

You live in the state where the "Poster Child" for 10 Commandments in courthouses lives.

This coming year is the year we find out if the Republican party is owned by the Evangelicals or if they have lost their control of the party. Until this war in Iraq took center stage, what was the hot-button legilative item for George Bush and the Republicans:.... A law to make sure everyone understands The Sanctity of Marriage!

Yes, if you have one shock-jock in town and the your metro area has 20 or 30 stations, there are enough people around who are open to shock-style programming to populate ONE station with good numbers.

I am one who fled the Bible thumpin' piney woods down south to spend 40 years up in the land of ice and snow where there was more social freedom, more political freedom, more thought freedom so I am a friend of those who want to make sure the media have freedom to explore and report.

The business owner who may tell you a joke to rival anything the shock-jock said on the air today may cancel his advertising contract if he finds you are broadcasting that level of shock to his 13 year old grand daughter.

I sometimes get the idea broadcast programmers don't socialize with "real people" and engage in debates about politics, ethics, morals and faith with "real people". Some of you will protest that statement, and rightfully so. It is overly genarlized. But tune across the dial with me some afternoon and we drive between cities and after we have listened to the product for awhile, I'll say it again.

 

[tomservo]

I don't want to come across as the village prude here, but Zack, may I suggest that you not confuse creativeness with crudeness.

You live in the state where the "Poster Child" for 10 Commandments in courthouses lives.

This coming year is the year we find out if the Republican party is owned by the Evangelicals or if they have lost their control of the party. Until this war in Iraq took center stage, what was the hot-button legilative item for George Bush and the Republicans:.... A law to make sure everyone understands The Sanctity of Marriage!

Yes, if you have one shock-jock in town and the your metro area has 20 or 30 stations, there are enough people around who are open to shock-style programming to populate ONE station with good numbers.

I am one who fled the Bible thumpin' piney woods down south to spend 40 years up in the land of ice and snow where there was more social freedom, more political freedom, more thought freedom so I am a friend of those who want to make sure the media have freedom to explore and report.

The business owner who may tell you a joke to rival anything the shock-jock said on the air today may cancel his advertising contract if he finds you are broadcasting that level of shock to his 13 year old grand daughter.

I sometimes get the idea broadcast programmers don't socialize with "real people" and engage in debates about politics, ethics, morals and faith with "real people". Some of you will protest that statement, and rightfully so. It is overly genarlized. But tune across the dial with me some afternoon and we drive between cities and after we have listened to the product for awhile, I'll say it again.

As I said, it's not a format that can work everywhere, but that doesn't mean it can't be a modest success. There aren't any shock jock type shows here in Mississippi or Alabama and they wouldn't survive there. But the ones who are out there now ARE in big, 'progressive' northern cities like New York, Boston and Chicago. Creative or crude, it doesn't matter; the lawyers don't like it and people are tuning out because it's a let-down. Between Janet, Imus and the water drinking contest, lawyers are all in a panic and they're over-reaching.

That same mentality carries over into format innovation, in my opinion. No one is willing to stick with a modest success, everyone wants "the next big thing". All this probably ties in to the broadcasters not socializing with "real people" as you said.

If you don't mind me asking, GRC, where did you leave in the piney sounth, and where'd you wind up? I've been trying to escape the south for years, but can't seem to cut the cord.

 

[adma]

Here's another thing: other than the "given" of car radios, what about the radio itself, as an appliance? Do people "actively" buy them anymore, other than as cheap wind-up emergency measures?

Something tells me that an awful lot of radio listening is presently done on aging appliances out of long-term inertia--said appliances are now nearing the end of their functional life, and once they bite the dust, there'll be little initiative to repair or replace, from either the customer or sales end...

 

[ruger22com]

terrestrial radio is like the buggy whip industry.
Once there was a great need for it.....but when engines replaced horses (as sat radio will replace terr radio), you don't see many buggy whips any more.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

terrestrial radio is like the buggy whip industry.
Once there was a great need for it.....but when engines replaced horses (as sat radio will replace terr radio), you don't see many buggy whips any more.

We understand what you are saying, and I would agree that terrestrial radio may indeed be in for some big changes. But I would suggest you have come up with a apples vs oranges comparison to use the old cliche.

I live in a county of 100,000 people out at the north edge of Metro Atlanta. If I am driving to work next year and the significant road that I normally drive has been closed by a traffic accident, are they going to interrupt ALL channels of satellite radio to make it possible for me to select an alternate route?

If we have a major thunderstorm and flash floods are headed for my house or my place of business, can I expect sat radio to bring me that news.

We have a volatile political climate in our local government. Can I expect election results for my county if I listen to sat radio while eating breakfast?

Granted, if terrestrial radio is going to survive, it is going to have to battle head-to-head with the cell-phone industry and streaming audio from various sources if it is going to survive..... and sat radio has no guarantee that it can survive against the cell-phone streaming juggernaut.

Maybe you can answer a question that no one else has been able to answer for me. What percentage of the people are "Music Centric". How many people will line up for whatever media brings them the music they want? 20%? 40% 60%? Much of the logic of discussion groups is that music is 97% of what people want from radio and the demand for news, for weather, for sports, for just some good conversation, is may 3% of what people want from radio. If that is true, then your scenario for sat radio is rosy.

 

[adma]

Maybe you can answer a question that no one else has been able to answer for me. What percentage of the people are "Music Centric". How many people will line up for whatever media brings them the music they want? 20%? 40% 60%? Much of the logic of discussion groups is that music is 97% of what people want from radio and the demand for news, for weather, for sports, for just some good conversation, is may 3% of what people want from radio. If that is true, then your scenario for sat radio is rosy.

But it's also fuel for the "iPod killed the radio star" argument. Now, *there's* media that brings people the music they want...

 

[flashback]

radio will survive .unfortunatly it will still either be dumbed down smaller playlist of songs and polarized political talk show.

 

[tomservo]

I live in a county of 100,000 people out at the north edge of Metro Atlanta. If I am driving to work next year and the significant road that I normally drive has been closed by a traffic accident, are they going to interrupt ALL channels of satellite radio to make it possible for me to select an alternate route?

If we have a major thunderstorm and flash floods are headed for my house or my place of business, can I expect sat radio to bring me that news.

We have a volatile political climate in our local government. Can I expect election results for my county if I listen to sat radio while eating breakfast?

Granted, if terrestrial radio is going to survive, it is going to have to battle head-to-head with the cell-phone industry and streaming audio from various sources if it is going to survive..... and sat radio has no guarantee that it can survive against the cell-phone streaming juggernaut.

Maybe you can answer a question that no one else has been able to answer for me. What percentage of the people are "Music Centric". How many people will line up for whatever media brings them the music they want? 20%? 40% 60%? Much of the logic of discussion groups is that music is 97% of what people want from radio and the demand for news, for weather, for sports, for just some good conversation, is may 3% of what people want from radio. If that is true, then your scenario for sat radio is rosy.

Well, to be fair, Atlanta has a dedicated traffic channel on XM and one on Sirius as well. But no, they're not going to interrupt all the channels for a road closure. And they won't let you know a thunderstorm is headed your way, or what your local election results are.

Anyway, I live in a small town (where radio is still 'in the hands of locals') and I can tell you: none of our stations would do any of the above, either. Hell, a storm comes through and they all go off the air! If it weren't for weather radio and the internet, we'd never know when a storm is coming, because the local TV stations' weather coverage stinks. Small markets, for ya. :

I still think there's a market for those of us who just want music (sat. radio) and those who want a lot of local interaction (terrestrial radio). The wireless internet future will eat into the sat. radio pie, but it won't be giving you election results (unless they come from Bangalore) or weather reports (unless they come from Vancouver) or traffic (Berlin?)... And if you stream your local station, why not just tune it in on the ol' radio?

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Anyway, I live in a small town (where radio is still 'in the hands of locals') and I can tell you: none of our stations would do any of the above, either. Hell, a storm comes through and they all go off the air! If it weren't for weather radio and the internet, we'd never know when a storm is coming, because the local TV stations' weather coverage stinks. Small markets, for ya. :

I still think there's a market for those of us who just want music (sat. radio) and those who want a lot of local interaction (terrestrial radio). The wireless internet future will eat into the sat. radio pie, but it won't be giving you election results (unless they come from Bangalore) or weather reports (unless they come from Vancouver) or traffic (Berlin?)... And if you stream your local station, why not just tune it in on the ol' radio?

It pains me to see little local radio stations doing nothing. Not covering the storms. I have been spending some time brain-storming the buggy-whip scenario for the last four years. What can a "micro market" station do that most are NOT doing currently, and how can they enhance revenues in order to pay for what OUGHT to be done.

Some of us live in counties where county government streams a video of election results. Why couldn't the operator of a micro-market radio station be doing that. Why would local radio stream? Because they are daytime only? Because the night-time power gives them 5 or 6 miles of coverage when they need 8 to 12. Because expatriots living in the big cities where the jobs are still want to keep up with home town and will listen to election night stream, sports night stream, storm night stream. Many of them return home often enough that advertisers want to keep in touch with them. Many of them are responsible for aging parents back in the little town and are making buying decisions for the parents that can be influenced by the radio/streaming advertising.

If you sit down night after night and while watching Miami C.S.I. and Law and Order you take your legal tablet along and start jotting down whimsical ideas, you soon come up with 173 or 229 bright ideas.... of which 30 or 40 might be practical and take that broken down (during the storm) radio station and make it into a viable enterprise that becomes the talk of the town.

(Any body interested in buying my list? <insert big, wide grin here.>

P.S. Atlanta traffic is SO BAD and SO BIG that listening to terrestrial radio traffic is pretty sad. They try to cover it all and they talk so fast you can't understand what they are saying. And typically they are telling you what was the situation 90 minutes ago. If they say a road is blocked, chances are it's clear by the time they report it.