Satcasters down

[lipripper]

From MarketWatch.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...BAC-A250-41D3-AE44-055B7808A947}&siteid=yhoof

Shares of Sirius fell 14% June 19, 2008, and XM was down 18% after Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes issued a negative long-term outlook for the two satcasters, saying demand for medium is diminishing.

Wienkes also believes that any stock strength related to the potential merger of the two companies has dissipated. Additionally, he said, the "core demand for satellite radio [is] falling amongst the younger demographics" in favor of new technologies, such as music players and mobile phones.


[ Link added by Radio-Info. In the future, please provide a URL to the originating source as courtesy][color]

 

[taylorengineer]

The new wireless technology will soon render satcasting obsolete. All the sat channels will be duplicated on free internet based providers - with the exception of Stern.
Survival will be based on content. He who provides the most compelling content wins.
Who amongst the media mavens will provide the "most compelling" content??

 

[jabba17]

Satellite's biggest Achilles' heels are:

1) Your subscription isn't particularly portable; 2 cars=2 subscriptions, unless you have one of those modular snap-in tuners--and even then, only one person gets to use it and listen to one thing. Yes, I know that XM gives you a discount on additional receivers, but that's a rip compared to cable, where additional receivers are free (for now, at least, until everyone gets pushed onto digital cable).

2) You have to pay--but you have to pay for HBO, too, for the privilege of not hearing commercials. Most people can buy that. The exception will be the demos that can't afford/won't pay, like teenybopper CHR/active rock, urban, Latino, and country, among others.

On the other hand...

1) If you think satellite is expensive, try getting music over a cellphone.

2) MP3 players still stick you with your own songs--not new stuff.

The new wireless technology will soon render satcasting obsolete.

Are you talking about WiMAX?

WiMAX will be interesting. However, to be truly competitive with any existing option the price will have to come way down (compared to existing cellphone data plans). Not saying it can't--it probably will--but the cellphone companies need to realize that to get the penetration they want with data services the price will have to come down. Of course, as a wired broadband (cable/DSL) replacement, a higher price may be offset from other services that can be dropped as redundant.

Lastly, someone will still have to pay for the content. That means advertising of some sort, or a paid subscription to a premium service.

 

[murcuryvapor]

The new wireless technology will soon render satcasting obsolete. All the sat channels will be duplicated on free internet based providers - with the exception of Stern.
Survival will be based on content. He who provides the most compelling content wins.
Who amongst the media mavens will provide the "most compelling" content??

Yep-we'll see. Content is king, and Stern already streams.

If you're a die-hard fan of anything, there will certainly be the option of self-streaming i.e. a playlist through an mp3 cast from your PC through your own private stream, or from a fixed audio device via the same. I listened to an audio source from my home through a yahoo chat room on a remote computer. Not Hi-Fi, but it certainly demonstrates it can be done. So, once WiMax gets off the ground in a serious way-also the qualcomm channel 55 service-more options pop up. But it's the content.

 

[upstate29651]

Shares of Sirius fell 14% June 19, 2008, and XM was down 18% after Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes issued a negative long-term outlook for the two satcasters, saying demand for medium is diminishing.

Wienkes also believes that any stock strength related to the potential merger of the two companies has dissipated. Additionally, he said, the "core demand for satellite radio [is] falling amongst the younger demographics" in favor of new technologies, such as music players and mobile phones.

Why is this on the Atlanta board, and not the satellite radio board?

G

 

[Barbapapa]

If radio had just now been invented the talk would be that it would make satellite, pods etc. obsolete. There's something about being able to have your music or talk available at anytime without keeping track of subscriptions or DJing your own stuff. The average listener doesn't want to deal with much beyond turning something on.
So why don't the satellite companies flood the world with cheap or free receivers and make money on advertising?

 

[lipripper]

Whoopsie. Forgot the link

 

[TheRealOtherNeil]

Satellite's biggest Achilles' heels are:

1) Your subscription isn't particularly portable; 2 cars=2 subscriptions, unless you have one of those modular snap-in tuners--and even then, only one person gets to use it and listen to one thing. Yes, I know that XM gives you a discount on additional receivers, but that's a rip compared to cable, where additional receivers are free (for now, at least, until everyone gets pushed onto digital cable).

2) You have to pay--but you have to pay for HBO, too, for the privilege of not hearing commercials. Most people can buy that. The exception will be the demos that can't afford/won't pay, like teenybopper CHR/active rock, urban, Latino, and country, among others.

On the other hand...

1) If you think satellite is expensive, try getting music over a cellphone.

2) MP3 players still stick you with your own songs--not new stuff.

The new wireless technology will soon render satcasting obsolete.

Are you talking about WiMAX?

WiMAX will be interesting. However, to be truly competitive with any existing option the price will have to come way down (compared to existing cellphone data plans). Not saying it can't--it probably will--but the cellphone companies need to realize that to get the penetration they want with data services the price will have to come down. Of course, as a wired broadband (cable/DSL) replacement, a higher price may be offset from other services that can be dropped as redundant.

Lastly, someone will still have to pay for the content. That means advertising of some sort, or a paid subscription to a premium service.

I have my mp3 player hooked to my car stereo and you are right that getting new music is not an option…unless I hear a song I like somewhere, download it and add it to the mp3 player. It’s 2008, not 1977, The Buzzcocks are not walking through that door. (Pardon my Rick Pitano.) There is so little good new music to be made aware of anyway.

Just my expert analysis, that’s all.

 

[murcuryvapor]

If radio had just now been invented the talk would be that it would make satellite, pods etc. obsolete. There's something about being able to have your music or talk available at anytime without keeping track of subscriptions or DJing your own stuff. The average listener doesn't want to deal with much beyond turning something on.
So why don't the satellite companies flood the world with cheap or free receivers and make money on advertising?

As an 'average TV watcher', I prefer watching stuff when I want to, rather than on a schedule. Do you think lack of interest makes it a popular feature on cable systems and Netflix?
'Keeping track of subscriptions'? You mean like a bill, delivered on a monthly basis, perhaps automatically deducted? Who does that? What adult keeps track of financial obligations?

And don't get me started on those home made CDs!

 

[Barbapapa]

As an 'average TV watcher', I prefer watching stuff when I want to, rather than on a schedule. Do you think lack of interest makes it a popular feature on cable systems and Netflix?
'Keeping track of subscriptions'? You mean like a bill, delivered on a monthly basis, perhaps automatically deducted? Who does that? What adult keeps track of financial obligations?

And don't get me started on those home made CDs!

I don't think TV and cable are at all like radio and satellite. Nobody is spending 8 hours a day every day glued to a couch listening to music or talk. A cable bill is high priority right up there with alchohol and tobacco but if music and talk required anything beyond an outstretched arm and twisting motion, that might not be enough motivation.
Even among music enthusiasts, most of the time you don't put much effort into it because music and talk in the realm of radio and satellite are background noise while the listener is doing something else. Radio will always have the advantage of being there all the time with no effort required.

 

[jabba17]

I have my mp3 player hooked to my car stereo and you are right that getting new music is not an option…unless I hear a song I like somewhere, download it and add it to the mp3 player. It’s 2008, not 1977, The Buzzcocks are not walking through that door. (Pardon my Rick Pitano.) There is so little good new music to be made aware of anyway.

Just my expert analysis, that’s all.

In order to hear a new song and add it to your MP3, you have to hear it somewhere else. Could be live, could be from a friend (whoops! RIAA won't let you do that anymore!), could be on satellite, could be on terrestrial.

Since I got XM, I hear a lot of stuff that fits an old format or time period that I never heard the first go-round (I didn't listen to Album 88 back then and Z-93, 94Q, 96 Rock, and Power 99 never played it at the time), or heard once or twice and forgot about, or never knew artist and title (and therefore couldn't buy). Additionally, a lot of old bands are still releasing good stuff that gets zero airplay (e.g., Boston, Cheap Trick)--maybe once or twice on satellite but never on terrestrial.

I think that that is the appeal of throwback shows (99X's old House/Duplex/Metroplex of Retro Pleasure), theme weekends on Star and B98.5, etc.--they play stuff that didn't get burned out 20-30 years ago (often by the same station under a different moniker!). Satellite can and does do this better, but there's no excuse for terrestrial to not mix things up more than they do.

 

[hughj]

When I hear the arguments for the impending death of satellite radio, the one thing I don't hear mentioned is one of the biggest pluses in my book - the ability to tune my XM radio to a station in Atlanta and listen all the way to Chicago without touching the dial.

With all the other competitors I hear mentioned, you are still limited by how far the signal will carry. Even with a cell phone based system, I still find areas without coverage. I never have that problem with XM.

It's become so ubiquitous in the trucking industry that quite a few companies are equipping their truck with satellite radio as an incentive to new drivers.

 

[taylorengineer]

When I hear the arguments for the impending death of satellite radio, the one thing I don't hear mentioned is one of the biggest pluses in my book - the ability to tune my XM radio to a station in Atlanta and listen all the way to Chicago without touching the dial.

With all the other competitors I hear mentioned, you are still limited by how far the signal will carry. Even with a cell phone based system, I still find areas without coverage. I never have that problem with XM.

It's become so ubiquitous in the trucking industry that quite a few companies are equipping their truck with satellite radio as an incentive to new drivers.

Good point Hughj - the 3G network will take some time to roll out and there will never be coverage out in the middle of East Nowhereville.
Only problem with XM/Siruis is content. There is none! Well....with the exception of Stern....maybe Dave Ramsey....and bluegrass......there are NOT enough *compelling* reasons to cough up money to get it.
Many subscribers are there for only one thing - Howard Stern. When he can stream to most these people he will leave Sirius and keep all the money for himself. I wonder how many cross country warriors make up the XM/Sirius subscriber pool - most folks I know with sat are doing the intown commute.

 

[hughj]

No content? That surprises me. That was the main reason I got XM three years ago - I couldn't find anything on Atlanta radio worth listening to. With XM I have every variety of talk there is, half a dozen good country stations and (especially for long trips) - the Old Time Radio channel. Nothing makes the miles float by like a good Gunsmoke or an old Dragnet.