the need for AM in passenger vehicles has diminished to the point where Congress is wrong -- imagine that!-- to have sided with a vocal minority who believe it necessary.*
They're not voting for this because they believe it's a necessity. The fact is that the radio spectrum is a public resource, just like water, forests, minerals, and other similar assets, owned by the taxpayers. Shutting it down, or allowing it to go away, regardless of the practicality of AM radio, is politically impossible to defend. The finances of maintaining AM costs the taxpayers nothing. The costs are incurred by the licensees. In exchange, the licensees pay the FCC a fee. As I've said, there's no upside to the FCC shutting stations down. The federal government is prohibited by law from owning AM radio stations.
I think that by 2030 it will be overwhelmingly obvious that the mandate for AM in cars is/was totally insufficient to save the service,
That wasn't the purpose of the legislation.
I believe that when it comes to that point, the process is going to allow AM/translator combos to become a separately licensed FM class of service and the "link" between the licenses broken so that the AM license can be surrendered without penalty.
That's not what the FCC intended. If you read the original AM revitalization plan, they foresaw a time when AM stations would go full digital. Right now, that's obviously impractical. But by 2030, who knows? The opening I see is the chance for AM owners to sell their tower land and find other ways to merchandise their AM assets so they don't hurt the owners. On top of it, as I said, I expect them to find ways to increase the power of translators, contingent on them retaining their AM signals.