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Seattle and PPM

R

radioprofessor

Guest
I find it highly irrational that anyone in this market will change format in the next 20 months. The Arbitron PPM will replace the diary method in this market in Summer of 09. It will work side by side with the diary until Fall 09 when we shift to full PPM with no diary. A perceptual analysis of the Seattle market using the People Meter Parametric reveals that significant shifts will take place. Based on data from Philly, Houston and the current LA/NY tests there will be radical changes in ratings. Applying those principals to the Seattle market can be done with parametric testing. The following formats appear to benefit from the meter: Rock, Classic Rock, Hot/AC, Mainstream CHR and Oldies. The following formats are hurt by the meter: Hispanic, urban, rhythmic, talk, new, Christian, and niche formats. The remaining formats remain fairly similar, though demos are affected. The projected analysis for Seattle under the PPM parametrics are intriguing. Keep in mind this is a forecast based on current dynamics of the meter and only in the 25-54 demographic:

25-54
#1 KISW The station projected a commanding lead.
#2 KZOK The station was already strong in the demographic, it got stronger
#3 KPLZ PPM is kind to Hot/AC, it retains females and gains males
#4 KMPS Established brand remains strong
#5 KMTT Benefits from PPM
#6 KBKS Huge benefit from PPM, #1 18-34
#7 KBSG Provided they stay in the Oldies realm. The station might look at returning to its roots like WCBS.
#8 KNDD Huge benefit from PPM, #1 18-34 males

You can see the clear impact of PPM. The influence of males, appointment listening, established personality shows and the working audience (which in PPM drive 80% of numbers) is more pronounced. Afternoon drive and Mornings will carry equal importance in the PPM world. Dial position and avoiding tune out phrases like, "we'll be right back" or "coming up" are critical. Thought I would share some of the Seattle PPM study, but not all of the tricks. These are the most obvious and will get national attention in the coming months as more markets test the impact of PPM. It is my view that no station in Seattle should change format until the PPM comes out. The study above reveals significant projected potential for stations like KBKS, KNDD, KPLZ and KBSG in the PPM methodology.
 
I pretty much agree with ya cowboy. I only know what I know from my buds in Texas. In houston KTBZ, the alternative station got a damn nice kiss from the PPM and so did HOT/AC KHMX and CHR KRBE. The Box dropped a bit and the top dog Spanish stations went from first to tenth. KTRH, the big news talk went to 17th. Country slipped a bit in 25-54, but KKBQ is still top five. Couple of questions prof. Why does country and AC seem to lose all its 18-44 numbers? Why are AM stations losing all their 25-54 in the PPM? I kinda get why the guy stations are doin better, cause gawd knows we'd never take the time to fill out a diary ;D

Good to have ya on this board dude.
 
I agree with most of the analysis and find the projected PPM numbers for Seattle pretty much on track with the Philly and Houston numbers. The only point I would make is that AC stations like WBEB in Philly and KODA in Houston are number 1 12+ and in the six count. They do not perform as well 25-54 compared to the diary, but still do well. WBEB is more like a cross between a soft/ac and a personality Hot/AC so it kinda supports your Hot/AC benefit of PPM. My initial reaction is that Country and AC have a much older audience base in PPM than the old diary method. HOT/AC and CHR have more 25-54 numberswith PPM compared to the diary method, in fact more numbers overall at first blush. AM news and talk stations, even strong ones like KYW in Philly are 70% 55+. In Houston AM was destroyed. AM will need to rethink itself in the PPM world. 25-54 males are not on the AM dial in PPM. Male rock, oldies, classic hits and classic rock really benefit from the PPM.
LA and NY roll out soon, so expect more discussion on this issue. The major issue with the PPM is the declining AQH and the fallout from the collapse of Hispanic, urban, rhythmic formats Cume is up, but AQH is way off. This will affect CPP from an agency perspective. This is clearly the biggest change in radio in a couple of decades from the sales side.
 
blah blah blah. No one knows what will happen in Seattle with the PPM. The speculation is just a bunch of male chest pounding. ROCK is up, Males are up. ya ya right.
Each market will be different. In lily white Seattle, rock and male stations already have their fare share and hispanic already doesn't rate well. Maybe AM needs to rethink, but
JACK, MOVIN and KJR-FM have grown the most in this market in the last few years. These stations focus on at work (big in PPM), few interuptions (so people don't tune out) and a 25-54 music position. the most rideculous part of the profs post is the belief that BJ, Bob Rivers, Kent and Alan and Ichabod will still be around when PPM hits town. Shows how little you know mr professor. ya ya funny. Rivers, K@A and Ichy will be long fired or retired by the time any PPM numbers hit Seattle. These aging gentlemen will be pushing 60 in two or three years. ya really think they will be a factor? come on, get real. Project all you want professor projector, but no one really knows what will happen. Mamma does agree that everyone should stay in their format until the numbers come our way. I suspect in Seattle some surprises are in store. It may not be the male stations or the old morning shows doin the ya ya dance. Mammaknowsbest!!!
 
Let's compare some stations:
In Top 40:
KRBE...Top 5 or 6...got stronger...good station benefits
Q102...weak already and got weaker...poor station sucks more
KBKS...weak already...gets weaker...poor station sucks more

Hot AC
Mix 96.5...strong station that was underperforming in the ratings...PPM went waaaaayyyy up.
B101...At the Top...stayed about the same
KPLZ...underperforming in the ratings will go up even more than now/Movin 92.5 doing very well already up again

Country
XTU middle of the pack stays strong
KILT and KKBQ improve dramatically in Houston
KKWF and KMPS will improve dramatically...both could be #1 and #2 either way 12+ in this market. The Wolf will be #1 mark my words. The ratings for Country in Seattle will mirror what has been fairly consistent in Austin, Tx between KVET and KASE

My prediction for the Seattle PPM are as follows:
1. KKWF
2. KMPS
3. KPLZ
4. KKND
5. KQMV
6. KISW
7. KCMS

that is my top 7 picks...Alternative is way underperforming in the ratings...Country is underperforming and Hot AC including Movin 92.5 also are underperforming.
I will say KUBE, JACK, News/Talk will take a hit. Seattle's AM stations are far stronger than the ones in Houston, so how much of a hit they will take is anyone's guess. As in Politics Polls can sometimes be off as in judging what happens in the Pre-season will happen in the regular season is foolish. Just wait for the actual results to start flowing in.
KKND is suffering because of poor programming...not music mind you. I think a Re-launch should happen to get the station on a fresh role.
 
Some quick comments:

Dan: The AC stations in question in Philly and Houston were already strong. The PPM diminished their strength 25-54 compared to the diary. Your characterization of WBEB as a blend of AC and Hot/AC elements is correct.

Takeit: Country declines 18-44 in the PPM because it is overreported in the diary. Country, Urban, Hispanic all have diary keepers that claim "that is the only station they listen too." In fact they listen to many more stations. Same issue with News, Talk and NPR. Diary keepers feel they must say they listen to these stations, more than they really do. This is very true of the 25-54 demographic.

Mamma: You are an interesting person. You see the same things I do, but come to conclusions that defy reality. KQMV is a niche format that succeeds no where else in the Country and only survives in Seattle because of a weak Mainstream CHR. The high TSL automated formats are severely over-reported and PPM makes the correction.

Redbull: Country remains in the middle of the pack in Houston and did not improve 18-34 or 25-54. To say an 18-34 driven Country in Seattle will be number one defies logic on several levels. KKWF succeeds 18-34 due to weakness in KBKS and KMPS. That will change. KISW and KZOK will most certainly benefit, not decline from the additional male reporting in the PPM. Oldies and Hot/AC are under-reported and will grow. You do make one very important statement: "poor stations will suck more." PPM will not make a bad station better. It can eliminate over-reporting and under-reporting of good stations.
 
I am an "interesting person?" Gee thanks prof. With PPM here is how the stations stack up.
KISW
MOVIN
KZOK
KUBE
JACK
KJR-FM

Hey prof, if you beloved KISS wants to be a player, ya better read the other threads on this board and flip em. My vote is for a rock
format or something new. Rivers isn't equipped (the guy is sixty) to program to 18-34 women.
 
mammaknowsbest said:
I am an "interesting person?" Gee thanks prof. With PPM here is how the stations stack up.
KISW
MOVIN
KZOK
KUBE
JACK
KJR-FM

Hey prof, if you beloved KISS wants to be a player, ya better read the other threads on this board and flip em. My vote is for a rock
format or something new. Rivers isn't equipped (the guy is sixty) to program to 18-34 women.
Click to expand...

mamma you're my hero!
 
redbullfan said:
My prediction for the Seattle PPM are as follows:
1. KKWF
2. KMPS
3. KPLZ
4. KKND
5. KQMV
6. KISW
7. KCMS

that is my top 7 picks...Alternative is way underperforming in the ratings...Country is underperforming and Hot AC including Movin 92.5 also are underperforming.
I will say KUBE, JACK, News/Talk will take a hit. Seattle's AM stations are far stronger than the ones in Houston, so how much of a hit they will take is anyone's guess. As in Politics Polls can sometimes be off as in judging what happens in the Pre-season will happen in the regular season is foolish. Just wait for the actual results to start flowing in.
KKND is suffering because of poor programming...not music mind you. I think a Re-launch should happen to get the station on a fresh role.
Click to expand...


All of that is based on incorrect format speculation and an incomplete understanding of specific station targets. Cases in point: KNDD and KPLZ (for starters, the most obvious ones). Any station that is not up to your snuff is "underperforming." That's more a statement of personal preference than reality.

Not to mention your assumption that everything will stay the same as they are right now. Which, even in vanilla Seattle, they do not. There are way too many variables to predict things in 2009.
 
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