Seattle PPM: The Real Story

[djdan]

Looking at PPM by the day, week or single month is typically not the way most media buyers are using the data in other markets. Most use a two or three month rolling average and adjust it for the season. Baseball happens in Summer and affects nights, ( yes the Mariners are doing well in the PPM, but KIRO-AM the rest of the day is not) Christmas music during December affects numbers. (want to bet KRWM does well and they have company playing Christmas music this year) We finally have a two month rolling average and will have a three month that we can really use in 30 days. Just like most other markets things seem fairly stable in the PPM and month to month there are not many changes. Weekly things can move around a bit. Here are your winners on a two book April and May, which will join June and be released as currency. Numbers are not attached, per arbitron guidelines. What is surprising is the GRP difference between first and fifth is about 50%. The gap is surprising and has shown up in other PPM markets.

25-54 Adults
KPLZ
KJAQ
KJR
KCMS
KRWM

25-54 Men
KJAQ
KISW
KJR-FM

25-54 Women
KPLZ
KRWM
KCMS

Your morning winners in prime demo 25-54 are KPLZ, KJAQ, KUOW, KJR and KCMS on the two month book. The women look the same as the diary did in Winter, only KPLZ is much stronger. The men look the same, except KJAQ is much stronger and has replaced KZOK. Ironic since they are owned by the same company. 18-34 KBKS has replaced KUBE, ironic since they are also owned by the same company. The Country battle is a dead heat in a multiple tie for eigth place. The biggest shock is the weakness of KIRO-FM and KIRO-AM. The stations on a two book are not even top 20 in key demos. KUOW is by far the strongest of the spoken word stations. Now that we have two books in a pattern is developing that is much more stable that under the diary system. Using a two or three book average is typically how stations will be sold.

 

[mammaknowsbest]

blah blah blah. Look at the core female demo of 25-44 and you will see real players up and coming. MOVIN is number four and KISS is number two. KUBE is gone and KRWM has no one under 45. Pleaassseee. At night MOVIN is number one and KISS is number two. I was ya ya excited for the new stations in town like JACK, WOLF and MOVIN. All do better in PPM than in the diary. Mamma was worried when someone sent April numbers, but May shows change is real and the PPM is the ya ya. WARM has slipped, KUBE is gone, KMPS is gone, KZOK is dying and STAR is next to fall with their old morning show. The real story is that new stations get a better chance when men aren't running the show by filling out their wives diaries. It is ya ya fair and good stations will survive and grow in this new world of PPM. Mammaknowsbest.

 

[djdan]

KQMV did much better in May and is clearly beating KUBE. 7-midnight KQMV is in fact number one 25-44 and in the top five overall in that female demographic. Morning drive and mid-days the station still is a work in progress. I would not however say that "WARM has slipped." They have the highest cume in the market and are just out of the top 5 in May 25-54. There are many "old" stations that perform quite well including KJR-FM, the "old" shows on KPLZ. Even KZOK still has solid numbers, though not what they were in the diary. I assume you are just poking fun at those who make fun of KQMV and I agree the station does deserve some respect when compared to KUBE and KBKS in their competitive set. It is well ahead of KUBE in many cells.

However I would not call KQMV a "top tier station "in Seattle in the PPM, nor would I call WOLF a "top tier station." KJAQ is definitely one of the winners. You are 1/3 right.

 

[Steenman]

How long does a person that agrees to wear a people meter wear it for? In the case of the TV set top boxes and LPM it was for almost year (they adjusted this as it went along). Get a clue here, if the current sample consists of office workers, guess which group of stations are going to get good rating month after month after month UNTIL THE SAMPLE POPULATION CHANGES. When the sample population changes to say 'construction workers' can you guess which stations will then get all the ratings? You need to let ARB work out the sampling and give it time before you jump to conclusions because if the switch that TV went thought last year is any indication, EARLY RESULTS WON'T BE THE WHOLE STORY. It's not that they aren't right, it's just that they only represent the population wearing the devices at that time.

 

[RadioRon]

In answer to Steenman. The ARB folks tell us that there's an 8-9% turnover in the PPM panel each month. The maximum that anyone can be in the panel is 24 months, and the average time someone is in the panel is 18 months.

 

[radioprofessor]

Steenman's concerns are more about the diary than the PPM in my humble view. The diary would oversample specific groups and zipcodes which made each month an adventure and not a good one. You can argue the PPM minority cell-phone issues, but that really doesn't apply much in Seattle, in my humble opinion. Based on my knowledge of Houston and Philadelphia data there is little variation at the top of the ratings once the first couple of months are in. Arbitron's methodology is set and the cell-phone sample was added in May and did little to change Seattle numbers. There has been 10% turnover each month around the country, yet rating remain fairly stable. Again, stability is the selling point of the PPM parameter. It does not hit "constructions workers" or "office workers." like the diary did because zip codes and demos are balanced and not wieghted as in the diary. I remember when I first started reading PPM data, I kept expecting things to change as the did in the diary days. They don't. In LA, AMP radio is attacking KISS and in the first month there was a wobble, but KISS is now back in it's original position, while AMP has settled in as well. Not much changes. I can tell you that in summer you will see some variation as people take vacations and listeneing habits change with lack of school. You will also see a seasonal shift around Christmas due to similar vacations and Christmas music. Other than that you won't see change like you did in the diary parameter.

 

[radioprofessor]

I will amend my earlier post to say that if stations combo or create new formats do start you will see change in that individual station. I noticed KOMO got an FM simulcast partner in May. The FM got a half share which may seem insignificant but when added to KOMO AM it gives KOMO a two to one advantage over KIRO FM as a standalone. An interesting parameter. KCBS saw similar growth in San Francisco, so there are things you can do to increase your share in the PPM. The key point here is you need to "do things" like change content or add an FM partner. If you wait for the PPM to change without being pro-active, as was the case in diary days, you will wait a long time. Keep in mind the change in KIRO-FM dropped them from 19th to 22nd 25-54 and the KOMO combo rose from 18th to 12th. But in the middle of the pack that is real movement in a PPM parameter driven by adding an FM simulcast. My original comments do still stand the test of scrutiny since the top five market leaders remain unchanged and well ahead of the pack, similar to all other PPM markets in the key 25-54 demographic.

 

[talkerdjdude]

I think it was DJDan who said somewhere on this board that the real loser with the PPM is Bonneville. None of their stations are doing well, whereas the other radio companies have at least one station in the building that's got strong ratings.

KIRO has been in pitiful shape for years, temporarily boosted by the AM/FM simulcast, but too stupid to realize they had a good thing going. Now they have a fragmented audience, a lame sports station that has the Mariners as its only salvation, a dull, dull, dull FM product with a robotic morning team and only one maybe two decent talk shows. The advantage goes to KOMO which has been consistent, on the boring side too, but consistency wins in radio.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Seems KIRO had it going with the AM/FM simulcast then shot themselves in the foot by splitting it up :-\
KOMO must have seen what worked added the FM and beat Bonneville over the head with their own dang idea. ouch :-X

 

[equalinercard]

Actually, we don't know if KIRO "had it going" with the AM-FM simulcast.

We only know that they had it going with the simucast in the diary system. The splitting was deliberately timed to coincide with the launch of PPM.

Why Bonneville chose to give up on KBSG is the big mystery. Stations like KBSG have done very well under PPM.

Why Bonneville chose to dump the heritage format on a blowtorch AM is another, bigger mystery.

Why the CEO and Market Manager still have jobs is the biggest mystery. But, most likely, some middle level manager...oh, say...a PD...will take a bullet for this blockbuster blunder.

 

[TVradioguru]

Since PPM began in Seattle, there is only ONE AM station in the top 20, target demo. The term AM blowtorch is pretty irrelevant these days don't you think?

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

... But, most likely, some middle level manager...oh, say...a PD...will take a bullet for this blockbuster blunder.

Shades of years before when KIRO-AM/FM (along with TV counterpart) went to "News out of the Box".
Everyone in the place was heralding what a great concept it was...and as the publicity began to tank, suddenly all the people who originally wanted "credit" for the idea were distancing themselves. They aired ... and fired ... news director Andy Ludlum for the "flaw". Of all the people involved, he was only one who actually was focused on the JOURNALISM aspects of the experiment. Amazing...

 

[Bongwater]

... But, most likely, some middle level manager...oh, say...a PD...will take a bullet for this blockbuster blunder.

Shades of years before when KIRO-AM/FM (along with TV counterpart) went to "News out of the Box".
Everyone in the place was heralding what a great concept it was...and as the publicity began to tank, suddenly all the people who originally wanted "credit" for the idea were distancing themselves. They aired ... and fired ... news director Andy Ludlum for the "flaw". Of all the people involved, he was only one who actually was focused on the JOURNALISM aspects of the experiment. Amazing...

Look, when this idea of moving KIRO to FM came around, I warned everybody here of the past with KIRO-FM 100.7, circa 1992-93. As usual, I was mocked and ridiculed. Or told THIS time it WILL work. So what the hell. I shut up and let time speak for itself......

Time has spoken.....

(And I was dead right about KUBE.....)