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Seeing how all these radio company stock prices are tanking how’s that gonna effect Seattle radio stations?
- Thread starter Cobra14
- Start date
Stock price has little to do with day to day station operations. What does affect them is the amount of radio ad dollars in each market and where, since the year 2000, radio revenues are (inflation adjusted) off about two-thirds.
Shareholders do not vote on station formats or music selection. Or any day to day decisions.
I owned a few shares in several radio companies a couple years ago and can confirm what David says about shareholder decisions. That being said though, I guess a CEO could in theory at least be voted out of office by a company's shareholders. I think the question that's really being asked here has to do with what's going on in Memphis right now. All that started with the sale of one license, which is being done to try and help Audacy's stock price return to $1 per share to be in compliance with NYSE rules. I think the question is could we see a similar domino effect in Seattle? My gut feeling is no, but then again, I never would have thought Audacy would eliminate the FM100 brand from Memphis if it's the #1 biller in the market. That decision still doesn't make sense to me. In my mind, why would you double down on a brand that until this point hasn't even been able to beat its competition to the point of eliminating a predictably strong revenue generator? To me the logical move would have been for Audacy to either sell the Wolf IP to Cumulus for one of that company's signals or eliminate it entirely. Actually now that I think about it, Cumulus wouldn't have been able to take the Wolf brand being as they own the competition.
It usually happens by the board of directors. That's what happened to Lew Dickey. But in the case of Audacy. the CEO is a major stockholder, so it's really in his personal interest to fix things.
Regarding the scope of shareholder votes:
First, for a vote a motion has to be placed before the BoD and then they have to feel motivated to vote on and agree to add an item to the annual meeting agenda. And that happens, as the word "annual" would suggest, once a year.
A company with hundreds of stations is not going to vote on the format of one station or even the sale of one station or market. The shareholders of Kellog are not going to vote on reducing the sugar content on Frosted Flakes, either.
iPhones now come in yellow. Does anyone think the shareholders voted on whether to add a new color or decided on which shade of yellow to use?
Further, such "administrative" tasks as selling a station management deems unproductive or a market they feel does not have a big enough cluster to be viable is the sort of thing that falls under management authority and responsibility. But if it is a company wide adjustment, the strategy might be discussed before the BoD in a regular meeting and, if there is dissent, called to a vote.
First, for a vote a motion has to be placed before the BoD and then they have to feel motivated to vote on and agree to add an item to the annual meeting agenda. And that happens, as the word "annual" would suggest, once a year.
A company with hundreds of stations is not going to vote on the format of one station or even the sale of one station or market. The shareholders of Kellog are not going to vote on reducing the sugar content on Frosted Flakes, either.
iPhones now come in yellow. Does anyone think the shareholders voted on whether to add a new color or decided on which shade of yellow to use?
Further, such "administrative" tasks as selling a station management deems unproductive or a market they feel does not have a big enough cluster to be viable is the sort of thing that falls under management authority and responsibility. But if it is a company wide adjustment, the strategy might be discussed before the BoD in a regular meeting and, if there is dissent, called to a vote.
I think the question, though extremely badly worded, is could a Memphis scenario be on its way to Seattle? If the answer is yes, it will, like Memphis, be triggered by Audacy. Usually we see signs of something coming a few months before it actually happens, and we're not seeing anything with any of the other companies in Seattle right now. Even if iHeart decided they wanted to sell a station that triggers a market-wide shuffle, I'd be willing to bet that it's going to be in one of their smaller markets, not Seattle. That company seems to be relatively healthy, having just come out of bankruptcy, so I wouldn't expect drastic moves by them. I would think stock price would have a little to do with whether a company sells a station, but that decision isn't going to be made by shareholders, and there are likely going to be many more factors in whether or not a station is sold than the company's stock price.
Two very different markets. Seattle is market #12. Memphis is #51. It appears Audacy is looking to exit markets under 50.
I believe Memphis, Wichita, and Chattanooga could probably be had IF there was someone with cash looking to buy this year.
And that's a great point. There are few if any major M&A radio deals anymore, let alone for 50+ markets, because there is little upside to being in those markets. The only one with cash that's buying, is EMF.
PAIN - RIF - Margins are being eaten away. Shareholders want ROI not declining profits. Expect some top heavy Sr. Mgt to be let go to help with "bloated top heavy" over paid SVPs and regionals - The ONLY way to look profitable it to CUT expenses when you can't generate revenue. BUT if you listen to POTUS - Debt and Budget don't go hand in so keep at it and see how well it ends.
Are you hearing things that the public trades aren't reporting? I personally don't know what Audacy will do next. My friend and I both believe nothing is off the table, though selling out of smaller markets makes sense. If they can only sell one though, why eliminate your most successful brand? It is my understanding that WTSS is #2 in revenue behind only sister news/talker WBEN in Buffalo, and as I said, WMC-FM is #1 in revenue in Memphis. From the EMF side, this deal makes a lot of sense, as they get one of the two grandfathered flamethrowers in Buffalo and a slightly larger signal in Memphis, but to me this makes the remaining Audacy clusters in both markets look a lot weaker. In Buffalo, they have a CHR that most of the WTSS audience could easily go to, but I can't see how the audience gained will translate into much more revenue for 98.5. In Memphis, this makes even less sense as while they have 104.5 in the building, FM100 runs so hot that I would think most of the audience would move to the newly upgraded Kiss 102.7 rather than moving to 104.5. It's true some of them may stick around for the country format, but again, this seems like a huge gamble.
Lance has been saying there are other shoes to drop, without being specific. The posters in Buffalo suspect that WTSS will end up on another frequency. There may be more moves in Memphis. Some suggested a possible trade between Cumulus and Audacy.
I have heard rumblings that there is more to come. Nothing to suggest that Audacy is going to start selling Top 50 markets, but below that line, yes. I also believe that they would prefer to sell entire clusters and not sell them 1 station at a time. It just worked out that way this time.
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Yep, pretty much the only onesy-twosy deals going lately are either individual FM station swaps between markets, or jettisoning derelict AM stations to non-profits for pennies on the dollar.
I've kind of had a feeling Cumulus and Audacy would do some swapping as well.
MORE PAIN - AUDACY has reported Q1 2023 net revenue of $259.6 million, down 4% from Q3 2021's $275.2m. Spot revenue was down 9% to $159.3m, while digital revenue was down 1.9% from $58.0m last year to $56.9m.
I think if you compared other media companies, both traditional and new, that you'll see very similar percentage results.
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