Shapes of Things to Come

[SirRoxalot]

While most of the stations in town are trying to figure out what to do with their HD2 channels, and using seasonal streaming in an attempt to dilute audiences for other stations, there's some real change on the horizon.

"Taylor on Radio Info" had an interesting story buried several items down the list this morning. CBS honchos Dan Mason, CBS Corporate interactive chief David Goodman, and sales weasel Michael Weiss have been touting the company's foray into netcasting. They've made some big moves, and have some big plans:

"That includes the AOL Radio deal that makes the streaming CBS stations
easily available to the world, and the new online player that’s due in just a couple of weeks.
Goodman enthusiastically previews that one and says users can mash together existing stations, add their
own content, or create custom playlists by moving favorite artists closer to the center of a circle or banishing
them altogether."

Looks like they're going after the "on-demand" generation. As WiMax, cell phone air cards, and other wireless Internet connectivity schemes roll out, broadcast radio may find itself at a disadvantage competing with interactive techologies served up via the Internet. Wi-Fi radios are now available, generally cheaper than HD radios, with a LOT more channels to choose from.

One thing's for sure. Being a jukebox rolling the same tired songs over and over with little or no local content ain't gonna cut it.

 

[JohnGault]

I would agree with all of that and add that being a music station that is not focused on personality, whether local or not, is a quick road to nowhere. How many voice tracked card readers have replaced what used to be 24/7 staffed great radio stations?

I have a WiFi Squeezebox at home, and Pandora on my phone, and spent yesterday playing with apple's "Genius" software for my Ipod. If you haven't checked that out, do so.

Bottom line is that commercial free music is fast becoming amazingly sophisticated, easy, and oh yeah, FREE of COMMERCIALS.

Unique local, regional, and national talent are the future. As much as we would prefer the emphasis on local, that's exactly what the GENIUSES who run our industry are cutting. Which local stations have a website that isn't a corporate template? How much staff and what kind of budget to develop this medium locally?

If you ask me, they have mostly given up on local and are in shrink mode.

 

[cee]

I have a WiFi Squeezebox at home, and Pandora on my phone, and spent yesterday playing with apple's "Genius" software for my Ipod. If you haven't checked that out, do so.

Bottom line is that commercial free music is fast becoming amazingly sophisticated, easy, and oh yeah, FREE of COMMERCIALS.

Music radio is more and more becoming the choice of people who don't have WiFi, Pandora and all these other new technolgies I can't keep up on. I don't have any of that yet, but like a lot of people, I may within the next couple years. However, check out the next generation of consumers - drive by a high school when the kids are getting out in the afternoon --- there's kids listening to their wifi's everywhere you look....

We all know how radio stations pretty much abandon their faithful listeners when they reach a certain age(as we baby boomers are now finding out, just like our parents before us) -- what happens when today's teens/very young adults reach prime demo target age? Radio will want them - but will they want radio?

 

[Radknowski]

We all know how radio stations pretty much abandon their faithful listeners when they reach a certain age(as we baby boomers are now finding out, just like our parents before us) -- what happens when today's teens/very young adults reach prime demo target age? Radio will want them - but will they want radio?

Not likely, really. Ten years from now, radio will be there, waiting like the third string quarterback or a tenth round draft pick. It'll be the last resort.

Unique local, regional, and national talent are the future. As much as we would prefer the emphasis on local, that's exactly what the GENIUSES who run our industry are cutting. Which local stations have a website that isn't a corporate template? How much staff and what kind of budget to develop this medium locally? If you ask me, they have mostly given up on local and are in shrink mode.

And most personalities are tightly shrink-wrapped. In Buffalo, there are really only a few FMs that have any real identity where the music and the personalities are closely associated: 97 Rock and WYRK, definitely. Maybe WNED-FM and WBFO with its classical, blues and jazz hosts respectively. Everybody else is pfffffttt.

Looks like they're going after the "on-demand" generation. As WiMax, cell phone air cards, and other wireless Internet connectivity schemes roll out, broadcast radio may find itself at a disadvantage competing with interactive techologies served up via the Internet. Wi-Fi radios are now available, generally cheaper than HD radios, with a LOT more channels to choose from. One thing's for sure. Being a jukebox rolling the same tired songs over and over with little or no local content ain't gonna cut it.

A few weeks ago, one of my buds, Eddie The Tweaker, walks into the paint shop and says "check out my ride." I open the car door and there's some fine AAA type tunage pouring out of the speakers. "What's this, XM? Sirius? Toronto FM?" I ask. "Negative, bro, it's my cell phone, lined into my car stereo. I've been drivin' around listening to it from Batavia to Niagara Falls. It hasn't dropped out once!" It was a 128k stream that sounded clean and crisp. He got it on a 30 day free trial. Sure, it's subscription based and if you wanted it, you'd have to pay for it, but all I could think of was "buh bye XM-Sirius." No wonder their stock price is in the toilet.

 

[MCMagicCracker]

I've been watching corporate radio regionalize as long as I've been on the radio.  Notice how big companies like Cox have been accumulating HUGE names and putting them on multiple stations?  Expect more of that.  Stocks are in the tank, but watch them steadily climb back to their real value when the word that listenership is INCREASING again gets out.  There's one company that went private while the price was low, and the rumblings are that others are following.  CBS and Clear Channel are in the perfect position to launch their national HD stations and get them up to par for all the brand new, new fuel technology vehicles with HD radios standard and optional satellite connectivity that are going to become commonplace in the next four years.  (End of the next presidental administration should coincide with the end of the GREAT DEPRESSION we're in right now; they're just whispering that it's not a typical recession for the moment, in January they'll have to admit it.)

So while everyone has been obsessing over the on-demand in-pocket technology that everyone USED to be able to afford, the FREE versions have been developing quietly.  FM radio will STILL be free, there will just be as many as TWO MORE stations at every odd point on the dial and it will sound just as good as your car stereo, quality-wise.  If you're a channel-flipper, you'll have that many more reasons NOT to turn off the radio.

Consider that when the power goes out for a week, the first thing you will always do is TURN ON YOUR BATTERY-POWERED RADIO to find out what's happening.  People will always have a need for free entertainment and news.  There's a resurgence in local ownership happening already, and they realize how valuable those AM and FM sticks that are suddenly on fire-sale really are. 

If new owners would spend the other half of the money they would have paid for those sticks in years past on bringing their equipment into the 21st century, they will have their pick of syndicated HD side channels to put on the air in each local market!  Or if they have the resources, they could bring "real radio" back to the digital airwaves.  The analog channel will make the money, the digital side channels will be the new place to develop talent and play music that you can't get anywhere else. 

 

[Element9]

No crystal ball, no radio savant here.1

It's going to take more than an increase of listeners to get broadcast-communications share prices out of the toilet. I don't see this happening soon.1 PPM alone is creating issues, although it is re-shaping the face of radio from a TSL medium to a Cume medium. So "reach," if PPM technology can be trusted and it can pass muster with the ratings council which it has not yet, will be radio's closest friend.

The debt ratios for many companies are out of wack. P/E is nowhere near favorable for some major operators. Bulls will insist now is the time to buy, but there are better sectors and companies to put your money.

Where are these alledged local groups going to get the financing required to buy the major operators' spin-offs? Clear Channel, CBS, Emmis and Citadel won't be giving away these small market clusters, that's for damn sure.

Right now, banks and financials are in the toilet and next week it's going to get far worse if and when Lehman Brothers goes belly-up.1 These are not good times for the financial sector.

As I'm writing this, a commercial is running on CNN for Rhapsody on Verizon Wireless. But I digress.

As to revenue, national is down, local is flat if not down, except for medium to small markets which outperformed large markets. Score one for the local sales guys and women! Small consolation if you're selling for a company that owns stations in Buffalo but also has clusters in NYC, LA and Chicago. Automotive is down and being re-evaluated every month. What are you and I buying these days? Durables, such as household goods, refrigerators, ovens-stoves and the like, are flat.

Yes, terrestrial radio is "free" and this is its one constant and biggest selling point. Where do listeners go when the spit hits the fan and the power goes out? News-talk AM, primarily stations such as WHAM and WBEN. Sorry NPR affiliates, you don't get the surge in these cases. The few FM stations that have credible news sources, news people and strong morning teams may retain listeners when the power is out, but for the most part, the News-Talk stations get the surge.

One place that listeners DON'T go is Jack or any of the fluffernutter AC stations.

Sure, "at work" radio is a great TSL builder, but it does nothing for building cume, at least as music stations are presently formatted. Lately, I've noticed that some Buffalo FM's have added news capsules to "keep listeners in touch," but what purpose does this serve if the station cannot locally support that news minute when serious local or national news occurs? Contemplate... 9-11, Space Shuttle Tragedy or major Western New York blizzard. "Seven to 12 inches of new snow expected this afternoon, now here's another at-work ten in a row." Buh-bye, let's see what WHAM or WBEN have to offer. Last winter, I recall hearing an afternoon drive guy do a weather forecast and promote the morning show as "having everything you'll need to start the day tomorrow morning" when seven inches of snow was forecast. Trust me, if seven inches of snow is going to be in my driveway tomorrow morning (as it turned out it was closer to four inches of snow) I'm starting my day with the local TV station which offers closings and cancellations in the crawl and WHAM or WBEN.

Maybe the first lesson to be learned by operators large and small is to hire a competent NEWS DEPARTMENT for their FM clusters.1 Would listeners tune to WJYE when they know Star, its direct in-format competitor, offers local news (because it's WBEN's clustermate)? Contemplate...

Don't expect operators to latch on to this revolutionary idea[/sarcasm] to regain listeners by hiring a local news department any time soon. Why? Because it costs money. It's easier to hire a laugh chick or sports stud to double as news person. It's also short sighted, but nobody ever accused today's broadcasting suits of being far sighted. This is one of the many reasons terrestrial radio is in the mess it's in.

This post could go on for at least three more 'graphs, but I fear it was too long three paragraphs ago. Sorry. Your turn.

-9-

 

[SirRoxalot]

"Free"?

Quite simply, widespread wireless Internet access will make thousands of "free" radio stations available to listeners. As the quote from CBS indicated, personalized content will be widely available. That trumps "free" broadcast radio.

I'm a long ways from 30, but I'll likely be on board with wide-area wireless when it becomes fast enough and cheap enough. Providers will be throwing in music services as a bonus, making it easy to listen to music, and download it for a nominal fee if you want to build your own library. Broadcast radio as we know it is likely to have a real challenge on their hands, and there's no indication that most groups are prepared to fend off that challenge by offering content that won't be available elsewhere.

Once upon a time, radio was a trendsetter and taste-maker. Those days are long gone by. Most stations have NOTHING to offer that isn't readily available elsewhere. The cost of running an on-line radio station is much lower than the cost of maintaining a broadcast facility. Sooner or later, radio as we know it will morph into something very different from what we have today.

BTW, it's only a matter of time before newspapers grow their on-line component into some kind of audio/video presentation as a matter of survival.

 

[Bob1370]

"Quite simply, widespread wireless Internet access will make thousands of "free" radio stations available to listeners. As the quote from CBS indicated, personalized content will be widely available. That trumps "free" broadcast radio."

How many people have either the time, or the equipment, to metaprogram their online hookups that way? And how many people have the wherewithal to offer programming content in a consistent, ongoing way?

We're talking about a niche medium at best, with nowhere near the reach of conventional radio and no clear path to a revenue stream to keep it going. The ad sales pathway of commercial radio, and the subscription/membership path of noncomm radio, won't be a realistic option because the listener base for each such outlet will be too small compared to conventional broadcasting's reach.

What conventional radio has to do in order to survive, thrive and take advantage of the eventual upturn in retail business a year or two down the road when the recession ends, is simply do what it does best--offer entertainment and information at the touch of a button--and do a better-quality job of it overall than it's been doing lately. Stations that are trying to program quality content are doing well now, even in these tough times.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Time Has Come Today?

Bob, you're either not reading, or not understanding what you're seeing.

Imagine a player will allow you to select the artists that you like a lot, and exclude the artists that you can't stand. No "metaprogramming" there. It will search hundreds or thousands of streams to find a song that fits your profile. I'm sure that there will be rules in the programming for repetition of both artists and songs. Set it up once, and now your player goes and gets the music that you like. Songs will be buffered into memory so they don't have to play in real time. It's likely that mini-commercials will be inserted at pre-determined intervals, and I'm sure that you won't hear clusters of :60s.

The revenue stream will come from subscription fees. A piece of the Internet access fee - which will drop in price as capacity increases and the number of subscribers increases - will go to the music service providers. Think of the cable TV model. Each of the cable programming providers negotiates a compensation rate based on the number of viewers. Since the players will be able to instantly send data back to the provider, each service could be compensated based on usage. Commercial content would be bonus revenue for the content providers.

Car manufacturers are already planning to install wireless Internet access. It's of value to them for collecting data from the car, and reminding you to take it in for service. There are also dozens or hundreds of other services that they can offer via the Internet. Forget in-car DVD players. How about in-car streaming HD video for the kids? CBS has thrown in its lot with AOL, which means that Google, Microsoft, and others with very deep pockets are likely to jump into that market with their own version. I'm sure that Clear Channel, Citadel, Entercom, and other are looking for partners in order to compete with the CBS delivery system. It will hardly be a niche medium - especially for younger people who expect on-demand delivery.

Reach is likely to be as great as radio in areas with high population concentrations (i.e. "medium & large markets"). You can already have Rhapsody and other services deliver music anywhere that your cell phone works. Buffering allows it to work better than your cell phone. The bonus for broadcasters may be the eventual elimination of large towers and/or electricity-eating transmitters. The OTA stations that are left will be the content providers for streaming. Successful stations will survive. Bottom-feeders and "flankers" will fail to survive.

The only place where wireless Internet isn't likely to have the "reach of conventional radio" is in lightly-populated rural areas. Anybody successfully programming radio in lightly-populated rural areas? As the usage of conventional radio dies (along with the older population), reallocation of bandwidth will make service in even those areas likely.

We do agree that quality content, targeted toward a particular geographic area will be key to survival for broadcasting companies. I expect that any player will mimic current radios with push-buttons or pre-sets. You'll be able to put individual station streams on pre-set, with the "superstation" button as an option when nobody's playing what you want to hear.

 

[Bob1370]

"Bob, you're either not reading, or not understanding what you're seeing.

Imagine a player will allow you to select the artists that you like a lot, and exclude the artists that you can't stand. No "metaprogramming" there. It will search hundreds or thousands of streams to find a song that fits your profile. I'm sure that there will be rules in the programming for repetition of both artists and songs. Set it up once, and now your player goes and gets the music that you like. Songs will be buffered into memory so they don't have to play in real time. It's likely that mini-commercials will be inserted at pre-determined intervals, and I'm sure that you won't hear clusters of :60s."

That still requires both an extra additional up-front hardware investment and some up-front programming effort that conventional radio doesn't ask of you. And even if you're not doing all your own programming, you're depending on, perhaps not a human programmer, but some programming algorithm that you didn't set yourself--so there goes much or most of the personal-tailoring that self directed metaprogramming allows you. So we're essentially back to a conventional radio paradigm, IMHO, only without the extra value-added of a live human voice and human personality to present it all.

Guess I'm not convinced...and especially not convinced that a well programmed conventional station can't outdo it for listener appeal.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Welcome to Tomorrowland

That still requires both an extra additional up-front hardware investment and some up-front programming effort that conventional radio doesn't ask of you. And even if you're not doing all your own programming, you're depending on, perhaps not a human programmer, but some programming algorithm that you didn't set yourself--so there goes much or most of the personal-tailoring that self directed metaprogramming allows you. So we're essentially back to a conventional radio paradigm, IMHO, only without the extra value-added of a live human voice and human personality to present it all.

I'm beginning to think that you're not very familiar with "new media", or the people that use it. Cars already have jacks for MP3 players, Chrysler will be offering wi-fi Internet access on its cars starting with the 2009 models. "We want to make the radio itself a WiFi port," according to Frank Klegon, Chrysler's product development chief.

So, at least in Chrysler vehicles, there will be no up-front hardware investment. Expect other manufacturers to follow ASAP. Ticking off some check boxes ONCE when you buy your new car to eliminate music genres, and ticking off check boxes of artists that you don't like in a particular genre hardly seem onerous. While you're at it, fill in the box that says "Allow the same song to be repeated every ___ hours". You get to set the programming algorithm yourself instead of having it set by a PD caught between a consultant, corporate programmer, and a handful of research that has enough holes in it to be suspect at best.

Live human voices and personalities may still deliver local information and entertainment, but they'll be pitted against "smart" juke-boxes and national talent. Only the strong will survive. You also won't need an FCC license to play the game - and listeners will have the option of blocking content that they find objectionable.

There will be new opportunities, and new challenges. My guess is that 20 years from now, radio as we know it won't exist because digital use of the limited electromagnetic spectrum is much more efficient than analog, and the demand will be there for additional communications channels in both directions.

 

[Bob1370]

"You get to set the programming algorithm yourself instead of having it set by a PD caught between a consultant, corporate programmer, and a handful of research that has enough holes in it to be suspect at best."

And that's where I think the hangup to universal popular acceptance lies.

As media fans and early technology adopters, we radio geeks and radio pros have a tendency to think that what we enjoy doing, and regard as an enhancement of our options, will be embraced just as readily by everyone out there in the broad audience we serve. We might be surprised to find out how much LESS interested in the process most of our listeners really are.

I don't think most people, who are busy enough these days just getting by, want to invest even a small amount of extra work in the process of casual access to electronic audio entertainment beyond popping in a cassette or disc. or pushing a button or two on the radio. Having said that, I think conventional radio still has it all over the new media for most people (though not necessarily for us)...IF we invest at least some added effort in making the programming we offer worthwhile.

We may well find added opportunities in programming the new channels that we'll have at our disposal in the digital world, but broadcasters as we know them will still be doing the programming, selling the spots and making the money. Most of the listening will still go to the same 10 or 15 stations in most markets that pull in the bulk of the listeners now, as long as they sharpen up their acts.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Change BANDS? That New-Fangled FM Will NEVER Catch On

I don't think most people, who are busy enough these days just getting by, want to invest even a small amount of extra work in the process of casual access to electronic audio entertainment beyond popping in a cassette or disc. or pushing a button or two on the radio. Having said that, I think conventional radio still has it all over the new media for most people (though not necessarily for us)...IF we invest at least some added effort in making the programming we offer worthwhile.

Bob, I guess you're right. The younger generation - and many of my peers who can no longer be described as "younger" - certainly can't find the time to upload music to an MP3 player, or reload a multi-disc CD player. That's FAR more commitment that will be required by the one-time "fill-in-the-check-box" programming required by the media players that are coming.

I guess we'll just have to wait a few years and see who's right.

 

[Element9]

If people can program and use their cell phones (my 73 year old aunt manages just fine) they'll be able to adapt to the technology that Roxalot describes. Arrow up, down, left right, select, clear. What's so hard about that? Hell, it's easier than finding the damn remote. I better check under the cushons again.