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Shocking statistics

Re: The Times just used the wrong figures...

>
> No, it does not. I rates electronic media, not iPods. It
> rates TV, Cable and any encoded webcsasts and satellite,
> too. Nothing else. It can even rate storecasting.


http://www.arbitron.com/portable_people_meters/home.htm


KL

<a href="http://home.nc.rr.com/gttyson/lastradio.html">The Last Radio Station<a>
 
Re: The Times just used the wrong figures...

> By the way, what are your qualifications to make all these
> blanket (and wrong) statements about ratings, statistics and
> listener behaviour? I have never heard so much wrong data in
> so little time in my whole career.


19 years in the commercial radio and TV arena. I have seen all the things I have described with my own eyes and discussed them with sales and management and programming people. Until this year when the PPM system was introduced, it was generally acknowledged that ratings could be misinterpreted all over the place, but it was the only thing we had. With the PPM system, things will be different.

KL

<a href="http://home.nc.rr.com/gttyson/lastradio.html">The Last Radio Station<a>
 
Re: The Times just used the wrong figures...

> >
> > No, it does not. I rates electronic media, not iPods. It
> > rates TV, Cable and any encoded webcsasts and satellite,
> > too. Nothing else. It can even rate storecasting.
>
>
> http://www.arbitron.com/portable_people_meters/home.htm

The PPM does NOT, repeat, NOT, rate iPods and MP3 devices. To capture data that identifies a "source" the source must "broadcast" and be encoded every few seconds by means of an in-line device the size of a large briefcase.

Of course, like TIVO and other delayed playback TV devices, an encoded signal that is recorded for later playback will register. But it has to have been originally boradcast, such as a recording of a real radio or TV station.

Since I am involved with 7 encoded radio stations and 2 encoded TV stations in the Houston test, and was part of Arbitrons data review panel in the Philly test, I have some idea of what is involved.
 
Re: Totally lacking in evidence and proof = troll posting?

> > By the way, what are your qualifications to make all these
>
> > blanket (and wrong) statements about ratings, statistics
> and
> > listener behaviour? I have never heard so much wrong data
> in
> > so little time in my whole career.
>
>
> 19 years in the commercial radio and TV arena.

Show us some tangible evidence. You have accused Arbitron of being inaccurate, radio and advertisers of being in collusion, radio of exaggerting ratings and lying about them, claimed diaries are mailed to wrong places, etc. Not a smidgen of proof.

> I have seen
> all the things I have described with my own eyes and
> discussed them with sales and management and programming
> people.

Funny, but no one else has ever heard of any of this stuff. sounds like excuses ignorant people use to mask the fact that they have tanked in the ratings.

Bad ratings = Arbitron is inaccurate.
Good ratings = We are brilliant programmers.

> Until this year when the PPM system was introduced,

The PPM was introduced in Philly about 3 years ago. That shows soooooo much about your familiarity with what you profess to be an expert in.

In fact, the PPM was tested in England 5 years ago, and I saw the first working model in Columbia (you said the offices were in NY and LA) 10 years ago.

Are you making this up on the fly?

> it was generally acknowledged that ratings could be
> misinterpreted all over the place, but it was the only thing
> we had.

Ratings are not misinterpreted, There is nothing to interpret. Ratings are data tables.


> With the PPM system, things will be different.

As I said before, the AQH persons and shares were nearly identical to diary shares and AQH persons 3 years ago in Philly, and in the first release from Houston, the same thing has happened. The gains form the PPM are not in accuracy of the existing numbers... it is in immediacy and the ability to measure all electronic media in one system, comparitively. Agencies and advertisers want one system that measures radio, cable, satellite TV and off air tv in one cross-platform system.

Question: you defy commonly accepted facts and practices at every step. Are you actually trolling just for fun to see how far we will engage you in debate?
 
Re: Totally lacking in evidence and proof = troll posting?

> Funny, but no one else has ever heard of any of this stuff.
> sounds like excuses ignorant people use to mask the fact
> that they have tanked in the ratings.

> Question: you defy commonly accepted facts and practices at
> every step. Are you actually trolling just for fun to see
> how far we will engage you in debate?
>


Okay, if you're going to start with the name calling and the officious how-dare-
you-question-me attitude, maybe we should let this thread rest. I know what I saw and heard and I am standing by what I said. Your experiences are obviously different and you're standing by your statements, but that does not make either of us totally right or totally wrong. The misplaced-diary thing, for example, was a big scandal here a few years back. Unfortunately, the eastern NC market is notorious for being at least two years behind the curve in everything. I suspect we'll be using listener diaries for some time to come.

We could debate this until the proverbial cows come home, but at the end of the day we're both on the same side of the fence. I've always looked at these things from a somewhat cynical point of view, but it's because I want to see them work better. That sometimes offends people who have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, but that's their problem. The PPM meter system will go a long way towards minimizing that margin of error so zealously defended elsewhere in this thread.

We actually want the same thing- a better and more exact rating system- so let's shake hands and go back to our neutral corners. Peace, we out.

KL

P.S. When *are* those damn cows coming home? I've heard that expression all my life and the cows aren't here yet.

<a href="http://home.nc.rr.com/gttyson/lastradio.html">The Last Radio Station<a>
 
Re: Please substantiate.

> > Funny, but no one else has ever heard of any of this
> stuff.
> > sounds like excuses ignorant people use to mask the fact
> > that they have tanked in the ratings.
>
> > Question: you defy commonly accepted facts and practices
> at
> > every step. Are you actually trolling just for fun to see
> > how far we will engage you in debate?
> >
>
>
> Okay, if you're going to start with the name calling and the
> officious how-dare-
> you-question-me attitude, maybe we should let this thread
> rest.

There is noting remotely clsoe to name calling in suggesting that a series of posts that attack yet do not substantiate the allegations might be a troll post. A troll post is one which states the absurd, the wrong or the misleading and claims it as fact. So far, all your posts fit this profile.

I thought I was giving you the courtesy of asking you to clarify and substantiate what are, otherwise, outlandish claims.

Since many readers here are not radio professionals, and may not be familiar with how ratings are done and what they are used for. Posting misleading or untrue data harms the understanding of radio.

Heck, if a writer for the New York times confused share with cume, how easy do you think all this arcane and specialized jargon and data is to understand by the layman? And there are many "out in radioland" who enjoy knowing how the different stations stack up, just as we enjoy knowing what song is #1 this week.

Your posts do a disservice to them and to radio.

> I know what I saw and heard and I am standing by what
> I said.

You have not indicate the "when, where and how" of these alleged incidents.

Nobody I know has eaver heard of diaries from the wrong market ending up in-tab or.

Diaries can not be "missent" as diaries are generec, specific only to the week they are used, but not to the market. A combination of controls restricts a diary to the ZIP code where it ws placed, which also controls the market it is tabbed in.

Nobody, including leading group programmers and researchers, has ever heard of any inflation or exaggeration of listening levels... which is impossible in a random probability sample, anyway.

> Your experiences are obviously different and you're
> standing by your statements, but that does not make either
> of us totally right or totally wrong.

Since nobody I polled has ever heard of any of the things you claim, there is no ground for giving you any credibility if you do not produce market, survey and specific occurances. Otherwise, you are posting cheap shots.

Arbitron does make mistakes. Diaries do get into the hands of media employees. Arbitron is very open about how it deals with this. If the mistakes (tabulation, slogan accreditation, ascription, etc) materially afgfects the survey, it is re-issued. I have had two books reissued in the last 6 years (Puerto Rico), and have been responsible for the only reissue of a trend in the last 10 years (San Francisco). What are your creds?

> The misplaced-diary
> thing, for example, was a big scandal here a few years back.
> Unfortunately, the eastern NC market is notorious for being
> at least two years behind the curve in everything. I suspect
> we'll be using listener diaries for some time to come.

PPM will roll out in the top 50 markets over the next 3 to 4 years, contingent on clients paying the roughly 40% additional cost (not a given) and the system passing its test in Houston... where two major broadcast groups are not particpating.

Smaller markets will likely be on the diary for a longer time, if not always.

Tell us, please, what happened in your market, tell us what market it is, and I will verify with Arbitron. One thing is having a sample shortage (compensated by additonal weighting) and another is the chicanery you suggest. So far, you have not triggered anything in the memory of anyone who follows Arbitron closely.
>
> We could debate this until the proverbial cows come home,
> but at the end of the day we're both on the same side of the
> fence. I've always looked at these things from a somewhat
> cynical point of view, but it's because I want to see them
> work better. That sometimes offends people who have a
> vested interest in maintaining the status quo, but that's
> their problem. The PPM meter system will go a long way
> towards minimizing that margin of error so zealously
> defended elsewhere in this thread.

As I said, the PPM will not reduce the margin of error. In fact, since the weekly PPM sample is about 1/3 of the size of the weekly diary sample, the margin of error in the most granular data increases significantly... by about one standard error, in fact. However, since the diary is based on 12 different weekly samples, and the PPM uses a panel, there are other issues that do not make them strictly comparable.

The fact is that the prior PPM testing gave every station nearly exactly the same shares the concurrent diary survey did. PPM does not change things on a 12 week study. It does allwo advertisers to look at all electronic media together and allows greater granularity without reducing reliability... a daily tab would be as accurate as one covering 12 weeks in the PPM method.
>
> We actually want the same thing- a better and more exact
> rating system- so let's shake hands and go back to our
> neutral corners. Peace, we out.

We already have an exact system, using time proven polling techniques. But, as America becomes more mobile (no home phones, for example) it is necessary to make sure future samples will be proportional to the raw population or universe. The PPM is somewhat better. Today, the diary is perfectly acceptable.
 
Re: Totally lacking in evidence and proof = troll posting?

> Okay, if you're going to start with the name calling and the
> officious how-dare-
> you-question-me attitude, maybe we should let this thread
> rest.

I was going to suggest the same thing, Keith, but my justification was your restating your opinion over and over, regardless of the facts presented in reply.

Regardless of what you believe to be true, you are debating someone whose entire professional life is concerned with the ratings process. David understands Arbitron better than anyone on the Radio-Info boards; even with my 30+ years of experience in this business, I learn things from him.

And his answers to you are factually correct, even if you don't like them.

So, if you don't want to -- as you suggest -- go to neutral corners, I'll solve the problem completely by closing the thread. Your choice.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: Totally lacking in evidence and proof = troll posting?

>
> Regardless of what you believe to be true, you are debating
> someone whose entire professional life is concerned with the
> ratings process. David understands Arbitron better than
> anyone on the Radio-Info boards; even with my 30+ years of
> experience in this business, I learn things from him.
>
> And his answers to you are factually correct, even if you
> don't like them.

I never said they weren't. He spoke what he believed to be the truth; so did I. I don't understand why we're arguing the point since we both agree the ratings system is a necessary evil that could stand a little improvement along with a lot of other things. Those improvements are coming online even as we speak. Let's give them more field time and see what happens. I'm sure we will have more observations and opinions, possibly even different ones, when the PPM system is rolled out nationwide. Remember when the PeopleMeter for TV came out? The system greatly reduced their margin of sampling error, and as a result a whole lot of figures got revised, causing much consternation in the industry.
>
> So, if you don't want to -- as you suggest -- go to neutral
> corners, I'll solve the problem completely by closing the
> thread. Your choice.

I'm there. I repeat: Peace, we out.

KL

<a href="http://home.nc.rr.com/gttyson/lastradio.html">The Last Radio Station<a>



>
 
Re: Totally lacking in evidence and proof = troll posting?

> >
> > Regardless of what you believe to be true, you are
> debating
> > someone whose entire professional life is concerned with
> the
> > ratings process. David understands Arbitron better than
> > anyone on the Radio-Info boards; even with my 30+ years of
>
> > experience in this business, I learn things from him.
> >
> > And his answers to you are factually correct, even if you
> > don't like them.
>
> I never said they weren't. He spoke what he believed to be
> the truth; so did I. I don't understand why we're arguing
> the point since we both agree the ratings system is a
> necessary evil that could stand a little improvement along
> with a lot of other things. Those improvements are coming
> online even as we speak. Let's give them more field time and
> see what happens. I'm sure we will have more observations
> and opinions, possibly even different ones, when the PPM
> system is rolled out nationwide. Remember when the
> PeopleMeter for TV came out? The system greatly reduced
> their margin of sampling error, and as a result a whole lot
> of figures got revised, causing much consternation in the
> industry.

Margin of error is not determined by methodology. The PPM and the Nielsen meter do not reduce margin of error. Increasing sample size does that. The PPM will reduce, not increase the sample size.

Sampling error means that the sample is not perfect. The current radio samples are as good as the proposed PPM samples.

The PPM does not solve or improve margins of error or sample error. It achieves other key goals, but, with a SMALLER sample, it does not change the margin of error.
 
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