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SIRIUS(((XM))) PREPARES FOR POSSIBLE BANKRUPTCY

Yup Mel K. goofed up this one. First he mismanages Infinity/CBS/Shadow Broadcast/Westwood 1, then he fought for the merge. Merges mean less jobs, fallen standards of quality, and then listeners seek something else. Mel K. ia boy genius for failure. Maybe at&t's satellite radio will come on soon.
 
Anybody who didn't see this coming has their head in the sand. Neither company has ever had a profitable quarter and in the midst of losing hundreds of millions of dollars a year, Mel in his infinite wisdom doles out a half-billion dollar contract to Howard Stern. That's called putting all your eggs in one basket.

Chapter 11 could actually be the death knell for them if they're allowed to void Stern's contract and he jumps ship. If EchoStar doesn't buy them a Chapter 7 filing wouldn't surprise me. SiriusXM has $1 billion in debt and a big chunk of it is coming due. Que sera, sera. Mismanagement, arrogance, and avarice at its finest.
 
No, no, no.
Haven't you read the posts right here at RI? Satellite radio is going to KILL terrestrial radio. There's a TON of people here who've posted that very thing, you can't tell me they're all wrong, can you?

I mean, I'd hate to believe that the buisness declaring bankruptcy, the one that has NEVER turned a quarterly profit, isn't going to kill off those radio companies that have been making money for years, if not decades.
 
little1 said:
No, no, no.
Haven't you read the posts right here at RI? Satellite radio is going to KILL terrestrial radio. There's a TON of people here who've posted that very thing, you can't tell me they're all wrong, can you?

I mean, I'd hate to believe that the buisness declaring bankruptcy, the one that has NEVER turned a quarterly profit, isn't going to kill off those radio companies that have been making money for years, if not decades.

I've been saying for at least 5 years that satellite isn't terrestrial's main threat. It's portable music players and internet streaming. So hopefully you're not directing that barb my way.
 
No, no, no.
Haven't you read the posts right here at RI? Satellite radio is going to KILL terrestrial radio. There's a TON of people here who've posted that very thing, you can't tell me they're all wrong, can you?

It sounds more like the financial institutions that bank rolled this express train to failure, are going to kill both. Looks like there will be some bargain radio real estate coming online within the next 12 - 18 months.
 
Terrestrial's main problem is too many commercials & not enough content. Why stick around for 10 minutes of commercials to hear nothing worth hearing?
 
Lancer said:
Terrestrial's main problem is too many commercials & not enough content. Why stick around for 10 minutes of commercials to hear nothing worth hearing?

Terrestrial radio has far more problems than that. Extending the ownership cap, tops the list. Radio's biggest problem, is deregulation. I have never seen an industry of any type, do well after deregulation. This is why we have 6+ minute commercial breaks and lack of quality programming. The only way this problem can be fixed, is to eliminate deregulation. I'm sure we'll hear spun arguments from the CONsultants claiming otherwise.
 
I have posted several times that the demise of terrestrial radio will fall at the hands of satellite, but not sat alone. The combination of sat radio, IPODS and eventually Internet radio will downsize terr radio to the point where it will get fringe ad revenue to the tune of about 30% of what they receive today. There's not much of a chance SiriusXM will vanish. Mel K is excersizing a power play between Echostar & DirecTV. He knows Ergen (Echostar) and the DTV folks have been against each other since the inception of Sat TV. He's hoping for a bidding war, but in reality, Ergen has the upper hand since he owns a chunk of Sirius. It will cost him a lot more if he accepts Sirius going to Chapter 11. It's also a risk for him to lose Sirius to another player if it goes Chap 11. The potential is too strong in the long run for SiriusXM. Auto sales are next to nothing right now, so their ability to expand subs is diminished, but auto sales will eventually recover and they will still offer sat radio that most buyers will get. $12-14 per month is palletable to most people, even today, for the great entertainment SiriusXM brings.
 
Will they keep getting car subscriptions?
Go to their SEC report

http://money.cnn.com/quote/sec/sec.filings.html?symb=SIRI&sequenceid=1&guid=6241096

and you find this nugget:
We also reimburse various automakers for certain costs associated with
satellite radios installed in their vehicles.

They're PAYING the dealers to install Sirius/XM. And that business model has led them to the brink of bankruptcy. Will they be able to continue doing business the same way?

Then there's another little nugget buried in the report. Want to know how they got the NFL? 15 million shares valued at $40,967,000. Rough math, the NFL once had 15m shares worth just under 3 bucks a piece. They know have 15m shares worth 6 CENTS.

If you're the NFL, do you take more worthless shares to redo that deal in a year or 2 when it comes due? Or do you want to see cash up front? And where is a company in bankruptcy going to come up with that kind of cash?

You've posted several times that the demise of terr radio will be at the combo of sat, ipods and internet radio. But isn't it also completely possible that terrestrial, ipods and internet radio could lead to tehdemise of satellite radio?
 
It could but radio listeners are dwindling, satellite subscribers have increased, listeners to internet radio have increased. In short terrestrial radio is a leaking ship and the hole is getting bigger each week.
 
returnofbongo said:
question is, who is the first terrestrial group to go bankrupt?

Toss up between Emmis and Clear Channel. My question is, how many Clear Channel stations are profitable? You would imagine that if it went under, there may be licences handed back. Pity the towns that have olny one operator.
 
greencougar7 said:
It could but radio listeners are dwindling, satellite subscribers have increased, listeners to internet radio have increased. In short terrestrial radio is a leaking ship and the hole is getting bigger each week.

See, from my viewpoint, the hole in satellite and the hole in terrestrial radio are the same size, and either one could sink first. But terrestrial radio has a HUGE advantage. Millions and millions of car radios, boom boxes, stereo systems, etc that have FREE radio already built in, that don't ned to be replaced, retrofitted, or anything else.

Add in that terrestrial radio stations have a business model that, for the most part, is proven and profitable. XM and Sirius, neither has EVER made a quarterly profit. EVER.

That means they're going to have to change their business model. But to what??? At least the radio business model works. And once some of these major corporations get out from under huge debt loads, (and get taken private again most likely) radio can get back to doing what they used to do. Making good money. SiriusXM still need to figure out just how they're going to make money.

Rasie the rate? Good luck with that. Raise rates and you'll lose marginal subscribers.

Sell ads? Good luck with that. Totally destroys your marketing advantage versus terrestrial radio.

And internet radio? Somebody's got to pay those streaming costs. You already have radio companies that don't stream because it's not a revenue stream (yet), it's a cost. Somebody explain to me how those internet radio stations are going to monetize their product to pay even minimal (i.e. streaming) costs. Sell ads? Isn't that the same complaint that people have about terrestrial radio?

It was in the news this week that Pajamas Media, a right-wing blog network put together to sell ads is ceasing operation. Not enough advertising, and not enough payoff to the bloggers. I think that is somewhat analogous to internet radio. How are they going to get advertisers to support them/will they have enough reach where any serious advertiser wants to spend money.

Like I said, somebody has to pay those streaming costs. And if I'm spending hours a day 'programming' my little internet radio station, wont I want to make a little something for my time and trouble? How do they make their money without being what they're revolting against?

When you strip it down, radio is an entertainment medium. But it's also an advertising medium. And look at what the competition for local advertising dollars is going through. Anybody notice that the Dallas Morning News is losing money hand over fist? Laying off staff, sharing coverage with the Star Telegram, cutting bureaus, etc. TV ratings are going down as that audience gets more and more fractured.

And for all of you that think I'm wrong, consider this. KVIL had almost 2 million people listen to them in December. 1 station. 1 market. 2 million people.

Sirius XM had 18 million subscribers for ALL their stations in every market. And nobody knows how many of those people actually listened, and for how long.

Until Sirius XM either start taking ads, or some medium figures out how to beat radio's reach, there is always going to be advertising money out there to support radio stations. Terrestrial radio stations.
 
even a flame on a matchstick eventually goes out..same as terrestrial radio. The same knuckleheads who caused this went over to satellite to spread their virus. satellite just didnt have enough immunity built up.
 
Sirius is nearly profitable. I'd say next quarter it will break even. It took a very short tome to do that. Sirius is the second largest subscription service in the country. Sirius makes over $2 billion a year from subscriptions. Nothing wrong with Sirius' model. It's not terrestrial so advertising is not a big part of what it needs. Raise the rate and you'll lose such a small number of subscribers as not to make a slight dent in the bottom line. A lot of naive posting here with little knowledge of Sirius, the operation, and it's numbers.
 
Full disclosure: I've had XM for 5 years and enjoy it quite a bit.

The problem for terrestrial radio is competition from "other sources." That includes satellite, digital music players (cd's, ipods and other mp3 devices) and internet radio.

The problem for satellite radio has been an enormous start-up cost. It took years to develop the technology, build the satellite, launch them, then go attract millions of people to pay for the service. That's before you pay the first DJ or music licensing fee. When Sirius and XM were battling each other, they paid higher prices for programming to win an advantage over their rival. Now that they are no longer rivals, those programming prices should come down.

The problem is that new car sales have tanked and that's how they get most of their new subscribers. It makes crossing the line to profitability that much harder. It makes filing for bankruptcy seem like a more logical way to get where they want to be. They could cut out costly contracts and restructure other deals to hopefully become profitable. The problem with bankruptcy is the unpredictability of it. If Charlie Ergen's Echostar gets control of Sirius/XM, there's no telling what he'll do with it. That threat means that few people will subscribe to the service while it's in bankruptcy.

Based on the latest information ( http://siriusbuzz.com/sirius-xm-to-avoid-chapter-11.php ) I'm inclined to believe Sirius/XM has figured a way out of this mess without bankruptcy.
 
Directv gave them a bridge loan Friday and will take care of their debt. All is good. As for car sales. Sirius will report a 450k increase in subs this past quarter. Pretty good.
 
Personally I preferred the XM programming over Siriius. Then when the merge came ,the same stupidity that has plagued radio came with it, shortened playlist for one. Why? There are no commercials on a good majority of the channels. The bits from Phlash Phelps were lessened,and no more hometown radio salutes. "KARMA" as in Mel has taken the qulaity down. The announcers on the 70's channel just read a liner. ."Hi I am so and so" and thats it..whooopeee.
Satellite radio was created as a listenable alternative and now it's fast becoming an unwanted clone of a terestrial station. Mel should go to work for a newspaper,his expertise is wrought with failure.
 
Liberty Media to the rescue.

Classic "Wall Street" play. The CEO of Liberty had a running feud with Ergen dating back to the early 90's. Enter Mel Karmizin who employs the classic defense mantra, "My enemy's enemy is my friend". Mel keeps control, get's some new board members, no bankruptcy for Sirius XM, and life is well in Sirius XM land.

Question, could the present CEO's of CBS, Clear Channel, Cumulus et al, have had the business acumen to get such a deal done and save his company?

Now, compare the state of the worlds within Terrestrial radio and Satellite.
To the best of my knowledge, I don't think there is voice tracking on Satellite.

FYI - Remember when Ron Chapman would be on vacation in Florida but still broadcast his show from Florida.
Guess who bought that Florida home?????
Mel Karmizin!!!!

Also, guess who knew Howard Stern was a CASH COW and backed him the hilt??????
Mel Karmizin!!!!!
 
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