SPRING ARBS - ROCHESTER

[scooterodell]

Yes, I know that the other Arb thread has a couple of Rochester posts, but I get lost in there with all of that Buffalo stuff.

So...

WCRR posted a halfway decent book for a rimshot country station going up against WBEE, and WUUF doesn't seem to be the source of their "new" listeners. Might CC have finally found a way to take an edge off the BEE's audience, giving WHAM 1st place?

WFKL seems to be going nowhere (not that it has ever really done anything else). Does it make sense for Stephens to hold on to that format? I would think that it would draw listeners primarily from WRMM, and that seems counter productive.

WCMF, minus Wease, is destined to be an also-ran. Can Entercom hope to ever have more than around a 4 share?

WFXF is already set up with a decent base number; just add Wease and shake thoroughly. Instant success to follow.

WRMM has got to be missing Dee Alexander. Question: Is this cost-cutting move still making sense, as I expect revenues will start to dip with falling numbers? Question 2: Is Dee Alexander, on her own, a talent worth acquiring, or is the success of Infantino and Alexander linked to the duo of Tony & Dee?

WBZA is doing well... is this a Tony & Dee/Wease side effect, or are they genuinely improving their product and attracting more listeners?

WLGZ looks good on the FM, but on the AM it did pull in similar numbers from time to time. Is this just the same product on a different channel, or is this a different station with a different audience? And where will it go from here?

 

[Mark Giardina]

Yes, I know that the other Arb thread has a couple of Rochester posts, but I get lost in there with all of that Buffalo stuff.

So...

WCRR posted a halfway decent book for a rimshot country station going up against WBEE, and WUUF doesn't seem to be the source of their "new" listeners. Might CC have finally found a way to take an edge off the BEE's audience, giving WHAM 1st place?

WFKL seems to be going nowhere (not that it has ever really done anything else). Does it make sense for Stephens to hold on to that format? I would think that it would draw listeners primarily from WRMM, and that seems counter productive.

WCMF, minus Wease, is destined to be an also-ran. Can Entercom hope to ever have more than around a 4 share?

WFXF is already set up with a decent base number; just add Wease and shake thoroughly. Instant success to follow.

WRMM has got to be missing Dee Alexander. Question: Is this cost-cutting move still making sense, as I expect revenues will start to dip with falling numbers? Question 2: Is Dee Alexander, on her own, a talent worth acquiring, or is the success of Infantino and Alexander linked to the duo of Tony & Dee?

WBZA is doing well... is this a Tony & Dee/Wease side effect, or are they genuinely improving their product and attracting more listeners?

WLGZ looks good on the FM, but on the AM it did pull in similar numbers from time to time. Is this just the same product on a different channel, or is this a different station with a different audience? And where will it go from here?

Okay since a Rochester board was started I will just post my own thoughts .....again.

WRMM- I agree with Scooter that the absence of Dee Alexander played a role in that station losing listeners. Why Stephens wanted to break up something that worked is beyond me.

WLGZ- If the station would increase their playlist and do some other "tweaking" I honestly feel they could be a serious competitor against WRMM.

WHAM vs WBEE- That's always going to be a battle for first place, at least for a few more years.

Let's see what the summer book holds. There might be some surprises.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Good move, Scooter. Rochester certainly should have its own ARB thread.

The big moves seemed to be made by WRRM and Buzz. WRRM got spanked, and Buzz seems to have benefitted. I'd love to see the morning numbers to see if Stephen's axing of Dee was the primary cause of WRRMs decline.

'CMF and The Fox were both off about the same amount from last Spring's numbers. 'CMF didn't fall off the table without Wease, but a Classic Rock battle is certainly shaping up. 'CMF cut a ton of salary, but rehired Dave Kane, who may loom larger in the long run if Wease crushes The Break Room. PM drive could be a real battleground before its over. If Wease doesn't crush The Break Room, Entercom could really come out ahead.

 

[ThePickleReport]

WFKL seems to be going nowhere (not that it has ever really done anything else). Does it make sense for Stephens to hold on to that format? I would think that it would draw listeners primarily from WRMM, and that seems counter productive.

Hmmm. If I were Stephens I would have beat Entercom to the punch and put ESPN on WFKL full-time.

 

[The Voice of Reason]

It should come as no surprise that WRMM took a hit in the ratings. Without Dee, Tony is just another voice on the radio. Breaking up that team to save money will in the end cost Stephens Media plenty. Once WRMM goes down the toilet, all Stephens will have is three FM stations that will be minor players in the Rochester market.
I know there has been plenty of speculation about the return of Brother Wease and what impact that will have on WCMF. Of course the die-hard Wease fans will flock to 'The Fox" to hear him, which in turn will improve "Fox's" ratings. But considering that WFXF hardly has an audience, the only direction for that station is up. The question remains what happens to "The Fox" after morning drive ends?
Legends might have increased their numbers in the spring book by moving music to their FM and religion to AM, but despite that the station still is in need of some serious overhauling; starting with its music. The repetition has become so pronounced that even a regular listener can hear the same tunes played constantly on that station. Of course no news means that the age group Legends caters too will be listening to WHAM, WXXI, or WYSL during morning and afternoon drive to hear what's going on in the world. (Yes Virginia some people still believe local news is an important part of radio).
Looking down the road the battle line for listeners will be drawn between Entercom and Clear Channel. Stephens Media and Crawford are just bush-leaguers against those two companies. Once the dust settles I'm afraid that Rochester radio listeners will end up with what they had before; the same-old-same-old.

 

[mimic001]

Without getting into specifics...

The demo numbers show CMF took a major hit against their core audience - Men, 35-54, in their morning show. Where did those Men supposedly go? To Zone (their audience quadrupled in the morning to a very respectable rating)... and believe it or not, to WRMM whose morning audience more than doubled for this age group!

I guess CMF/Entercom won't be sending out any controversial emails to advertisers/agencies this month touting the strength of their morning show "post-Wease" (the station sent a mass emailing in April after the Winter book boasting of their ratings success).

Fox has no where to go but up, and come November 17, their numbers will surely double and probably triple. At least we'll have half a book to gauge Wease's success.

As for WRMM, their audience is going to the Drive, who had one of their best books in their short existence. Not surprisingly, PXY and the aforementioned Legends also saw increases.

This market can support a good soft AC like Warm. While I don't believe Stephens will let the station crumble, they probably also now realize the magnitude of their mistake letting Dee Alexander go.

By the way, keep an eye on CRR - the country rimshot. CC's dabble into country may have been enough to usurp some of BEE's audience, and let WHAM become the number one station once again.

 

[bobn]

Well, First and second A 25-54 Bee/ Buzz.
First, second third, W 25-54 Bee/Buzz/PXY
First, second, third 4th, M 25-54. Bee/Buzz/WHAM/WCMF

Hmmm...I think they might send out another email. Other than WHAM, no one has a top station other than entercom. Maybe that's why bobntom are on the fox and I am happy finally.

 

[Bob1370]

Are Bob & Tom really on the Fox, or was that a one time thing? Sounded like this morning they were back to their normal locally voicetracked music show, at least in the 8 AM hour...even if they do make further appearances, they're goners as soon as Wease gets his team lined up and his studio at the HSBC building fitted and ready, anyway.

Concerning the overall numbers, the ratings are getting a little tighter overall, with the top 3 stations remaining WHAM, WBEE and WDKX, all three significantly ahead of the rest of the pack, but with no one having quite the same share as in the winter book. Buzz looks healthy as well, with their strongest book since last summer. Warm 101 looks like Stephens screwed up bigtime in breaking up a successful morning team. Too late to do anything about it, since Entercom kept Dee Alexander under contract. Sure would love to know what they're going to do with her; her best regional fit in the Entercom group would arguably be at Star 102 in Buffalo, but they could conceivably put her either at BEE or at the Buzz, she'd fit there too.

The two CHR contenders, WPXY and WKGS, have gotten back to their normal levels, tightly bunched with PXY a little bit in the lead. Both stations rebounded from unusually down winter books. Their biggest problem is that a lot of the core target audience they seek, in both city and suburb, really now belongs to WDKX, which owns the 12-34 demos these days regardless of ethnicity and shows no signs of giving them up. Their audience profile looks a lot like WBBF's or WAXC's did a generation ago. their approach to providing a personality full-service format for that audience resembles WBBF's in the 60s and 70s as well.

Looks like Drive is picking up a little of the spillover from the stations shedding audience but all they've really accomplished is to get back to where they were before a really down winter book. Wouldn't read too much into that.

Fickle? Does it have much of an audience outside morning drive? Stephens has to decide whether to hire jocks for the rest of the day to build listenership, or let it go. The same could apply to Zone--its situation is less desperate, but you could argue it's underperforming too. Combine it with Warm's mistakes and Stephens has had a rough introduction to the Rochester market.

The impending change of WROC to ESPN makes no sense. As bad as the station's numbers are now, it's about to start splitting numbers with a competitor in a format where a single station (WHTK) is getting only a 1.3, and it has a worse signal than Hot Talk 1280 with less potential audience within its 2.5 mv contour. I still think ROC's best alternative in medium to long term is to go Latino, with local morning and afternoon drive shows (and maybe middays too) and the best syndicated stuff available in other dayparts. But they clearly are not going to do that, because of the ongoing investment in programming and talent they'd need to make, so WROC will still be an also-ran in the upcoming books.

I wonder why Entercom even holds on to the signal if they're not doing anything to get real value out of it? If they still wanted to use it as a blocking signal to chip away at WHAM and keep WBEE on top 12+ they didn't do enough in terms of local service to make it happen. If they wanted to try to knock WXXI-AM out of second place among AMs in the market by programming non-conservative talk, it didn't work, they failed. If they want to use it now to block out any other Clear Channel or Stephens property and cut it down to size, why choose the weakest station in either competing cluster to attack with another sports station? I bet they could probably get some $$$ from Regent (owner of co-channel WIBX in Utica) and CBS (owner of co-channel WWJ in Detroit) to take 'ROC dark and allow those stations to let out their patterns...not to mention how much that tower site on South Clinton Avenue in Brighton is worth for development. A sad end for a once dominant station that overcame its weaknesses to prosper...but now it's proven both ends of the equation that says unique and potentially popular programming, well executed=success, failure to program well=failure.

 

[luvcoors]

I just love it when someone makes "expert" analysis from 12+ numbers which don't mean a lot.

BEE, WHAM, and DKX have a sizeable lead over the rest of the market for a few reasons:

-No direct or sustainable competition in their formats for a long time...this plus good product, brand loyalty, and solid diary response from target audiences that can be measured fairly easily and seem to be "real".

Buzz...not doubt is on the receiving end of the fallout from WRMM...plus WRMM's product has slipped considerably in the past 5 years overall. Too much of a rollercoaster numbers-wise...down huge, up huge...they seem to have a picky audience now that notices when the music isn't right or they become too predictable. Becoming a little more Hot AC leaning is something that shoulda been done a while ago. True measure is seeing if Buzz can hold onto it.

The crack about PXY & Kiss is the one that's the most wrong here...DKX doesn't own 12-34 at all. It's mostly a race between PXY & DKX. But like I've mentioned elsewhere before...you have to be able to reach the most active potential diarykeepers of a CHR in order to get a true reaction. Arbitron doesn't and says it'll take another 2 years before they can reach cellphone only households (which make up a nice chunk of 18-29's now). 100 diaries with large QH's (that aren't accurate and are weighted more from ethnic households that Arbitron reaches...aka DKX) will always provide an advantage over a station that receives 150 diaries (weighted less) in a demo that isn't effectively reached. Not a fair fight...and hasn't been over the past 3-5 years. Arbitron still gives credit for stupid reasons that go beyond explanation. In my market, I went to Arbitron and examined diaries a couple of books ago after noticing some BS. I found 10-15 diaries with large QH's from people that had written down one of the following:

-Listened all night long while sleeping (yes...2 people wrote this in the diary itself and listening was credited to them...the 2 books totaled over 300 QH's for one station because of this...and yes, they were in the same household...no adjustment made by Arbitron)

-Another 6-8 diaries in which a total of 400 some QH's were credited to an out of market station instead of one of my sister station's. The other station's freq is one position off from that within my cluster...all of the entries had my sister station's frequency in it. Except on one day, the other station's call letters were written in...the reviewer said that was deciding factor. Yes, these diaries were split between 2 households in same zip, same week, and the all in the same demo (45-54 women).

-There were other horrible crediting mistakes.....

Kiss isn't at their normal level...once in a while they bust a 4 share...but mostly stay between 3-3.5, guarantee they fall back there during Summer book. PXY is below their normal 12+...it's been much higher in recent years...however their 18-34 and 25-54 (no worse than top 3 from what I know) numbers are very good...so who cares about 12+!

As I said...WRMM has now received a "check engine" light that needs to be fixed instead of an giving it an oil change. Drive, Zone, and everything else doesn't matter. WCMF is in need of major repair, hopefully it can be fixed, and the Fox will be interesting once Wease comes on which will be before November...guaranteed, wait for the ink to try on the bill in the Gov's office outlawing non-competes.

Good night!

 

[dampier]

Without getting into specifics...

The demo numbers show CMF took a major hit against their core audience - Men, 35-54, in their morning show. Where did those Men supposedly go? To Zone (their audience quadrupled in the morning to a very respectable rating)... and believe it or not, to WRMM whose morning audience more than doubled for this age group!

A lot of 20-something guys who have outgrown WBER have become loyal listeners to the Zone, dismissing WCMF as "too old." So the 35-54 audience joining them is excellent news for them. My cousin is in this boat, drifting away from WBER and, when not listening to the iPod, seems to prefer the Zone.

Not surprisingly, PXY and the aforementioned Legends also saw increases.

The Legends format has been updated considerably from when I recall spending some time with it on 990, but that was a long time ago. A lot more current stuff. I have to root for Crawford for being one of the industry players that is steeped in the faith, but it willing to flip to secular formats when it makes sense. It's also nice to see smaller players holding their own.

By the way, keep an eye on CRR - the country rimshot. CC's dabble into country may have been enough to usurp some of BEE's audience, and let WHAM become the number one station once again.

Maybe, but I have a feeling most of WBEE's audience doesn't even know the station exists. In fact, the last time I heard WCRR, it was entirely an automated affair run in the closet. They were even pointing people to the generic CC website for streaming country music on the desktop. The signal does quite well, often better than WBEE, down in Ontario county when you're indoors, so country fans might have found an easier to hear signal there (and perhaps fewer ads).

I have always been surprised none of the significant FM players ever challenged WBEE to any degree before. Country does remarkably well here.

I also have a feeling the contest between WHAM and WBEE isn't over by any means.

not to mention how much that tower site on South Clinton Avenue in Brighton is worth for development.

Please, we have enough on our hands trying to keep the snooty "gated community" concept out of Brighton now. Either that or the transmitter site becomes more medical and dental offices affiliated with Strong....

 

[Philip_Airtime]

I just love it when someone makes "expert" analysis from 12+ numbers which don't mean a lot.

And I will go on my annual (or semi-annual rant) against those who downplay the 12+ numbers. What's wrong with listing radio stations according to ALL their listeners? Oh, that's right, people over 55 don't count because they're not attractive to advertisers. The radio industry has to be the only place where being number one overall means nothing. Criticizing the 12+ numbers is like saying the Bills beat Dallas last year because Buffalo had more yardage and had six interceptions. In radio, I guess you're able to proclaim you're number one if you have more left-handed male listeners who pee sitting down in the 31-to-33 age range because that's my target demo. Woo-hoo! For me, I'd rather be at WYRK and WBEE or WBEN and WHAM because I can say I got more listeners than you do. The rest only matters to radio and advertising execs, which, I will grant you, are probably represented on this site. Plus, I do have access to the Arbitron book. And you know what? The stations that do well 12 + also do well in the 25-54 target demographic. I have yet to see a low rated station 12+ be able to proclaim it's number one in its target demographic. So, the "expert" analysis on the 12+ numbers we read here is pretty much on target on how things are in the "real world" of the money demos.

 

[luvcoors]

I just love it when someone makes "expert" analysis from 12+ numbers which don't mean a lot.

And I will go on my annual (or semi-annual rant) against those who downplay the 12+ numbers. What's wrong with listing radio stations according to ALL their listeners? Oh, that's right, people over 55 don't count because they're not attractive to advertisers. The radio industry has to be the only place where being number one overall means nothing. Criticizing the 12+ numbers is like saying the Bills beat Dallas last year because Buffalo had more yardage and had six interceptions. In radio, I guess you're able to proclaim you're number one if you have more left-handed male listeners who pee sitting down in the 31-to-33 age range because that's my target demo. Woo-hoo! For me, I'd rather be at WYRK and WBEE or WBEN and WHAM because I can say I got more listeners than you do. The rest only matters to radio and advertising execs, which, I will grant you, are probably represented on this site. Plus, I do have access to the Arbitron book. And you know what? The stations that do well 12 + also do well in the 25-54 target demographic. I have yet to see a low rated station 12+ be able to proclaim it's number one in its target demographic. So, the "expert" analysis on the 12+ numbers we read here is pretty much on target on how things are in the "real world" of the money demos.

You're somewhat right that 12+ numbers have some relation to how the actual 25-54 numbers play out. However, 12+ is a bragging rights number which doesn't mean squat compared to the actual target demo numbers of the audience a station sells. There's plenty of examples on how the #1 12+ station isn't #1 in their target demo and plenty of examples in how the #4 or #5 12+ station is #1 in their target demos. A station that ranks #1 12+ is the station that most times (99 of 100) gets the most total QH's of listening in a market. You can have the most cume (listeners per week) and still not be #1 as well.

Personally, in the last 10 years...my station's have been anywhere from 3rd to 7th 12+ in 85% of my ratings books, but I've been either 1st or 2nd in my target demo almost all the time...with a rare 3rd place mixed in.

So overall...your original statement still doesn't hold water most of the time! Trust me!

 

[Bob1370]

12+ numbers have SOME validity, especially to mass market advertisers, both local and national, whose product lines cut across demographic and gender lines. Car dealers, major appliance makers, food retailers, banks and major department stores can fall into that category. But over half the advertising done on radio falls outside those categories, and that's why demographic numbers can steer the majority of the advertising dollar pie.

 

[luvcoors]

I'll bet you a bottle of your favorite liquor vs. a case of my favorite beer that less than 10% of advertising buys across the board (local, regional, national) are made using 12+ numbers as the primary factor.

Advertisers care about:

-Rates
-Reach toward their target demo (M-Su 6am-Mid)
-How big your station's share is in the target demo (M-Su 6am-Mid)
-Cume in target demo (M-Su 6am-Mid)
-Then, the previous 3 facts within specific dayparts
-Then, MAYBE 12+

 

[OttoM]

12+ IS MEANINGLESS

I'll bet you a bottle of your favorite liquor vs. a case of my favorite beer that less than 10% of advertising buys across the board (local, regional, national) are made using 12+ numbers as the primary factor.

Advertisers care about:

-Rates
-Reach toward their target demo (M-Su 6am-Mid)
-How big your station's share is in the target demo (M-Su 6am-Mid)
-Cume in target demo (M-Su 6am-Mid)
-Then, the previous 3 facts within specific dayparts
-Then, MAYBE 12+

Amen, luvcoors. 12+ is a beauty contest. Period. And almost everyone whose paycheck comes from a radio station knows that.

 

[bobn]

AMEN. Ask anyone who sells radio. No one cares about 12+. PD's don't care. They get bonused on target demos. Must be that's where the money is.

10% is too high. I asked a friend who sells radio (23 years), and he says that he has never heard of 12+ mattering to anyone in sales.

 

[therealjm12]

In the old days 12+ counted. Back in the top 40 days before they started tearing age groups apart and it became CHR. Stations could go out and sell a book with big 12+ numbers even though they didn't have anyone over 25 listening. But it made them look huge. Yeah, things have sure change. Also, fringe stations could get some action if they showed up in a book 12+. I know. I worked at many of those station and they did pick up agency $$$ if they at least made a presence in the book. And, of course they did sell the book, although they probably didn't subscribed.

 

[ThePickleReport]

In the old days 12+ counted. Back in the top 40 days before they started tearing age groups apart and it became CHR. Stations could go out and sell a book with big 12+ numbers even though they didn't have anyone over 25 listening.

100% true at least in my past experience.

 

[Philip_Airtime]

Look, I know how radio works. So, I don't need the lecture that true "radio professionals" don't pay attention to 12+ numbers. Maybe that's so. And maybe that's why our industry is in the sorry state it is today. Twenty years ago, I worked for a little advertising agency. I'd get radio sales reps coming in, selling me on how well they did males 18 to 34 or adults 25 to 54 or females 35+. And if it made sense for my client, I'd buy the schedule. But you know what? When my boss and I bought a powerhouse like WBEN, based on its status as the overall 12+ station, our clients were most pleased. Their customers would tell them they heard their spots on 'BEN. Our clients felt they received the most bang for their buck from their schedule on 'BEN. Again, with clients who couldn't afford a 'BEN schedule, we'd target stations that were less expensive but had decent numbers in the client's target demographic. But the campaigns never worked as well. Now, I'm sure some of you will argue that was 20 years ago. But the late '80s were a lot like today. If you wanted young people, you bought KISS. If you wanted middle aged women, you bought WJYE. The thing is it was our clients' presence on WBEN, which many proclaimed was "old" even back then, that did the best for our clients. So, I didn't buy the fact that 12+ was just a beauty contest then, and I don't know. WYRK, WBEN, WBEE and WHAM are tops in overall audience. And no amount of spin is going to change that. I just get a bit steamed when I read comments that informed analysis from Bob 1370 and others based on 12+ numbers doesn't matter.

 

[luvcoors]

Your clients back then didn't use your agency to buy 12+ numbers...they bought it because it was dominant in 25-54 (their target) I'm sure. What kinds of businesses were they? If you had 25-54 clients on other stations and they said it didn't work well...it's because you put them on the wrong station.

The late 80's aren't like today....Kiss does extremely well with 12-17 & 18-34. And probably decent with 25-54. No offense, but I think your strategy and mindset aren't and haven't been with current business conditions and radio ideology for a long time.