Spring Numbers, Buffalo and Rochester

[Bob1370]

The Arbitrons are in for the two big Western NY markets...and they show some interesting, though not surprising, seasonal patterns, as well as a surprise or two.

First, what the two markets have in common, and what happens every year around this time...an FM modern country station (WYRK in Buffalo and WBEE in Rochester) surging to the top in 12+ AQH (and presumably 25-54 as well) and the biggest AM news/talker (WBEN in Buffalo and WHAM in Rochester) sliding to second place 12+, as the weather warms and the news cycle cools. And in each case, a strong urban format station with appeal to 12-34s in both city and suburb (WBLK in Buffalo, WDKX in Rochester) comes in a healthy third, right behind the traditional top two.

Second, some interesting developments in each market, below the top three. In Buffalo classic rock is strong with WGRF, classic hits do well with personality on WHTT and weakly on automated WBUF, and hot AC WHTT is showing its poorest numbers in years despite that big, big signal. WGR's also at its worst numbers in some time, showing the effects of the Sabres' early playoff exit this year.

In Rochester, most stations below the top 3 are pretty much holding their level. But one station, oldies WLGZ, has surged to a tie for fourth, by far its best numbers ever (and quite an achievement for a class A signal). Legends 102.7 may be among the most idiosyncratically programmed stations in the country musically (we've talked about the strange music sets which can juxtapose Frank Sinatra, Motown soul and the Rolling Stones in a single sweep). But it seems to be connecting with people, proving that a personality station that does its own thing can succeed against canned corporate radio. It'll be interesting to see how far this station can rise. I don't think it'll be able to challenge for the lead the way WCBS-FM does in New York, if for no other reason than that CBS-FM is a full market signal in NYC while Legends doesn't quite have enough of a coverage footprint in the six-county Rochester metro to cover it all. But it looks like as long as they keep doing what they're doing, they'll continue to be a significant player for some time to come.

Any thoughts?

 

[SirRoxalot]

The big news (12+) in Buffalo is the continued climb of WHTT, and the continued decline of Star. The demos will tell the story, but it seems pretty obvious that Star's getting squeezed between their sister "CHR/HAC" Kiss, and 'JYE's move to make it's music younger.

You have to believe that 'HTT is getting back a lot of their former "upper demo" listeners, and it's largely 50+. It makes you wonder if 'JYE saw that train comin', and decided to give up overall numbers in order to solidify 40-49 females.

Otherwise, as Bob said, it seems that 'GR misses the Sabres...

 

[Mark Giardina]

In Rochester, most stations below the top 3 are pretty much holding their level. But one station, oldies WLGZ, has surged to a tie for fourth, by far its best numbers ever (and quite an achievement for a class A signal). Legends 102.7 may be among the most idiosyncratically programmed stations in the country musically (we've talked about the strange music sets which can juxtapose Frank Sinatra, Motown soul and the Rolling Stones in a single sweep). But it seems to be connecting with people, proving that a personality station that does its own thing can succeed against canned corporate radio. It'll be interesting to see how far this station can rise. I don't think it'll be able to challenge for the lead the way WCBS-FM does in New York, if for no other reason than that CBS-FM is a full market signal in NYC while Legends doesn't quite have enough of a coverage footprint in the six-county Rochester metro to cover it all. But it looks like as long as they keep doing what they're doing, they'll continue to be a significant player for some time to come. Any thoughts?

Looking at the numbers (granted they are 12+) it appears the "B" took some audience away from WHAM.

As for Legends, it comes as no surprise that their audience has increased. I've always maintained that their station is the WEZO of the 21st century; meaning it’s a station that can be used as background music in offices (and that in no way was meant as a slam or slight against the station or its staff).

I must note with some skepticism however the numbers for WYSL. (* I do work there Saturday mornings and these are my opinions, not that of the station or owner.)

I just can't believe that the station registered a 0.6. Truth be known the station did register over a 1 share in a recent book but yet that figure is not mentioned in the latest ratings schedule that was released.

The big question is will these numbers generate revenue in an economy that is still on the mend?

 

[Bob1370]

Re: Spring Numbers, Buffalo and Rochester; a small correction

Slight correction in my initial post...when talking about Buffalo and hot AC's poor showing, I meant to say "WTSS", not repeat the call of WHTT, which as I'd previously mentioned in the same post did well with classic hits/oldies. Sorry for any confusion. But 102.5 clearly has some work to do...I don't hear it often enough to know just what's going off track or why a station with that monster signal is delivering blah numbers these days. (Maybe their core target demos look a lot stronger and they're not worried about non-core listeners, but then again...)

 

[RBW]

it seems pretty obvious that Star's getting squeezed between their sister "CHR/HAC" Kiss, and 'JYE's move to make it's music younger.

and it's largely 50+.

Spelling correction:

it's in 1st line should NOT have an apostrophe.
2nd line; "it's largely 50+" is correct.

Sorry to point that out, but I see it written wrong on this board countless times and always feel it needs correcting 8)

 

[SirRoxalot]

it seems pretty obvious that Star's getting squeezed between their sister "CHR/HAC" Kiss, and 'JYE's move to make it's music younger.

and it's largely 50+.

Spelling correction:

it's in 1st line should NOT have an apostrophe.
2nd line; "it's largely 50+" is correct.

Sorry to point that out, but I see it written wrong on this board countless times and always feel it needs correcting 8)

That would be more of a brain fart than a spelling correction, but you, sir, are correct.

 

[intheeno]

The only real way to look at these numbers is to compare spring 09 to spring 10. If you look at group shares you'll find: Townsquare was up 2.9 shares, Citadel up 2.2 shares and the mighty Entercom down 3.1 shares. Not a good day for David "silverspoon" Field. First reporting less than projected revenue growth (he was way off in thinking double digit growth), then taking a beating in the book. Are there changes in the wind?

 

[listener-in]

RBW, as a fellow stickler in the proper use of language, I appreciate the correction. Errors like this - usually from people who don't know better - really grate on us nitpickers; if we corrected every misuse of grammar that we saw, no doubt it would clog these boards.

Now, watch me show myself up with some silly mistake. That would really grate on me.

 

[umtrr-author]

With respect to Legends, it's been wondered before whether one of the, ahem, larger players in the Rochester market will sit up, take notice and flip one of their poorer performers to a similar format. I suppose it's still possible, but I don't think "reprogramming the jukebox" will suffice.

[Although somewhat unrelated, I have noticed that Fickle is adding more "everything" to their "everything" and seems to be skewing a bit more towards rock, but Mr. Sinatra remains among those artists who are not "everything." ]

If it is not out of bounds for the board's discussion of ratings, may I ask with whom they tied with for fourth place? Just curious.

 

[Element9]

The only real way to look at these numbers is to compare spring 09 to spring 10. If you look at group shares you'll find: Townsquare was up 2.9 shares, Citadel up 2.2 shares and the mighty Entercom down 3.1 shares. Not a good day for David "silverspoon" Field. First reporting less than projected revenue growth (he was way off in thinking double digit growth), then taking a beating in the book. Are there changes in the wind?

Yes, season-to-season is the true comparison. It doesn't hurt to look at what a station/format did in the Fall book, as long as the format and formatics are consistent. I'm only saying it helps to look at the previous book as a matter of context within four book averages.

It's doubtful that anybody at Citadel, Entercom or Townsquare Media tallies up the total Persons 12+ for each cluster. Rather, it's all about target demos, Person 25-54 and more than that, individual station and cluster revenue.

Much as we rant about Entercom from time to time, it's very likely the highest billing cluster in Buffalo and certainly the only cluster that hasn't had to endure bankruptcy procedures.

Format wise, there were many variations in Buffalo that would discount comparing the Spring '10 ratings to the Fall '09 book: 97 Rock had the Bills; WGR was serving up Bills talk and Sabres PBP; WTSS/Star was All-Christmas through three weeks of the Fall book; WJYE was still Soft AC and had not moved to Hot AC or changed its moniker to "Joy"; in August '09 WHTT reverted from AC Mix to Classic Hits and was in its first full book with the format; WBFO, now essentially all talk, was doing jazz in midday.

Trying to determine a station’s rating success using Persons 12+ is at best, nothing more than calculated guessing. But as we all know, that's one of the attractions of this forum.

There’s no surprise that WYRK is ranked #1 Persons 12+ in the Spring '10 book because it’s unchallenged, save for the mom ‘n pop shop in Lancaster, Super Country 1300 WXRL.

I'm guessing WBEN lost a bunch of Persons 35-64 to WHTT and maybe WBFO-FM, which went full bore talk.

WECK is better than a point 5 radio station, but cracking a one share seems like an impossible task in the face of talk format competition from WBEN, WNED-AM and WBFO-FM.

Classic Hits WHTT proved somebody at Citadel made a really stupid decision a few years ago when they abandoned the successful Buffalo’s Greatest Hits format, flipped to AC and challenged Star and WJYE.

Citadel must be very pleased (and relieved) that Classic Rock 97 Rock is up half a share from Spring ‘09 to 6.6, especially now that the “Classic” moniker is shared by Classic Hits WHTT, which is up nearly two shares from its dismal Spring ’09 showing as Mix. The 97 Rock and WHTT sales staff should have some very good Persons 35+ and Men 35-64 to sell.

But how much of a shelf life does Classic Rock or Classic Hits have? Even in a market as gray as Buffalo? Three years? Five years at best? Hard to get Persons 25-44 with stations that play music from the 60s and 70s.

Who in their right mind ever would guess that debtor-in-possession WJJL would tie ‘KB with a point 7? Entercom has a 50 kw blowtorch that can’t beat a ramshackle 1 kw daytimer in Niagara Falls. That. Is. Just. Not. Right.

Kiss is down from a year ago but I’m guessing it continues to attract a lot of Women 18-34 and most likely has a lock on Teens.

The Lake is up from Winter to a 2.2, although down from a 2.9 in Spring ’09. A few Lake listeners may have decided to get their 60’s and 70’s fix from WHTT. I’ve noticed the Lake seems to have cranked up their audio processing. Not that it makes much of a difference.

What’s to be said of the AC leaders Joy and Star? Joy, with its robot-sounding backsells, moved more toward Hot AC and is up from Spring ’09 but down from Winter ’10. Could be Women 55-64 moved to WHTT to hear Barry White, Marvin Gaye and the Supremes.

Star is the real head-scratcher in this puzzle. Have the over-processed audio, recent music changes, competition on the lower end from sister Kiss, competition from the upper end from WHTT and head to head competition from Joy (and even WYRK) taken a toll on the once dominant Hot AC? Or does it maintain a healthy chunk of Women 35-49 (and not much other than that) not reflected by the Person 12+ number here. If so, Star may be doing just fine.

Again, looking at Persons 12+ leaves a lot of guessing.

What about WBUF-Jack? Like a pre-programmed dish-washer with no jocks to gum up the bottom line, it gurgles the hits just enough to be a stone in Star’s shoe.

Used to be that Entercom controlled the Wall Of Women, but the combination of WYRK, WBLK, WJYE and even WBUF/Jack may have shored-up Townsquare Media’s control of the critical Women 25-54 demographic. I'm just guessin'....

Still, after all's said and done and after all the speculation, it's not the ratings, it's the revenue.

 

[Bob1370]

"If it is not out of bounds for the board's discussion of ratings, may I ask with whom (Legends 102.7) tied with for fourth place? Just curious"

It was 98PXY.

 

[RBW]

RBW, as a fellow stickler in the proper use of language, I appreciate the correction. Errors like this - usually from people who don't know better - really grate on us nitpickers; if we corrected every misuse of grammar that we saw, no doubt it would clog these boards.

Thank you

In no way do I wish to disrupt the topic flow, but wanted to say that was the first time I've ever done that! (having wanted to many times though) Usually I feel it's probably an oversight, and goes unnoticed by most people. Us sticklers are probably more annoying to those who make the "feaux-pas" (bf's, typo's, etc) than they actually are to us.

Case closed. Carry-on.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Us sticklers are probably more annoying to those who make the "feaux-pas" (bf's, typo's, etc) than they actually are to us.

Not to be a stickler, but the expression is "faux pas", from French for "false step". It is the same either singular or plural...

 

[therealjm12]

It's interesting to note the top three music stations in Rochester are country, Urban, & oldies. The second two stations are lower power class A's. Don't know what this means but I'm sure it means something.

 

[Bob1370]

"The second two stations (out of the top three music stations in the Rochester market) are lower power class A's. Don't know what this means but I'm sure it means something."

Probably means people will look for the music and personalities they want most, whether or not the station's got a big signal. It was true back in the 60s when the weakest fulltime AM signal in Rochester (WBBF) still pulled the biggest numbers. It's still true now.

It also tells you those stations would probably do still better with a stronger stick. WDKX especially does really well in the 'burbs outside the city limits with 12-34s, and would probably pull strongly in the outer-ring towns and counties with a full class B signal. Maybe strongly enough to pass WHAM and give WBEE a fight for the #1 spot 12+. WLGZ might also show up in the top 3, with the kind of showing that similar stations with full-market signals like WCBS-FM in NYC are making in their markets.

 

[docgoblin]

I noticed this morning that Lilly from The Wease show has been completely removed from their website as if she never existed (same thing happened with Anthony Caiazzo when he was let go last year). There was no indication yesterday that she was going anywhere. Does anyone know if she has left the show? Are the ratings down and is this possibly some kind of a shake-up? Its hard to believe they would think she's the problem if ratings aren't good.

 

[docgoblin]

I mistakenly posted the above question in this thread where it really doesn't belong. Sorry about that. I've created a new thread for the topic.

 

[Paul Jason]

Personality Radio, and now several air talent staff members who are known for doing Oldies Formats in the Market for many years. Great combination. To my fellow Legends 102.7FM Co-Workers, WAY TO GO, and let's keep driving for the top 3!!