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Summer Arbitron Phase 1 Comments

J

Joseph_Gallant

Guest
Based on the released 12-plus numbers for the first phase of the Summer 2005 Arbitrons, I have a few comments:

(1) WAAF-107.3 and WFNX-101.7. WAAF has (in terms of total audience) lost one-third of it's listeners in the past year. WFNX has again ranked below a 1 share (with the lowest 12-plus share since the complete Summer 2004 book).

I used to think that Boston was immune to the problems facing rock radio nationally (mainly due to the fact that the format's traditional prime demographic, young adult males, is not more likely to listen to rap and hip-hop instead of rock). But now, with WAAF's poor showing since the Fall of 2004, I wonder if Boston will even be able to support more than one rock station.

Again, WFNX owner Steve Mindich should drop rock and change his station's format (perhaps to Spanish-language programming; there's now a huge hole in the market for it). But realistically, I think the only way 'FNX's format will be changed is if the station is sold.

If WAAF's ratings continue to shrink, I wonder if the station might decide to change formats. Yes, WAAF would be abandoning a 35-year or so legacy as a rock station, but Entercom may find more success with 107.3 were they change formats (i.e. Spanish-language programming, a simulcast of either WRKO-680 or WEEI-850 to alleviate the signal problems both stations have in Metrowest, smooth jazz).

(2) WMJX-106.7: Their 12-plus share in the first part of the Summer book has to be their worst 12-plus share in many years. But I wouldn't worry much about it. The first phase of a Summer book is the worst single month of the year for most soft AC's like WMJX: After all, most people are on vacation the first two weeks of July and soft AC's like WMJX generally promote at-work listening.

(3) WXKS-107.9, WJMN-94.5, and WBOT-97.7: Over the years, top-40/CHR stations (including WXKS-FM), and in more recent times, rhythmic CHR's (like WJMN) and young-skewing urban stations (like WBOT) usually have their best book in the Summer due to the fact that teens are out of school and have more time to listen to the radio.

But in 12-plus, WJMN, WBOT, and WXKS-FM all only managed very small gains. But the impact of WBOT's new signal (transmitting from the top of Great Blue Hill) probably won't be felt until the final portion (Phase 3) of the Summer book and the Fall book.

(4) WMKK-93.7: The 12-plus numbers, which went down a bit after the change from "Star" to "Mike" went down a bit again. But it's much too soon to press the panic button.

Besides, with no live announcers, Entercom does not have to pay for a high-priced airstaff at "Mike". Even if "Mike"'s ratings go down, with a corresponding reduction in the price of the station's commercial spots, it's possible that the station's profit may go up, because the huge overhead has been significantly cut.

(5) WBZ-1030: WBZ did dip between Winter and Spring, and had slightly fewer listeners during Phase 1 of Summer 2005 than in the Summer 2004 books. Blame the arrival of Spring and Summer (and the fact that the winter snowstorm season has ended) and the fact Boston is not hosting a politcal convention this year as it did last year.

(6) WJIB-740: Would Bob Bittner consider selling a limited number of commercial spots?? There might be a chance to make a little money with the station. I personally am not the type to sell radio spots, however, if I were an advertiser looking to reach mature adults in the Boston area, I would actually try to buy some commercial spots on WJIB as part of my radio advertising buys.

Comments? Please feel free to post your opinions.
 
> Based on the released 12-plus numbers for the first phase of
> the Summer 2005 Arbitrons, I have a few comments:
>
> (1) WAAF-107.3 and WFNX-101.7. WAAF has (in terms of total
> audience) lost one-third of it's listeners in the past year.
> WFNX has again ranked below a 1 share (with the lowest
> 12-plus share since the complete Summer 2004 book).
>
> I used to think that Boston was immune to the problems
> facing rock radio nationally (mainly due to the fact that
> the format's traditional prime demographic, young adult
> males, is not more likely to listen to rap and hip-hop
> instead of rock). But now, with WAAF's poor showing since
> the Fall of 2004, I wonder if Boston will even be able to
> support more than one rock station.
>
>
> If WAAF's ratings continue to shrink, I wonder if the
> station might decide to change formats. Yes, WAAF would be
> abandoning a 25-year or so legacy as a rock station, but
> Entercom may find more success with 107.3 were they change
> formats (i.e. Spanish-language programming, a simulcast of
> either WRKO-680 or WEEI-850 to alleviate the signal problems
> both stations have in Metrowest, smooth jazz).
>

I understand from reading Scott Fybush's NERW that they're going
ahead with the transmitter move to W. Boylston, MA. Perhaps they
feel a few additional microvolts in Metro boston will help.

> (2) WMJX-106.7: Their 12-plus share in the first part of the
> Summer book has to be their worst 12-plus share in many
> years. But I wouldn't worry much about it. The first phase
> of a Summer book is the worst single month of the year for
> most soft AC's like WMJX: After all, most people are on
> vacation the first two weeks of July and soft AC's like WMJX
> generally promote at-work listening.
>
Then why did they run a TV campaign when they did, uness it was
to diminish the expected downturn?
 
> > Based on the released 12-plus numbers for the first phase
> of
> > the Summer 2005 Arbitrons, I have a few comments:
> >
> > (1) WAAF-107.3 and WFNX-101.7. WAAF has (in terms of total
>
> > audience) lost one-third of it's listeners in the past
> year.
> > WFNX has again ranked below a 1 share (with the lowest
> > 12-plus share since the complete Summer 2004 book).
> >
> > I used to think that Boston was immune to the problems
> > facing rock radio nationally (mainly due to the fact that
> > the format's traditional prime demographic, young adult
> > males, is not more likely to listen to rap and hip-hop
> > instead of rock). But now, with WAAF's poor showing since
> > the Fall of 2004, I wonder if Boston will even be able to
> > support more than one rock station.
> >
> >
> > If WAAF's ratings continue to shrink, I wonder if the
> > station might decide to change formats. Yes, WAAF would be
>
> > abandoning a 25-year or so legacy as a rock station, but
> > Entercom may find more success with 107.3 were they change
>
> > formats (i.e. Spanish-language programming, a simulcast of
>
> > either WRKO-680 or WEEI-850 to alleviate the signal
> problems
> > both stations have in Metrowest, smooth jazz).
> >
>
> I understand from reading Scott Fybush's NERW that they're
> going
> ahead with the transmitter move to W. Boylston, MA. Perhaps
> they
> feel a few additional microvolts in Metro boston will help.
>
> > (2) WMJX-106.7: Their 12-plus share in the first part of
> the
> > Summer book has to be their worst 12-plus share in many
> > years. But I wouldn't worry much about it. The first phase
>
> > of a Summer book is the worst single month of the year for
>
> > most soft AC's like WMJX: After all, most people are on
> > vacation the first two weeks of July and soft AC's like
> WMJX
> > generally promote at-work listening.
> >
> Then why did they run a TV campaign when they did, uness it
> was
> to diminish the expected downturn?
>
Again 12+ in the real world means very little. It's all about the demos.
 
WATD in Marshfield showed up!

WATD made a showing, and WJIB keeps climbing!

It's looking up for (really) independent radio!

And, WXKS-AM is still listed as Adult Standards.
 
Re: WATD in Marshfield showed up!

And it's difficult (if not impossible) to pick-up WATD-95.9 to the north, northwest, or west of Boston.

It's a Class "A" station whose coverage area is mostly south of Boston.

In Boston's southern and southeastern suburbs, WATD must really attract an audience. Good for them! They're a well-programmed station, IMHO the best-programmed "suburban" radio station in the country.
 
Frank FM in Nashua

They made quite a showing for a station that probobly doesn't reach much of the market.They must have quite a few listeners in a small area.They're also jockless.
 
Re: WATD in Marshfield showed up!

> And it's difficult (if not impossible) to pick-up WATD-95.9
> to the north, northwest, or west of Boston.

Actually, WATD makes it across the water to the coastal North Shore fairly well, and the coast is far enough away from the adjacent interference of inland stations WSRS and WZID.

To the west, IBOC from WSRS Worcester kills WATD by Route 128.

I listen in stereo, but with static, on my good quality tuners in Somerville. I find an antenna position which nulls out WSRS, and the multi-station intermod interference from the Pru.
 
> WFNX has again ranked below a 1 share (with the lowest
> 12-plus share since the complete Summer 2004 book).

Are college students included in Arbitron surveys these days? I remember
years ago reading an article in the Globe about WCAS and they mentioned
something about college students, being 'transitory', not being counted:
"if college students were counted in ratings surveys, TIME Magazine would
beat a path to WCAS' door..." Yes, these are "12 +" numbers but do they
count college students in surveys? Curious about that.

> Again, WFNX owner Steve Mindich should drop rock and change
> his station's format (perhaps to Spanish-language
> programming; there's now a huge hole in the market for it).
> But realistically, I think the only way 'FNX's format will
> be changed is if the station is sold.

Well, he links it to the paper and its young adult audience.


> (5) WBZ-1030

Will the re-emergence of the Bruins up their numbers?

Slight downtick in both WRKO and WTKK. AAR stations the same. "Frank" out of Nashua slightly up. Did the Red Sox help WBOQ (if only slightly)? I know they only started doing games after the All Star break...<P ID="signature">______________
News and views about Boston and New England Radio:

http://www.livejournal.com/community/boston_radio</P>
 
Re: WATD in Marshfield showed up!

> And it's difficult (if not impossible) to pick-up WATD-95.9
> to the north, northwest, or west of Boston.

WATD can come in on the North Shore (try on Rt 128 from Reading to Beverly, and along coast) though there was a while that it didn't
really come in well because WSRS was splattering over it. (oops, made this post and then read Eli's and he basically said same thing)

<P ID="signature">______________
News and views about Boston and New England Radio:

http://www.livejournal.com/community/boston_radio</P>
 
Something I am sure that many don't take into consideration is that the young adult audience, for the most part...don't and won't ever get surveyed by Arbiton.

Stop and think how Arbitron places diaries in homes...they call first to inquire if there is interest to participate for their "dairy week". Here is the kicker; Arbitron is having a "major" struggle in trying to survey the listeners of those that are true AAF and FNX fans...they can't reach them since they don't have "land line" phones! These listeners are packing cell phones over having a traditional "home phone" so Arbitron can not solicit them to participate.

I believe that the "real" AQH and cume numbers for "modern rock" stations, primarily the 18-34 audience is so under reflected in their survey results that it is costing stations like AAF and FNX mega-bucks.

One of these days Arbitron will admit that they are in BIG trouble as "millions" of radio listeners are "cell" phone "only" households…and will never be reflected in their surveys.

Anyone from Arbitron listening (reading these boards)….and care to “spill the beans”.




> Based on the released 12-plus numbers for the first phase of
> the Summer 2005 Arbitrons, I have a few comments:
>
> (1) WAAF-107.3 and WFNX-101.7. WAAF has (in terms of total
> audience) lost one-third of it's listeners in the past year.
> WFNX has again ranked below a 1 share (with the lowest
> 12-plus share since the complete Summer 2004 book).
>
> I used to think that Boston was immune to the problems
> facing rock radio nationally (mainly due to the fact that
> the format's traditional prime demographic, young adult
> males, is not more likely to listen to rap and hip-hop
> instead of rock). But now, with WAAF's poor showing since
> the Fall of 2004, I wonder if Boston will even be able to
> support more than one rock station.
>
> Again, WFNX owner Steve Mindich should drop rock and change
> his station's format (perhaps to Spanish-language
> programming; there's now a huge hole in the market for it).
> But realistically, I think the only way 'FNX's format will
> be changed is if the station is sold.
>
> If WAAF's ratings continue to shrink, I wonder if the
> station might decide to change formats. Yes, WAAF would be
> abandoning a 35-year or so legacy as a rock station, but
> Entercom may find more success with 107.3 were they change
> formats (i.e. Spanish-language programming, a simulcast of
> either WRKO-680 or WEEI-850 to alleviate the signal problems
> both stations have in Metrowest, smooth jazz).
>
> (2) WMJX-106.7: Their 12-plus share in the first part of the
> Summer book has to be their worst 12-plus share in many
> years. But I wouldn't worry much about it. The first phase
> of a Summer book is the worst single month of the year for
> most soft AC's like WMJX: After all, most people are on
> vacation the first two weeks of July and soft AC's like WMJX
> generally promote at-work listening.
>
> (3) WXKS-107.9, WJMN-94.5, and WBOT-97.7: Over the years,
> top-40/CHR stations (including WXKS-FM), and in more recent
> times, rhythmic CHR's (like WJMN) and young-skewing urban
> stations (like WBOT) usually have their best book in the
> Summer due to the fact that teens are out of school and have
> more time to listen to the radio.
>
> But in 12-plus, WJMN, WBOT, and WXKS-FM all only managed
> very small gains. But the impact of WBOT's new signal
> (transmitting from the top of Great Blue Hill) probably
> won't be felt until the final portion (Phase 3) of the
> Summer book and the Fall book.
>
> (4) WMKK-93.7: The 12-plus numbers, which went down a bit
> after the change from "Star" to "Mike" went down a bit
> again. But it's much too soon to press the panic button.
>
> Besides, with no live announcers, Entercom does not have to
> pay for a high-priced airstaff at "Mike". Even if "Mike"'s
> ratings go down, with a corresponding reduction in the price
> of the station's commercial spots, it's possible that the
> station's profit may go up, because the huge overhead has
> been significantly cut.
>
> (5) WBZ-1030: WBZ did dip between Winter and Spring, and had
> slightly fewer listeners during Phase 1 of Summer 2005 than
> in the Summer 2004 books. Blame the arrival of Spring and
> Summer (and the fact that the winter snowstorm season has
> ended) and the fact Boston is not hosting a politcal
> convention this year as it did last year.
>
> (6) WJIB-740: Would Bob Bittner consider selling a limited
> number of commercial spots?? There might be a chance to make
> a little money with the station. I personally am not the
> type to sell radio spots, however, if I were an advertiser
> looking to reach mature adults in the Boston area, I would
> actually try to buy some commercial spots on WJIB as part of
> my radio advertising buys.
>
> Comments? Please feel free to post your opinions.
>
 
>
> Stop and think how Arbitron places diaries in homes...they
> call first to inquire if there is interest to participate
> for their "dairy week". Here is the kicker; Arbitron is
> having a "major" struggle in trying to survey the listeners
> of those that are true AAF and FNX fans...they can't reach
> them since they don't have "land line" phones! These
> listeners are packing cell phones over having a traditional
> "home phone" so Arbitron can not solicit them to
> participate.
>

The problem is not new and not limited to just rock stations.
Top40 and hip-hop is also heavily impacted since Arbitron estimates that
around 20% of the 18-34 demo has permanently 'cut the cord'. This sure
does take money out of pockets of Infinitys and Clear Channels.

Yea, their survey system is terribly outdated, and they're working
on ways to fix it as we speak.

Another thing that works against Arbitron is that Federal law prohibits
research companies like Nielsen and Arbitron from using predictive
dialers(just another fancy phrase for a computerized system that
automatically dials batches of telephone numbers from various call centers around the country and the world). Telemarketers don't have this problem, but Arbitron does. Their people actually have to dial your number to reach you.


> I believe that the "real" AQH and cume numbers for "modern
> rock" stations, primarily the 18-34 audience is so under
> reflected in their survey results that it is costing
> stations like AAF and FNX mega-bucks.
>
> One of these days Arbitron will admit that they are in BIG
> trouble as "millions" of radio listeners are "cell" phone
> "only" households…and will never be reflected in their
> surveys.

The problem is many people, younger and older, just don't want to asnwer
research or telemarketing calls anymore. Arbitron is fighting a losing battle.

> Anyone from Arbitron listening (reading these boards)….and
> care to “spill the beans”.
>
>
>
>
 
>
> Another thing that works against Arbitron is that Federal
> law prohibits
> research companies like Nielsen and Arbitron from using
> predictive
> dialers(just another fancy phrase for a computerized system
> that
> automatically dials batches of telephone numbers from
> various call centers around the country and the world).
> Telemarketers don't have this problem, but Arbitron does.
> Their people actually have to dial your number to reach you.


Sorry, this is wrong. I'd be interested in knowing who pitched you this gem<P ID="signature">______________
We send you a $1 every other day. Please fill out your diaries.

Please help Err Amerika: http://larslarson.com/LinksNStuff/LarsSpoofs/Attachment_GetAttachment.aspx?id=1466&fd=0
</P>
 
Re: Frank FM in Nashua

> They made quite a showing for a station that probably
> doesn't reach much of the market.

They broadcast at 106.3 on the FM dial. Where I am (Norwood, MA), I get WWKX-106.3 ("Hot 106") out of Woonsocket/Providence instead of "Frank".

> They ("Frank") must have quite a few listeners in a small area.
> They're also jockless.

Isn't "Frank" a "Jack"-type format?? "Jack"-type formats generally run without live announcers.
 
Re: Frank FM in Nashua

> Isn't "Frank" a "Jack"-type format?? "Jack"-type formats
> generally run without live announcers.

No, "Frank" is the only one of those "male name" formats that isn't adult variety hits (a la "Jack").

"Frank" is Classic Hits. The playlist is similar to WROR.
 
Re: Frank FM in Nashua

> > Isn't "Frank" a "Jack"-type format?? "Jack"-type formats
> > generally run without live announcers.
>
> No, "Frank" is the only one of those "male name" formats
> that isn't adult variety hits (a la "Jack").
>
> "Frank" is Classic Hits. The playlist is similar to WROR.
>

I'd expect that Frank in Nashua will eventually have somewhat of an airstaff, since 107.5 Frank FM in Portland does.
 
>
> I believe that the "real" AQH and cume numbers for "modern
> rock" stations, primarily the 18-34 audience is so under
> reflected in their survey results that it is costing
> stations like AAF and FNX mega-bucks.
>
> One of these days Arbitron will admit that they are in BIG
> trouble as "millions" of radio listeners are "cell" phone
> "only" households…and will never be reflected in their
> surveys.

As someone else noted, this has long been a problem for stations targeting a late-teen/early-mid 20s audience. People in this age group tend to move a lot, and are on the go a lot. I remember hearing the same complaints about AOR and Top 40 numbers being under-reported 25 years ago.

The tendency of this age group to have a cell rather than a land-line phone is certainly an increasing issue as is the fact that more and more people to use caller ID or an answering machine to screen calls. I would not want to be someone trying to take a survey these days.
 
Re: Frank FM in Nashua

> I'd expect that Frank in Nashua will eventually have
> somewhat of an airstaff, since 107.5 Frank FM in Portland
> does.
>

At least they could voicetrack shifts with WFNK in Portland, like Nassau does with 105.5 Frank FM, located somewhere around Ellsworth, ME.

WFNQ has clearly made far more strides than WHOB, especially due to the station's lousy signal in MetroWest (In Framingham, I get a mix of WFNQ and WWKX 106.3, though WWKX is always stronger) and non-existant signal on the South Shore due to WWKX.

Speaking of WFNQ/WWKX, could the two stations, in a simulcast, create a rimshot signal for the Boston area? Or could WFNQ be deleted and WWKX 106.3 could be "moved-in" to the Boston market, perhaps allocated to a community in MetroWest? It need to be far enough from 106.7 WMJX and 106.1 WCOD while not being too close to 106.3 WEIB or 106.5 WBMW. I'd think it could be done though, COL of Southboro? Ashland? Just a thought.
 
Re: Frank FM in Nashua

> Speaking of WFNQ/WWKX, could the two stations, in a
> simulcast, create a rimshot signal for the Boston area?

Neither one comes in worth anything in the city (at least partially due to all intermod interference from all the stations on the Pru). A "rimshotter" by definition should have at least a weak signal in the city it's "rimshotting", but though WFNQ and WWKX can be heard in some of the suburbs in their respective directions, neither is really listenable right in Boston or the immediate surrounding urban cities.

> Or could WFNQ be deleted and WWKX 106.3 could be "moved-in" to
> the Boston market, perhaps allocated to a community in
> MetroWest? It need to be far enough from 106.7 WMJX and
> 106.1 WCOD while not being too close to 106.3 WEIB or 106.5
> WBMW. I'd think it could be done though, COL of Southboro?
> Ashland? Just a thought.

I'm guessing MetroWest would probably still be too close to WMJX for a second adjacent.
 
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