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Summer Phase One

M

mammaknowsbest

Guest
Very interesting trend! Nice increases for MOVIN, JAZZ, KPLZ, KUBE in the key demos for July. Big downturns for WOLF, JACK, KBKS, KIRO and KMPS.
Some one on this board said mornings in Seattle never change and it was certainly old school in July. Bob Rivers, Kent and Alan and Ichabod are top three 25-54 adults. T-MAN owns 18-34, as usual. It is kind of surprising that FITZ dropped off, Jackie and Bender continue to slide (even with adding the talents of Jubel and Sami) and the AM stations KIRO and KOMO are not really players 25-54 anymore in morning drive. Why do these three old shows continue to draw new listeners? I am a woman in the core demo and is this the best Seattle has to offer. Let's hope the MOVIN morning show or the rumored new KBKS morning show (though rumors on this board are suspect) can shake things up.
 
I think the dominance of Rivers, Kent and Alan and Ichabod is somewhat unique to Seattle. I checked the July trend and you are correct, these three are on top 25-54 Adults. Rivers usually dominates men, Kent and Alan women and Ichabod a combination of both. This time they are 1,2,3 in adults across the board. If you opened a book from July a decade ago, it probably would have looked the same. These shows have been pronounced dead multiple times and keep coming back.

It is not the case in all markets I represent. In LA, Kevin and Bean have been dominant for a decade, but everyone else is pretty new. Ryan Seacrest just came on the scene in the past few years. In SF, KGO dominates, but after that there are no consistent players. In Portland, it is a crap-shoot as to who will be number one. Murdoch is a new player. To have three Seattle shows play at this level for that long (I listened to them in high school) shows Seattle is a loyal town and likes their comfortable local shows. Got to give the old guys credit for doing something right.

Big winners in the trend were KUBE and KPLZ with huge increases 25-54. JACK and KBKS continue their long decline from last year. KMPS seems to be coming back strong, with WOLF taking a big drop. Too early to call this one based on one trend. JACK has declined every month since November, and is pretty much over as many on this board thought would happen. MOVIN is an example of why you should be careful with trends. They had a huge JUNE 18-34 and lots of posters pronounced them the new CHR in town. This trend the slipped quite a bit. 25-54 they never were a factor. KIRO has also slipped substantially, the new lineup was soundly trounced. Tough for AM stations all around.
 
Curious how Movin' really did in the ratings. Mama says they did well, but Dan you imply they slipped a fair bit. According to many posters, this is without a doubt the "station to watch" both here in Seattle and around the country. In fact, Mama mentioned recently that the staff at Movin' would be called in to assist similar stations in Chicago and LA. Hmmmm. What's the real story? Also....what happened to the Wolf? Is is possible that in this town...new stations come on very strong, but listeners quickly return to what they know and what is comfortable?
 
It depends on what you are looking at. 12+ MOVIN jumped from 17th to 14th June to July. 18-34 they dropped from 1st to 6th. So they were up in some places, down in others. WOLF was cut in half in July and KMPS looked strong, especially in mornings where Ichabod doubles FITZ in July. I think stations like WOLF and JACK come on strong and may fade. I would rather see a station slowly trend up and be a long-term player. Remember this is not a one trend game, but an entirely new format that is developing as it goes. And Yes, I do know the local MOVIN team helps Alan Burns consult his bigger clients as the format is refined. I would agree that up until this point Seattle tends to return to their old favorite stations and morning shows. Maybe the right show has just not come along yet. Time will tell.
 
mammaknowsbest said:
Jackie and Bender continue to slide (even with adding the talents of Jubel and Sami)

Let's hope the MOVIN morning show or the rumored new KBKS morning show (though rumors on this board are suspect) can shake things up.
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Jubel (producer) and Sami (traffic) are not new.

You keep referencing a 'rumor' about a new KBKS morning show, but there is none. Just because someone posts on radio-info what they think would be good doesn't mean it's a rumor. Someone posted that Movin should grab Jubel, are you going to grab on that and keep posting it for no reason? It's fiction. Movin' In The Morning with Rick Dees starts October 2! That's fiction too, but I bet someone starts referencing it as a 'rumor'.

There have been a few good discussion threads about real topics lately, this isn't one of them. Stick to reality, mamma, and watch TV if you're bored. Your explanation of why a station went up or down .1 won't be missed.

Does this board have an ignore feature? ::)
 
biffhenderson said:
Curious how Movin' really did in the ratings. Mama says they did well, but Dan you imply they slipped a fair bit.

Mama mentioned recently that the staff at Movin' would be called in to assist similar stations in Chicago and LA. Hmmmm. What's the real story?
Click to expand...
The real story is 'mamma' is playing on radio-info and some people believe 'her'. The blurb on All Access said Seattle would help consult other Movin stations, that's the only source of info anyone here has. I suggest you subscribe to their daily email or read the site, you'll quickly see what's real and what isn't.

Lisa Adams has no airstaff, they have a promotions director handling promtions, so what exactly can she tell someone in #3 and #2 that they don't get from Alan Burns?
 
Lighten up. It is just a trend. WOLF had a bad one, so did KBKS, so did JACK.
Big deal, it is one trend. Let's drop the KBKS talk, they aren't a factor in any significant demo anymore, even 12+. Give the new PD time to get things fixed. It takes time to beat established shows in any market. Stations like WOLF, MOVIN, JACK will move forward two steps, back one. The big prize is in four books. Let's see who is standing. For now it is Rivers, Ichabod, Kent and Alan. Good for them, they have fine older shows. Don't count the new stations out yet and KBKS may suprise you again as well.
 
Ichabod was gone for 3 weeks of July, that speaks to the strength of the station's brand and very little to him as a talent. KMPS is a habit, with or without Ichabod.
 
It's very interesting that both Mama and Takeitfromme were totally celebrating the last trend of the Spring book...but now that Movin and The Wolf have slipped back to much more realistic numbers, they are reminding everyone what most of us have been saying the entire time: it's a four BOOK average that matters...not a trend. That is why responsible programmers and GM's do not put so much weight on a monthly as to actually celebrate a trend (as they did BIG TIME in the Factoria area), or to lament a bad month. As I have said in the past, spend more time working on your product and less time boasting about your stations! You are bound to reap more substantial benefits! Now go get 'em Lisa and FITZ!
 
And one more thing....Mama, you are damaging your amazing credibility...it seems like only yesterday that you were telling us this bit of wisdom about 12+ numbers:

"My point is 12+ makes no difference when it comes to 25-54 success. MOVIN and JACK are not targeting in on 12+ because it doesn't matter, they want 25-54 success..." (Mama: Reply #10 on: August 24, 2006, 08:16:05 pm)

But now you are implying that Movin' is up....we all thought you did not care about 12+, so apparently you are substantially down because you plummetted in your target...what a shame.
 
Ichabod

First of all - Ichabod was NOT gone for three weeks in July...only TWO..

Besides, mornings played Ichabod 'excepts' from past shows while he was away...

'Randoon' will continue to rule -- FOOL!
 
lol.. I'm with ya on this one Biff!

Also, I sense a lot of hostility from TakeItFromMe since this new trend is out. I mean FITZ in the morning pretty much tanked in July. (Yes I know it's a trend).

If you go back and check the posts from TakeItFromMe, back when the actual BOOK came out, god was he gloating about how great FITZ in the morning was.

I said it a while back on a post, and I'll say it again. Anything new, people are going to be checking out. Entercom paid for those ratings in that Spring Book. We'll see how the wolf does. My guess is that FITZ in the morning will perform ratings wise just like Jackie and Bender did, he'll do alright at first, then just drop. Then we'll all be guessing who the new WOLF morning show will be;)
 
yoyo205 said:
lol.. I'm with ya on this one Biff!

Also, I sense a lot of hostility from TakeItFromMe since this new trend is out. I mean FITZ in the morning pretty much tanked in July. (Yes I know it's a trend).

If you go back and check the posts from TakeItFromMe, back when the actual BOOK came out, god was he gloating about how great FITZ in the morning was.
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Yes, it's amazing how people guessing at things can be wrong. I'm shocked! :p

The ratings aren't known until the books are out, guessing at who's up or down or what morning show is out just makes people look bored. Heck, I'm up at 4am, I'm only posting here because I finally beat Minesweeper. ;D
 
Two book and four book are what people buy. Trends do have a purpose in my view. You can see if a station is down or up in a book because of a one month flluke. You can also see a downward/upward pattern. For example:

1. JACK has been trending down since November when they peaked in the six share range 25-54. They are in the two share range now. That means there is a problem

2. WOLF had been trending up (outside of mornings) since their launch in December. In July they were cut it half. Is that a one month fluke or the beginning of something more. Next few trends will tell.
 
And remember one thing about the July trend: this followed Wolf's absolute no-show at the Kenny Chesney concert.

The biggest concert of the summer and an absolute must-win for Wolf. I was there, and this is what I saw: KMPS, KMPS, and KMPS. Everywhere I looked, I saw KMPS - banners, signs, t-shirts, and a huge stage complete with live music and all of their jocks present, in front of a huge crowd pre-funcing and waiting to win backstage passes. Awesome.

Down the street, parked and quiet, was Wolf's ultra unhip semi truck. Just sitting there with no one around it. I heard that Wolf had a tent at the southwest corner of Qwest Field - the wrong place to be, and that nothing much was happening there. I also heard that that some kids in Wolf t-shirts came down to the KMPS party and attempted to "disrupt" it. No one paid any attention to them and they eventually walked away, looking confused.

People, this isn't the only reason Wolf tanked in July. But it sure didn't help. They needed to completely own the day, and instead they barely showed up.
 
reverbonthemic said:
People, this isn't the only reason Wolf tanked in July. But it sure didn't help. They needed to completely own the day, and instead they barely showed up.
Click to expand...

Maybe it was because certain staff members come to this board too much.
 
djdan said:
2. WOLF had been trending up (outside of mornings) since their launch in December. In July they were cut it half. Is that a one month fluke or the beginning of something more. Next few trends will tell.
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FITZ: 'Who's better than you!?!' EVERYBODY! ;)

I have no idea why I get such a kick out of this... lol
 
Yes I have a nice, cold plate of crow here for Mamaknowsbest and Takeitfromme on their predictions. Bon Apetit'!
 
Not sure what you mean dude. Six months ago I predicted big changes and
growth at the WOLF, KLSY, JACK and KBKS. A new breed of talent and PD's.
Let's see what has happened:

1. WOLF has had 5-6 six up trends and an up Winter and Spring book. Seems good to me. KMPS is off 20% in ratings and billing for the year. Good battle.

2. KLSY flips to MOVIN and each of its trends were better than any trend of KLSY. They launched well and will add airstaff.

3. KBKS named a new PD, revamped mornings somewhat and have a new afternoon show. We shall see what happens. Might bet is by Fall they get stronger, even without a morning show flip.

4. JACK is off, I'll admit that. Now is the time to add airstaff and move forward. JACK is being held back because INFINITY has to spend so much money defending KMPS and KBKS.

Seems like I was pretty accurate in analyzing the market, even though I haven't been here a decade. Biggest miss was in mornings, where the older morning shows have a much more loyal following. Doesn't mean change isn't in the air, but it just may take more time.
 
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