The final leg of the Summer ratings period, September, is the missing variable at this point. But knowing how good or bad a station did in June, the month that's falling off, assists in making predictions. Based on that...
103.5 KISF will have a HUGE summer book. Obscene 18-34 and AM drive numbers. Also #1 25-54. This market needs another young end Spanish station, maybe even two more (at least from a ratings perspective, I'm not sure if the revenue is there). KWID will also do well, they will beat KRGT (unlike some markets where Univision wins when they put on a gold based competitior against PRECIOSA).
I will predict that SUNNY will be #2 25-54. Normally Summer is the worst book of the year for SUNNY and the AC format nationally. 2006 will be different, at least locally, KSNE will thrive. This will be a great lead in to their always HUGE Fall books, especially when the holiday music kicks in.
While I'm almost certain that KISF-KSNE will finish #1 and #2, September will play a huge role in how the other stations rank, especially considering in the last trend only a point seperated the #3 and #8 stations.
KMXB will be dropping off an awesome June where they were #1 both 25-54 and 18-34, In fact it was one of their best months in history 18-34. After losing that month. MIX will almost certainly trend down.
JACK will be dropping off a soft June , if September was decent KKJJ will be #3 or #4 overall and #2 English language behind SUNNY.
In the Country race, COYOTE will be dropping off a horrific June where they barely showed up at all. KWNR won July, KCYE won August (with unusually high TSL), it will all come down to September.
KOMP will be dropping off a poor month, so they should do well. KKLZ will be dropping off the single worst month in their 20 year history. Even so, KKLZ will still do poorly, however this could push KXTE down into last place of all the full strength signals.
KOAS will be dropping off a great month, they will probably go down.
It will be interesting to see the early impact of the PARTY format flip. Which, if any, stations did PARTY hurt and where did the former KOOL listeners scatter towards. KOOL had quite a large audience 35-64. Of course it will take a few months to get a feel for how things settled.
Finally, as much as we talk about AM stations on this board, none of them will do good in the money demos. Yes KXNT will once again be by far the highest rated AM, but they will take a hit from Spring to Summer.
103.5 KISF will have a HUGE summer book. Obscene 18-34 and AM drive numbers. Also #1 25-54. This market needs another young end Spanish station, maybe even two more (at least from a ratings perspective, I'm not sure if the revenue is there). KWID will also do well, they will beat KRGT (unlike some markets where Univision wins when they put on a gold based competitior against PRECIOSA).
I will predict that SUNNY will be #2 25-54. Normally Summer is the worst book of the year for SUNNY and the AC format nationally. 2006 will be different, at least locally, KSNE will thrive. This will be a great lead in to their always HUGE Fall books, especially when the holiday music kicks in.
While I'm almost certain that KISF-KSNE will finish #1 and #2, September will play a huge role in how the other stations rank, especially considering in the last trend only a point seperated the #3 and #8 stations.
KMXB will be dropping off an awesome June where they were #1 both 25-54 and 18-34, In fact it was one of their best months in history 18-34. After losing that month. MIX will almost certainly trend down.
JACK will be dropping off a soft June , if September was decent KKJJ will be #3 or #4 overall and #2 English language behind SUNNY.
In the Country race, COYOTE will be dropping off a horrific June where they barely showed up at all. KWNR won July, KCYE won August (with unusually high TSL), it will all come down to September.
KOMP will be dropping off a poor month, so they should do well. KKLZ will be dropping off the single worst month in their 20 year history. Even so, KKLZ will still do poorly, however this could push KXTE down into last place of all the full strength signals.
KOAS will be dropping off a great month, they will probably go down.
It will be interesting to see the early impact of the PARTY format flip. Which, if any, stations did PARTY hurt and where did the former KOOL listeners scatter towards. KOOL had quite a large audience 35-64. Of course it will take a few months to get a feel for how things settled.
Finally, as much as we talk about AM stations on this board, none of them will do good in the money demos. Yes KXNT will once again be by far the highest rated AM, but they will take a hit from Spring to Summer.