Talk Radio Scoreboard for Large Markets: June 2014

[TheBigA]

Everybody tells that to investors. Legal boilerplate. Doesn't mean the executive ego and hubris doesn't blind them to reality.

Anyone who deals with the money knows it's the truth. The ones who choose to ignore it are the ones for whom the money just shows up. But if you're one of the people involved in the exchange of money, you know it's a crapshoot. And you know why. For the same reason as owning a restaurant is a crapshoot. Or starting ANY business is a crapshoot. And sure you want to put on the confident appearance. But inside, you know the reality.

 

[L Chanon Gade]

Yep, ask those luck folk who bought Citadel shares a decade ago.

Chan.

 

[L Chanon Gade]

It's what reasonable, courteous people do.... isn't it?

Have you worked as a salesman... such as in radio advertising? Commercial Real Estate?

You learn everything thing about a client and his/her business you can before you formulate your sales story.

Why would I not give the same courtesy to you or to SMG or to anyone else in this discussion group that I want to have conversation with?

Forgive my bluntness -this isn't a seller-buyer relationship. It is nothing more than an exchange of opinions. Neither of us need provide provenance. Neither needs to study the other.

Somewhere I recall hearing "I'm OK, you're OK". OK?

Chan.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I have never - ever - met or dealt with real estate or ad salesmen like that. Car salesmen? Forget about it. Selling is all about psychological bullying; controlling the other guy.

And I've overheard those harrangues - I mean "sales meetings" - and I never heard one word about getting to know the client.

That's a real shame. Yes, I've met the misguided losers that you focus on, but I've worked for and with some really great sales people that you seem to be sure don't exist. But what I learned is that I don't have enough of the "blood instinct" on when to move in for the kill. Even with all the greatest wholesome and positive sales skills in the world, your brain does have to be wired in such a way you know the right moment and the right way to ask for the order. So, when I work in sales... I'm just so-so.

But I worked as Computer System Administrator for the man who at the time owned more Chevy stores than any other person in the universe. And every day it seemed, I had a sales person knocking on my door wanting a prospect list. Who do you want on your list? Describe the people that I should find out there in the computer files somewhere. The "losers" just said: "Huh? Just give me a list! I will call them all. I will send a post card to them all." But then, there were the top-of-the-pile sales folks. They were the folks who said: "Genius, a good customer fits this profile. Find THESE people for me!" And the person would list the attributes of the people they wanted on their prospecting list.

The absolutely most successful broadcaster I ever sold for would not tolerate bullying. In fact, we had guidelines on when to just look at the merchant and say: "It's been nice visiting with you" and then do an about face and leave the premises. (We were a small market where EVERYTHING was advertising by local retailers.)

In small town America, if your car breaks down and has to be towed away, everyone in town will know about it. If you cheat on your wife, everybody in town will know about it. If you as a salesman try to bully customers, everybody in town will know about it.

I have good news and I have bad news: Most of us don't live in and work in small towns anymore. (that's the good news, that's the bad news.)

You know what is wrong with the conversations all too often at Radio Discussions? We have too many people who see only the bad and the ugly, and not enough people who recognize some really good stuff happening around them. Now tell me again... which one of those groups are you in? I forgot.

 

[FredLeonard]

I have spent time in some small towns, GRC. Most of them are nothing like Mayberry or Lake Wobegon.

I saw "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly." It was mostly about the last two. Good is not spread evenly through the population. Neither are bad and ugly. Each tends to occur in clusters. In my experience, radio today and the people in it tend to come in bad and ugly clusters. Explains why the industry is in such bad shape. And why talk radio is the way it is.

I do wish you "rose colored glasses" types wouldn't get so all-fired self-righteous about how you see the glass as half full and make lemonade.

You said you didn't pursue a sales career because you lacked the "blood instinct" to "go for the kill." That sounds like exactly what I was talking about in describing the nature of selling and salesmen.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

You said you didn't pursue a sales career because you lacked the "blood instinct" to "go for the kill." That sounds like exactly what I was talking about in describing the nature of selling and salesmen.

No, there is a difference. I don't have the vocabulary to express the differences so that people who have not been "out on the street" would understand. A few years ago I had an Aha! moment. My father had died and I had gone to the Ozarks to assist in settling the estate. He had a modest little "upland farm" and I needed to know what it was worth. (The next door neighbor wanted to buy it. We just needed to come up with an equitable price.) I talked with some people in town in real estate and I was getting nowhere in understanding the values. Then someone pointed me to an "investor" across the mountain who for years had purchased such farms, but was aging and no longer was much of a buyer. So I pointed my car his direction and found myself travelling the same road I had driven over 30 years ago when I built the radio station in our home town. I was on my way to see a man I tried to sell advertising to 30 years ago.

I had no appointment, I walked into his petroleum distributorship and announced my purpose for being there.
"I don't buy land anymore."
I'm not trying to sell you land.
"I quit buying land."
I just want you tell me what my land would be worth.... IF YOU WERE buying land. They tell me YOU are the expert.
"Does it have a modern house."
Yeah, built about 30 years ago.

That broke him up. Modern house... 30 years ago?

Well how many farms have you purchased that had a house that was 60, 70, 80 years old and people were living in it? This one was build NEW with PLUMBING in it... not like the one that burned down 30 years ago that had a bathroom hanging on the side of the house like a tool shed.

He laughed, gave me some pricing guidelines, shook my hand and sent me on my way.

30 years ago I couldn't have done that. He would have stood up and let me know that was HIS office and we would talk on HIS terms and he didn't want to hear my terms on how to converse. At least, as a young country boy I would have seen it that way.

As I drove an old familiar rode back across the mountain that I had traveled oh so many times I found myself muttering: "Damn, if I had it to do over again today, I'LL BET I COULD SELL HIM ADVERTISING, TOO."

Neither of us engaged in any of the behavior you described as being bad-boy behavior by sales people. We were both patient. We both understood we had a short meeting to conduct and get on our way, and we negotiated our way to a happy ending.

Who ever he went to lunch with that day, I suspect he told them the story of The Modern House and the two of them had a good laugh. And I suspect he did not complain about the obnoxious, pushy guy who had been in his office earlier that day.

P.S. I took over the sales territory at a couple of stations and called on customers who were anxious to know what their past sales rep was doing, how was he doing, and would I say hello for them. In both cases they had been excellent producers of revenue for the station. NEVER did anyone I called on in those two circumstances ever say to me: "That last salesman was a JERK. I'm glad he is gone. I was tired of him."

 

[davideduardo]

What's always amazed me is how little people who work in the rank and file or trenches of broadcasting (or any business) know about their business, their craft or their industry. Here is a business in which most everyone claims an expert opinion but which is addicted to hiring consultants. Even with inside experts and outside consultants, the industry's batting average of success is worse than organized baseball. The failure rate rivals new restaurants.

The "rank and file" in any industry or business or even government department seldom know or understand the "big picture". They are specialists who put doors on new cars, file legal documents at the DOJ or keep the H&BA aisle stocked at the supermarket. Outside of work, they more than likely follow sports or fashion or the Kardashians, not The Economist or even the trade journals of the business of their employer.

Why would you expect the bulk of people in radio to be any different.

No question mark; this is a statement about your attitude.

But just as the door installer knows a lot about fitting doors, the on-air person in radio knows a lot about their trade and their listeners. While few people in the population care about car door hinges, a large number are interested in people in the media. They are clearly much closer to being public figures than most members of the national workforce. So their opinions are interesting, even if we do not always agree with their points of view. In a sense, they are expected to have opinions and to express them.

What I don't understand is your statement about consultants. There are, in fact, fewer consultants active in radio today than at any time since, perhaps, the 60's an 70's. And this is despite there being at least three times the number of stations today as there were in 1960.

Perhaps radio should be getting more outside opinions. After all, we go to doctors if we are sick... and doctors are health consultants. We go to a tax accountant or service to do our IRS returns... and they are tax consultants.

The industry's batting average is no different than it has been since the major transformations in product in the mid-50's. Some stations increase ratings and revenue, some maintain their position, and others go down. There are more players on the field, but the dynamic is the same. And, interestingly, whether with 5000 stations in 1960 or 15,000 stations in 2014, we find that just about half of all radio stations do not show a profit. But unlike failing restaurants, radio stations tend to find new owners who will try, again, to make the franchise profitable.

So I don't understand the statement about the batting average nor do I understand the one about restaurants. On what do you base this opinion? What examples or statistics can you cite to make your point? If you can't answer this, then you confirm yourself to be a disgruntled person firing potshots from the outside with no factual knowledge.

 

[FredLeonard]

David Eduardo: There are far more restaurants than radio stations. But anyone paying the least attention knows how many flips radio stations in any market have gone through over the past decades - often multiple flips on any given station - and how much tweaking gets done to existing formats. And still the state of the industry continues to decline. How many flips and tweaks have ever made things better? Damn few.

Obviously, on-air people's knowledge of their listeners is lacking - so is that of programmers. And how can on-people be expected to know about their listeners when communication is one-way. One-way communication is what draws so many of these people to radio in the first place.

But if your standard of success is no worse than before, the industry is really in trouble (and the bar for programmers is set really low).

Also you standard for try again is pretty low. Restaurants fail. Owners leave when their lease is up. Hope springs eternal and somebody else rents the space and starts another restaurant. A radio license is pretty much like a lease on commercial space for a restaurant. A new restaurant owner has new menu, new name, new staff, new decor, same address. A new station owner often has new format, new staff, new calls, same dial position. Not much different.

 

[Avid Listener]

It's what reasonable, courteous people do.... isn't it?

Have you worked as a salesman... such as in radio advertising? Commercial Real Estate?

You learn everything thing about a client and his/her business you can before you formulate your sales story.

Why would I not give the same courtesy to you or to SMG or to anyone else in this discussion group that I want to have conversation with?

No, that's not "reasonable", that's downright creepy, in a stalker sort of way. In forums like this, people generally respond to posts, not the people who made the posts. After a while, one might start to recognize certain individuals, especially the ones you have to delete formatting codes in their posts if you quote them. But generally speaking, in forums like this, it's the post that gets the replies. In some forums where I've very active, I've been known to get into the verbal equivalent of a knock-down, drag-out with someone in one thread, and nothing but cheerful agreement with the same person in a different thread.

Some things I learned about forums like this a long time ago:

● Every post is written for everyone in the entire forum to read, not just the person whose post you're quoting in a reply.

● Everyone participating a thread is free to respond to any post, regardless of whose name is in the quoted portion of the reply.

● It really doesn't matter all that much who said something, what really matters is what was said.

I think those same principles should also apply to callers who manage to get through on a radio talk show.

 

[davideduardo]

David Eduardo: There are far more restaurants than radio stations.

Then why did you bring restaurants into the discussion?

But anyone paying the least attention knows how many flips radio stations in any market have gone through over the past decades - often multiple flips on any given station - and how much tweaking gets done to existing formats. And still the state of the industry continues to decline. How many flips and tweaks have ever made things better? Damn few.

Flips divide into two categories.

One is caused when a station's existing format is in decline, due perhaps a national trend or a local condition such as too many stations going after a similar segment. One example of this was the change in the mid to late 80's of about 700 Beautiful Music stations to other formats as this format gradually died. Another is the increase in country stations in "Urban Cowboy to Garth" era when there was a growth in country listening. When this listening declined, many markets with multiple country stations lost one of them. Still another example is with the change of "oldies" stations to "classic hits" stations, substituting 70's and 80's music for 60's music. Yet another was the crashing of Smooth Jazz over the last 10 years due to aging of the listener base and changes in music taste.

The other broad area for format flips is that of changes in the competitive environment. Some classic rockers and hot talkers were sustained by having Stern in the mornings. When Stern left for satellite, quite a few could not sustain the overall format without the cume magnet of the morning show, and changed format. Other stations, sometimes well performing ones, got new competitors who flanked them enough to make the station no longer as profitable, with a change often bringing improved revenues. Sometimes a new format offers better opportunities; all sports as pioneered by Emmis turned out to be an enormously profitable segment and sometimes quite profitable stations were switched in order to preempt the possibility of a competitor seizing the position. And there are cases where a format that looked good did not play in a particular market and needed to be replaced.

In each case, stations are simply trying to offer a product with more appeal in the competitive marketplace. If you look in your local supermarket or drugstore, you will likely find that there are thousands of items that were not there 20 years ago, and many of the ones we know from the past are modified in some manner, ranging from packaging to ingredients and usage.

Tastes change, music trends change, styles of announcing change. So formats have to both be tweaked constantly or changed when they are no longer viable.

I do not know why you think format tweaking is bad. It's not. It's good, because the station that tweaks is reacting to changes in audience needs and tastes. When I managed and owned stations, I zero-based each operation twice a year to confirm what we were doing or find areas where instant change was needed; such zero-basing was usually done in a full day session off premises with all department heads and creative staff and preparation took several weeks. I often called in outside sociologists and such to offer guidance about societal attitudes and trends.

Obviously, on-air people's knowledge of their listeners is lacking - so is that of programmers. And how can on-people be expected to know about their listeners when communication is one-way. One-way communication is what draws so many of these people to radio in the first place.

You assume this but offer no proof. Engaged talent talk and text with listeners every day, and likely interact via FB and Twitter and other social media sites. They do station events and community events and shows. Programmers are constantly looking at all kinds of broad consumer research as well as using their own experiences in the market. They don't live in a vacuum, and with social media, radio is very interactive.

But if your standard of success is no worse than before, the industry is really in trouble (and the bar for programmers is set really low).

The standard for success is constantly revised. In many markets, the fruit of Docket 80-90 redefined expectations for revenue and ratings, and the economy constantly determines new standards, particularly in the last 6 to 7 years of recession and low recovery. Of course, new media redefines it in many ways, with transitioning AM and FM to new platforms making the future far less certain than before. Yet, through this all revenue for the industry has gone from about $12 billion in 2008 to a projected $17 billion this year.

 

[FredLeonard]

Then why did you bring restaurants into the discussion?

Foolish me. I thought you'd appreciate metaphorical reasoning. Creative people usually do. Apparently not the linear, authoritarian types who now infest radio.

 

[davideduardo]

Foolish me. I thought you'd appreciate metaphorical reasoning. Creative people usually do. Apparently not the linear, authoritarian types who now infest radio.

There is no metaphor here. Restaurants can be opened nearly at will, while markets have a finite number of OTA radio "slots" on the dial.

A metaphor is something that is symbolic of something else.

In a restaurant, the customer is the consumer. In radio there are different sets of customers and they are generally not consumers. Anyone with some money who can lift a few permits can open a restaurant; radio requires the acquisition of an expensive existing permit in almost all cases... and so on. There is little metaphorical between radio and restaurants.

And if you look at the fate of restaurants, the majority of those that fail do so because they were under capitalized or the owners had no business skills. A failed restaurant is a liability with leases to pay off, etc. A failed station retains most of its value due to the underlying value of the license.

I did a college thesis about the metaphors and the underlying allegory of Don Quixote de la Mancha, Cervantes was a master of both. You aren't.

So, tell us all the creative things you have done in radio. And, speaking of Cervantes, here is one of mine http://www.davidgleason.com/1979-Z-93-Puerto-Rico.htm

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

No, that's not "reasonable", that's downright creepy, in a stalker sort of way. In forums like this, people generally respond to posts, not the people who made the posts. After a while, one might start to recognize certain individuals, especially the ones you have to delete formatting codes in their posts if you quote them. But generally speaking, in forums like this, it's the post that gets the replies. In some forums where I've very active, I've been known to get into the verbal equivalent of a knock-down, drag-out with someone in one thread, and nothing but cheerful agreement with the same person in a different thread.

Maybe this is a topic that deserves additional discussion. Buy if so, it probably doesn't belong in the middle of THIS thread. I have taken some bits from this thread and created a brand new, stand-alone thread for such a discussion.


Link to NEW thread