Talk Radio, V.2014

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

In the various forums for MARKETS people are starting threads about what their local stations might shuffle around if the spat between Limbaugh and Cumulus goes "trainwreck mode". What currently secondary station might move the chairs around and make room for El Rushbo. Every market has a different combination of players so such a scenario could play out many different ways.

I ask the question a slightly different way... looking at the national scene. Assume for a moment that after all the posturing and negotiating, Rush send Rochester down stairs to look in the vault that he bought from Jack Benny, and then talks to the accountants, the retirement advisors, and a few close friends, and decides on some 'date-certain' (Jan 1 or later) to just hang it up. Send the Golden EIB Microphone down to the local trophy shop for a proper mounting and resting place.

(We could have another thread to discuss what Rush does with his time and talents(s) going forward.)

What would the industry do?

Big corporations often have mandatory retirement policies so that great talent down one, two, three or more layers in the management pyramid get a promotion rather than taking their talent to some other company. Would Talk Radio enjoy a great re-invigoration if suddenly 2nd, 3rd and 4th string Talkers found new wiggle-room to move up a rung or two?

Would ONE talker rise to the top and dominate Talk Radio in a fashion similar to the last 20 years for Rush?

Would radio management do like some folks do following a divorce and say: Never getting married again!!!! "There was a time when the money from carrying Rush was great, so we put up with the heat, the flame, the blow-back that went with the genre." Would radio seek to reshape and minimize the blow-back that can result from talk radio?

Are we over-thinking the amount of change, disruption, up-upheaval that would result from a Rush Retirement?

Where do you see Talk Radio five years from now... assuming an exit by Rush in the near future.

(Later on we can have another thread: If Rush stays and stays and stays... and becomes... like me.... a troublesome, cranky old man, on what schedule, on what terms does he finally get shown the exit.... 2 years, 8 years 15 years from now.)

 

[Ultimajock]

Rush send Rochester down stairs to look in the vault that he bought from Jack Benny

...Rochester would never work for Limbaugh, and Joan Benny would never sell any of her father's estate holdings to him, either ;D ...

 

[boombox]

My feeling is that talk radio will still be around. There would probably be a re-tooling of talk radio, but I don't think it's going to disappear.

 

[umfan]

Since the environment that allowed Rush to be brought to national syndication in the first place has markedly changed, there is no bench from which to pull proven talent from.

What would the industry do? Cumulus provides the answer with what they've done with Mike Huckabee.

Instead of having broadcasters at the local level who know how to build an audience, how to speak to topics that appeal to that audience, a big name would be brought in and placed in front of a mic. The name would draw some listeners, but would likely not be successful over the long haul.

Limbaugh built his national show. He knew how to do this because he had already done it. Remember in 1989 when he was on the air less than a year, he challeneged then Mayor of Malibu, CA, Martin Sheen to take in the homeless as he promised. Here's an old article on that:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...WIhAAAAIBAJ&sjid=cIgFAAAAIBAJ&pg=3974,6433440

Stunts like this brought him attention. His lead ins to 'updates' were funny and made people want to listen. Like him or not, the guy has talent as an entertainer and broadcaster. This would be lacking in a political suit, most likely.

So, to bottom line this, the industry would try to replace him with another syndicated show. The show isn't likely to succeed. Unless the industry starts investing in the 'farm system' when the current lineup of talkers does hang it up, no one will replace them effectively and the format will wither.

 

[smedge2006]

Compare the transition from Howard Stern to David Lee Roth. It killed hot talk in most of this country. The format survives only in a few Florida markets.

 

[umfan]

A very apt comparison.

 

[fmradio1]

Howard Stern was the driver behind "Hot Talk." Once he was gone, that was the end of the format. Limbaugh built the modern model of conservative, issue-oriented talk. Like with Hot Talk, the other major talkers came up behind him and filled different dayparts to make it a 24/7 format. Then the second and third tier talkers came up for operators who wanted to do it on the cheap. My guess is once Rush is gone, whether CC doesn't re-sign him, he leaves on his own for the internet, or retires....that will essentially be the beginning of the end of political talk radio as we know it. Beck is halfway to the internet as it is. Savage has fallen off the map. Who's left? Hannity? Levin? Jerry freekin' Doyle? Can any of those guys pick up the torch and move into the future? Heck NO!

The cumes are already low and the demos suck. There are no hot, young talented talkers who can keep the franchise going for another 20 years waiting in the wings. Talk radio will attempt to soldier on as a shell of it's former self for awhile following Rush's departure, but it will never be what it was in the 90's and early 2000's. It's the beginning of the long, slow goodbye.

 

[mescutia]

I agree with boombox: Talk radio will still be around, but will be retooled.

But political talk radio? That's another story entirely.

 

[ProducerGuy]

There will never be another Rush. Hannity will likely be the most listened to show when Rush retires, but no one on the second/third tier will rise up. They're on the second and third tiers because they're not as good.

What would I like to see? Hot talk make a return. Blow out the older demo completely and get some of those younger listeners back from sports talk. What will we actually see? Rush's spot split between 3 or 4 lower level guys that do a Rush impersonation. Each guy will get 100 or so stations. Sort of what CBS tried when Howard quit. They split his stations up between Corolla, David Lee Roth/O&A, and Rover. A guy with 100 stations is a lot easier to control than a guy with 600.

 

[mightynine]

Hannity must get on his knees every night and thank whatever he worships that he gets a lead-in on radio and TV from the leaders in their respective formats. He does not move the needle on his own, but I imagine he would be the first in line to slide up to 12 when Rush is no longer there, there's no one else. For a moment I thought Beck was getting hotter than Hannity, but then he went off to build his own media "empire", and every time I turn on his radio show, it's someone other than him talking.

Rush's listeners would move on, scatter a bit like when Carson retired. Political talk radio would continue to lurch about, but with fewer ratings and revenue. The stations who built around strong local hosts will survive, but how many of those remain, and would still be there in the end? I also see many stations dumping the format post-Rush - or at least dumping whatever staff was associated with it and trying their best to hang on with the die-hards who would listen to anything conservative off the bird.

The talk format will go through some change. Someone would use it as a fresh start to blow out the listeners and try something new, something more overtly entertaining than political entertainment. If you think higher-ups aren't thinking about this following the 2012 election, you're wrong. But I don't think anything truly different will develop until Rush has packed up the golden mic.