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Target On Your Back

Work in radio? News-talk? Programmer? Jock? Morning guy/woman/team? Promotions genius? You’ll love this.
<blockquote>
From Radio & Records, December 8, 2005

During the second day of the annual Arbitron Consultant's Fly-In, Arbitron VP John Snyder delivered an eye-opening presentation based on results from the company's ongoing Houston trial that demonstrated how the PPM can expose the immediate effects certain programming has on listening.
One example showed the steady drop-off one station saw after changing its morning show team; share had been a steady, weekly 0.9 before the switch, and dropped off steadily each week during the first month of the new team. Snyder said that example should serve as a warning against waiting too long to make changes if a show isn't working.
</blockquote>

-Nice. Hire a new morning team, give ‘em a month and blow ‘em out if it’s ‘not working.’ Next!
<blockquote>
Snyder also stressed that the reliability of data recorded by the PPM can help stations more accurately measure how certain promotions and special content, like interviews and guest appearances, are working out. He pointed to big jumps in ratings that one Houston station recorded during a concert ticket giveaway; while cume stayed about the same, ratings rose at the times of day when tickets were being handed out. He also pointed out the immediate ratings jump one AC station saw after launching a direct mail and telephone marketing campaign. On the flip side, he showed how one station's ratings were damaged by a weeklong charity fundraiser it held.</blockquote>

So much for public service and “broadcasting in the public interest, convenience and necessity”
<blockquote>
In the end, Snyder said the PPM can track these kinds of results more accurately than Arbitron's current diary system, and said the radio industry must move towards electronic measurement if it wants to compete against other media with more modern measurement systems. "How does radio get better with better measurement? By giving the people who spend what they want," he said. "Ask yourselves, 'Over next five years, is it possible that nothing will do more for the health of radio than better measurement?'"</blockquote>

As to the mental health of the programmers, jocks and support personnel, that’s another story. Half the people in radio are certifiably neurotic as it is. The PPM may make the remaining 50% equally neurotic.

Read a story like this from a trade rag and you can easily envision the day when jocks are completely replaced by big-voiced promos and bumpers hacking up trite slogans and positioning statements put together by one mad scientist PD sitting in his office with Selector, Pro-Tools and AudioVault, working desperately to keep his gig. Ya’ gotta love technology. “We have found the enemy and they is us.”
 
Lies, Damnable Lies, and Arbitron

> Read a story like this from a trade rag and you can easily
> envision the day when jocks are completely replaced by
> big-voiced promos and bumpers hacking up trite slogans and
> positioning statements put together by one mad scientist PD
> sitting in his office with Selector, Pro-Tools and
> AudioVault, working desperately to keep his gig.

Too late. You've just described Jack, which is eroding in Toronto faster than Prime Minister Paul Martin's support for the Bush administration.

Welcome to the world of instant analysis, where "trends" become "dailies". TV has been under the spotlight of overnight ratings for years, which is one reason we get CSI, CSI: Miami, CSI: NY and the Law & Order franchise instead of original programming.

Programmers will have to adjust to new pressures. Would Seinfeld have been successful based on its first two seasons? Unlikely in today's environment.

Radio is being battered by satellite, Internet streams, and syndicated programming. According to the ratings, success is still spelled "Live and Local". Radio stations that are consistently well programmed and have identifiable personalities outperform the jukeboxes.

Will the PPM allow programmers to tweak formats more effectively? Perhaps. Will the PPM make promotions people crazy? Undoubtedly. Can the PPM measure the long-term good will built by events that help the community? Doubtful. Can the PPM tell us that the way we do a charity fundraiser needs to be rethought? Definitely.

What will happen when the PPM determines that the barrage of "HUGE" commercials causes the masses to punch a different button on their tuner? Or, that 8 minute stopsets cause listeners to flee in droves? Will management start refusing to take Billy's bucks? Will corporate issue an edict to reduce the length and number of units in stopsets? Will programmers try more and shorter stopsets instead of longer blocks 2 or 3 times an hour? Or, sell the sponsorship of a block of time to a single advertiser instead of running traditional commercials? Maybe even sponsor the "Hot Song of the Day"? Every time you hear "Bobby & the BeeKeepers", you get "brought to you by Billy Fucillo" over the intro? The PPM may yield some interesting results.

Overall, it's a brave new world. Adjustments will have to be made by programmers, management, and sales people when the PPM comes to a listener near you.
 
Satellite radio here-we-come!

As a radio industry participant, I am not happy about this......but as a shareholder in satellite radio, I am thrilled. Anything that causes "regular" radio to more quickly implode is only to satellite's advantage. Nothing like giving shows LESS time to work, when the conventional wisdom (by those in the know) is that good shows often can take time to grow legs. Even the notoriously impatient television industry knows that.

Be careful how you weigh the oh-so absolute interpretations of an egg-head statistician. If everything was governed by raw numbers, we would live in a very different world.
 
Re: Lies, Damnable Lies, and Arbitron

Jack Toronto: 2.3 morning share, before eliminating Jocks. The morning drive ratings after letting the morning team go, 1.7 and hopefully falling.
If I wanted no morning dj, I'd buy an Ipod alarm clock or something! Sheesh!
>
> Too late. You've just described Jack, which is eroding in
> Toronto faster than Prime Minister Paul Martin's support for
> the Bush administration.
>
> Welcome to the world of instant analysis, where "trends"
> become "dailies". TV has been under the spotlight of
> overnight ratings for years, which is one reason we get CSI,
> CSI: Miami, CSI: NY and the Law & Order franchise instead of
> original programming.
>
> Programmers will have to adjust to new pressures. Would
> Seinfeld have been successful based on its first two
> seasons? Unlikely in today's environment.
>
> Radio is being battered by satellite, Internet streams, and
> syndicated programming. According to the ratings, success is
> still spelled "Live and Local". Radio stations that are
> consistently well programmed and have identifiable
> personalities outperform the jukeboxes.
>
> Will the PPM allow programmers to tweak formats more
> effectively? Perhaps. Will the PPM make promotions people
> crazy? Undoubtedly. Can the PPM measure the long-term good
> will built by events that help the community? Doubtful. Can
> the PPM tell us that the way we do a charity fundraiser
> needs to be rethought? Definitely.
>
> What will happen when the PPM determines that the barrage of
> "HUGE" commercials causes the masses to punch a different
> button on their tuner? Or, that 8 minute stopsets cause
> listeners to flee in droves? Will management start refusing
> to take Billy's bucks? Will corporate issue an edict to
> reduce the length and number of units in stopsets? Will
> programmers try more and shorter stopsets instead of longer
> blocks 2 or 3 times an hour? Or, sell the sponsorship of a
> block of time to a single advertiser instead of running
> traditional commercials? Maybe even sponsor the "Hot Song of
> the Day"? Every time you hear "Bobby & the BeeKeepers", you
> get "brought to you by Billy Fucillo" over the intro? The
> PPM may yield some interesting results.
>
> Overall, it's a brave new world. Adjustments will have to be
> made by programmers, management, and sales people when the
> PPM comes to a listener near you.
>
<P ID="signature">______________
"If you never say NO, How much is your YES worth?"
</P>
 
> Read a story like this from a trade rag and you can easily
> envision the day when jocks are completely replaced by
> big-voiced promos and bumpers hacking up trite slogans and
> positioning statements put together by one mad scientist PD
> sitting in his office with Selector, Pro-Tools and
> AudioVault, working desperately to keep his gig. Ya’ gotta
> love technology. “We have found the enemy and they is us.”
>
Program a station that way, and you get a 1.5 share placing dead last in the ratings in New York, a 2.5 and scraping the bottom in Buffalo and Toronto.
 
> Program a station that way, and you get a 1.5 share placing
> dead last in the ratings in New York, a 2.5 and scraping the
> bottom in Buffalo and Toronto.


2.5 is hardly scraping the bottom of the barrel in Toronto. Although it's far from #1, it's still saleable.

What bothers me here is the idea that ratings mean something on a moment by moment basis.Unless the whole concept has changed since I was last involved with programming, ratings don't even reflect what's currently on the air; they're really only a good indicator of trends from 6 months to a year earlier.

Of course, the accountant and lawyer types who make all the programming decisions these days could care less about anything but instant gratification so they can sound like they know what they're talking about when they report to the board of directors who know even less about the art of the business than the people who come up with these hare-brained schemes designed to bamboozle the biz right out of existance.
 
Re: Lies, Damnable Lies, and Arbitron

> Jack Toronto: 2.3 morning share, before eliminating Jocks.
> The morning drive ratings after letting the morning team go,
> 1.7 and hopefully falling.
> If I wanted no morning dj, I'd buy an Ipod alarm clock or
> something! Sheesh!


One can only hope the initial ratings drop will translate into disaster for this jockless concept for broadcasting. But there will be justification ONLY if the suits that run Rogers realize the move was made by a desperate programmer who now has nobody to blame for his total ineptitude but himself.

Then...and only then...will other PDs realize that they actually have to be accountable for the stations they program.
 
Or... If I may pose an unpopular opinion... If I understand this article properly the radio stations that create promotions that strike true to their audience's needs/wants, get a morning show that speaks to their lifestyle and doesn't do self-indulgent charity drives as an excuse for an entertaining promotion (Don't yell, who out there really likes a PBS pledge drive?) wins. So what else is new besides the fact that you can track it faster?

Joe Thomas
WCOJ
 
> 2.5 is hardly scraping the bottom of the barrel in Toronto.
> Although it's far from #1, it's still saleable.

Mmmm, not so sure about that, at least in the case of that particular market. Remember, Toronto has far fewer stations competing for revenue than any other market of 5 million or more population across North America. A 2.5 is therefore in relative terms a hell of a lot poorer showing than a 2.5 in New York, Boston, or even Buffalo or Rochester, because all those markets have more signals competing for listeners' attention.

> What bothers me here is the idea that ratings mean something
> on a moment by moment basis.Unless the whole concept has
> changed since I was last involved with programming, ratings
> don't even reflect what's currently on the air; they're
> really only a good indicator of trends from 6 months to a
> year earlier.

Remember as well, that Arbitron now does rolling 3-month trend reports and releases them 12 times a year, so we get a lot clearer picture of a station's direction a lot sooner than we used to back in the days when we only got quarterly reports four times a year.

> Of course, the accountant and lawyer types who make all the
> programming decisions these days could care less about
> anything but instant gratification so they can sound like
> they know what they're talking about when they report to the
> board of directors who know even less about the art of the
> business than the people who come up with these hare-brained
> schemes designed to bamboozle the biz right out of
> existance.
>
On that we agree 100%. The irony is, that mindset is costing them bigtime. When real radio pros with electrons in their blood ran the business on all levels, stations were not only better for the listener, but more consistently profitable for their owners.
 
Re: Lies, Damnable Lies, and Arbitron

> Programmers will have to adjust to new pressures. Would
> Seinfeld have been successful based on its first two
> seasons? Unlikely in today's environment.

It was unlikely in 1990 as well, but Brandon Tartikoff saw something and played a hunch by letting it build into the monster it became. A really smart programmer who'll take a calculated risk will still rise to the very top of the business. Rescuing Howard Stern from the scrapheap in 1986 was a big risk, but it made Mel Karamazin an extremely wealthy man.

> Radio is being battered by satellite, Internet streams, and
> syndicated programming. According to the ratings, success is
> still spelled "Live and Local". Radio stations that are
> consistently well programmed and have identifiable
> personalities outperform the jukeboxes.

The abject failure of Jack in New York City and its anemic performance upstate and in Toronto may be convincing people of that fact again...radio front office types need to relearn that lesson about every 20 years.

> What will happen when the PPM determines that the barrage of
> "HUGE" commercials causes the masses to punch a different
> button on their tuner? Or, that 8 minute stopsets cause
> listeners to flee in droves? Will management start refusing
> to take Billy's bucks? Will corporate issue an edict to
> reduce the length and number of units in stopsets? Will
> programmers try more and shorter stopsets instead of longer
> blocks 2 or 3 times an hour?

Bingo if you guessed that last option. Contemporary music radio will soon start sounding like it did 30 years ago, with more frequent but far shorter stopsets, and more injection of the disk jockey's presence to keep things moving along and hold listeners' attention. And it will probably start doing better in attracting and retaining listeners.
 
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