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That annoying kid might have been right.

N

NickMichaels

Not that it matters much but I was looking over some old threads that had been closed.
It looks like in the final analysis, that kid who got booted for being annoyingly optimistic about 103.1 was right.
This new trend release shows that the numbers the for 103.1 combo were deficent by 40% in the last trend.
 
> Not that it matters much but I was looking over some old
> threads that had been closed.
> It looks like in the final analysis, that kid who got booted
> for being annoyingly optimistic about 103.1 was right.

For the record, he got booted not only for being annoyingly optimistic but for excessive cluelessness (being told his interpretation is wrong, then replying as if he were right ... over and over and over) and trying to turn almost every discussion of ratings and formats into an Indie thread.

> This new trend release shows that the numbers the for 103.1
> combo were deficent by 40% in the last trend.

When you are dealing with a less-than-full market signal, there is a greater possibility of diaries landing in areas where you don't have signal. Most likely that is what happened. More diaries in no-signal areas last trend, more diaries in the signals' coverage area this trend.

That is one of the reasons why you can't take trend numbers at face value and predict the full book (as David has explained a number of times, there is a methodology that requires access to the monthly data). This is also why Indie's ratings wobble appears to be so great at times.

It really is a shame that one of the few really innovative formats in the market is on such a poor set of signals. It would be very interesting to see how it would perform with full-market coverage.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
The part he may be right about is in the current trend, it shows the last trend for indie as being 40% higher than it showed up as in the last trend.

It's hard to phrase this without using numbers but this trend indictates that last trend's 12+ for indie was actually 40% higher than was listed in the last trend.

That's kind of what he seemed to be going on about.

I'll leave it at that.






> > Not that it matters much but I was looking over some old
> > threads that had been closed.
> > It looks like in the final analysis, that kid who got
> booted
> > for being annoyingly optimistic about 103.1 was right.
>
> For the record, he got booted not only for being annoyingly
> optimistic but for excessive cluelessness (being told his
> interpretation is wrong, then replying as if he were right
> ... over and over and over) and trying to turn almost every
> discussion of ratings and formats into an Indie thread.
>
> > This new trend release shows that the numbers the for
> 103.1
> > combo were deficent by 40% in the last trend.
>
> When you are dealing with a less-than-full market signal,
> there is a greater possibility of diaries landing in areas
> where you don't have signal. Most likely that is what
> happened. More diaries in no-signal areas last trend, more
> diaries in the signals' coverage area this trend.
>
> That is one of the reasons why you can't take trend numbers
> at face value and predict the full book (as David has
> explained a number of times, there is a methodology that
> requires access to the monthly data). This is also why
> Indie's ratings wobble appears to be so great at times.
>
> It really is a shame that one of the few really innovative
> formats in the market is on such a poor set of signals. It
> would be very interesting to see how it would perform with
> full-market coverage.
>
 
> It really is a shame that one of the few really innovative
> formats in the market is on such a poor set of signals. It
> would be very interesting to see how it would perform with
> full-market coverage.
>
Yeah, like 98.7.

Hey, was on of the Indie signals CD 103 at one time? If so, I guess this is not the first time they've been an alternative format (uh, if I'm right?)
If I'm wrong, just forget I wrote the whole message...
 
> The part he may be right about is in the current trend, it
> shows the last trend for indie as being 40% higher than it
> showed up as in the last trend.
>
> It's hard to phrase this without using numbers but this
> trend indictates that last trend's 12+ for indie was
> actually 40% higher than was listed in the last trend.
>
> That's kind of what he seemed to be going on about.
>
> I'll leave it at that.
>
>
>
>

>
> > > Not that it matters much but I was looking over some old
>
> > > threads that had been closed.
> > > It looks like in the final analysis, that kid who got
> > booted
> > > for being annoyingly optimistic about 103.1 was right.
> >
> > For the record, he got booted not only for being
> annoyingly
> > optimistic but for excessive cluelessness (being told his
> > interpretation is wrong, then replying as if he were right
>
> > ... over and over and over) and trying to turn almost
> every
> > discussion of ratings and formats into an Indie thread.
> >
> > > This new trend release shows that the numbers the for
> > 103.1
> > > combo were deficent by 40% in the last trend.
> >
> > When you are dealing with a less-than-full market signal,
> > there is a greater possibility of diaries landing in areas
>
> > where you don't have signal. Most likely that is what
> > happened. More diaries in no-signal areas last trend,
> more
> > diaries in the signals' coverage area this trend.
> >
> > That is one of the reasons why you can't take trend
> numbers
> > at face value and predict the full book (as David has
> > explained a number of times, there is a methodology that
> > requires access to the monthly data). This is also why
> > Indie's ratings wobble appears to be so great at times.
> >
> > It really is a shame that one of the few really innovative
>
> > formats in the market is on such a poor set of signals.
> It
> > would be very interesting to see how it would perform with
>
> > full-market coverage.
> >
>


K.M. is actually right. Every station in the market wobbles - depending on monthly diary placement. That's why Arbitron doesn't endorse extrapolating numbers - because they are unweighted. For example, the L.A. market is broken into different regions. They have a target sample for each one. In July, when Indie did poor, they had a low return of non-ethnic. But in August, they likelu had a strong return in Orange County and the Westside where Indie's signal is strong - so Indie bounced back. Plus, they ultimately will weight them when the book comes out. You MUST look at book-to-book.
 
You're missing my point.
Read carefully, it's hard to make my point without saying numbers.

Go back and look at the numbers from the previous phase.

In this current release Arbitron CHANGED the numbers for the 103.1 combo for the previous phase.
That change put Indie 40% higher than originally listed in the previous phase.

Previous phase for 103.1 12+ is now being listed 40% higher than it was when the phase was originally released, which is exactly what that kid said would happen.

So 103.1 didn't bounce back from last phase. They were actually a tenth higher in the last phase, which was equal to what they were in the previous book.



> K.M. is actually right. Every station in the market wobbles
> - depending on monthly diary placement. That's why Arbitron
> doesn't endorse extrapolating numbers - because they are
> unweighted. For example, the L.A. market is broken into
> different regions. They have a target sample for each one.
> In July, when Indie did poor, they had a low return of
> non-ethnic. But in August, they likelu had a strong return
> in Orange County and the Westside where Indie's signal is
> strong - so Indie bounced back. Plus, they ultimately will
> weight them when the book comes out. You MUST look at
> book-to-book.
>
 
> In this current release Arbitron CHANGED the numbers for the
> 103.1 combo for the previous phase.
> That change put Indie 40% higher than originally listed in
> the previous phase.
>
> Previous phase for 103.1 12+ is now being listed 40% higher
> than it was when the phase was originally released, which is
> exactly what that kid said would happen.
>
> So 103.1 didn't bounce back from last phase. They were
> actually a tenth higher in the last phase, which was equal
> to what they were in the previous book.

You sound just like the kid.

It was discussed (to death) before and all that happened was -- due to Entravision not filling out paperwork -- the KDLE numbers were recombined and reissued. There was no change in what the numbers were before the recombination.

And a change of one-tenth is still within Indie's normal range of wobble, so that is not any kind of big deal.

Plus -- especially with a low-rated station, where in-demo ratings are what is important -- fabricating an argument with 12+ numbers is meaningless.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
CD 103.1

> Hey, was on of the Indie signals CD 103 at one time? If so,
> I guess this is not the first time they've been an
> alternative format (uh, if I'm right?)
> If I'm wrong, just forget I wrote the whole message...

Yes, KACD Santa Monica and KBCD Newport Beach were CD 103.1, and Groove, and Channel 103.1 ...

... and the 103.1s were also Mars and Jazz FM ...

... and K-Surf/K-Ocean.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
I'm not making an arguement, I'm just saying that the big drop they took last trend didn't actually happen. So I agree, not much story there, 103.1 hasn't really changed since the spring book.



> > In this current release Arbitron CHANGED the numbers for
> the
> > 103.1 combo for the previous phase.
> > That change put Indie 40% higher than originally listed in
>
> > the previous phase.
> >
> > Previous phase for 103.1 12+ is now being listed 40%
> higher
> > than it was when the phase was originally released, which
> is
> > exactly what that kid said would happen.
> >
> > So 103.1 didn't bounce back from last phase. They were
> > actually a tenth higher in the last phase, which was equal
>
> > to what they were in the previous book.
>
> You sound just like the kid.
>
> It was discussed (to death) before and all that happened was
> -- due to Entravision not filling out paperwork -- the KDLE
> numbers were recombined and reissued. There was no change
> in what the numbers were before the recombination.
>
> And a change of one-tenth is still within Indie's normal
> range of wobble, so that is not any kind of big deal.
>
> Plus -- especially with a low-rated station, where in-demo
> ratings are what is important -- fabricating an argument
> with 12+ numbers is meaningless.
>
 
> I'm not making an arguement, I'm just saying that the big
> drop they took last trend didn't actually happen. So I
> agree, not much story there, 103.1 hasn't really changed
> since the spring book.

So for "not much story there" you felt compelled to start a thread about nothing?

Are you Jerry Seinfeld?<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: CD 103.1

If I were in charge of the LA CC cluster, I'd move the Indie format to 98.7. I'd change KBIG 104.3 into Star (better name, imo), and I would spin off the 103.1 signals (perhaps splitting them up), perhaps they'd make great community radio frequencies (again, imo).

I just see no reason why they are struggling along with this whole set up, it seems like CC is making it more complicated than they need to. But, that's just my opinion, what do I know...?



> > Hey, was on of the Indie signals CD 103 at one time? If
> so,
> > I guess this is not the first time they've been an
> > alternative format (uh, if I'm right?)
> > If I'm wrong, just forget I wrote the whole message...
>
> Yes, KACD Santa Monica and KBCD Newport Beach were CD 103.1,
> and Groove, and Channel 103.1 ...
>
> ... and the 103.1s were also Mars and Jazz FM ...
>
> ... and K-Surf/K-Ocean.
>
 
> The part he may be right about is in the current trend, it
> shows the last trend for indie as being 40% higher than it
> showed up as in the last trend.

Indie, after having MRS problems in the last trend, and, specifically, in July, is back in the 0.8 to 1.3 range it has been in for a long long time.

Again, con brio: a 0.8 is a 0.9 is a 1.0 is a 1.2 is a 1.3 is a 1.4 due to the fact that Indie shows up in less than 250 diaries out of over 7000 in the LA market, so shifts of a dozen or so diaries can affect this one and create a whiplash effect every month.
>
> It's hard to phrase this without using numbers but this
> trend indictates that last trend's 12+ for indie was
> actually 40% higher than was listed in the last trend.

It is still within the same statistical range. Until it moves out of the range, it is essentially what it has been for two years.
 
>
> In this current release Arbitron CHANGED the numbers for the
> 103.1 combo for the previous phase.
> That change put Indie 40% higher than originally listed in
> the previous phase.

Arbitron DID NOT change any numbers. Arbitron, very graciously, made up for Indie's mistake of not advising Arbitron that they were a simulcast, and added the numbers. Previously, they did not, in one single trend, add the numbers because KDLE as a stand alone did not make the book.

The underlying numbers were not changed. All Arbitron did was add them when Entravision had failed to tell them in advance that there was a combo.
>
> Previous phase for 103.1 12+ is now being listed 40% higher
> than it was when the phase was originally released, which is
> exactly what that kid said would happen.

No, that is not what happened. You are 100% and totally, abysmally, hopelessley, wretchedly wrong.
>
> So 103.1 didn't bounce back from last phase. They were
> actually a tenth higher in the last phase, which was equal
> to what they were in the previous book.

Please do not e/mail me any more. I have your address bolocked as Spam, which it definitely is.
 
> I'm not making an arguement, I'm just saying that the big
> drop they took last trend didn't actually happen. So I
> agree, not much story there, 103.1 hasn't really changed
> since the spring book.

THERE WAS NO BIG DROP.
 
> > I'm not making an arguement, I'm just saying that the big
> > drop they took last trend didn't actually happen. So I
> > agree, not much story there, 103.1 hasn't really changed
> > since the spring book.
>
> So for "not much story there" you felt compelled to start a
> thread about nothing?
>
> Are you Jerry Seinfeld?
>

No, he is imitating Jim Carey or Jeff Daniels in the move where they worked together. I think he is the one with the "er" at the end of the name.
 
> You sound just like the kid.

You know 'that Kid' took a 1 Year break, when St. Louis Sam took over. Perhaps Nick who is brand new knows Freddy & Sam?
 
Re: CD 103.1

> If I were in charge of the LA CC cluster, I'd move the Indie
> format to 98.7. I'd change KBIG 104.3 into Star (better
> name, imo), and I would spin off the 103.1 signals (perhaps
> splitting them up), perhaps they'd make great community
> radio frequencies (again, imo).
>
> I just see no reason why they are struggling along with this
> whole set up, it seems like CC is making it more complicated
> than they need to. But, that's just my opinion, what do I
> know...?

Damned little, I'm afraid, Garrett.

CC has not owned the 103.1s for quite a few years now. Entravision bought them from CC in 2001 (remember when Channel 103.1 was replaced by Super Estrella?).

So none of what you suggested above has any basis in reality (except maybe changing KBIG's identity and having the 103.1s go back to being community-based stations).<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: CD 103.1

I thought there was an agreement signed with Entravision where CC would program 103.1? I thought that was why Super Estrella became Indie?

That's what I was referring to...
Please excuse me for my obvious misperception of the situation.



> CC has not owned the 103.1s for quite a few years now.
> Entravision bought them from CC in 2001 (remember when
> Channel 103.1 was replaced by Super Estrella?).
>
> So none of what you suggested above has any basis in reality
> (except maybe changing KBIG's identity and having the 103.1s
> go back to being community-based stations).
>
 
Re: CD 103.1

> I thought there was an agreement signed with Entravision
> where CC would program 103.1? I thought that was why Super
> Estrella became Indie?

No, CCU has a sales agreement and could legally not touch admin or programming. That ended 8 months ago, roughly.
 
> > > I'm not making an arguement, I'm just saying that the
> big
> > > drop they took last trend didn't actually happen. So I
> > > agree, not much story there, 103.1 hasn't really changed
>
> > > since the spring book.
> >
> > So for "not much story there" you felt compelled to start
> a
> > thread about nothing?
> >
> > Are you Jerry Seinfeld?
> >
>
> No, he is imitating Jim Carey or Jeff Daniels in the move
> where they worked together. I think he is the one with the
> "er" at the end of the name.
>

Boy, that's hilarious. I almost fell off my seat I laughed so hard. Or, you know. I didn't.
 
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