The end of broadcast TV

[vchimpanzee]

Two events that could mean the end:

http://boards.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,155335.0.html

http://boards.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,156871.0.html

The first topic doesn't have a discussion, but it does have a link to some pretty scary news.

 

[stationless listener]

Well, after years and years of hearing from people things like "If you cancel ____ then I'll never watch ____ again!" the networks are just gonna throw their hands up and stop trying to pretend they're in the business of pleasing everyone. They actually stopped doing that in the real sense when they made the decision of going after certain demos and tailor shows on their tastes. Check out what one FOX exec said was the reaction to the cancellation of Dollhouse. (http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/389062-The_Networks_Take_Out_the_Trash.php)

I'm not going to repeat the long rant I posted in the second of the threads you listed but I'll just end by saying this: it will take another decade or two but you're going to see NBC, CBS, FOX, ABC, Univision and other networks leave the public airwaves to the likes of religious broadcasters, community groups, independents (English and Spanish language), small producers who can't afford the finances of a big-network production, public broadcasters and foreign media companies. You're already seeing that in the West Coast cities with high immigrant populations, New York and Chicago, as well as rural areas with religious broadcasters. Look to see more of that happening as the nets move big time to non-broadcast media like satellite, cable, Internet and wireless.

Broadcast will not go away completely. At least we will still see PBS or something similar to it on the public airwaves for the foreseeable future. What we may see (and that's a BIG IF) is whether the FCC will allow foreign media companies to enter the marketplace to replace the domestic nets who leave broadcast for good.

 

[azumanga]

...it will take another decade or two but you're going to see [the major] networks leave the public airwaves to the likes of religious broadcasters, community groups, independents (English and Spanish language), small producers who can't afford the finances of a big-network production, public broadcasters and foreign media companies.

If radio has any indication, I won't be surprised if religious groups, especially Christian broadcasters, snap up many of the TV stations, unless the FCC puts their foot down and set restrictions and caps on religious broadcasters.

What we may see (and that's a BIG IF) is whether the FCC will allow foreign media companies to enter the marketplace to replace the domestic nets who leave broadcast for good.

Maybe it's a good time to actually allow foreign broadcasters into the US. I have heard that Global in Canada was hankering to do so for years, though of course, FCC rules prohibited their entry.

(Along that same token, what goes for US TV also goes for Canadian -- especially Anglophone -- TV.)

 

[w9wi]

If radio has any indication, I won't be surprised if religious groups, especially Christian broadcasters, snap up many of the TV stations, unless the FCC puts their foot down and set restrictions and caps on religious broadcasters.

I see essentially zero chance of the FCC restricting religious broadcasting as such.

I can see a possibility of imposition of multiple-ownership restrictions on non-commercial stations, though that's not on the near-term radar and would not affect the operations we're talking about here.

Maybe it's a good time to actually allow foreign broadcasters into the US. I have heard that Global in Canada was hankering to do so for years, though of course, FCC rules prohibited their entry.

Most Canadian TV is VERY heavily using U.S. programs. If the programming currently airing on U.S. OTA networks migrated to cable, I think the producers would refuse to sell to a U.S. division of Global. If the programming simply ceased to exist... then Global would have little to air either in the U.S. or Canada.

I sure would like to see CBC programming available OTA down here though. (maybe moreso radio than TV...)

A fair amount of U.S. Spanish-language programming already comes from foreign producers.

And there's nothing in the law or FCC regulations that would prevent foreign broadcasters from establishing a network in the U.S.. They just can't own stations - barring a change in the law, a "Global USA" would have no O&Os.

 

[LKellerIII]

It's easy to predict the "end of broadcast TV" but I think it's way to pre-mature, and likely quite a few years off. Technology does seem to move at the speed of light sometimes, but many predictions are just plain wrong.

I remember that Blockbuster (Video) stock started to lose value about 1993 when they were still a very healthy company. The reason was all the rampant speculation that they would be ruined by the coming "500 channel world" in which thousands of movies would be available on your TV on-demand with the flick of a switch.

Well, it's 16 years later, and that world still hasn't come. Nobody predicted that the ruination of Blockbuster's retail store empire would be much more low-tech: DVDs sent by mail.

 

[landtuna]

Nobody predicted that the ruination of Blockbuster's retail store empire would be much more low-tech: DVDs sent by mail.

Sometimes the law of unintended consequences takes effect.

I can't speak for others but I believe the downfall of broadcast networks will be content and not technology. My total weekly viewing, aside from live sports events, is now down to four hours: two one-half hour shows and two hour-long shows spread over two networks (sorry Fox and NBC). The other two adults in my house watch about the same (minus the live sports). There is simply no regular programming being broadcast that is of much interest and it falls further each passing year.

With the 'interesting' content at such a low level there is no interest for me or my family to invest in any sort of mobile technology. Watching most video on the Internet has proven to be a bust so far and I don't see it reaching current broadcast standards in my lifetime.

I am old enough to remember the 'Golden Age of Television' where watching on fuzzy black and white screens made no difference to the entertainment enjoyed. Now we have surround sound on gigantic crystal-clear screens but little substance behind it. I'm not saying I'd want to go back to the "good old days" but I sure do miss the quality of "original" TV.

 

[LKellerIII]

Nobody predicted that the ruination of Blockbuster's retail store empire would be much more low-tech: DVDs sent by mail.

Sometimes the law of unintended consequences takes effect.

I can't speak for others but I believe the downfall of broadcast networks will be content and not technology. My total weekly viewing, aside from live sports events, is now down to four hours: two one-half hour shows and two hour-long shows spread over two networks (sorry Fox and NBC). The other two adults in my house watch about the same (minus the live sports). There is simply no regular programming being broadcast that is of much interest and it falls further each passing year.

With the 'interesting' content at such a low level there is no interest for me or my family to invest in any sort of mobile technology. Watching most video on the Internet has proven to be a bust so far and I don't see it reaching current broadcast standards in my lifetime.

I am old enough to remember the 'Golden Age of Television' where watching on fuzzy black and white screens made no difference to the entertainment enjoyed. Now we have surround sound on gigantic crystal-clear screens but little substance behind it. I'm not saying I'd want to go back to the "good old days" but I sure do miss the quality of "original" TV.

Good points, landtuna. I probably watch five hours of regular network TV a week - I still like 60 Mintutes, and the Thursday night NBC comedies (The Office, 30 Rock, etc.), and I'll watch a couple of the Fox Sunday night "animation domination" shows if I'm not too busy. But that's about it. And I DVR those shows so I can skip the commercials.

The end of broadcast TV will probably be a gradual 'death by a thousand cuts' kind of thing.

 

[MarcB]

Here's what I watch on broadcast tv including local shows. Note: Some I don't watch religiously.

CBS:
Channel 3 Eyewitness News
Three Rivers
2 1/2 Men
Inside Edition

NBC:
The Biggest Loser
If she has an interesting guest - Bonnie Hunt
If he has an interesting guest - Leno (I don't really like the guy)

ABC:
Rachael Ray
Judge Judy (Not a regular viewer)

FOX:
Roseanne (If I'm up at 3:30AM and not watching the episodes on Nick-at-Nite at the same time)
Family Guy (Reruns and New Episodes)
The Simpsons (Reruns if I remember they're on. They moved them to 11:30PM this year and new episodes)
The Doctors (If they're discussing a topic I'm interested in)
Dr. Oz (If he's discussing a topic I'm interested in)
NY Giants Football
NY Yankees Baseball (if that's the FOX game of the week)
America's Most Wanted
2 1/2 Men (reruns)

CW:
Everybody Hates Chris (reruns)
Everyone Loves Raymond (not a regular viewer)

MY Network TV:
Good Morning Connecticut at 7 (if I'm not up at 6AM to watch Eyewitness News on CBS)
NewsChannel 8 at 10 on MY TV 9
New York Yankees Baseball (They show around 15 Tuesday or Friday Games)
TMZ
The Insider (not a regular viewer)

ION:
Reba
Family Feud (Reruns)

 

[Markieo]

Give it about 10 years...over the air TV will be nothing but TBN, 700 Club and infomercials 24/7!

By the way, crap like "Next", "Teen Cribs" and "The Andy Milinokis Show" make "My Mother, The Car", "The Ugliest Girl In Town" and "Me and The Chimp" look like Emmy Award winning masterpieces!!

 

[FreddyE1977]

the issue, as always, is content. If there is a very well-made, entertaining, popular program, people will go and seek it out whether it's on one of the Big 3, ION, local low-power UHF, pay cable, wireless broadband, YouTube or whatever. Broadcast networks today do not want to invest the money into discovering and developing quality, nor do they have the intestinal fortitude to experiment.

That being said I do not think the CongressCritters would allow the changes in the linked articles to occur, even though they do make some business and technical sense.