The FNX moment of truth?

[ciao99]

Wasn't PPM supposed to be the moment of truth for WFNX? Once PPM was out and ratings didn't rely on diaries, the WFNX ratings were supposed to explode.

Well it didn't happen. The rating quoted in R&R is the same lackluster performance we've been seeing from them for about a year and a half now.

Instead, the big surprise here is WBOS.

My goodness, even WERS is pulling better numbers. And as an alternative music fan, that is where I go for alt rock nowadays.

 

[thetheo]

If they rolled out PPM right it may have been the "moment of truth"

But the numbers are hardly better/more accurate/etc than diary numbers.

PPM needs to be much better before I'd trust any of these numbers.

They still are polling less than 1/10th of 1% of the population, so first and foremost how accurate can they be?

Secondly, they still aren't really doing a "random" sample of the population. 90% of the people they call are still landline only households while now over 20% of the us population only have cell phones and no landline. 48% of the people who are cell phone only are 25-34. Do you think that's a big demo for radio? Do you think that young people probably listen to WFNX, WBCN, etc and that's why those stations ratings continue to decline, because one of their biggest listening group is barely getting polled? If 1/2 of the 20% of cell only households in Boston are 25-34 and those people only have a 1/10 shot of getting a PPM then obviously any station with a younger demo is going to have worse ratings. You can even dig a little deeper than that, as all persons under 34 make up 64% of cell phone only households. So 2 of every 3 people walking around with no landline are under 35 and have little to no shot at effecting radio ratings.

So basically, about 1300 people in Boston (if i remember the sample size correctly) are being polled, of which only about 300-400 are likely under 35, are dictating these ratings.

Age isn't the only thing skewed either. If you look at the studies about cell phone only households many demographics change depending on if you have a landline or not. So by not including the proper ratio they could be excluding certain income brackets, certain education levels, certain races, etc all are things that play into who listens to what.

I hope the decision makers when it comes to radio / advertisers / etc start to realize how flawed the ratings really are and start to actually "think" a bit before reacting to the "numbers"

Anyway, sorry for the rant, but to me these numbers are just not accurate!

 

[Neanderpaul]

All of that might be valid if the fact that Cell phone-only participant is paid higher, and this were based upon phone recall.

But it's not.

It's based on real exposure. There are lots of ways to game this system. It is a small sample size. It will have criticism. But, until we can monitor everyone who listens, or the industry tells Arbitron to take a flying leap, this is the world we live in.

Complaining does nothing. Adapting, and exploiting wins.

The fact is, and has always been, that WFNX has never been a real player. Greater Media just showed what can happen with a real signal. I loved WFNX. Thought it was cool. Even though I was pissed they took away my WLYN Rock station However, they have always been niche programmed, and underpowered.

If they didn't thrive during the Alt-Rock boom of the mid-90's, it's not going to happen. Accept it. It's just never going to win.

No matter what system you use.

 

[thetheo]

Why would cell phone only users need to be paid more? Cause it may eat up a few minutes? Tons of people are on unlimited plans now anyway. Especially with MetroPCS opening on every corner (they only offer unlimited voice/txt for $40/month), I'd guess half the people that use cell as their primary/only phone have some kind of unlimited/high package.

Also, I'm not saying if the ratings system was better executed FNX would "win"

I agree it's a niche and a lesser signal.

but FNX wouldn't have a 0.7, BCN wouldn't have a 2.1, and so on.

I don't think a better system would rearrange the order that much, I just think it would bump up any younger leaning stations, I'd be willing to bet if you polled 100% of Boston that BCN would be more like a 3-4 and FNX would be closer to a 2, and so on. Even an ERS would be higher I bet, sure it's impressive they are on the list with the commercial stations, but with the amount they raise in fund drives they've got to have an actual number better than a 0.8.

I just think there's large chunks of demos being missed by the current system, will it ever be "fixed" prob not, but here's to wishful thinking.

 

[Neanderpaul]

Why would cell phone only users need to be paid more? Cause it may eat up a few minutes? Tons of people are on unlimited plans now anyway. Especially with MetroPCS opening on every corner (they only offer unlimited voice/txt for $40/month), I'd guess half the people that use cell as their primary/only phone have some kind of unlimited/high package.

Also, I'm not saying if the ratings system was better executed FNX would "win"

I agree it's a niche and a lesser signal.

but FNX wouldn't have a 0.7, BCN wouldn't have a 2.1, and so on.

I don't think a better system would rearrange the order that much, I just think it would bump up any younger leaning stations, I'd be willing to bet if you polled 100% of Boston that BCN would be more like a 3-4 and FNX would be closer to a 2, and so on. Even an ERS would be higher I bet, sure it's impressive they are on the list with the commercial stations, but with the amount they raise in fund drives they've got to have an actual number better than a 0.8.

I just think there's large chunks of demos being missed by the current system, will it ever be "fixed" prob not, but here's to wishful thinking.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the impression you believe the data is being retrieved via phone?

Have you seen how PPM works?

For those that don't know, the participant wears a pager-like device that actually monitors a signal that is encoded within the broadcast. Not unlike the RDS. There is no phone research anymore. You do not get people voting for their favorite station even if they listen to someone else. There are processes that the participant must adhere to in order to have the data retrieved properly.

Now, there are also definite ways to game this. As I know for fact that many stations will take what I'd type here, and implement it, and it would work, and someone would challenge and the system will be proven flawed. So, I won't go into them. But, this system is, on the surface more accurate. Most intelligent programmers are already working to beat the system. And they will.

And I don't know why cell-only customers are compensated at a higher rate, but that's what I've heard.

Either way, even the most ardent fan of WFNX can't really believe more people in the Boston metro are tuning in to them more than the bigger stations. It's the McDonald's syndrome. Nobody eats there because it's the best. They eat there because it's convenient. WAAF/WZLX/WROR/WBCN is in the behavior of most Boston Rock listeners. They don't even know why they tune to it.

The real trick in the PPM world is to be a great brand. Like Xerox, Coke, Kleenex etc. The brand wins in PPM world.

Why is Budweiser the world's biggest selling beer? Because it's everyone's fallback choice. And the return of AOR is coming. The station that truly appeals to the masses now wins. Niche formats are dead.

 

[NHRadio]

I was under the impression that the PPM data is retrieved by phone, when the unit is placed on the charging stand at night it "phones home" and uploads that days listening.
How does this process work in a CPO (cell phone only) home?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the impression you believe the data is being retrieved via phone?

Have you seen how PPM works?

For those that don't know, the participant wears a pager-like device that actually monitors a signal that is encoded within the broadcast. Not unlike the RDS. There is no phone research anymore. You do not get people voting for their favorite station even if they listen to someone else. There are processes that the participant must adhere to in order to have the data retrieved properly.

 

[Garrett]

Oh. I thought it was chip they implanted in your brain...
;D

 

[Retro]

Instead, the big surprise here is WBOS.

They've gotten much better since their sign on.

 

[Uncle Kaimbridge]

I was under the impression that the PPM data is retrieved by phone, when the unit is placed on the charging stand at night it "phones home" and uploads that days listening.

That's what I thought, too——at least that is (IIRC) how Neilsen's TV version works.

 

[thetheo]

I know how it works, got to sit in on a day long presentation about PPM in Philly when they were rolling it out there, which is where i saw some of the staggering low sample size plans.

I was just thrown off when you said they'd have to pay cell-only more....which I don't get why, who knows.

I don't think it's that they need to PAY cell-only more, they just need to TRY to get more cell-only. Right now they are only trying to get 10% (prob getting less) whereas the actual population is 20%+

So if they try to get cell phone only to be 20-25% of their sample, then it will be a closer representation of who's out there, though still pathetically low.

 

[DJbobo]

Why would cell phone only users need to be paid more? Cause it may eat up a few minutes? Tons of people are on unlimited plans now anyway. Especially with MetroPCS opening on every corner (they only offer unlimited voice/txt for $40/month), I'd guess half the people that use cell as their primary/only phone have some kind of unlimited/high package.

Also, I'm not saying if the ratings system was better executed FNX would "win"

I agree it's a niche and a lesser signal.

but FNX wouldn't have a 0.7, BCN wouldn't have a 2.1, and so on.

I don't think a better system would rearrange the order that much, I just think it would bump up any younger leaning stations, I'd be willing to bet if you polled 100% of Boston that BCN would be more like a 3-4 and FNX would be closer to a 2, and so on. Even an ERS would be higher I bet, sure it's impressive they are on the list with the commercial stations, but with the amount they raise in fund drives they've got to have an actual number better than a 0.8.

I just think there's large chunks of demos being missed by the current system, will it ever be "fixed" prob not, but here's to wishful thinking.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the impression you believe the data is being retrieved via phone?

Have you seen how PPM works?

For those that don't know, the participant wears a pager-like device that actually monitors a signal that is encoded within the broadcast. Not unlike the RDS. There is no phone research anymore. You do not get people voting for their favorite station even if they listen to someone else. There are processes that the participant must adhere to in order to have the data retrieved properly.

Now, there are also definite ways to game this. As I know for fact that many stations will take what I'd type here, and implement it, and it would work, and someone would challenge and the system will be proven flawed. So, I won't go into them. But, this system is, on the surface more accurate. Most intelligent programmers are already working to beat the system. And they will.

And I don't know why cell-only customers are compensated at a higher rate, but that's what I've heard.

Either way, even the most ardent fan of WFNX can't really believe more people in the Boston metro are tuning in to them more than the bigger stations. It's the McDonald's syndrome. Nobody eats there because it's the best. They eat there because it's convenient. WAAF/WZLX/WROR/WBCN is in the behavior of most Boston Rock listeners. They don't even know why they tune to it.

The real trick in the PPM world is to be a great brand. Like Xerox, Coke, Kleenex etc. The brand wins in PPM world.

Why is Budweiser the world's biggest selling beer? Because it's everyone's fallback choice. And the return of AOR is coming. The station that truly appeals to the masses now wins. Niche formats are dead.

Then you have habits among certain demo samplings with affect the ratings. It's been well documented that younger participants(18-24) either will forget to bring the PPM beeper with them in the moring or simply refuse to wear it because they don't think it's cool. So stations like Jamn, WFNX, WBCN or WAAF that have many younger listeners get hurt because their core samplers don't take the survey very seriously.

 

[Zeb Norris]

Not wearing the device results in the person being dropped from the sample and replaced. It's got a motion detector built in.

 

[JoshuaC]

Having now gone through about 6 months of PPM myself, it does look as if the fabled "this will SAVE alternative radio" effect has been just that: merely a fable. As far as rock goes, AOR-type stations and the classic rock stations seem to really be the way to go (at least for the big bucks) in a PPM world. I haven't had the opportunity to hear the new WBOS format... does it lean more Classic Alternative or Triple-A (like 92.5) than FNX? If so... it likely gets some of the AC bump from people playing it in stores/offices as ambient music.

WFNX has never been a ratings leader though... even during its peak in the early 90s it was barely gracing a 2-Share. If WFNX was owned by CBS or some other larger corporation, it would have been gone years ago. However... since it is a privately held company and it's owner is very behind the product (through thick and thin), I would imagine that it'll stay on until it isn't bringing in enough money to keep the lights on. I did expect PPM to give it a little bump though. Oh well.

 

[TSBench]

So stations like Jamn, WFNX, WBCN or WAAF that have many younger listeners get hurt because their core samplers don't take the survey very seriously.

IOW, those young listeners don't take the passive PPM seriously because it is too difficult and/or uncool to use, but they had no problem with diaries which actually required thought, recall, and follow-though? If they don't take the PPM seriously, just how seriously were they taking the diaries? If nothing else, PPM should improve results in those demos, not hurt them.

I'd think that the digital generation would think a PPM was a lot 'cooler' than trying to remember what they were listening to a week ago as they worked their way through a case of Coors. Heck, the PPM has a greater chance of becoming the 'in' accessory.

Of course, every station that takes a hit from the PPM measurements has already stockpiled a collection of reasons, such as the one you mentioned, and a lot more for inclusion in sales pitches if the need arises.

The only one of these 'explanations' which ever seemed to be undoubtedly true, was the one WBCN used when they used to plead substantial 'undersampling' back in the day because Arbitron wasn't putting diaries into college dorms. Any client who ever walked down Commonwealth Avenue knew this was true. OTOH, trying to convince a client that your 20-something listeners are all technophobes is going to be a pretty tough sell.

Regards,
TSB

 

[DJbobo]

So stations like Jamn, WFNX, WBCN or WAAF that have many younger listeners get hurt because their core samplers don't take the survey very seriously.

IOW, those young listeners don't take the passive PPM seriously because it is too difficult and/or uncool to use, but they had no problem with diaries which actually required thought, recall, and follow-though? If they don't take the PPM seriously, just how seriously were they taking the diaries? If nothing else, PPM should improve results in those demos, not hurt them.

I'd think that the digital generation would think a PPM was a lot 'cooler' than trying to remember what they were listening to a week ago as they worked their way through a case of Coors. Heck, the PPM has a greater chance of becoming the 'in' accessory.

Of course, every station that takes a hit from the PPM measurements has already stockpiled a collection of reasons, such as the one you mentioned, and a lot more for inclusion in sales pitches if the need arises.

The only one of these 'explanations' which ever seemed to be undoubtedly true, was the one WBCN used when they used to plead substantial 'undersampling' back in the day because Arbitron wasn't putting diaries into college dorms. Any client who ever walked down Commonwealth Avenue knew this was true. OTOH, trying to convince a client that your 20-something listeners are all technophobes is going to be a pretty tough sell.

Regards,
TSB

Both systems have major flaws. Diaries favored pre-determined favoritism so even if someone tried a different station during the week, they'd still end up giving more credit to their favorite station(s) when the 'recall' time came on Thursday morning.

As some posters have correctly pointed out, PPM favors exposure and inactive background listening/noise - stores, shops, offices, places of employment, riding in someone else's vehicle or being at someone's house where radio might be on, etc where you have no control over your listening preferences and/or not actively listening to certain station(s). That is just absurd.

 

[TSBench]

As some posters have correctly pointed out, PPM favors exposure and inactive background listening/noise - stores, shops, offices, places of employment, riding in someone else's vehicle or being at someone's house where radio might be on, etc where you have no control over your listening preferences and/or not actively listening to certain station(s). That is just absurd.

How is that absurd? I normally don't listen to MJX, but that was what I was listening to for an hour and a half in my dentist's office this morning. If I was wearing a PPM, MJX gets credit for my ears, which is all the system is meant to count...not the station I would normally be listening to, not the station I would have preferred, not the station I listened to driving to and from the dentist, not my favorite station, nor whether or not I was actively paying attention to the ads or the DJs or if I like the music. Radio, with few exceptions, is a passive medium, in fact most radio pitches mention that radio listening is something you do while doing something else, which is one edge it has over television, newspapers, and magazines. But, all Arbitron numbers, diary or PPM, are meant to just count ears, which is why music stations like MJX run 'listen at work' promotions. If you want to know income demos, or ad recall, or people who listen religiously to every song, every chat, every word that comes over the air, that's a 'whole 'nuther smoke', another methodology, and another check written to a survey research company.

Diaries, on the other hand, may not record the station people listen to at the dentist or tire store waiting room, but, as you mentioned, are loaded with mentions of stations, dayparts, and shows that people DIDN'T listen to anywhere, passively or actively. Since ad agencies and clients are paying for those non-existent ears, if it any wonder they prefer the PPM, which at least gives their ad a fighting chance.

Yes, both systems have flaws, but if you had to design a system tailor-made for ease of fraud, gaming, bogus or agenda-driven information, you'd be hard pressed to come up with a better one than the ARB diary. And, for the ad agencies that are buying ears, PPM is the future.

Regards,
TSB

 

[Neanderpaul]

The prime principle lost in the PPM world is listening.

There's a massive difference between exposure, hearing, and listening.

PPM erases that.

That's not more accurate. It's just easier to mine some sort of data that keeps Arbitron relevant.

And make no mistake. Arbitron has no interest in being accurate. Their, and all business' first objective is:

Keep the check coming in.

 

[fnx-ed]

Really? Isn't this horse dead already?

Look at the demos. 6 plus numbers mean nothing to agencies. You've got to look deeper at the 18-49 numbers. You can even break it down further. Look at college educated. Look at higher income. Look at the bigger picture because that's what's being bought, not 6 plus numbers. They are meaningless.

WFNX does not kill it 6 plus, but still makes money by selling to buyers who are interested in a college educated, higher income audience. And for the last time WFNX is not going away. FNX has lived with these kind of ratings since the mid nineties. PMCG is in full support of WFNX and the format.

If anyone is going to flip because of PPM, its WBCN. Look beyond their 6+ and peek at their 18-49. WBOS is hurting WBCN far more than FNX.

Hey Ciao! Glad to see the Feds gave you back your internet access.

 

[DJbobo]

As some posters have correctly pointed out, PPM favors exposure and inactive background listening/noise - stores, shops, offices, places of employment, riding in someone else's vehicle or being at someone's house where radio might be on, etc where you have no control over your listening preferences and/or not actively listening to certain station(s). That is just absurd.

How is that absurd? I normally don't listen to MJX, but that was what I was listening to for an hour and a half in my dentist's office this morning. If I was wearing a PPM, MJX gets credit for my ears, which is all the system is meant to count...not the station I would normally be listening to, not the station I would have preferred, not the station I listened to driving to and from the dentist, not my favorite station, nor whether or not I was actively paying attention to the ads or the DJs or if I like the music. Radio, with few exceptions, is a passive medium, in fact most radio pitches mention that radio listening is something you do while doing something else, which is one edge it has over television, newspapers, and magazines. But, all Arbitron numbers, diary or PPM, are meant to just count ears, which is why music stations like MJX run 'listen at work' promotions. If you want to know income demos, or ad recall, or people who listen religiously to every song, every chat, every word that comes over the air, that's a 'whole 'nuther smoke', another methodology, and another check written to a survey research company.

It's absurd if you're a PPM-wearing Jamn listener sitting in the dentist chair for 90 minutes being mis-targeted by a Magic format and more importantly by advertisement which will have no impact on you as a consumer. Jamn listeners will not be leasing a new Lexus at $599 a month, frequenting suburban gardening store or traveling to an overpriced family vacation resort.

 

[TSBench]

It's absurd if you're a PPM-wearing Jamn listener sitting in the dentist chair for 90 minutes being mis-targeted by a Magic format and more importantly by advertisement which will have no impact on you as a consumer.

Huh? Everyday all of us are bombarded with advertisements for products we have never bought, will never buy, have no need for, and have no interest in. This is your definition of absurd?

Let's try this one more time. ARB doesn't, and never has, maintained that the ‘numbers’ (share and rating), either diary or PPM, report anything other than audience estimates[/i] by demo. Since your sample advertiser has already purchased the time, based on MJX's past performance in certain parameters, it doesn't matter to them who is listening outside of said parameters, since there is no such thing as a 100% efficient buy, and they weren't buying that JAMN listener anyway. A 20-something JAMN listener is invisible to those advertisers you mentioned, because they're not buying into that demo no matter how terrific MJX does in it in the next report. Get it? Major stations and groups have access to both quantitative and qualitative data which is presented to (and often demanded by) advertisers in sales pitches. and therefore that accidental JAMN listener will be invisible to advertisers, and not paid for, if he’s not in the target audience. Those widely published 6+, 12+, and 18+ numbers that are released to the public in newspapers and the 'net are given away free because they are worthless for anything other than entertainment value or bragging rights on radio info boards. ARB doesn't give away anything they can sell, and they can sell the information which is really important..

But what ARB does do is present a snapshot of who’s listening to what when, and everyone in that office is exposed, whether they want to be or not, to MJX. That is a fact. Nobody is being victimized, not JAMN because the person isn’t listening to JAMN, not the advertiser because they didn’t buy that listener in the first place, and not MJX because that person actually was listening to MJX and since MJX has no control over who listens they haven’t mis-targeted anyone. When the truth becomes an absurdity, we’re all in trouble. Getting exercised over meaningless numbers and listener aberrations is just silly.

Jamn listeners will not be leasing a new Lexus at $599 a month, frequenting suburban gardening store or traveling to an overpriced family vacation resort.

Gosh, maybe they buy Fords from Chambers, furniture from Jordans, and Toyota Celicas from Boch or the products of other MJX advertisers. I hear JAMN blaring at 200 dbs from cars at stoplights and in shopping center parking lots, and I can't believe they're all driving stolen junkers with hot furniture strapped to the roof and heading out to East St Louis to visit relatives for a vacation, but I'll defer to you on the makeup of the average JAMN listener..

Regards,
TSB