The future of HOT AC

[ThatGuyOnTheRadio]

With another decade coming to an end in 5 months, what can we expect Hot AC's and even AC's for that matter to start sounding like. After all, more and more 80's tunes are showing up on Classic Hits stations.

The Best Mix of the 80's, 90's and Today will cover thirty years...

Thoughts?

 

[whit979]

It's definitely something to keep in mind, but I think that for the time being, '80s will remain strong on Hot AC stations--or at least a necessity for playlist depth. The number of top-tier gold songs that have come out of this decade has been minimal, compared to the '90s and '80s. This is due in large part to the fact that very few songs from the past 10 years have had the kind of staying power that songs had in the 40 years prior to that. Cookie-cutter radio lends itself to a concept of cookie-cutter music.

That being said, with each passing week in the charts I'm seeing more and more CHR content make it. The charts seem to be moving faster than they did as little as three years ago. Additionally, many of the AC stations I hear these days sound like the big Hot ACs of the late '90s. I think what we're starting to see is a generational shift; as one age group outgrows the middle-of-the-road tendencies of Hot AC and moves up to mainstream AC, another age group starts to outgrow CHR and wants to listen to the music they heard in high school.

It's more important than ever for Hot AC programmers to not be afraid of rhythmic gold. There was a time when that was largely shied away from on the format; those days are behind us as mainstream rhythm came into its prime in the '90s. I think there will be a larger demand for that kind of music, although the format at its core will remain a middle-of-the-road alternative to the heavier formats.

What will be increasingly interesting to watch is the direction Clear Channel takes with their programming & their Hot ACs. This saga of their recent financial hardship has rocked the industry to its core. CC made the 'Mix' concept a staple of the American radio landscape; as they go through extensive changes, it will be interesting to watch how the rest of the radio industry reacts.

 

[butlerguy03]

I believe you are going to see a split in Hot AC like CHR. You may even need a MainstreamHAC chart and RhythmicHAC chart. Couldn't you see (especially in a HOTAC/CHR town) one station concentrating on Kanye West, Keri Hilson and Beyonce without the Hip-Pop...while the other concentrates on All-American Rejects, Airborne Toxic Event and Kings of Leon?

I see another major split coming...CHR stations sound odd with Kings of Leon playing next to Lil' Wayne. Today's CHR hits are tomorrows HotAC golds.

 

[oaktree]

With the lack of attention spans over 12 seconds and the fickleness of the American music listening public ... coupled with the lack of staying power of today's new music genres, there will be more fragmentation of music styles and some consolidation of today's "mainstay" formats.

As in the case of movies ... and has been through the last decade ... today, a "hit" lasts not much longer than a week or two, for many reasons. There is also a glut of indie music and less "stars" making product that stands up.

Variety rules today and content ... with lots of it ... is king.

The lines between "Hot A/C" and CHR blend more and more, as does the falling of "rules" against Rythmic being part of a format like Hot A/C. Remember Smooth Jazz? Unto itself, that, too, was a "revolution" that ended up attracting a fan base, just not enough of the fans to make it relevant. Now, it's the most hated format on the few terrestrial stations still brave enough to program it. The same will happen to Hot A/C in time, as it melds into the newest "hot" format.

 

[Mike Schwartz]

I am noticing a blending of Hot AC and CHR this summer. According to this week's Mediabase chart, the entire top 14 hits (save Keri Hilson) are also on the Hot AC top 50. Earlier in the year, the top 10 featured only 6 shared hits. Is this a result of music tastes changing due to summer listening habits, a change in reporting stations and or methodology or some other factor? It was a surprise to me to see Pitbull getting spins on various Hot ACs throughout the nation.

 

[whit979]

I am noticing a blending of Hot AC and CHR this summer. According to this week's Mediabase chart, the entire top 14 hits (save Keri Hilson) are also on the Hot AC top 50. Earlier in the year, the top 10 featured only 6 shared hits. Is this a result of music tastes changing due to summer listening habits, a change in reporting stations and or methodology or some other factor? It was a surprise to me to see Pitbull getting spins on various Hot ACs throughout the nation.

A friend and I were talking about this exact situation the other night. I think that there is just not as much demand for the Lillith Fair/adult '90s alternative material as there once was, so Hot ACs are having to increasingly pull from other formats. Unfortunately I think they're going in a direction that may choke off the format. Playing older CHR hits just doesn't really make sense in this day in age, but the industry as a whole may have better research into the situation that gives them reason to do this. I just think that what we're seeing now are Hot ACs essentially competing with CHRs because of the huge overlap of genres. In that instance I fear CHR will win every time.

Perhaps stations that play only '80s, '90s and early 2000s gold will become a new niche. Perhaps similar to what Cox was doing with some of "The Point" stations that were doing "'80s and more" programming.

 

[AM FM listener]

Very interesting discussion. I think the future of Hot AC will depend, to some extent, on the trends of its format neighbors, (mainstream) AC and (mainstream) CHR. As AC tries to get younger, it is encroaching on Hot AC's territory, playing more upbeat songs from the "hip" artists and less of the soft stuff. On the other hand, CHR seems to be going back to its roots, playing a wider variety of hits, not just the rhythmic ones. This leaves less room for Hot AC to work and distinguish itself from mainstream AC and CHR. I believe, in their struggles to find their identities, Hot AC will split into three distinct styles: modern, mainstream and rhythmic. It is kind of that way already except that modern and rhythmic AC's are not nearly as prevalent as the mainstream version right now.

 

[KarsonWithaK]

I think 80's music will start to fade away from Hot AC as we start 2010.

K~

 

[Mike Schwartz]

I think 80's music will start to fade away from Hot AC as we start 2010.

K~

That has already happened to some extend. When WWFS Fresh 102.7 signed on in NY in January 2007, programming consultant Greg Dunkin described the format as Millennial AC; ie no songs from before 2000 but also including those that fit from the late 90s. While not a true Hot AC, I think that the point was made that it was time to move the music up to a new tier. By 2010, the 80s recede 21-30 years back-yes it will be time for a change on most stations.

 

[Jay F]

I think 80's music will start to fade away from Hot AC as we start 2010.

K~

That has already happened to some extend. When WWFS Fresh 102.7 signed on in NY in January 2007, programming consultant Greg Dunkin described the format as Millennial AC; ie no songs from before 2000 but also including those that fit from the late 90s. While not a true Hot AC, I think that the point was made that it was time to move the music up to a new tier. By 2010, the 80s recede 21-30 years back-yes it will be time for a change on most stations.

I would agree that WWFS is more of an AC with updated music than a Hot AC. It's interesting that FRESH hasn't hurt WLTW which is #1 in NYC and as much of a powerhouse as ever. Of course WLTW plays a wide range of eras from currents to 70s gold, "variety" as they say. This makes me think that there never truly was a large demand for an AC that only play more recent music. It was a concept that sounded better on paper than works out in real life.

The production quality on most 70s era music sounds good, not so different from today.(while 1940s music sounded ancient in the 1970s). Plus some younger listeners do like it when they hear it. I could see this type of gold to stay on AC for quite a while longer. Not the bulk of the playlist, but as a part of the library. Same thing with 80s on Hot AC, I don't think it will go away on most Hot ACs anytime soon.

 

[icycool7227]

I think 80's music will start to fade away from Hot AC as we start 2010.

K~

That has already happened to some extend. When WWFS Fresh 102.7 signed on in NY in January 2007, programming consultant Greg Dunkin described the format as Millennial AC; ie no songs from before 2000 but also including those that fit from the late 90s. While not a true Hot AC, I think that the point was made that it was time to move the music up to a new tier. By 2010, the 80s recede 21-30 years back-yes it will be time for a change on most stations.

Millennial AC?? No this is the same as Bright AC and many other stations have had that format long before Fresh existed.

 

[Mike Schwartz]

I think 80's music will start to fade away from Hot AC as we start 2010.

K~

That has already happened to some extend. When WWFS Fresh 102.7 signed on in NY in January 2007, programming consultant Greg Dunkin described the format as Millennial AC; ie no songs from before 2000 but also including those that fit from the late 90s. While not a true Hot AC, I think that the point was made that it was time to move the music up to a new tier. By 2010, the 80s recede 21-30 years back-yes it will be time for a change on most stations.

Millennial AC?? No this is the same as Bright AC and many other stations have had that format long before Fresh existed.

Dunkin's point by coining that phrase was to emphasize the fact that, initially when the station signed on 2 1/2 + years ago, 75-80 % of the tracks were from 2000 and later-which made for a clear distinction with the reigning ratings champ, AC WLTW. Since that date, many older songs have been added to the playlist at Fresh making it indeed sound more like a standard Bright AC.