THE FUTURE OF OLDIES

[OldiesCat]

Do not fret, boys & girls- OLDIES IS NOT DEAD! In fact, over the next couple of years, we predict a comeback of sorts.

Here's the way it feels like it could shake out:

* major groups (Cox, CC, Infinity) will continue to evolve out of oldies.

* secondary groups (Cumulus, Citadel, etc.) will pick up the format and do well
with it. They have less pressure to impress Wall Street with "the latest and
greatest" and will therefore be quite comfortable with Oldies.

* there'll also be a third tier of smaller groups who will add or continue with
Oldies as the larger groups abandon.

* Oldies on FM will continue to de-emphasize 50's and early 60's music
(rightfully so) to be competitive sales-wise. Center around 1969-70
with a core at 1966-1976, a few of the right pre-Beatles and a few early
80's.

* a few resourceful AM stations in select markets may pick up Oldies and do OK
with it. NOTE: the "Real Oldies" stations we've heard the past couple of
years WILL NOT work. In markets where FM has abandoned the format, Oldies
can be done as it has been for nearly 20 years- late 50's-early 70's with
a center around 1965. They probably won't be huge money makers or ratings
kings but they can be somewhat profitable.

Just one view of the Oldies landscape (and I know all the 50s and Doo-Wop geeks will crucify me, so be it and please save your breath--we've heard it ALL before). But, honestly, wouldn't most of us have it this way than have
the big groups doing Oldies so defensively or not at all?

 

[dustyvinyl]

>
> 50s and Doo-Wop geeks will crucify me, so be it and please
> save your breath--we've heard it ALL before). But,
> honestly, wouldn't most of us have it this way than have
> the big groups doing Oldies so defensively or not at all?
>

A Doo-Wop geek? I don't think I've ever been called that before. LOL! Most Doo-Wop has been relegated to AM for years already. The 1965 "center" you refer to is most often correct. Harvey Holiday still plays Doo-Wop on sunday nights on Oldies 98 FM in Philly.

 

[Joseph_Gallant]

I think (although I personally think it's the wrong approach) that within a year or two, oldies stations will refocus musically on hits recorded between 1975 and 1990.......provided that oldies stations are still around.

The sudden and unexpected (and to many, shocking) flip yesterday (June 3rd) of New York's WCBS-101.1 from oldies to "Jack" will probably result in a mass exodus from the format, with most major-market FM oldies stations probably dumping the format in the next year.

Just as CBS-FM was the first all-oldies station (as far as I know) in 1972, whose success prompted broadcasters in other cities to try all-oldies formats themselves, the move of the station away from oldies may signal the beginning of the end of the format as we've known it and signal to other broadcasters, "Well, CBS-FM dumped oldies. We can dump oldies, too".

 

[OldiesCat]

Oldies music era

to suddenly go up to the 90's would be a mistake, as much as totally dumping the
60's music.

These "new generation" Oldies stations will be able to be mid 60's to mid 70's
core stations just fine. Knee-jerking well into the 80's & up to the 90's would be suicide and ill-advised. Remmber, the pressure to impress Wall Street is not as great for the mid-to-smaller operators, therefore they can stay somewhat true to the CURRENT (in 2005) Oldies model and do well.


> I think (although I personally think it's the wrong
> approach) that within a year or two, oldies stations will
> refocus musically on hits recorded between 1975 and
> 1990.......provided that oldies stations are still around.

 

[gr8oldies]

Re: Oldies music era

I think I may have mentioned this before, but if WSAI would have taken what WGRR was doing from 1996-2000 and did that in the wake of the mess that WGRR was around the time that WSAI flipped, 'SAI could have done reasonably well. More live personalities could have helped. Instead, they put on a format focused on the "doldrums" period between Elvis and the Beatles, and Dan Allen's favorite songs.




> to suddenly go up to the 90's would be a mistake, as much as
> totally dumping the
> 60's music.
>
> These "new generation" Oldies stations will be able to be
> mid 60's to mid 70's
> core stations just fine. Knee-jerking well into the 80's &
> up to the 90's would be suicide and ill-advised. Remmber,
> the pressure to impress Wall Street is not as great for the
> mid-to-smaller operators, therefore they can stay somewhat
> true to the CURRENT (in 2005) Oldies model and do well.
>
>
> > I think (although I personally think it's the wrong
> > approach) that within a year or two, oldies stations will
> > refocus musically on hits recorded between 1975 and
> > 1990.......provided that oldies stations are still around.
>
<P ID="signature">______________
"You can't say 'moron' on the radio, you can only say 'moron' on television"...FCC official on an episode of "The Fairly Oddparents" which my son watches</P>

 

[JohnnyMorganWXJX]

Excellent analysis Cat.

I think you will find the second-tier owners picking up the format, since that hole will need to be plugged. Also, the second-tiers tend to have fewer Wall Street types to impress (whereas Infinity and CC's whole point is to appease the Street crowd--look at the crowing over Infinity's stock number earlier this year.) Let's be realistic--CC and Infinity will need to dump a couple stations (maybe even just one per market), the underperformers, to make and meet Wall Street predictions. The second-tier owners will probably be first in line for these cast-offs, and will plug whatever holes exist.

Look also for AMs and fringe FMs to go--not the real oldies route--but towards what oldies used to be 5-8 years ago: a 50s through early 70s based format, with doo-wop, Motown, British Invasion, Philly soul, and Top 40-variety hits thrown in. It's an older skewing format, yes, which is why the big dosg won't be doing it. But it still has its adherents (on this board, and in the community), and because they're fringe stations (locally owned for the most part) they can afford to dig a bit deeper in the catalogue--which will be good for those people who enjoy that (I do.) Sure, you may need to drive around a bit to get the signal, or stick up your wire antenna (or if you have components, throw on a set of rabbit ears), but those who enjoy the format will take those extra steps.

Also, non-comms will be another big rescuer here. Look at the left hand dial for more oldies specialty shows on college radio, public stations, and other non-comms (if not whole formatted stations themselves). So, if you like it, please donate to your local non-comm in their pledge drive, lest you be...uhhh..."Jack"-ed off. For example, try the Sunday Oldies Jukebox on WSTB 88.9 FM.

 

[TheFonz]

>
> [a few resourceful AM stations in select markets may pick
> up Oldies and do OK
> with it. NOTE: the "Real Oldies" stations we've heard
> the past couple of
> years WILL NOT work. In markets where FM has abandoned
> the format, Oldies
> can be done as it has been for nearly 20 years- late
> 50's-early 70's with
> a center around 1965. They probably won't be huge money
> makers or ratings
> kings but they can be somewhat profitable.
>
> Just one view of the Oldies landscape (and I know all the
> 50s and Doo-Wop geeks will crucify me, so be it and please
> save your breath--we've heard it ALL before). But,
> honestly, wouldn't most of us have it this way than have
> the big groups doing Oldies so defensively or not at all?]

******************************************************************


I'm not sure that music from the mid-sixties and beyond will work on AM. Most of that music was recorded in stereo. Why would a listener want to switch from stereo FM to mono AM when he has other alternatives such as the I-Pod or satellite radio?

 

[JohnnyMorganWXJX]

> I'm not sure that music from the mid-sixties and beyond will
> work on AM. Most of that music was recorded in stereo. Why
> would a listener want to switch from stereo FM to mono AM
> when he has other alternatives such as the I-Pod or
> satellite radio?
>

That music was first played on mono AM top 40 stations in the 60s and 70s; that's not the problem.

The problem is that it was played in mono over 30 years ago. Oldies stations and re-release CDs played them in glorious, colorful stereo. THIS is what listeners remember. Getting music people to come back to the AM band will take a great deal of encouragement. The music itself won't be enough for most people; the diehards have already been there (listening to the fringe AMS with the deep playlists and cheap spot rates or bird formats for years), some big oldies listeners will jump to AM oldies stations because they like the format. The vast remainder will (a) stay with Jacks, (b) go to classic rock, (c) go to the soft rock stations, (d) go to talk, or (e) turn it off and listen to CDs.

In essence, the oldies listeners probably won't migrate to the AMs; unlike us radio geeks, they aren't easily motivated to change their habits. They go to FM for music, and AM for talk and sports. Changing that engrained formula will be hard hard work.

 

[Oldbones]

> I think (although I personally think it's the wrong
> approach) that within a year or two, oldies stations will
> refocus musically on hits recorded between 1975 and
> 1990.......provided that oldies stations are still around.
>


But isn't the Jack format essentially an oldies format focusing on roughly those years? Time will tell if you can mix Lynyrd Skynyrd & Madonna.

 

[topsound]

Oldies is MORE of a risk, not less, for a smaller operator with fewer resources to make the required investment for success. Few will pick up the format. They'll stay with what they have, go to a JACK clone, or run Hispanic programming if there is even a small market for that.

And most of the second-tier are candidates to be bought out by the major groups.

 

[JohnnyMorganWXJX]

> Oldies is MORE of a risk, not less, for a smaller operator
> with fewer resources to make the required investment for
> success. Few will pick up the format. They'll stay with what
> they have, go to a JACK clone, or run Hispanic programming
> if there is even a small market for that.

I disagree. Some may stay with what they have, but NONE will go to Jack. A fringe station or smaller operator does not have an interest in being blown out of the water by a major market-major operator Jack station. Although they may be in the demo, what advertiser will go with a smaller station getting their ass kicked by a major station with the same format?

No, I do believe the smaller stations and fringe stations are perfectly set to adopt oldies formats--even if off the bird. The format hole agrument is too enticing, and these smaller stations are better equipped to handle some local sales, and get advertisers that would not normally be sought by the major operators.

> And most of the second-tier are candidates to be bought out
> by the major groups.

Again, I disagree. In most major markets, the major operators are at their limits; they can't take on more stations. And the ones they have aren't living up to Street expectations (see, e.g., Infinity). Also, the contour vs. Arb market definition is still essentially unsettled. Until that is worked out, there's gonna be NO movement on the sales front. If a smaller station can adopt an oldies format where there's a hole, and get a decent showing revenue and cash flow-wise, any major operator that comes a calling down the road will think twice if they have to pay more. CC and Infinity are still smarting from their spending spree 6 years ago, and Wall Street's watching them closely.