The Future of Radio

[Uncle Rob]

Just wondering what do you think the future of radio is? Will HD ever catch on? What will AM sound like in 5 years? 10? How about FM? I know Biola University has an internet radio station (i'm sure they're not the only ones), is this the future of radio? Will radio move from the airways to the internet? It could be world wide instead of just local. Would that help or hinder revenue?

Enquiring minds and such.

 

[WTFman]

I could see (nearly) all current radios rendered useless without a government subsidized plug-in box allowing owners to continue to hear upgraded radio stations--that is, if someone can figure out how to make a buck on it and pay off enough Senators to get the job done. It would be hailed as a great leap forward.
Eventually, I could see some sort of chip implant (probably behind the ear) which allows the listener to tune in to a variety of programming by some bit of mental gymnastics. I expect to be dead by then, thank God. When combing one's hair, channels might be scrambled, much to the annoyance of early adaptors.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Just wondering what do you think the future of radio is? Will HD ever catch on? What will AM sound like in 5 years? 10? How about FM? I know Biola University has an internet radio station (i'm sure they're not the only ones), is this the future of radio?

When we get far enough past a time period for the historians to review it for us, we see that great problems called for someone to invent or develop an answer to the problem.

(Go back and review the arrival of the Industrial Revolution, the impact of the steam engine on ships and railroads and factories, etc. etc.

When you live through the era.... before everything shakes out..... you begin to realize that often times some one invents a solution that then has to go hunt for a problem (or create a problem) that needs the solution.

That seems to be where we are with this whole concept of "audio transfer and distribution of human-to-human communication". If you have something important or interesting or entertaining to share with me, I could tune you in on the radio, pull you up on the Internet as you stream, or find some way to acquire (download) a recording of you doing it for use in the playback device of my choice.

Can all three survive? For the good of civilization should all three survive? We have to hope that forms that can function in spite of commercial or political pressures to control the content will not only survive but thrive.

That doesn't answer your question.... but it is a reminder to you that the topic is profound! This is much bigger than some teenager wanting to get the latest music that some promoter wants to sell.

 

[recto101]

I think web radio will live on longer because more people get their music from the web now than AM or FM radio. I think this is so because FM and AM radio revenue in recent years is only from Talk radio.

 

[landtuna]

I think web radio will live on longer because more people get their music from the web now than AM or FM radio. I think this is so because FM and AM radio revenue in recent years is only from Talk radio.

I'm not the world expert on listening habits across the country (assuming we're only talking about the USA) but I really doubt there are more online listeners than terrestrial. True, there are many more online "stations" but doing even a perfunctory poll shows the listener population for each is less than 25 per at any one time. Some of the big ones obviously have more but nothing, I would think, approaching the major OTA radio markets. Some statistics might be desirable here to prove your claim.

As far as revenue.....baloney. Hardly any Internet stations are making significant money. While OTA music radio isn't the printing factory it once was it still does pretty well in most markets of any size. It would be interesting to see just how much revenue is coming in to those Net stations NOT streaming an OTA signal. If you have any data on that by all means let everyone know.

The long term use of the Net by radio listeners will depend in large part on whether it can deliver a quality and reliable signal over mobile at a reasonable (or lower) cost. Right now it isn't competitive due to cost and signal quality issues.

I think I am pretty typical of Net radio listeners. I am willing to put up with occasional signal dropouts and a lower signal quality to hear content not available in my OTA market. OTOH I am not willing to pay very much to do that so any subscription service needs to be fairly inexpensive. With cost comes higher expectations though and that is going to affect mobile Net radio as well. You will begin hearing the same complaints as Sirius and XM have suffered.

I have a 20-year old cousin who uses his iPhone to listen to Net music. AFAIK he never listens to OTA radio. But his folks are paying the $80/month for his unlimited data rate. When he begins paying it out of his own pocket his listening habits might be in for a change. And I know of no one over the age of 40 who does this so its going to be awhile until us old farts die off and allow the Net takeover.

In short, this contest might well have just started. Too many variables right now to pick a winner. My 2 cents of course and YMMV.