There has been much speculation on this board about the future of the New Orleans metro, and how large it will be in the coming years. I have read a few interesting articles in the past few days about that topic, and thought I might share.
First, it should be stated that all this stuff is pure speculation. Nothing like this has ever happened before. Those who have tried to compare the plight of New Orleans to Miami post-Andrew just don’t have their facts together. This situation is unique.
First, the good news… Jefferson Parish is looking pretty good now. The schools are open, and enrollment is hovering around 90% at many schools. So, people are digging in, and getting on with their lives in Jefferson. What we don’t know – and the census bureau is trying to find out – is what the employment situation is like. So, if we extrapolate those numbers, there may be 400,000 people in Jefferson today, though many may be temporary relief and construction workers.
St. Tammany has similar numbers to Jefferson. The damage there is less water and more wind, so permanent reconstruction can move forward quickly. But, many questions remain there, too.
No one is quite sure what the situation is in St. Bernard. But, suffice it to say that it’s bad. St. Bernard’s population was only about 65,000, anyway, and has been slowly dropping for the past few years. I am sure there are not many folks down there, right now.
Orleans Parish? The big question. No one is sure right now how many folks are in the City. We know there can’t be many families, as the New Orleans City Schools will not open until Summer, 2006. I suspect it’s pretty quiet in the Catholic schools, too. Ray Nagin has been saying that he thinks that, in the coming years, the City will come in at about 250,000 people. Is that a good guess? Who knows? But, he may be as close as anyone.
But, even if Mr. Nagin is right, it will take time. As I write, the City has only 1 working emergency room. Charity Hospital is done, and will likely be rebuilt slowly, if at all. Simply put, you cannot run a city with a large poor population without this sort of medical infrastructure. The City’s institutions of higher learning, a huge part of the economy, are in various states of disrepair. UNO has major problems. Again, for a healthy economy, a City has to have a public 4-year university. But, UNO will be rebuilt. It will just take time.
But, the good news is that the tourist infrastructure was largely untouched. The French Quarter is ready to go. Café DuMonde is servin’ those funky donuts. The major hotels can rebuild (and that’s nice; I have stayed at the Ritz-Carlton. Nice place). So, something can be salvaged. Other questions remain about other amenities, though. We all KNOW that the Saints will leave if they can find the door (although the NFL is trying to slow that train). The NBA is an open question (Gosh, why did the Hornets come to NO anyway… other than the fact that Memphis was taken?). Losing major league franchises will hurt both civic pride and national image (assuming national image isn’t trashed already. The world now knows what a cesspool of corruption that place has been for years).
So, what do we have? Let’s try simple math… Let’s say a couple of years down the road we have 450,000 in Jefferson, 250,000 in Orleans, and 200,000 in St. Tammany. That’s 900,000 people. That would bring the market into the mid-50s in rank – something like Birmingham, Rochester, etc. If Mr. Nagin is high, those numbers will drop. Again, it’s all speculation. And, it will take time; if New Orleans is a top-100 now, it’s lucky to be so. And, we don’t know when Arbitron will start surveying again. Heck, they need mailing addresses first.
But, all is not lost. New Orleans can return as an interesting radio market, and Baton Rouge’s ambitions to be a city of 1 million will fade.
It’s all very interesting. I wonder when we will get real numbers.
DE
First, it should be stated that all this stuff is pure speculation. Nothing like this has ever happened before. Those who have tried to compare the plight of New Orleans to Miami post-Andrew just don’t have their facts together. This situation is unique.
First, the good news… Jefferson Parish is looking pretty good now. The schools are open, and enrollment is hovering around 90% at many schools. So, people are digging in, and getting on with their lives in Jefferson. What we don’t know – and the census bureau is trying to find out – is what the employment situation is like. So, if we extrapolate those numbers, there may be 400,000 people in Jefferson today, though many may be temporary relief and construction workers.
St. Tammany has similar numbers to Jefferson. The damage there is less water and more wind, so permanent reconstruction can move forward quickly. But, many questions remain there, too.
No one is quite sure what the situation is in St. Bernard. But, suffice it to say that it’s bad. St. Bernard’s population was only about 65,000, anyway, and has been slowly dropping for the past few years. I am sure there are not many folks down there, right now.
Orleans Parish? The big question. No one is sure right now how many folks are in the City. We know there can’t be many families, as the New Orleans City Schools will not open until Summer, 2006. I suspect it’s pretty quiet in the Catholic schools, too. Ray Nagin has been saying that he thinks that, in the coming years, the City will come in at about 250,000 people. Is that a good guess? Who knows? But, he may be as close as anyone.
But, even if Mr. Nagin is right, it will take time. As I write, the City has only 1 working emergency room. Charity Hospital is done, and will likely be rebuilt slowly, if at all. Simply put, you cannot run a city with a large poor population without this sort of medical infrastructure. The City’s institutions of higher learning, a huge part of the economy, are in various states of disrepair. UNO has major problems. Again, for a healthy economy, a City has to have a public 4-year university. But, UNO will be rebuilt. It will just take time.
But, the good news is that the tourist infrastructure was largely untouched. The French Quarter is ready to go. Café DuMonde is servin’ those funky donuts. The major hotels can rebuild (and that’s nice; I have stayed at the Ritz-Carlton. Nice place). So, something can be salvaged. Other questions remain about other amenities, though. We all KNOW that the Saints will leave if they can find the door (although the NFL is trying to slow that train). The NBA is an open question (Gosh, why did the Hornets come to NO anyway… other than the fact that Memphis was taken?). Losing major league franchises will hurt both civic pride and national image (assuming national image isn’t trashed already. The world now knows what a cesspool of corruption that place has been for years).
So, what do we have? Let’s try simple math… Let’s say a couple of years down the road we have 450,000 in Jefferson, 250,000 in Orleans, and 200,000 in St. Tammany. That’s 900,000 people. That would bring the market into the mid-50s in rank – something like Birmingham, Rochester, etc. If Mr. Nagin is high, those numbers will drop. Again, it’s all speculation. And, it will take time; if New Orleans is a top-100 now, it’s lucky to be so. And, we don’t know when Arbitron will start surveying again. Heck, they need mailing addresses first.
But, all is not lost. New Orleans can return as an interesting radio market, and Baton Rouge’s ambitions to be a city of 1 million will fade.
It’s all very interesting. I wonder when we will get real numbers.
DE