THE NEXT DECADE IN RADIO, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

[Radio55]

HELLO EVERYONE.

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THE RADIO BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO TEN YEARS?

DO YOU THINK VOICE-TRACKING WILL FADE? WILL COMPANIES REALIZE THAT IT IS IN THEIR BEST INTERESTS TO HAVE LIVE AND LOCAL JOCKS ON THE AIR?

WHAT ABOUT MUSIC ON AM RADIO? MOST AM'S ARE TALK BASED, BUT DO YOU THINK OTHER FORMATS COULD RETURN TO THE AM BAND? AN ALL 50'S STATION (ELVIS, RICK NELSON, DO-WOP, CHUCK BERRY), COUNTRY STANDARDS? (JIM REEVES, PATSY CLINE, NOTHING PAST SAY, 1975)?

WHAT ABOUT NEWS ISSUES FOR YOU NEWS TYPES. NOTHING IS MORE FRUSTRATING THAN SEEING A PLUME OF SMOKE, BUT NOTHING ABOUT IT ON THE AIR. ANOTHER USED-TO-BE-LIVE-AND-LOCAL GEM THAT IS PRETTY MUCH GONE NOW. TODAY IT IS JUST READ A COUPLE OF REWRITES OUT OF THE PAPER, DROP IN FOX HEADLINES AND BOOM YOU'RE DONE. KVOO (AM THAT IS) USED TO BE CHAMPS ABOUT COVERING ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING. YOU COULD ABSOLUTELY RELY ON THEM TO HAVE THE STORY. THIS IS PRE-JOURNAL OWNERSHIP.

WHAT ABOUT REGULATION ISSUES. DO YOU THINK THE FCC WILL STEP UP AND RE-REGULATE RADIO (NO POTTY MOUTHS? I'M GOING TO DATE MYSELF HERE, BUT WHEN I STARTED IN THE BUSINESS (1970) EVEN IF YOU SAID "HELL" IT WOULD GIVE YOU PANIC ATTACKS FOR DAYS. IF AN OLD PICKUP WAS PARKED OUTSIDE THE STUDIO, YOU WOULD WONDER IF IT WAS THE FCC MONITORING YOU. PERSONALLY, I THINK SOME OF THE OLD REGS, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING CONTENT WOULD CLEAN UP THE BUSINESS AND RAISE THE STANDARDS OF QUALITY.

JUST FOOD FOR THOUGH IDEAS.

WOULD APPRECIATE YOUR COMMENTS.

ANOTHER THING... WHAT ABOUT JUNKING THE ENDLESS PROMO-IMAGING AND RETURN TO JINGLES TO BRAND AND POSITION YOUR STATION (WLS IN CHICAGO STILL USES THE SAME JINGLE THEMES FROM THE SIXTIES... SOUNDS GREAT, EVEN THOUGHT THEY ARE A TALK STATION NOW)

OK, THIS OUGHT TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP YOU BUSY....

 

[SUPERCASTER]

Here is a link that may provide some answers and trends:
http://www.www.bridgeratings.com/press_031006-digitalprojectionsupdwradio.htm

 

[PTBoardOp94]

According to that Bridge survey, in 2005 people used media for 352.9 hours per week. They project that by 2020 that will become 717 hours per week, or which roughly doubles media use. The population of the United States will increase by 12% in that time.

I'll go out on a limb and say "there's no way". The "average" person would go from listening to "radio-like" services 1 hour per week to 2 hours per week.

To answer the OP...
Radio's future right now seems to hang on whether HD Radio is picked up in large numbers. If it is not, then companies like Clear Channel who have spent several million dollars already will probably tighten the belt even more, leading to more voice tracking and jockless operation.

If HD is picked up and becomes profitable (the second condition seems a bit unlikely at the moment, but people thought the same of FM), then DJs will probably be rather in demand since the number of radio stations wanting them will (potentially) double.

In any case, I don't see live & local "18/6", let alone 24/7 happening anytime soon. The listening public seems content listening to voices from LA and NYC. Advertisers seem equally content. Until discontent begins to appear (particularly from advertisers), radio companies have no incentive to be live and local.

As far as music returning to AM, don't count on it, especially if HD radio takes off.

 

[apco25]

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THE RADIO BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO TEN YEARS?

It will continue to fade. or 2 things, large stations that have a reason still to live will buy out the adjacent signals on struggling stations so they can have better coverage day or night, plus I believe AM will go to TIS, Airport reports, ski reports, casinos, accidents, real estates,and amber alerts. Usually 3-5 minute average loop broadcasts.

WILL COMPANIES REALIZE THAT IT IS IN THEIR BEST INTERESTS TO HAVE LIVE AND LOCAL JOCKS ON THE AIR?

The answer in smaller caps.....No.
Voice tracking will fade when there's no longer a reason to use voice track music formats. The expense of radio shot up higher then real estate. And especially if corporate's in control of owning 10 or more in each market, the word Clear Channel means cost cutting. Plus there's no need for them. You depended on them like they were your friend, because they had access to the hits you didn't, but that's changed of course.

WHAT ABOUT MUSIC ON AM RADIO? MOST AM'S ARE TALK BASED, BUT DO YOU THINK OTHER FORMATS COULD RETURN TO THE AM BAND? AN ALL 50'S STATION (ELVIS, RICK NELSON, DO-WOP, CHUCK BERRY), COUNTRY STANDARDS? (JIM REEVES, PATSY CLINE, NOTHING PAST SAY, 1975)?

Why would you even want to ask that question? If I offered you free MP3 that comes with 1000 free downloads and everything else, or a turntable with a built-in AM/FM in it...would would you choose. or 2007 Honda Accord, or a 1997 Accord. You don'y have to answer , I know what you or anyone else in their right mind would choose.


WHAT ABOUT NEWS ISSUES FOR YOU NEWS TYPES. NOTHING IS MORE FRUSTRATING THAN SEEING A PLUME OF SMOKE, BUT NOTHING ABOUT IT ON THE AIR. ANOTHER USED-TO-BE-LIVE-AND-LOCAL GEM THAT IS PRETTY MUCH GONE NOW. TODAY IT IS JUST READ A COUPLE OF REWRITES OUT OF THE PAPER, DROP IN FOX HEADLINES AND BOOM YOU'RE DONE. KVOO (AM THAT IS) USED TO BE CHAMPS ABOUT COVERING ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING. YOU COULD ABSOLUTELY RELY ON THEM TO HAVE THE STORY. THIS IS PRE-JOURNAL OWNERSHIP.

By a police scanner. I have one on sale it's a trunk tracker etc... Your local televsion channels have expanded local news to a great deal. Like Every half hour between shows, plus expanded in the mornings and afternoons.
Why do you think contemporary stations started dropping afternoon and evening anchors. There's other sources. And it's only going to get better. Plus most of the local news seems to be the weather.

WHAT ABOUT REGULATION ISSUES. DO YOU THINK THE FCC WILL STEP UP AND RE-REGULATE RADIO (NO POTTY MOUTHS? I'M GOING TO DATE MYSELF HERE, BUT WHEN I STARTED IN THE BUSINESS (1970) EVEN IF YOU SAID "HELL" IT WOULD GIVE YOU PANIC ATTACKS FOR DAYS. IF AN OLD PICKUP WAS PARKED OUTSIDE THE STUDIO, YOU WOULD WONDER IF IT WAS THE FCC MONITORING YOU. PERSONALLY, I THINK SOME OF THE OLD REGS, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING CONTENT WOULD CLEAN UP THE BUSINESS AND RAISE THE STANDARDS OF QUALITY

No, most people don't really want to hear it, Howard Stern and a few others were shocking...but these days it's not shocking anymore. Only I'll phrase it, an earsore.
Even if they did, who could afford to purchase a fine coverage AM....the prices shot up so much in the last 15 years...anybody who does know what there doing to bring it back, couldn't touch most of these prices unless the corporates want to take a huge loss on selling them back at 1980's prices.

ANOTHER THING... WHAT ABOUT JUNKING THE ENDLESS PROMO-IMAGING AND RETURN TO JINGLES TO BRAND AND POSITION YOUR STATION (WLS IN CHICAGO STILL USES THE SAME JINGLE THEMES FROM THE SIXTIES... SOUNDS GREAT, EVEN THOUGHT THEY ARE A TALK STATION NOW)


Number one, they ran out of tunes and melodies, and it doesn't matter...todaty's audience doesn't listen for the jingles or promos, they just want music.

 

[MACK184]

As few as 30 years ago, someone wanting music or information had essentially 3 basic choices. The local radio station, one of the 3 network tv affiliates or the local newspaper. Now there are hundreds of choices. As much as long time radio vets would like, NO ONE, is sitting around the radio breathlessly listening for the latest hit, the morning's school closing, or even the morning news. It's still a choice, but it's rarely the first one. For a simple on-line registration, the school district that my son attends will email or text message any school closing info. No radio or TV even needed. With Telecom '96 radio moved from what was essentially mom & pop operations into the same world as Mc Donalds, IBM or AT&T, all with the same business model, if it doesn't make money, it doesn't exist. I'm now starting my 34th year in this business. There's a place for radio, but it's role is diminishing. Technology has moved on. Listeners couldn't care less if the jock can "hit the post". They're not wowed by a jingle..they simply don't care. I had a group of school kids in the radio station this week. Not a single one, said that radio was important to them. Not one. Their music & their info comes from entirely different sources. As an earlier poster said..do you want a 1970 Pontiac, or a 2007 Pontiac? They're both cars, but they're worlds different. It's easy to name CC as the evil villian, but quite simply, radio is now in a much different world, and if we want to work in it, it's time to park the 1970 Pontiac.

 

[Radio55]

Outstanding posts! Very smart insights from all of you. As much as I would like to believe that radio still "matters" to people, it simply does not. You are all correct: too many choices. I notice now I rarely go to my local (Tulsa) stations for breaking news simply because I'm not sure I can rely on them anymore for immediate news. First, I go online. Then, I will check Fox News. If it's local, I still go online first then check the local affiliates. I don't rely on radio for weather coverage here (Oklahoma) at all anymore. I go to TV. I knew radio was pretty much over one Sunday when I came to the station to get ready for a remote. There was NO ONE in the building. Radio used to be so great. I remember WAITING TWO AND A HALF HOURS for the jock on KAKC (a Huge 50 share station in the 60s'... an absolute killer!) to play Hey Jude for the first time. Can you imagine someone waiting that long to hear a new song today? Never would happen. Now if I want a song, it's off to iTunes I go. Thanks everyone for your posts. Great stuff!

 

[wgliradio]

Radio will have to expand on how it delivers content and think outside of the limitations of the 88-108 & 540-1700 analog broadcast band (that includes digital sidebands carried by analog carrier).

Radio has a head start with some good brand names. The idea is to deliver that where the listeners are. If radio is to stay hip, it has to compete WITHIN emerging media and not from the outside (HD Radio).

HD radio is a band-aid... a bridge to the next step. The most important thing is not HD, it's the internet, it's content on demand. If you're not on the internet, you'll be sorry.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Content is King. The Internet - especially via high-speed, wide-area wireless, will be the means of delivery in high-density population areas.

Local radio stations are poised to provide live and local content for both information and entertainment. Smart broadcasters are already streaming, and preparing to offer both additional streams and podcasts. Podcasts will be important for self-contained shows, newscasts, and information packages. Live and local content like weather and traffic, along with talented personalities who add value to music presentations, will still have a place.

Today's youngsters who declare radio "dead" will be listening to that content because kids, jobs, and the responsibilities of the "adult" world will limit the time they have to search out, download, and program their own infotainment.

As it has before, radio won't die, it will adapt. It may require that some large corporate entities go into the dumper, and some stockholders lose money. The Internet will open new doors to talented people who feel that they have something unique to offer to members of their own generation. As it becomes easier to program your favorite streams into a portable listening device, the iPod will have new competition.

 

[apco25]

You said it correctly....even the IPOD is going to have competition. But not from radio...but Cell phones, EVDO, etc. Yes, if you noticed, even TV networks have gone to a schedule like Radio. Look at Saturday night, it's giveaway night of movies , college football, and magazine shows along with network reruns, Friday nights......they start with the fall schedule , and usually when the new shows fail, they move the other shows from the other nights in it's place that haven't been doing all that great in it's previous spots. Now you have last chance Friday's. Again multi media entertainment has taken over weekends.


Today's youngsters who declare radio "dead" will be listening to that content because kids, jobs, and the responsibilities of the "adult" world will limit the time they have to search out, download, and program their own infotainment.

>>>>That problem has been solved. There are already units and software out that alleviate this problem. Nothing to download the second time, you can get around from booting your computer everytime, and the only time they need their radio is to use an open frequency for a receiver for their wireless broadcast or access point in someway, like a C Crane or Belkin transmitter for the car or home. And yes, one day there will be plent yof open frequencies.

 

[radionut925]

Content is King. The Internet - especially via high-speed, wide-area wireless, will be the means of delivery in high-density population areas.

Local radio stations are poised to provide live and local content for both information and entertainment. Smart broadcasters are already streaming, and preparing to offer both additional streams and podcasts. Podcasts will be important for self-contained shows, newscasts, and information packages. Live and local content like weather and traffic, along with talented personalities who add value to music presentations, will still have a place.

Today's youngsters who declare radio "dead" will be listening to that content because kids, jobs, and the responsibilities of the "adult" world will limit the time they have to search out, download, and program their own infotainment.

As it has before, radio won't die, it will adapt. It may require that some large corporate entities go into the dumper, and some stockholders lose money. The Internet will open new doors to talented people who feel that they have something unique to offer to members of their own generation. As it becomes easier to program your favorite streams into a portable listening device, the iPod will have new competition.

Agreed. The radio stations that stick around in some form or another in the years to come must have a local commitment. A station can't just hook itself up to a computer and/or a satellite dish, and expect listeners to just tune in anytime. Terrestrial radio must utilize its greatest strengths, being live, local, and free. Those strengths can't be utilized when a stations rely almost entirely on machines 24/7, or if corporate headquarters is constantly cutting jobs, and all but eliminating opportunities for newcomers to enter the radio industry.