The NEXT Seattle Music Format

[djdan]

For years this Board talked about the need for a second Country station and now we have one and it is doing quite well in its launch. TIme will tell if it can win. So what is the next format opportunity? I have noticed that most major markets have two Country stations that do well and have two soft AC stations. One is more soft gold based, the other a little more contemporary. The Soft AC in New York is now the number one billing station in America, so it would make sense that someone will challenge KRWM. When KLSY was soft AC it did VERY well against its sister station KRWM. A new soft AC would take audience from KRWM, KCMS and KWJZ. Add some personality in the morning and you could have a real contender. Just a thought as people ponder what might happen at KNDD, KBKS, JACK, KPLZ and KBSG. My bet is KBKS and KPLZ stay in their formats since they make so much money. KNDD? JACK? From a sales point of view there are more 25-54 female buys than 25-54 male buys these days. (Adult buys still top demand on the sales front) Take a look at KRWM's demo numbers, they were number one last book. Two Soft AC stations and a HOT/AC are typical in many major markets. KRWM is number one 25-54, time for a new challenger?

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Strike KBKS from your list. They are on fire with a new PD. The music is already more in touch and focused on knocking off KUBE. Soft AC is a cheap format and KRWM could easily be knocked off with a conservative challenger. Wouldn't it make sense for STAR to move this way? The morning show is older and it wouldn't be a huge move for them. KBKS will grab most of their HOT/AC audience anyway. I would bet that KNDD flips to this format, because it would not affect any of the other stations in the cluster, would be cheap to run and knocks off a 25-54 competitor in KRWM. They are having great success blowing apart KMPS and could easily do the same to KRWM. Forget about JACK and KBKS, both are in the game for the long run!!! Most intelligent post I've seen from a sales guy trying to be a programmer.

 

[dan_greenberg1500]

I agree that KNDD is the one people are watching now for any changes, however I don't see them flipping but instead maybe tweaking their direction to go after an older demo and maybe some female friendly alt-rock to get some numbers in that area. I still think a classic alternative format could fly if done right, now that they are the only alt rocker in town. They were kicking K-Rock's butt when they opened up their library and focused more on golds and less on the newer stuff. Once K-Rock flipped, they completely abandoned that and their numbers have suffered ever since. I can't see them going to talk because if the format was on fire, the buzz would still be around and they just would have gotten rid of Robin and Maynard, eventually using the 107.7 frequency for the Wolf. If they do decide to take another stab at talk, they need to decide quick, because I think if Jack continues to decline over the next few books, we might see a Free-FM here in Seattle, despite it's dismal ratings around the country.

 

[cheffo200]

KROQ in L.A. is the highest biller in the country now. Lite FM in NY is 2nd.

 

[AQH]

Strike KBKS from your list. They are on fire with a new PD. The music is already more in touch and focused on knocking off KUBE. Soft AC is a cheap format and KRWM could easily be knocked off with a conservative challenger. Wouldn't it make sense for STAR to move this way? The morning show is older and it wouldn't be a huge move for them. KBKS will grab most of their HOT/AC audience anyway. I would bet that KNDD flips to this format, because it would not affect any of the other stations in the cluster, would be cheap to run and knocks off a 25-54 competitor in KRWM. They are having great success blowing apart KMPS and could easily do the same to KRWM. Forget about JACK and KBKS, both are in the game for the long run!!! Most intelligent post I've seen from a sales guy trying to be a programmer.

If you truly believe that KBKS will grab Star's HOT AC audience by being a KUBE knockoff, you've really gotta lay off the turpentine sniffing.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

So what is the next format opportunity?

I think there are several answers to your question ... but I suspect given the buying history that one caveat in the question is "...that advertisers will BUY". I think it will be interesting to measure how much active rock stations listening patterns change without someone like Howard -- certainly I don't think music-only active rock stations would have a chance given the media competition with devices, etc. So question is if you're KNDD do you try to keep the listeners you can or do you surrender to the change of habits and try to get something on the air that will build a following with a DIFFERENT demographic (takes time to build brand ... sooner you start sooner you have a chance of paying off).We have learned that Hot AC not doing well in this market if more than one ... but opportunity to challenge Soft AC with almost dead-on adjacent frequency (not much between 106.9 and 107.7) would be an interesting battle; and as others pointed out, would keep Entercom from stepping on its own sisters the way Sandusky kept doing by being nothing but "adult-friendly" cluster.Formats that appeal to older people would do well ... but no one probably wants to buy them. Appealing to young I don't think makes sense because of the tendency to abandon radio by those under about 25. My bias is STILL toward a good adult-sounding "full service" on FM ... something that doesn't TRY to win by being a jukebox, that goes after local focus, plays enough music so it's not wall-to-wall talk; but uses assets from an existing news operation. So best candidates for something along those lines would be Fisher (not likely since STAR still a nice cash cow as-is) or Entercom (but I don't think they'd try it ... although for years I was wishing they would use 100.7 as a "KIRO-FM" which would leverage the news assets but include personality and a few tunes -- was hoping it would be Seattle's "Z100" where moniker here would be different than Portland or NYC). Would be a great opportunity if indeed 107.7 becomes something else -- but I think for that kind of format an extreme dial position would NOT be a desirable variable to include. A 107+ dial position, for example, could do well doing modern standards (like the denver station playing Buble, etc.) ... and try to go against a cross of both WARM and Smooth Jazz ... and it would definitely not hurt KISW; but might affect KIRO audience).My point is there are probably MANY opportunities but, until we can drop the 4-book average, drop the bias of 25-54, drop the "never heard THAT in any other city" kinds of biases .... why waste our creativity or our breath!!!? It's always going to come down to "choose one from the list of ten proven, acceptable formats" -- and I think that has a LOT to do with what has chased so many people away from the dial altogether.

 

[AQH]

My point is there are probably MANY opportunities but, until we can drop the 4-book average, drop the bias of 25-54, drop the "never heard THAT in any other city" kinds of biases .... why waste our creativity or our breath!!!? It's always going to come down to "choose one from the list of ten proven, acceptable formats" -- and I think that has a LOT to do with what has chased so many people away from the dial altogether.

Not sure I have heard of any other markets having the 'Movin" format in place. Gotta give Marc Kaye credit for going after that.I don't think there's anything wrong with stations going after some piece of the 25-54 demo. Stations rarely go specifically after the entire demo, ones that lead 25-54 just happen to do well in who they are going after enough to win the 25-54.I know I am probably reinforcing your point more than anything, but I don't think there's anything wrong with stations trying to make a buck.Telecom 1996 has more to do with a stations' format than simply 25-54.

 

[jdweaver]

Adults 25-54 is a statistical anomoly know only to the ad biz folks. Someone 54 was born in 1951 - marveled at Sputnick, witnessed the race to the moon, civil rights and free sex. A 25 year old was born during the Reagan administration, thinks Watergate is a cool bar on Capital Hill and thought Tiffany rocked! Fact remains LBB's proposed wide based AC format might work that broadly. Seems to me the music would have to range from Classic Rock to country. Too risky, I'd say for mainstream companies. On HD or a rim-shot signal it might be easier to do...OH yeh...who's going to pay for the talent, jingles and support staff? That's a non-starter.

 

[boaz]

It would be very entertaining to see...... an Entercom AC on the dial so close to 106.9. IF done the right way ther is some real room to go after KWRM. The $ is being spent on MOViN in a new direction there so how much support could they offer?? As well as looking to hire a PD or does the MD step into the PD chair as was the pattern at 925 ? It would put some pressure on the Sandusky crew to protect their cash cow station while at the same time trying to launch and brand their new "BLACK JACK" 925 (lol.... as someone called it ! ) The 25-54 females are so coveted by sales and advertisers that it might be a smart move to let go of the "alternative" moniker that was The End and launch an AC go jockless for sometime save $ and brand the heck out of it then bring on some talent that knows the format, the market and see if you can't cut into WARMS's #'sEntercom has allready proven they can do this the right way and cut into a heritage station.....taking some Cume, AQH, and TSL and offer another option to the clients / advertisers and listeners.......

 

[boaz]

In all but two- not counting Seattle- markets that Entercom works in they have AC's or HOT AC's. One of the best being ALICE in Denver who just lost their PD to Star in LA. Alice in Denver is a good station. PDX - Entercom has 2 - Buzz and a Jack-off type Charlie - Indy it's 107.9 The Track - KC it's 98.1 KUDL - others KFBZ, WRVR,WCMG,WFEZ.....Not saying they are going to flip 1077 BUT it wouldn't surprise me.....how about YOU :-\

 

[dan_greenberg1500]

The station in Denver is a good one but I don't see them going in that direction. The soft ac option would definitely allow them to pick away at Warm's numbers, much like what the Wolf is doing to KMPS. I've got to agree with another poster on a recent topic though in which he/she said that they should go back to a heavy classic alternative playlist instead of focusing on all the newer music out there that is targetted towards the younger people. Those are the listeners who are most likely going to get their music from other sources. If I remember correctly, last year, K-Rock had jumped from a 1.2 to a 2.2 in their last book and the End was at a 2.7 playing mainly classics and spent less time spinning new bands. Surely with only one alt rocker in town, those numbers have got to indicate that that format can be successful and target older listeners more appealing to advertisers. It certainly doesn't appear that the direction the End has taken now seems to be working.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

I know I am probably reinforcing your point more than anything, but I don't think there's anything wrong with stations trying to make a buck....Telecom 1996 has more to do with a stations' format than simply 25-54.

Agree with you ... wasn't bemoaning the goal of making $$; but the lack of creativity in how stations approach programming. HOPE Movin' survives for that reason (though I'm not a huge fan of the selections...am glad they're giving it a shot). Have brought up example before of when KJR was trying to feel their way as 70's gold with some personality ... it had some great potential and was getting the protection of CChannel regional. CChannel changed players and protection went away ... format adjusted into something more "safe", etc. MAY still have been the right thing to do....my perception was someone came in and just said "enough already" and leaned toward the "proven" formats.Since the thread was "what should a station do" I found it easy to argue that there are probably creative options available; but many will get ruled out because they aren't "mainstream" by plunking into the rules of 4-book, 25-54, etc.I'm always happy when a station makes $$ because it means it's going to survive without throwing out baby, etc. BUT on that front I do get frustrated when greed becomes so strong that a cluster wants to own ALL the top positions (nothing wrong with it...just frustrating) because under that mindset you can't usually accept "flanker" stations that are intended to serve a demographic subset and their goal is simply to break even or do SOME positive cashflow.